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I don't follow this line of thinking at all. What's the argument here? That Chinese can't learn how to manage certain things? That they can't improve their educ

I don't follow this line of thinking at all. What's the argument here? That Chinese can't learn how to manage certain things? That they can't improve their educational system? Does anyone seriously think this is true? And then to end with, well even if they do, we can just import their robots. Ok.. then wouldn't they "own next-generation manufacturing" if they are the ones making the tools, pushing what machines are capable of, etc. I mean, does the writer really think we can dominate next-gen manufacturing if we don't even make the tools? What's our competitive advantage then?

agentgt 10y ago
I have to agree. The other thing the article fails to mention is how China has invested heavily in other resource production like rare earth metals which are needed for robots and just about all modern things. They could price gouge us at any moment and they know it. And when they do it will take us forever to build these mines / plants. That's the thing the article also gets wrong. It takes time and money to keep up and to even copy (robots). I really can't agree with much in the article.
- seanmcdirmid 10y ago
  They haven't invested in rare earth production so much as they have sacrificed the environment significantly for it. The article is bunk, but I totally expect China to be a barren toxic wasteland if they don't change their export-oriented development philosophy (and they haven't, inspite of what Xi is saying these days).
- Animats 10y ago
  "They could price gouge us at any moment and they know it. And when they do it will take us forever to build these mines / plants." They tried. It didn't work. Molycorp got the Mountain Pass rare earth mine in California going again, with pollution controls that satisfied even the Sierra Club. Another company got a mine going in Australia. Techniques were developed to reduce rare earth consumption for motors. Rare earth demand dropped. Price crashed. China gave up on restricting exports. Molycorp went bankrupt, but the Mountain Pass mine is still there, although not running. It's for sale. Want to buy the world's most advanced rare earths mine?
  - ahartman00 10y ago
    in addition to this, the wto also ruled that their export controls were in violation of trade rules for laymen: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-06/china-scraps-rare-earth-export-controls-after-losing-wto-appeal http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-06/china-scra... not for the faint of heart: https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/cases_e/ds431_e.htm https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/cases_e/ds431_e...
aub3bhat 10y ago
Also the last straw argument "Chinese can't innovate/be bold because only Liberal arts degree holders can do that." While conveniently forgetting that current leading company in Drones DJI is a Chinese company and they brilliantly managed to build their own Tech industry. Frankly American journalists are deluding themselves if they assume that all asians are like what they chose to show in Hollywood (where they are portrayed as lacking communication skills) and as if innovation is a western monopoly.
- coliveira 10y ago
  Also, most innovation in the US is done by engineers and scientists, people who are not versed in liberal arts.
  - deleted 10y ago
    [deleted]
- mahranch 10y ago
  China can't be innovative because they lack the cultural foundation for it. Innovation requires creativity, critical thinking, outside the box thinking, etc etc etc... All things which China's PRC sees as a threat to their power so they squash it down. They want flesh robots, not revolutions. So they have to steal IPs to be competitive. Whether it's plans for the space shuttle or the latest iPhone, China will steal literally anything with virtually no shame. Unfortunately, they don't see the side-effect of this IP theft. That is, it reduces innovation even more. When you shortcut your way to the top (or in this case, the middle), you don't have that same foundation for innovation. A huge part of innovation is the process itself -- it lays the foundation for future innovations. A framework or path. That foundation is just as, if not more important that the innovation itself. And that's what China is missing out on. They're being left behind while IP theft is going to get harder and harder for them as countries/businesses wise-up.
  - kalleboo 10y ago
    Weren't people saying the same thing about the Japanese 30 years ago?
Indigofreak 10y ago
I think the only strong argument in that article is that no one wants to ship the materials to China, only to have to ship them back. The only thing that China can offer is better manufacturing, which at present it does not have.
Houshalter 10y ago
I think the argument goes that the main reason manufacturing moved overseas was because of cheaper labor. When robots take over, that advantage disappears. It's not that China can't make robots, it's that they don't have as big an advantage over other countries anymore.
- mark-r 10y ago
  They've traded one advantage for another. Now that they're doing most of the world's large-scale manufacturing, they have the manufacturing expertise. That's a huge advantage that's not accounted for in the article.
hourislate 10y ago
The Chinese can certainly learn how to do things but it takes time and can be a head ache for customers. If you can bare with that and the financial impact they will eventually get there. A problem I've had dealing with Chinese Factories (last 15 years) is that you never really get to the point where your relationship becomes a partnership. They will always try to to get more out of you and you have to be careful when asking for better pricing because they might agree but quality will suffer and they will not hesitate to cut corners. There is also the issue of financially awarding people in the factories for good cooperation ;) but I suppose that is a given to insure things run smoothly.
- blihp 10y ago
  But is that really surprising? Of course they don't view it as a partnership: it isn't and they know it. China provides you with cheap manufacturing/labor while you fund their development of the infrastructure necessary to take your business from you at the end of the transaction. It should be no surprise that they're taking you for as much of a ride as they can until then. It's smart business on their part, not so smart on ours.
  - hourislate 10y ago
    You're not wrong but that is why the company is planning to end all relationships with China and start production in Mexico. When Mexican production is up to speed and perfect the rug will come out from under our Chinese factories. I have a feeling they are not going to be very happy.
cft 10y ago
> What's our competitive advantage then? Probably selling Chinese made goods on Amazon? Or maybe Pokemon Go? Since Bezos bought Washington Post, it really went berserk in my opinion.
gscott 10y ago
There are a lot of problems with the article as you say. China just bought an advanced robot making company in Germany and certainly will import all of that knowledge to China. Also Amazon is looking to make transport cheaper from China to the USA but it is already about $1k per container so it is very cheap to import to the USA. Also Alibaba is working with Chinese companies to come up with their own versions of products they make for American companies. Anyway you look at it, China will dominate the next 100 years because they are investing quickly in their own capability at all levels while also stealing/making/buying/implementing technology quickly while American's are drifting aimlessly for the most part.

agentgt 10y ago

I have to agree. The other thing the article fails to mention is how China has invested heavily in other resource production like rare earth metals which are needed for robots and just about all modern things. They could price gouge us at any moment and they know it. And when they do it will take us forever to build these mines / plants. That's the thing the article also gets wrong. It takes time and money to keep up and to even copy (robots). I really can't agree with much in the article.

seanmcdirmid 10y ago
They haven't invested in rare earth production so much as they have sacrificed the environment significantly for it. The article is bunk, but I totally expect China to be a barren toxic wasteland if they don't change their export-oriented development philosophy (and they haven't, inspite of what Xi is saying these days).
Animats 10y ago
"They could price gouge us at any moment and they know it. And when they do it will take us forever to build these mines / plants." They tried. It didn't work. Molycorp got the Mountain Pass rare earth mine in California going again, with pollution controls that satisfied even the Sierra Club. Another company got a mine going in Australia. Techniques were developed to reduce rare earth consumption for motors. Rare earth demand dropped. Price crashed. China gave up on restricting exports. Molycorp went bankrupt, but the Mountain Pass mine is still there, although not running. It's for sale. Want to buy the world's most advanced rare earths mine?
- ahartman00 10y ago
  in addition to this, the wto also ruled that their export controls were in violation of trade rules for laymen: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-06/china-scraps-rare-earth-export-controls-after-losing-wto-appeal http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-06/china-scra... not for the faint of heart: https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/cases_e/ds431_e.htm https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/dispu_e/cases_e/ds431_e...

aub3bhat 10y ago

Also the last straw argument "Chinese can't innovate/be bold because only Liberal arts degree holders can do that." While conveniently forgetting that current leading company in Drones DJI is a Chinese company and they brilliantly managed to build their own Tech industry. Frankly American journalists are deluding themselves if they assume that all asians are like what they chose to show in Hollywood (where they are portrayed as lacking communication skills) and as if innovation is a western monopoly.

coliveira 10y ago
Also, most innovation in the US is done by engineers and scientists, people who are not versed in liberal arts.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
mahranch 10y ago
China can't be innovative because they lack the cultural foundation for it. Innovation requires creativity, critical thinking, outside the box thinking, etc etc etc... All things which China's PRC sees as a threat to their power so they squash it down. They want flesh robots, not revolutions. So they have to steal IPs to be competitive. Whether it's plans for the space shuttle or the latest iPhone, China will steal literally anything with virtually no shame. Unfortunately, they don't see the side-effect of this IP theft. That is, it reduces innovation even more. When you shortcut your way to the top (or in this case, the middle), you don't have that same foundation for innovation. A huge part of innovation is the process itself -- it lays the foundation for future innovations. A framework or path. That foundation is just as, if not more important that the innovation itself. And that's what China is missing out on. They're being left behind while IP theft is going to get harder and harder for them as countries/businesses wise-up.
- kalleboo 10y ago
  Weren't people saying the same thing about the Japanese 30 years ago?

Indigofreak 10y ago

I think the only strong argument in that article is that no one wants to ship the materials to China, only to have to ship them back. The only thing that China can offer is better manufacturing, which at present it does not have.

Houshalter 10y ago

I think the argument goes that the main reason manufacturing moved overseas was because of cheaper labor. When robots take over, that advantage disappears. It's not that China can't make robots, it's that they don't have as big an advantage over other countries anymore.

mark-r 10y ago
They've traded one advantage for another. Now that they're doing most of the world's large-scale manufacturing, they have the manufacturing expertise. That's a huge advantage that's not accounted for in the article.

hourislate 10y ago

The Chinese can certainly learn how to do things but it takes time and can be a head ache for customers. If you can bare with that and the financial impact they will eventually get there. A problem I've had dealing with Chinese Factories (last 15 years) is that you never really get to the point where your relationship becomes a partnership. They will always try to to get more out of you and you have to be careful when asking for better pricing because they might agree but quality will suffer and they will not hesitate to cut corners. There is also the issue of financially awarding people in the factories for good cooperation ;) but I suppose that is a given to insure things run smoothly.

blihp 10y ago
But is that really surprising? Of course they don't view it as a partnership: it isn't and they know it. China provides you with cheap manufacturing/labor while you fund their development of the infrastructure necessary to take your business from you at the end of the transaction. It should be no surprise that they're taking you for as much of a ride as they can until then. It's smart business on their part, not so smart on ours.
- hourislate 10y ago
  You're not wrong but that is why the company is planning to end all relationships with China and start production in Mexico. When Mexican production is up to speed and perfect the rug will come out from under our Chinese factories. I have a feeling they are not going to be very happy.

cft 10y ago

> What's our competitive advantage then? Probably selling Chinese made goods on Amazon? Or maybe Pokemon Go? Since Bezos bought Washington Post, it really went berserk in my opinion.

gscott 10y ago

There are a lot of problems with the article as you say. China just bought an advanced robot making company in Germany and certainly will import all of that knowledge to China. Also Amazon is looking to make transport cheaper from China to the USA but it is already about $1k per container so it is very cheap to import to the USA. Also Alibaba is working with Chinese companies to come up with their own versions of products they make for American companies. Anyway you look at it, China will dominate the next 100 years because they are investing quickly in their own capability at all levels while also stealing/making/buying/implementing technology quickly while American's are drifting aimlessly for the most part.