6 ms·

Im not so sure of that. The hardest part of trucking is the first 1% of the trip and the last 1% of the trip. I envision that the robotic trucks will leave and

by epa 10y ago

Im not so sure of that. The hardest part of trucking is the first 1% of the trip and the last 1% of the trip. I envision that the robotic trucks will leave and enter into designated facilities at the outskirts of town, from there a trucker can take the truck to the client to unload and sign the paper work, bring it back and set it on its new course. I think it will allow truckers a more specialized role of client service and trickier city driving, and to work in one city every day, instead of travelling.

wp1 10y ago
This is how harbors work. Ports employee pilots, who board ships, get them through busy waterways, and dock them. The regular crew on a large ship just sits back when coming into port.
- nradov 10y ago
  The regular crew doesn't sit back at all. They are busier than ever, it's just that they take orders from the pilot instead of a regular ship's officer for a few hours.
- bfuller 10y ago
  Those port pilot jobs are notoriously well paying as well as difficult to secure. Sure there will be more hubs than there are ports, but it doesn't look good for truckers. Not saying you were arguing any different op, just furthering the points made above and below.
samastur 10y ago
And how many truckers do you think this job would need compared to now? It's hard to imagine that not a lot fewer unless you expect that number of trucks on roads would rise by some multiple of now.
- kbenson 10y ago
  You may well be right, but that doesn't change the fact that it would justify the original statement regarding truckers being paid more. The part that was left out of the original statement was demand for truck drivers, which is generally accepted will drop with increased automation. It's true in the same way that we can say that "factory workers" in the US get paid much more than they used to. This is because they are more likely to be technicians now, who service the robotic assembly line. The nature of the job has changed with automation, and truck driving will be similar.
  - robotresearcher 10y ago
    With 98% of truckers suddenly on the job market, you think trucker pay would rise? The last-mile drivers aren't debugging robot trucks. In the worst case the robot truck just turns back into a regular truck. No new skills required for a trucker.
    - kbenson 10y ago
      If we assume navigating a city is the harder part of trucking (and I believe that, I've seen some crazy trucking maneuvers on city streets), and that truckers of the future are going to be largely navigating the city over and over, then we are quickly going to see which truckers can do that well without problems. The number of truckers available on the market will increase, but the job will be fundamentally different in the composition of skills required. It's possible that those that can quickly and reliably navigate city roads without problem will rise to the top and be able to command higher wages. It's not guaranteed and it wouldn't be immediate, but I'm not sure it's unlikely.
- BurningFrog 10y ago
  The number of trucks would absolutely rise as they get cheaper to drive. But hardly enough to keep all current drivers employed.
  - jonknee 10y ago
    I don't think the number would rise, at least not for a long time. Trucks would be utilized a lot more hours per day, which is what matters. There are currently pretty strict rules for how many hours a driver can work, but if you can sleep while the truck drives itself all of a sudden you have an asset that can work nearly 24/7.
    - dpark 10y ago
      More hours per day equates to more trucks total. If the transit between San Fransisco and Nashville suddenly takes half as long, we can reasonably assume that the number of trucks between San Francisco and Nashville will rise (maybe not double, but certainly a lot, and with reduced costs, who knows, maybe double or more).
    - BurningFrog 10y ago
      When something becomes cheaper, demand always increases. By how much varies (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elasticity_(economics) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elasticity_(economics)) but not that it happens.
      - jonknee 10y ago
        Obviously, but by working more hours a day supply increases even though there aren't more trucks. The same thing will happen with large pools of shared autonomous cars--each car doing more work per day even though there are less cars.
        BurningFrog 10y ago
        OK, we're talking about slightly different things. I'm talking about more "truck miles" being produced, while you're talking about the absolute number of trucks. Now that we understand each other, there isn't much left to argue about :)
- bfuller 10y ago
  It is of course possible that this technology could influence a rise in the number of trucks by creating new opportunities through a lower cost and more efficient infrastructure. But obviously I am not smart enough to back it up with anything or I would probably be getting acquired by Uber too.
jdoliner 10y ago
Sounds like that would greatly decrease the demand for drivers. Since they're now not needed for 99% of the trip. And also greatly increase the supply of labor. Since trucking no longer entails travel and people can live close to their families. Both things that generally lead to decrease in price.
dragonwriter 10y ago
So, eliminating 98% of the work. Which, even with halving the per-trucker hours, means eliminating 96% of the truckers. I'd call that putting truckers out of work...

by epa 10y ago

wp1 10y ago

This is how harbors work. Ports employee pilots, who board ships, get them through busy waterways, and dock them. The regular crew on a large ship just sits back when coming into port.

nradov 10y ago
The regular crew doesn't sit back at all. They are busier than ever, it's just that they take orders from the pilot instead of a regular ship's officer for a few hours.
bfuller 10y ago
Those port pilot jobs are notoriously well paying as well as difficult to secure. Sure there will be more hubs than there are ports, but it doesn't look good for truckers. Not saying you were arguing any different op, just furthering the points made above and below.

samastur 10y ago

And how many truckers do you think this job would need compared to now? It's hard to imagine that not a lot fewer unless you expect that number of trucks on roads would rise by some multiple of now.

kbenson 10y ago
You may well be right, but that doesn't change the fact that it would justify the original statement regarding truckers being paid more. The part that was left out of the original statement was demand for truck drivers, which is generally accepted will drop with increased automation. It's true in the same way that we can say that "factory workers" in the US get paid much more than they used to. This is because they are more likely to be technicians now, who service the robotic assembly line. The nature of the job has changed with automation, and truck driving will be similar.
- robotresearcher 10y ago
  With 98% of truckers suddenly on the job market, you think trucker pay would rise? The last-mile drivers aren't debugging robot trucks. In the worst case the robot truck just turns back into a regular truck. No new skills required for a trucker.
  - kbenson 10y ago
    If we assume navigating a city is the harder part of trucking (and I believe that, I've seen some crazy trucking maneuvers on city streets), and that truckers of the future are going to be largely navigating the city over and over, then we are quickly going to see which truckers can do that well without problems. The number of truckers available on the market will increase, but the job will be fundamentally different in the composition of skills required. It's possible that those that can quickly and reliably navigate city roads without problem will rise to the top and be able to command higher wages. It's not guaranteed and it wouldn't be immediate, but I'm not sure it's unlikely.
BurningFrog 10y ago
The number of trucks would absolutely rise as they get cheaper to drive. But hardly enough to keep all current drivers employed.
- jonknee 10y ago
  I don't think the number would rise, at least not for a long time. Trucks would be utilized a lot more hours per day, which is what matters. There are currently pretty strict rules for how many hours a driver can work, but if you can sleep while the truck drives itself all of a sudden you have an asset that can work nearly 24/7.
  - dpark 10y ago
    More hours per day equates to more trucks total. If the transit between San Fransisco and Nashville suddenly takes half as long, we can reasonably assume that the number of trucks between San Francisco and Nashville will rise (maybe not double, but certainly a lot, and with reduced costs, who knows, maybe double or more).
  - BurningFrog 10y ago
    When something becomes cheaper, demand always increases. By how much varies (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elasticity_(economics) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elasticity_(economics)) but not that it happens.
    - jonknee 10y ago
      Obviously, but by working more hours a day supply increases even though there aren't more trucks. The same thing will happen with large pools of shared autonomous cars--each car doing more work per day even though there are less cars.
      - BurningFrog 10y ago
        OK, we're talking about slightly different things. I'm talking about more "truck miles" being produced, while you're talking about the absolute number of trucks. Now that we understand each other, there isn't much left to argue about :)
bfuller 10y ago
It is of course possible that this technology could influence a rise in the number of trucks by creating new opportunities through a lower cost and more efficient infrastructure. But obviously I am not smart enough to back it up with anything or I would probably be getting acquired by Uber too.

jdoliner 10y ago

Sounds like that would greatly decrease the demand for drivers. Since they're now not needed for 99% of the trip. And also greatly increase the supply of labor. Since trucking no longer entails travel and people can live close to their families. Both things that generally lead to decrease in price.

dragonwriter 10y ago

So, eliminating 98% of the work. Which, even with halving the per-trucker hours, means eliminating 96% of the truckers. I'd call that putting truckers out of work...