5 ms·

I'd love the hear their justification for why this is going to lead to truckers getting paid more...

by jdoliner 10y ago

echelon 10y ago
It's going to put them all out of work, eventually. Similar to training your replacement.
- epa 10y ago
  Im not so sure of that. The hardest part of trucking is the first 1% of the trip and the last 1% of the trip. I envision that the robotic trucks will leave and enter into designated facilities at the outskirts of town, from there a trucker can take the truck to the client to unload and sign the paper work, bring it back and set it on its new course. I think it will allow truckers a more specialized role of client service and trickier city driving, and to work in one city every day, instead of travelling.
  - wp1 10y ago
    This is how harbors work. Ports employee pilots, who board ships, get them through busy waterways, and dock them. The regular crew on a large ship just sits back when coming into port.
    - nradov 10y ago
      The regular crew doesn't sit back at all. They are busier than ever, it's just that they take orders from the pilot instead of a regular ship's officer for a few hours.
    - bfuller 10y ago
      Those port pilot jobs are notoriously well paying as well as difficult to secure. Sure there will be more hubs than there are ports, but it doesn't look good for truckers. Not saying you were arguing any different op, just furthering the points made above and below.
  - samastur 10y ago
    And how many truckers do you think this job would need compared to now? It's hard to imagine that not a lot fewer unless you expect that number of trucks on roads would rise by some multiple of now.
    - kbenson 10y ago
      You may well be right, but that doesn't change the fact that it would justify the original statement regarding truckers being paid more. The part that was left out of the original statement was demand for truck drivers, which is generally accepted will drop with increased automation. It's true in the same way that we can say that "factory workers" in the US get paid much more than they used to. This is because they are more likely to be technicians now, who service the robotic assembly line. The nature of the job has changed with automation, and truck driving will be similar.
      - robotresearcher 10y ago
        With 98% of truckers suddenly on the job market, you think trucker pay would rise? The last-mile drivers aren't debugging robot trucks. In the worst case the robot truck just turns back into a regular truck. No new skills required for a trucker.
        kbenson 10y ago
        If we assume navigating a city is the harder part of trucking (and I believe that, I've seen some crazy trucking maneuvers on city streets), and that truckers of the future are going to be largely navigating the city over and over, then we are quickly going to see which truckers can do that well without problems. The number of truckers available on the market will increase, but the job will be fundamentally different in the composition of skills required. It's possible that those that can quickly and reliably navigate city roads without problem will rise to the top and be able to command higher wages. It's not guaranteed and it wouldn't be immediate, but I'm not sure it's unlikely.
    - BurningFrog 10y ago
  - jdoliner 10y ago
    Sounds like that would greatly decrease the demand for drivers. Since they're now not needed for 99% of the trip. And also greatly increase the supply of labor. Since trucking no longer entails travel and people can live close to their families. Both things that generally lead to decrease in price.
  - dragonwriter 10y ago
    So, eliminating 98% of the work. Which, even with halving the per-trucker hours, means eliminating 96% of the truckers. I'd call that putting truckers out of work...
- protomyth 10y ago
  That would be a huge hit to the employment of a lot of people http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes533032.htm http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes533032.htm 1,678,280 http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes533033.htm http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes533033.htm 826,510
mikeg8 10y ago
That was my biggest question from the post as well. Maybe I'm missing their "big picture" but that sounds a little too good to be true.
mvd366 10y ago
Truckers are paid per mile and have a driving limit of 11 hours per day and 70 hours per week. Having an autopilot take over for part of the trip could substantially increase the ground they can cover in a day.
- BinaryIdiot 10y ago
  Would it though? If the truck can drive hundreds of miles on the highway then initially maybe you're right because they'll just sit in the cab but, eventually, they won't be in the cabs anymore. If they're being paid by the mile then that's a significant cut of the miles and therefore pay.
  - boodm 10y ago
    Not to ask a silly question, but how does an auto-pilot truck (w/ no driver) get fuel? If there will be a service that provides fuel to driverless trucks, how will the business (who owns the truck) verify the PPG and gallons loaded?
    - jaf656s 10y ago
      If you are a large fleet with many trucks, it would probably be cheaper to hire employees at the truck stops (or manage your own fuel depots) to just pump fuel all day for the automated trucks on the automated routes. Then you could have a small number of vehicles, or small companies could pop up to serve this role, that refuel automated trucks that run out and stop driving outside those automated routes (if this is even a concern). If you are eliminating 80%+ of trucker salaries, you have a lot of money to work with.
    - semi-extrinsic 10y ago
      That's an easy problem to solve. Either using fully automated pumps, or truck stops with employees. Truck presents billing info/company credit card to pump/employee, they verify card, fill up truck with N gallons, truck also measures gallons loaded, pump bills truck with specification of gallons loaded. If the pump and truck numbers disagree, handle it like any other billing discrepancy.
rezashirazian 10y ago
Although the idea of self driving trucks and truckers getting paid more is juxtaposed, I think the premise stems from their network and load matching system rather than the self driving trucks.
- bostonpete 10y ago
  My understanding was that the trucking industry had taken huge strides towards improving their network and load matching years ago. Uber's technology may have been revolutionary in the taxi industry but are you sure there's a lot of room for improvement in trucking? I would have guessed the trucking industry was actually more efficient than Uber in these areas.

I'd love the hear their justification for why this is going to lead to truckers getting paid more...

echelon 10y ago

It's going to put them all out of work, eventually. Similar to training your replacement.

epa 10y ago
Im not so sure of that. The hardest part of trucking is the first 1% of the trip and the last 1% of the trip. I envision that the robotic trucks will leave and enter into designated facilities at the outskirts of town, from there a trucker can take the truck to the client to unload and sign the paper work, bring it back and set it on its new course. I think it will allow truckers a more specialized role of client service and trickier city driving, and to work in one city every day, instead of travelling.
- wp1 10y ago
  This is how harbors work. Ports employee pilots, who board ships, get them through busy waterways, and dock them. The regular crew on a large ship just sits back when coming into port.
  - nradov 10y ago
    The regular crew doesn't sit back at all. They are busier than ever, it's just that they take orders from the pilot instead of a regular ship's officer for a few hours.
  - bfuller 10y ago
    Those port pilot jobs are notoriously well paying as well as difficult to secure. Sure there will be more hubs than there are ports, but it doesn't look good for truckers. Not saying you were arguing any different op, just furthering the points made above and below.
- samastur 10y ago
  And how many truckers do you think this job would need compared to now? It's hard to imagine that not a lot fewer unless you expect that number of trucks on roads would rise by some multiple of now.
  - kbenson 10y ago
    You may well be right, but that doesn't change the fact that it would justify the original statement regarding truckers being paid more. The part that was left out of the original statement was demand for truck drivers, which is generally accepted will drop with increased automation. It's true in the same way that we can say that "factory workers" in the US get paid much more than they used to. This is because they are more likely to be technicians now, who service the robotic assembly line. The nature of the job has changed with automation, and truck driving will be similar.
    - robotresearcher 10y ago
      With 98% of truckers suddenly on the job market, you think trucker pay would rise? The last-mile drivers aren't debugging robot trucks. In the worst case the robot truck just turns back into a regular truck. No new skills required for a trucker.
      - kbenson 10y ago
        If we assume navigating a city is the harder part of trucking (and I believe that, I've seen some crazy trucking maneuvers on city streets), and that truckers of the future are going to be largely navigating the city over and over, then we are quickly going to see which truckers can do that well without problems. The number of truckers available on the market will increase, but the job will be fundamentally different in the composition of skills required. It's possible that those that can quickly and reliably navigate city roads without problem will rise to the top and be able to command higher wages. It's not guaranteed and it wouldn't be immediate, but I'm not sure it's unlikely.
  - BurningFrog 10y ago
- jdoliner 10y ago
  Sounds like that would greatly decrease the demand for drivers. Since they're now not needed for 99% of the trip. And also greatly increase the supply of labor. Since trucking no longer entails travel and people can live close to their families. Both things that generally lead to decrease in price.
- dragonwriter 10y ago
  So, eliminating 98% of the work. Which, even with halving the per-trucker hours, means eliminating 96% of the truckers. I'd call that putting truckers out of work...
protomyth 10y ago
That would be a huge hit to the employment of a lot of people http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes533032.htm http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes533032.htm 1,678,280 http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes533033.htm http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes533033.htm 826,510

mikeg8 10y ago

That was my biggest question from the post as well. Maybe I'm missing their "big picture" but that sounds a little too good to be true.

mvd366 10y ago

Truckers are paid per mile and have a driving limit of 11 hours per day and 70 hours per week. Having an autopilot take over for part of the trip could substantially increase the ground they can cover in a day.

BinaryIdiot 10y ago
Would it though? If the truck can drive hundreds of miles on the highway then initially maybe you're right because they'll just sit in the cab but, eventually, they won't be in the cabs anymore. If they're being paid by the mile then that's a significant cut of the miles and therefore pay.
- boodm 10y ago
  Not to ask a silly question, but how does an auto-pilot truck (w/ no driver) get fuel? If there will be a service that provides fuel to driverless trucks, how will the business (who owns the truck) verify the PPG and gallons loaded?
  - jaf656s 10y ago
    If you are a large fleet with many trucks, it would probably be cheaper to hire employees at the truck stops (or manage your own fuel depots) to just pump fuel all day for the automated trucks on the automated routes. Then you could have a small number of vehicles, or small companies could pop up to serve this role, that refuel automated trucks that run out and stop driving outside those automated routes (if this is even a concern). If you are eliminating 80%+ of trucker salaries, you have a lot of money to work with.
  - semi-extrinsic 10y ago
    That's an easy problem to solve. Either using fully automated pumps, or truck stops with employees. Truck presents billing info/company credit card to pump/employee, they verify card, fill up truck with N gallons, truck also measures gallons loaded, pump bills truck with specification of gallons loaded. If the pump and truck numbers disagree, handle it like any other billing discrepancy.

rezashirazian 10y ago

Although the idea of self driving trucks and truckers getting paid more is juxtaposed, I think the premise stems from their network and load matching system rather than the self driving trucks.

bostonpete 10y ago
My understanding was that the trucking industry had taken huge strides towards improving their network and load matching years ago. Uber's technology may have been revolutionary in the taxi industry but are you sure there's a lot of room for improvement in trucking? I would have guessed the trucking industry was actually more efficient than Uber in these areas.