4 ms·

Why the iPad Will Change Everything

31 points by mjfern 17y ago

faramarz 17y ago
as long as you're willing to do it the Steve Jobs way.
- krav 17y ago
  Enough are - look at Apple's market cap.
- alanthonyc 17y ago
  I thought he was editorializing, but that's actually part of the article's real title.
papachito 17y ago
This article should be renamed: "Why we wish the iPad will change everything for us publishers".
- lotharbot 17y ago
  Right. Much of what the article said the iPad would "transform", I already do on my PC and lots of others do on their laptops or tablets -- things like watching TV, for example. The only thing the iPad does is puts it in a small, portable shell with a slick interface that channels revenue to Apple. There's a market for that. But I don't see it as being "transformational" in any significant way.
  - papachito 17y ago
    > The only thing the iPad does is puts it in a small, portable shell with a slick interface Netbooks do that already, and with a real keyboard.
  - stcredzero 17y ago
    There's a market for that. But I don't see it as being "transformational" in any significant way. The combination of features, form factor, and App Store, will put all of the above within reach with practically no requirement for being tech savvy. That's "transformational". I can do everything the iPad will do with my 4 year old tablet. But only the truly tech savvy would tinker with it as much as I have to get it to that point, and it's still not as slick as the iPad appears to be. I suspect my 71 year old Dad will be able to pull his out of the box, turn it on, and have an even slicker experience. Lots of non tech-savvy folks with money will want one.
bmalicoat 17y ago
Does anyone else find it weird and a little sad that Woz has to pre-order one (or three) like a normal person? Edit: To clarify, I mean sad that they don't just send him some. Since, you know, he helped start the company and everything.
- stcredzero 17y ago
  He's allowed 3 because he's Woz.
- deleted 17y ago
  [deleted]
- jkincaid 17y ago
  Pretty sure they'd be happy to send him ten if he wanted them. Sounds like he's in it for the fun of the launch.
  - deleted 17y ago
    [deleted]
jnoller 17y ago
I think this is actually a fairly even-handed look at the potential (both positive and negative) of the iPad. Even if the iPad is simply the spark that kicks off the touch-tablet craze (iphone to nexus one anyone?) - it's still a significant game-changer. Will it displace desktops and laptops? Not for people who use them to get work done. Anyone writing a book probably won't use an iPad - nor will someone writing software, or doing accounting/etc. It will, however, one day replace the things "most" people use computers for - consuming media, articles, videos, writing short blogs, etc. At it's heart - it's a consumption device with some capabilities of creating. The content creation capabilities will simply get stronger with time (UX mockup tools, Keynote/presentation tools, sketching applications, etc). As the tablet/touch-interface market expands and more companies get in the game, things will only get better. More tablets will come, more 3rd party hardware addons will come - creators will be enabled. Do I wish it ran OSX-Full, instead of iPhone OS? Yes, but while I wish that, I also see the fact that using an OS designed for a touch-based system is superior than a normal OS with touch-based interactivity "bolted on". Anyone doubting how intuitive and natural a touch-based system is to work with should try handing an iPhone to a two year old. They can figure it out much more quickly than a mouse and keyboard. My poor daughter (my guinea pig) can pick up my iphone, switch screens, find and start her game(s) in seconds. She's still flummoxed by my laptop/touchpad and the little mouse icon on the screen.
- replicatorblog 17y ago
  "Even if the iPad is simply the spark that kicks off the touch-tablet craze (iphone to nexus one anyone?) - it's still a significant game-changer." Great point. I disagree about the iPad not being good for writing books. Won't Incase or Mophie come up with a $100 keyboard/case that turns this into a laptop? I think the app ecosystem will be greatly augmented by a hardware eco-system. I'm bullish on the platform.
  - jnoller 17y ago
    Later in that comment I pointed that out - content creators will be enabled by third-party add ons, and other companies building "competitors" which further enable creation. I don't think that there is anything blocking creation on it - just that that's not the short-term aim.
jkincaid 17y ago
I think that the iPad and similar devices down the road really could change everything as far as print and multimedia consumption is concerned. But it's going to take a long time (years, perhaps) until these publishers are producing content that's compelling enough that people will actually buy it as opposed to finding similar stuff for free on the web. My hunch is that these first attempts by magazines will look cool but feel really gimmicky, to the point that they're a bit of a joke. Think cheesy quizzes and games and video content that's been available on the web for weeks (remember, these digital magazines will take time to produce). I wrote about this topic a bit more back in January if you're interested: http://techcrunch.com/2010/01/26/apple-tablet-book-revolution/ http://techcrunch.com/2010/01/26/apple-tablet-book-revolutio...
- mgcross 17y ago
  And I'm sure the magazines will be littered with canvas tag-based banner ads that would be much more intrusive than a full page print ad. No ad-blocker plugins on an iPad.
mojuba 17y ago
Excuse my ignorance and non-appleness for this simple, non-technical, potentially stupid question: While my 13" MacBook Pro rests on my knees, I can smoke with one hand, hold my coffee in the other hand, and read this article at the same time. I started it in the kitchen and finished in the bedroom. How is iPad going to make my life better? Will I be able to do 3 things at a time with it? I suspect one hand will always be busy holding the thing. It will get tired, let alone that I won't be able to smoke and have my coffee and read an article (and always have the UNIX shell at hand) at the same time. This seems like an iPad killer in the bad sense to me. I'm sorry.
- superjared 17y ago
  Maybe you should quit smoking. Seriously though, the iPad isn't made for the likes of us on Hacker News (though I still kinda want one). It's for people like my father who don't really give a damn what a computer is as long as it's easy to use.
  - mojuba 17y ago
    He probably should care that his arm is going to get tired holding his iPad for more than 15-20 minutes. Seriously, I'm failing to picture any long-time user of this device being really, really happy with it.
    - stcredzero 17y ago
      I'm jazzed about my Windows slate at 3 pounds, and yes, I can browse and post on HN all day with it, even from bed. You don't have to hold it up to use it in any context you can use a hardcover book. My iPad will weigh half as much and won't require a stylus.
    - commieneko 17y ago
      Because no one ever held a book steady in their hand for more than 15-20 minutes without getting tired... Hell, I've watched whole TV shows on the bus with my iPod Touch. And don't get me started on games. There will be plenty of problems with the device, it's a 1.0, but there will be plenty of people really, really happy with it.
stcredzero 17y ago
I want one. ... It has a nice 9.7-inch screen, weighs only one and a half pounds, and can play movies for 10 hours on a single battery charge. Right away I could see how I would use it. I'd keep it in the living room to check e-mail and browse the Web. I'd take it to the kitchen and read The New York Times while I eat breakfast. I'd bring it with me on a plane to watch movies and read books. I also pre-ordered, but I will note that I do all of the above with my rather old tc1100 tablet. (A p4 just barely squeaks by with video.) Even now, I'm posting to HN from bed using the phenomenal Windows XP Tablet handwriting recognition. The iPad will change everything not because it's new. It will change everything because of its execution.
- jnoller 17y ago
  Precisely. The point people need to realize is that having a well-executed, easy-to-use touch-based interface is the killer feature of the iPad. That "shiny user interface" is the point of it.
megaman821 17y ago
Apple does have a history of entering markets ripe for explosion and then facilitating that explosion. It seems a bit different this time. In the past it seems the Apple was answering consumers' demands rather than publishers' demands. Portable music sold one at a time came to the delight of consumers and the detriment of the music industry. The iPhone's internet connected apps encourage using more and more bandwidth is to the detriment of cell phone carriers. Consumers outside of tech geeks and Apple fans seem to care less about tablets. It is the publishers who pine for a new platform to sell the wares on that seem to be the most vocal about how revolutionary the iPad is. Even friends that have pre-ordered it do not exactly know what they will be doing with it yet, only that the iPad is somehow revolutionary. Time will tell if the iPad will be a success but I personally hope a more open platform will win out.
- swombat 17y ago
  There's "no demand" for a simple, easy to use tablet-sized internet/app device that doesn't crash, just like there was "no demand" for a simple, easy to use, pocket-sized music device 10 years ago. There's plenty of demand for it. Most people just don't know they want one yet. As I argued in my article after the iPad launch, people who don't actually want a computer will be buying this in droves (instead of wasting money on ugly, powerless netbooks - which are priced in the same region!).
  - megaman821 17y ago
    There was demand for a pocket-sized music device over 20 years ago. The Sony Walkman was a success which was followed by the proprietary Sony MiniDisc format which flopped. Then iRiver and Phillips had crappy mp3 players. The iPod was the first portable music player since the Walkman that was a success. I am not prescient, the iPad may be a huge success, but there currently not a large market for tablets. There were large markets for portable music players and smart phones when Apple entered those fields.
viraptor 17y ago
(Ignoring the article itself here) The top picture reminded me of this ok/cancel comic strip: http://okcancel.com/comic/3.html http://okcancel.com/comic/3.html I know it's not the environment where you'd normally use the device, but still - how are you even supposed to hold it?
mikecane 17y ago
Just three words needed: One million sold. http://ipadtest.wordpress.com/2010/03/27/one-million-ipads-sold/ http://ipadtest.wordpress.com/2010/03/27/one-million-ipads-s...
marze 17y ago
The killer app on the iPad is DRM. Without it, there would be no for-purchase TV shows, movies, books, or magazines as it would be impossible to license the content. The closed and managed system is not an option for Apple, it is essential to the success of the product.
- lurkinggrue 17y ago
  One reason I would avoid those products. It may be elegant but I would rather a more open device even at the cost of some "Ease of use."

31 points by mjfern 17y ago

faramarz 17y ago

as long as you're willing to do it the Steve Jobs way.

krav 17y ago
Enough are - look at Apple's market cap.
alanthonyc 17y ago
I thought he was editorializing, but that's actually part of the article's real title.

papachito 17y ago

This article should be renamed: "Why we wish the iPad will change everything for us publishers".

lotharbot 17y ago
Right. Much of what the article said the iPad would "transform", I already do on my PC and lots of others do on their laptops or tablets -- things like watching TV, for example. The only thing the iPad does is puts it in a small, portable shell with a slick interface that channels revenue to Apple. There's a market for that. But I don't see it as being "transformational" in any significant way.
- papachito 17y ago
  > The only thing the iPad does is puts it in a small, portable shell with a slick interface Netbooks do that already, and with a real keyboard.
- stcredzero 17y ago
  There's a market for that. But I don't see it as being "transformational" in any significant way. The combination of features, form factor, and App Store, will put all of the above within reach with practically no requirement for being tech savvy. That's "transformational". I can do everything the iPad will do with my 4 year old tablet. But only the truly tech savvy would tinker with it as much as I have to get it to that point, and it's still not as slick as the iPad appears to be. I suspect my 71 year old Dad will be able to pull his out of the box, turn it on, and have an even slicker experience. Lots of non tech-savvy folks with money will want one.

bmalicoat 17y ago

Does anyone else find it weird and a little sad that Woz has to pre-order one (or three) like a normal person? Edit: To clarify, I mean sad that they don't just send him some. Since, you know, he helped start the company and everything.

stcredzero 17y ago
He's allowed 3 because he's Woz.
deleted 17y ago
[deleted]
jkincaid 17y ago
Pretty sure they'd be happy to send him ten if he wanted them. Sounds like he's in it for the fun of the launch.
- deleted 17y ago
  [deleted]

jnoller 17y ago

I think this is actually a fairly even-handed look at the potential (both positive and negative) of the iPad. Even if the iPad is simply the spark that kicks off the touch-tablet craze (iphone to nexus one anyone?) - it's still a significant game-changer. Will it displace desktops and laptops? Not for people who use them to get work done. Anyone writing a book probably won't use an iPad - nor will someone writing software, or doing accounting/etc. It will, however, one day replace the things "most" people use computers for - consuming media, articles, videos, writing short blogs, etc. At it's heart - it's a consumption device with some capabilities of creating. The content creation capabilities will simply get stronger with time (UX mockup tools, Keynote/presentation tools, sketching applications, etc). As the tablet/touch-interface market expands and more companies get in the game, things will only get better. More tablets will come, more 3rd party hardware addons will come - creators will be enabled. Do I wish it ran OSX-Full, instead of iPhone OS? Yes, but while I wish that, I also see the fact that using an OS designed for a touch-based system is superior than a normal OS with touch-based interactivity "bolted on". Anyone doubting how intuitive and natural a touch-based system is to work with should try handing an iPhone to a two year old. They can figure it out much more quickly than a mouse and keyboard. My poor daughter (my guinea pig) can pick up my iphone, switch screens, find and start her game(s) in seconds. She's still flummoxed by my laptop/touchpad and the little mouse icon on the screen.

replicatorblog 17y ago
"Even if the iPad is simply the spark that kicks off the touch-tablet craze (iphone to nexus one anyone?) - it's still a significant game-changer." Great point. I disagree about the iPad not being good for writing books. Won't Incase or Mophie come up with a $100 keyboard/case that turns this into a laptop? I think the app ecosystem will be greatly augmented by a hardware eco-system. I'm bullish on the platform.
- jnoller 17y ago
  Later in that comment I pointed that out - content creators will be enabled by third-party add ons, and other companies building "competitors" which further enable creation. I don't think that there is anything blocking creation on it - just that that's not the short-term aim.

jkincaid 17y ago

I think that the iPad and similar devices down the road really could change everything as far as print and multimedia consumption is concerned. But it's going to take a long time (years, perhaps) until these publishers are producing content that's compelling enough that people will actually buy it as opposed to finding similar stuff for free on the web. My hunch is that these first attempts by magazines will look cool but feel really gimmicky, to the point that they're a bit of a joke. Think cheesy quizzes and games and video content that's been available on the web for weeks (remember, these digital magazines will take time to produce). I wrote about this topic a bit more back in January if you're interested: http://techcrunch.com/2010/01/26/apple-tablet-book-revolution/ http://techcrunch.com/2010/01/26/apple-tablet-book-revolutio...

mgcross 17y ago
And I'm sure the magazines will be littered with canvas tag-based banner ads that would be much more intrusive than a full page print ad. No ad-blocker plugins on an iPad.

mojuba 17y ago

Excuse my ignorance and non-appleness for this simple, non-technical, potentially stupid question: While my 13" MacBook Pro rests on my knees, I can smoke with one hand, hold my coffee in the other hand, and read this article at the same time. I started it in the kitchen and finished in the bedroom. How is iPad going to make my life better? Will I be able to do 3 things at a time with it? I suspect one hand will always be busy holding the thing. It will get tired, let alone that I won't be able to smoke and have my coffee and read an article (and always have the UNIX shell at hand) at the same time. This seems like an iPad killer in the bad sense to me. I'm sorry.

superjared 17y ago
Maybe you should quit smoking. Seriously though, the iPad isn't made for the likes of us on Hacker News (though I still kinda want one). It's for people like my father who don't really give a damn what a computer is as long as it's easy to use.
- mojuba 17y ago
  He probably should care that his arm is going to get tired holding his iPad for more than 15-20 minutes. Seriously, I'm failing to picture any long-time user of this device being really, really happy with it.
  - stcredzero 17y ago
    I'm jazzed about my Windows slate at 3 pounds, and yes, I can browse and post on HN all day with it, even from bed. You don't have to hold it up to use it in any context you can use a hardcover book. My iPad will weigh half as much and won't require a stylus.
  - commieneko 17y ago
    Because no one ever held a book steady in their hand for more than 15-20 minutes without getting tired... Hell, I've watched whole TV shows on the bus with my iPod Touch. And don't get me started on games. There will be plenty of problems with the device, it's a 1.0, but there will be plenty of people really, really happy with it.

stcredzero 17y ago

I want one. ... It has a nice 9.7-inch screen, weighs only one and a half pounds, and can play movies for 10 hours on a single battery charge. Right away I could see how I would use it. I'd keep it in the living room to check e-mail and browse the Web. I'd take it to the kitchen and read The New York Times while I eat breakfast. I'd bring it with me on a plane to watch movies and read books. I also pre-ordered, but I will note that I do all of the above with my rather old tc1100 tablet. (A p4 just barely squeaks by with video.) Even now, I'm posting to HN from bed using the phenomenal Windows XP Tablet handwriting recognition. The iPad will change everything not because it's new. It will change everything because of its execution.

jnoller 17y ago
Precisely. The point people need to realize is that having a well-executed, easy-to-use touch-based interface is the killer feature of the iPad. That "shiny user interface" is the point of it.

megaman821 17y ago

Apple does have a history of entering markets ripe for explosion and then facilitating that explosion. It seems a bit different this time. In the past it seems the Apple was answering consumers' demands rather than publishers' demands. Portable music sold one at a time came to the delight of consumers and the detriment of the music industry. The iPhone's internet connected apps encourage using more and more bandwidth is to the detriment of cell phone carriers. Consumers outside of tech geeks and Apple fans seem to care less about tablets. It is the publishers who pine for a new platform to sell the wares on that seem to be the most vocal about how revolutionary the iPad is. Even friends that have pre-ordered it do not exactly know what they will be doing with it yet, only that the iPad is somehow revolutionary. Time will tell if the iPad will be a success but I personally hope a more open platform will win out.

swombat 17y ago
There's "no demand" for a simple, easy to use tablet-sized internet/app device that doesn't crash, just like there was "no demand" for a simple, easy to use, pocket-sized music device 10 years ago. There's plenty of demand for it. Most people just don't know they want one yet. As I argued in my article after the iPad launch, people who don't actually want a computer will be buying this in droves (instead of wasting money on ugly, powerless netbooks - which are priced in the same region!).
- megaman821 17y ago
  There was demand for a pocket-sized music device over 20 years ago. The Sony Walkman was a success which was followed by the proprietary Sony MiniDisc format which flopped. Then iRiver and Phillips had crappy mp3 players. The iPod was the first portable music player since the Walkman that was a success. I am not prescient, the iPad may be a huge success, but there currently not a large market for tablets. There were large markets for portable music players and smart phones when Apple entered those fields.

viraptor 17y ago

(Ignoring the article itself here) The top picture reminded me of this ok/cancel comic strip: http://okcancel.com/comic/3.html http://okcancel.com/comic/3.html I know it's not the environment where you'd normally use the device, but still - how are you even supposed to hold it?

mikecane 17y ago

Just three words needed: One million sold. http://ipadtest.wordpress.com/2010/03/27/one-million-ipads-sold/ http://ipadtest.wordpress.com/2010/03/27/one-million-ipads-s...

marze 17y ago

The killer app on the iPad is DRM. Without it, there would be no for-purchase TV shows, movies, books, or magazines as it would be impossible to license the content. The closed and managed system is not an option for Apple, it is essential to the success of the product.

lurkinggrue 17y ago
One reason I would avoid those products. It may be elegant but I would rather a more open device even at the cost of some "Ease of use."