5 ms·

Hardware is commoditized but brands are not. Anyone can make handbags but only some can sell them for $5000. Oculus has potential to be as profitable as Apple i

Hardware is commoditized but brands are not. Anyone can make handbags but only some can sell them for $5000. Oculus has potential to be as profitable as Apple if they absolutely nail the execution and the experience. But it remains to the be seen if the Rift is an iphone or a newton. Being tethered to a high end gaming pc "dooms" it to be a niche product. How soon can Oculus either ally with a console or make a console?

nightski 10y ago
They haven't nailed execution and/or experience. Simple as that. Do they have time to fix it? Maybe. But it's going to be a battle and it doesn't seem like they are in fighting mode.
- vvanders 10y ago
  Yup, even moreso when HTC is pinning their future(I assume) on the Vive they're going to throw everything the can behind it.
randiantech 10y ago
I think you nailed it. Oculus is order to not become a niche product needs to be sold as part of a console bundle. That would make premium VR to a one pressed button distance. Maybe Project Scorpio + Oculus? Scorpio specs seems to be enough for a good VR experencie.
- justinlardinois 10y ago
  > Scorpio specs seems to be enough for a good VR experencie. That's one of the project's main goals. But my understanding is that Microsoft is developing its own Xbox VR headset.
- onewaystreet 10y ago
  > Oculus is order to not become a niche product needs to be sold as part of a console bundle Facebook wants VR to be more than video games. Bundling the Gear with Samsung phones has been a success so far.
- kriro 10y ago
  I agree the hardware requirements are the real downer for mass adoption. I'm eagerly awaiting the Playstation VR headset (preordered) and I agree that next gen XBox is probably the best strategic partner (since it's close to a PC with graphics focus). It'll be interesting who Microsoft partners with.
aresant 10y ago
Facebook is not trying to build a premium VR business w/margins akin to Apple, that would be completely inverse to their business strategy. Facebook is much more akin to Google than to Apple because Facebook & Google's primary business is the same - advertising. And if you're an advertising business your primary objective is driving more eyeballs / more users. Google's first VR solution demonstrates this - they GIVE it away via Cardboard. Just look at how Facebook approaches the GearVR initiative - I can't imagine they're making much of a licensing premium but it's dramatically increasing their footprint to be the premier VR solution of Samsung phones (1) Which is where I come back to why bother with the hardware side as a serious business at all? Even if I argue that the Oculus Rift is just a red herring to push the medium forward on the hardware side I lose the thread because they seem to be playing such hard defense on the hardware side w/the "app" store . . . Just release FB Social VR already and win the game, stop damaging your brand w/consumers and developers . . . (1) http://fortune.com/2016/05/11/oculus-samsung-gear-1-million-users/ http://fortune.com/2016/05/11/oculus-samsung-gear-1-million-...
- amaks 10y ago
  Isn't Oculus Rift a premium VR product?
- eldavido 10y ago
  So much this. I saw facebook's earnings last quarter and my jaw dropped. 40% increase in revenue since same quarter last year. Then I took a look at their quarterly report, and the entire thing -- and I mean, like 99% of it -- is about ads. MAU, DAU, publisher and inventory growth, top-level organizational goals about getting more marketers on the platform, etc. The only other two revenue sources they have are hardware sales and payments, and they didn't even break out how much either of those businesses made apart from the broader facebook advertising business. It became extremely clear reading the report that ads is where the focus, attention, and money are going in the company. I guess Oculus is going to be a giant ad business. Either that, or fb is going to pull off a major win against the innovator's dilemma, where they get so focused on ads that that focus chokes other initiatives within the company. I don't doubt Oculus (as well as Messenger) have a ton of ad inventory in front of them. But I think it's a mistake to think fb cares about the hardware per se; they don't, it's all just a doorway to their platform.
JustSomeNobody 10y ago
> Oculus has potential to be as profitable as Apple if they absolutely nail the execution and the experience. No. VR won't be that popular. I know that's hard for people on HN to hear, but it's true. Sure it'll make money selling to geeks and nerds, but that's all.
- chaostheory 10y ago
  Why?
  - JustSomeNobody 10y ago
    Similar reason to why 3D TV failed; nobody likes stuff on their face.
    - ethbro 10y ago
      Do you have any data to back up those assertions? Because they seem pretty "Here is how I feel so therefore it must be that way."
      - JustSomeNobody 10y ago
        No. I just know people. What's going to happen the first time pretty people have a VR party and headshots of all of them with red, sweaty rings around their faces shows up on FB? They'll never put the VR on again, that's what.
        ethbro 10y ago
        :-) I know people too. And there was a time when looking into a CRT and listening to your modem squawk while the webpage in front of you took 5 minutes to download. The takeaway seems obvious: terrible experience, they'll never use this Internet thing again.
        JustSomeNobody 10y ago
amelius 10y ago
But in any case, we don't want the company selling the $5000 handbags to be the one setting the industry standards.

nightski 10y ago

They haven't nailed execution and/or experience. Simple as that. Do they have time to fix it? Maybe. But it's going to be a battle and it doesn't seem like they are in fighting mode.

vvanders 10y ago
Yup, even moreso when HTC is pinning their future(I assume) on the Vive they're going to throw everything the can behind it.

randiantech 10y ago

I think you nailed it. Oculus is order to not become a niche product needs to be sold as part of a console bundle. That would make premium VR to a one pressed button distance. Maybe Project Scorpio + Oculus? Scorpio specs seems to be enough for a good VR experencie.

justinlardinois 10y ago
> Scorpio specs seems to be enough for a good VR experencie. That's one of the project's main goals. But my understanding is that Microsoft is developing its own Xbox VR headset.
onewaystreet 10y ago
> Oculus is order to not become a niche product needs to be sold as part of a console bundle Facebook wants VR to be more than video games. Bundling the Gear with Samsung phones has been a success so far.
kriro 10y ago
I agree the hardware requirements are the real downer for mass adoption. I'm eagerly awaiting the Playstation VR headset (preordered) and I agree that next gen XBox is probably the best strategic partner (since it's close to a PC with graphics focus). It'll be interesting who Microsoft partners with.

aresant 10y ago

Facebook is not trying to build a premium VR business w/margins akin to Apple, that would be completely inverse to their business strategy. Facebook is much more akin to Google than to Apple because Facebook & Google's primary business is the same - advertising. And if you're an advertising business your primary objective is driving more eyeballs / more users. Google's first VR solution demonstrates this - they GIVE it away via Cardboard. Just look at how Facebook approaches the GearVR initiative - I can't imagine they're making much of a licensing premium but it's dramatically increasing their footprint to be the premier VR solution of Samsung phones (1) Which is where I come back to why bother with the hardware side as a serious business at all? Even if I argue that the Oculus Rift is just a red herring to push the medium forward on the hardware side I lose the thread because they seem to be playing such hard defense on the hardware side w/the "app" store . . . Just release FB Social VR already and win the game, stop damaging your brand w/consumers and developers . . . (1) http://fortune.com/2016/05/11/oculus-samsung-gear-1-million-users/ http://fortune.com/2016/05/11/oculus-samsung-gear-1-million-...

amaks 10y ago
Isn't Oculus Rift a premium VR product?
eldavido 10y ago
So much this. I saw facebook's earnings last quarter and my jaw dropped. 40% increase in revenue since same quarter last year. Then I took a look at their quarterly report, and the entire thing -- and I mean, like 99% of it -- is about ads. MAU, DAU, publisher and inventory growth, top-level organizational goals about getting more marketers on the platform, etc. The only other two revenue sources they have are hardware sales and payments, and they didn't even break out how much either of those businesses made apart from the broader facebook advertising business. It became extremely clear reading the report that ads is where the focus, attention, and money are going in the company. I guess Oculus is going to be a giant ad business. Either that, or fb is going to pull off a major win against the innovator's dilemma, where they get so focused on ads that that focus chokes other initiatives within the company. I don't doubt Oculus (as well as Messenger) have a ton of ad inventory in front of them. But I think it's a mistake to think fb cares about the hardware per se; they don't, it's all just a doorway to their platform.

JustSomeNobody 10y ago

> Oculus has potential to be as profitable as Apple if they absolutely nail the execution and the experience. No. VR won't be that popular. I know that's hard for people on HN to hear, but it's true. Sure it'll make money selling to geeks and nerds, but that's all.

chaostheory 10y ago
Why?
- JustSomeNobody 10y ago
  Similar reason to why 3D TV failed; nobody likes stuff on their face.
  - ethbro 10y ago
    Do you have any data to back up those assertions? Because they seem pretty "Here is how I feel so therefore it must be that way."
    - JustSomeNobody 10y ago
      No. I just know people. What's going to happen the first time pretty people have a VR party and headshots of all of them with red, sweaty rings around their faces shows up on FB? They'll never put the VR on again, that's what.
      - ethbro 10y ago
        :-) I know people too. And there was a time when looking into a CRT and listening to your modem squawk while the webpage in front of you took 5 minutes to download. The takeaway seems obvious: terrible experience, they'll never use this Internet thing again.
        JustSomeNobody 10y ago

amelius 10y ago

But in any case, we don't want the company selling the $5000 handbags to be the one setting the industry standards.