5 ms·

> It seems to me that China outplayed the West here by a wide margin. Don't worry, the game is not over yet. >For some reason, the West has let China get away

by tiatia 10y ago

> It seems to me that China outplayed the West here by a wide margin. Don't worry, the game is not over yet. >For some reason, the West has let China get away with extremely protectionist trade policies the likes of which no one else in the world would dare even attempt. Yes. But this could be changed by Trump in one day. (Sorry, I know that this is an extremely liberal board). Chinese don't believe in win-win. They believe in win-lose. Thats great but in my experience there is a point where you run out of stupid people to screw over. Also, it is difficult to do business with Chinese. Why? Because a lot of their decisions are irrational and it is extremely difficult to have an opponent that does irrational decisions. But this will backfire or is backfirering already. Why? With 10 or 12% growth you can afford to make irrational decisions. But try this at 6,5 or 4 percent growth. Good luck with that.

serge2k 10y ago
> Yes. But this could be changed by Trump in one day. OH really? How will he do that?
- tiatia 10y ago
  Tell them: Look, you can play around with your currency in whatever way you want. But if the trade balance is not balanced, we charge a 10% import tax. Per day. Cumulative. I think there are many countries that can produce cheap shoes, clothes and electronics. By now all this stuff can already be manufactured in the US again due to automation and robotics (see Adidas producing shoes in Germany AGAIN). This would be a minor problem for the US but a big problem for China, Germany and Japan. By the way, I live in China.
  - gnaritas 10y ago
    > Tell them: Look, you can play around with your currency in whatever way you want. But if the trade balance is not balanced, we charge a 10% import tax. Per day. Cumulative. Yea, that's not how the world works; the President isn't a CEO.
  - morgante 10y ago
    And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains. Sorry, but complex problems don't have simple answers. Trump can't unilaterally force China to stop its protectionism, at least not without inflicting significant hurt on the American economy. How do you think people will react to a 10% increase in prices for almost all goods?
    - giardini 10y ago
      "And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains." WHAT supply chain? There is NO supply chain anymore. JIT (Just-In-Time) inventory has been replaced by BLTN (Better-Late-Than-Never) and AGNM (Ain't-Got-No-More) inventory. Went to a large box store on the weekend. They had empty containers marked "Display" on the shelves. Two different employees explained that I should put empty containers for the desired items in my cart and, upon checking out, they would retrieve a full container of each item "from the back". Both assured me all displayed items were available. Got my display containers and proceeded to check out. Was informed that two of three displayed items were not available. I suggested to the clerk "So now you'll take these two items off display?" He replied "No, they'll probably be back in stock next week." I left the store w/o purchasing anything and they'll never see me again. We may be in a recession right now because we can't buy quality goods AT ALL! I've bought five new fingernail clippers in the last six months and, for God's sake, they won't cut my nails! They're all made in China. Many, if not most Chinese goods, especially machine tools, remain as they were 14 years ago: low quality and every item different with no standardization. And they've driven many good US manufacturers out of business. Why? Because workers buy shitty tools for one-time use, bill the customer for the work and for the tools and then throw away the tools when they're done. Of course no one's considering the external factors here: cost of shitty tools in poor workmanship, longer production times and accidents. "How do you think people will react to a 10% increase in prices for almost all goods?" If it convinces American manufacturers to produce quality products then it's great news.
      - losteric 10y ago
        Your anecdotes are not data.
  - android521 10y ago
    I always wonder who are the idiotic supporters of trump and what were they thing? Now I found one. So trump raises 10% import tax, how will that affect prices and the economy. You are such a genius. The world is a dangerous place because of people like you with half brains.
    - tiatia 10y ago
      >So trump raises 10% import tax This was just an example. But it does not matter if 1% or 10%. It is per day. Cumulative. Please look up the word if you don't understand it. It is cumulative until the trade balance is balanced again.
      - gnaritas 10y ago
        You're only proving his point.
  - rpgmaker 10y ago
    There is a massive amount of US wealth landlocked in China, there's no way a US president is going to risk having China appropriate all that wealth a la Castro. If you really believe Trump will go through with his childish bravado then I feel sorry for you and for all his voters but I get why it has made him popular. When it comes to China it's too late to do anything too drastic to reverse this situation and given the risks involved there probably isn't much will to rock the boat either.
    - xapata 10y ago
      Another way to look at it: if you think Trump won't go through with his insanities, you're not scared enough. One example: Trump said he would refuse to honor US debts, just as he has successfully refused to honor his own debts so many times. Even the smallest credible threat of devaluing US Treasury bonds would be an economic disaster.
- jomamaxx 10y ago
  "OH really? How will he do that?" By slapping tit-for-tat policies. + Don't allow Chinese companies to invest in the US. + Control capital + Impose tariffs + Get the US gov to make it impossible for Chinese to do business in the US. Could be done with the stroke of a pen.
labster 10y ago
> Because a lot of their decisions are irrational and it is extremely difficult to have an opponent that does irrational decisions. While I disagree in general, I downvoted because of that statement. The decisions of the Chinese government make sense in context. They are not an irrational actor just because some of us don't understand their motivations, or because they don't align with western interests. The process is obscure, which makes it frustrating, but there is logic and grand strategy involved.
- tiatia 10y ago
  That is true (see infrastructure investments). The irrational decision makers are mainly in private enterprises. In my opinion because they are used to 10% growth. They will have to change or their companies will go belly up. Many Chinese (both in Private and SOE) are complaining that there is a "downturn" right now. This is NOT a downturn. It will never be 10% growth. They have not realized that the game has changed.
johncolanduoni 10y ago
> Why? Because a lot of their decisions are irrational and it is extremely difficult to have an opponent that does irrational decisions. So if I make business decisions via ouija board or in a cocaine induced rage, I'll have a leg up?
- matwood 10y ago
  > So if I make business decisions via ouija board or in a cocaine induced rage, I'll have a leg up? No, but you'll have a job on Wall Street or maybe be a hedge fund manager.
  - tiatia 10y ago
    You mistake appetite for risk as irrational. This might be true in some cases but I don't think it is general the same. I think more of the scorpion and the frog: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scorpion_and_the_Frog https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scorpion_and_the_Frog
- schoen 10y ago
  > So if I make business decisions via ouija board or in a cocaine induced rage, I'll have a leg up? Thomas Schelling's book The Strategy of Conflict has a focus on the ways that people can benefit in a conflict from being, or being perceived as, irrational or constrained in their choices or access to information. Clearly you can't be better off in all areas of life by making irrational or random decisions, but there are some specific situations of conflict where you might be, if others are aware of it. One familiar example https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_(game) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_(game) where if people think you are very irrational, you're likely to win!
- KaoruAoiShiho 10y ago
  Surprisingly, according to game theory yes. http://lesswrong.com/lw/dc7/nash_equilibria_and_schelling_points/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/dc7/nash_equilibria_and_schelling_po...
mratzloff 10y ago
> (Sorry, I know that this is an extremely liberal board). Not really on economic policy, based on what I've seen. However, logical thinking is highly valued; that is to say, connecting the dots and backing up your assertions with evidence. Trite, blasé solutions to complex problems will usually earn a down vote on most topics, which is the case here. Asserting in advance that the board is extremely liberal and will therefore disagree with you based on a difference of opinion is I'm sure reassuring when you are down voted, as it insulates you from any responsibility in putting forth a poorly-considered case. You are just lying to yourself, though.

by tiatia 10y ago

serge2k 10y ago

> Yes. But this could be changed by Trump in one day. OH really? How will he do that?

tiatia 10y ago
Tell them: Look, you can play around with your currency in whatever way you want. But if the trade balance is not balanced, we charge a 10% import tax. Per day. Cumulative. I think there are many countries that can produce cheap shoes, clothes and electronics. By now all this stuff can already be manufactured in the US again due to automation and robotics (see Adidas producing shoes in Germany AGAIN). This would be a minor problem for the US but a big problem for China, Germany and Japan. By the way, I live in China.
- gnaritas 10y ago
  > Tell them: Look, you can play around with your currency in whatever way you want. But if the trade balance is not balanced, we charge a 10% import tax. Per day. Cumulative. Yea, that's not how the world works; the President isn't a CEO.
- morgante 10y ago
  And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains. Sorry, but complex problems don't have simple answers. Trump can't unilaterally force China to stop its protectionism, at least not without inflicting significant hurt on the American economy. How do you think people will react to a 10% increase in prices for almost all goods?
  - giardini 10y ago
    "And watch while we are plunged into a recession due to a huge disruption in global supply chains." WHAT supply chain? There is NO supply chain anymore. JIT (Just-In-Time) inventory has been replaced by BLTN (Better-Late-Than-Never) and AGNM (Ain't-Got-No-More) inventory. Went to a large box store on the weekend. They had empty containers marked "Display" on the shelves. Two different employees explained that I should put empty containers for the desired items in my cart and, upon checking out, they would retrieve a full container of each item "from the back". Both assured me all displayed items were available. Got my display containers and proceeded to check out. Was informed that two of three displayed items were not available. I suggested to the clerk "So now you'll take these two items off display?" He replied "No, they'll probably be back in stock next week." I left the store w/o purchasing anything and they'll never see me again. We may be in a recession right now because we can't buy quality goods AT ALL! I've bought five new fingernail clippers in the last six months and, for God's sake, they won't cut my nails! They're all made in China. Many, if not most Chinese goods, especially machine tools, remain as they were 14 years ago: low quality and every item different with no standardization. And they've driven many good US manufacturers out of business. Why? Because workers buy shitty tools for one-time use, bill the customer for the work and for the tools and then throw away the tools when they're done. Of course no one's considering the external factors here: cost of shitty tools in poor workmanship, longer production times and accidents. "How do you think people will react to a 10% increase in prices for almost all goods?" If it convinces American manufacturers to produce quality products then it's great news.
    - losteric 10y ago
      Your anecdotes are not data.
- android521 10y ago
  I always wonder who are the idiotic supporters of trump and what were they thing? Now I found one. So trump raises 10% import tax, how will that affect prices and the economy. You are such a genius. The world is a dangerous place because of people like you with half brains.
  - tiatia 10y ago
    >So trump raises 10% import tax This was just an example. But it does not matter if 1% or 10%. It is per day. Cumulative. Please look up the word if you don't understand it. It is cumulative until the trade balance is balanced again.
    - gnaritas 10y ago
      You're only proving his point.
- rpgmaker 10y ago
  There is a massive amount of US wealth landlocked in China, there's no way a US president is going to risk having China appropriate all that wealth a la Castro. If you really believe Trump will go through with his childish bravado then I feel sorry for you and for all his voters but I get why it has made him popular. When it comes to China it's too late to do anything too drastic to reverse this situation and given the risks involved there probably isn't much will to rock the boat either.
  - xapata 10y ago
    Another way to look at it: if you think Trump won't go through with his insanities, you're not scared enough. One example: Trump said he would refuse to honor US debts, just as he has successfully refused to honor his own debts so many times. Even the smallest credible threat of devaluing US Treasury bonds would be an economic disaster.
jomamaxx 10y ago
"OH really? How will he do that?" By slapping tit-for-tat policies. + Don't allow Chinese companies to invest in the US. + Control capital + Impose tariffs + Get the US gov to make it impossible for Chinese to do business in the US. Could be done with the stroke of a pen.

labster 10y ago

> Because a lot of their decisions are irrational and it is extremely difficult to have an opponent that does irrational decisions. While I disagree in general, I downvoted because of that statement. The decisions of the Chinese government make sense in context. They are not an irrational actor just because some of us don't understand their motivations, or because they don't align with western interests. The process is obscure, which makes it frustrating, but there is logic and grand strategy involved.

tiatia 10y ago
That is true (see infrastructure investments). The irrational decision makers are mainly in private enterprises. In my opinion because they are used to 10% growth. They will have to change or their companies will go belly up. Many Chinese (both in Private and SOE) are complaining that there is a "downturn" right now. This is NOT a downturn. It will never be 10% growth. They have not realized that the game has changed.

johncolanduoni 10y ago

> Why? Because a lot of their decisions are irrational and it is extremely difficult to have an opponent that does irrational decisions. So if I make business decisions via ouija board or in a cocaine induced rage, I'll have a leg up?

matwood 10y ago
> So if I make business decisions via ouija board or in a cocaine induced rage, I'll have a leg up? No, but you'll have a job on Wall Street or maybe be a hedge fund manager.
- tiatia 10y ago
  You mistake appetite for risk as irrational. This might be true in some cases but I don't think it is general the same. I think more of the scorpion and the frog: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scorpion_and_the_Frog https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scorpion_and_the_Frog
schoen 10y ago
> So if I make business decisions via ouija board or in a cocaine induced rage, I'll have a leg up? Thomas Schelling's book The Strategy of Conflict has a focus on the ways that people can benefit in a conflict from being, or being perceived as, irrational or constrained in their choices or access to information. Clearly you can't be better off in all areas of life by making irrational or random decisions, but there are some specific situations of conflict where you might be, if others are aware of it. One familiar example https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_(game) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chicken_(game) where if people think you are very irrational, you're likely to win!
KaoruAoiShiho 10y ago
Surprisingly, according to game theory yes. http://lesswrong.com/lw/dc7/nash_equilibria_and_schelling_points/ http://lesswrong.com/lw/dc7/nash_equilibria_and_schelling_po...

mratzloff 10y ago

> (Sorry, I know that this is an extremely liberal board). Not really on economic policy, based on what I've seen. However, logical thinking is highly valued; that is to say, connecting the dots and backing up your assertions with evidence. Trite, blasé solutions to complex problems will usually earn a down vote on most topics, which is the case here. Asserting in advance that the board is extremely liberal and will therefore disagree with you based on a difference of opinion is I'm sure reassuring when you are down voted, as it insulates you from any responsibility in putting forth a poorly-considered case. You are just lying to yourself, though.