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Feds give Google OK to test Project Wing drone deliveries

62 points by RileyKyeden 10y ago

nbmh 10y ago
Package delivery is one of the highest profile uses for drones, but I don't think it's a lasting one. Drones are unlikely to become cheap and efficient enough to eclipse current delivery techniques on a mass scale. Especially because traditional techniques will become much more effective as autonomous cars become feasible. However, lots of the technology being developed (robust autonomous flight, improved endurance & range, lower costs) will speed up developments for other applications that make better use of their strengths. Even more importantly, companies like Google are finally forcing the FAA to craft realistic regulations that don't completely cripple commercial applications. The FAA's lethargic pace has already severely hampered domestic development to the degree that Google had to do most of their development in Australia.
Klathmon 10y ago
From my perspective, it's pretty clear that "Delivery by drone" is going to happen. It might not be this year, or next year, or even in the next 5-10 years, but eventually it's going to happen. I think that if the FAA doesn't keep up with the pace that other countries are setting (in terms of regulation, laws, and rules surrounding out-of-sight drone usage), then eventually they will be pressured to rush some solutions which will probably have some bad consequences.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- Someone1234 10y ago
  From my perspective I think it is pretty clear that drone delivery is never going to happen and is just a fad. Firstly, let me just say, technologically drone delivery could definitely happen. There's no technical reason why not. But if we look at the history of freight it has always been about efficiency, and new competitors have always competed by finding ways of being cheaper. We already have less technical "drone delivery," it is called a courier, but outside of New York and a handful of other places they're niche. Nobody wants to pay to deliver just a single package, it is too expensive. Even services like "next day delivery" work on the principle of economy. You have trucks which are on other deliveries (economical ones) just drop off the "next day" packages between them. That makes these "unnaturally cheap." What do drones offer that a human courier doesn't? It cannot deliver inside most office buildings, you're still paying for fuel/maintenance/development/lost drones/etc. It likely has limited capacity. Plus let's look at competing technology coming up: Automated vehicles. How long until a delivery van can drive itself to your home, and then send you a text to meet it outside? That technology is coming with or without drone development, and solves some of a drone's inherent issues (poor capacity, lower maintenance, better economy, etc). I really think drones for deliveries won't go anywhere. It is just a fad thing because companies want to be cool. Too many problems/limitations/high costs, and few benefits. And as I said automated vehicles will kill any remaining shot drones may have had.
  - Zombieball 10y ago
    I think drone delivery makes a lot of sense in remote locations. What does a drone offer that a human courier doesn't? The cost savings from not having to haul a human meat bag hundreds of miles into the bush to hand deliver a parcel of medicine that could've been air dropped from a drone.
  - losteric 10y ago
    Drones are good for extremely fast point-to-point and costs go way down if they're mass-produced. Far, far cheaper than human couriers. Automated delivery vans are strong competitor but there's a lot more red tape involved with AI vans... drones might fill the gap until vans are on the road. By that point the cost of operating a drone might be so low that they still operate for expedite point-to-point shipping (think Amazon's Prime Now vs Prime Same-day shipping)
  - cstejerean 10y ago
    Except a lot of deliveries to residential areas happen when nobody is home. So getting a text to go outside and get my package from an automated vehicle won't help me at all. And this is where drones can come in handy. The drone could deliver the package from the truck to my doorstep. Sure, it may not work in urban areas with high rises but it will work just fine in single family house neighborhoods and that's a huge part of the country.
    - Zombieball 10y ago
      I think this highlights an important idea. The driverless vehicle and drone tech aren't mutually exclusive. You could potentially have a driverless box van that parks on a street corner and has drones pick packages off it and take them to your door.
      - arrosenberg 10y ago
        Without doing any of the math, this actually seems like the right solution. An automated truck that can drive around while a swarm of drones are continuously dropping off packages - basically an aircraft carrier.
- ocdtrekkie 10y ago
  I am honestly curious where the economics are going to come in. Drones aren't exactly a power efficient way to do something, and they're also heavily range limited in many cases. There are certain cases I could see it being really useful and effective, prescription drug deliveries make a lot of sense to do by drone, especially because of the possible urgency and mobility issues for many people needing them. And the fact that pill bottles are light.
  - maxerickson 10y ago
    $0.50 buys an awful lot of electricity. I would expect other costs to be a bigger deal than energy. These drones have minutes of flight time carrying kgs of weight with Watt-hours of energy consumption: http://www.dronesglobe.com/guide/heavy-lift-drones/ http://www.dronesglobe.com/guide/heavy-lift-drones/ As a sanity check, Googling on drone electricity costs has other people saying pennies per delivery.
    - IanCal 10y ago
      > As a sanity check, Googling on drone electricity costs has other people saying pennies per delivery. This makes sense, even assuming half an hour in the air for each delivery, the cost of residential electricity in the UK would mean ~5p of electricity for a 1KW drone making a delivery.
onurozkan 10y ago
first question in my mind; "in exchange for what?"
- awqrre 10y ago
  Google partnered with the government for data sharing (PRISM), so the Government could probably easily get any data that Google will be collecting...
smokeyj 10y ago
> Though the FAA released its final rules for drone operations in June, deliveries still aren't allowed. However, Alphabet has reportedly been testing them in the US anyway, skirting the regulations via a NASA waiver You see, all American's are allowed to be innovative. Some are just more allowed than others.
- fixermark 10y ago
  That's always been true. Figuring out where the rules are flexible and bending them is part of the game (in almost all games, really).
  - tedunangst 10y ago
    Something of a difference between finding the flexible nasa waiver rule and actually obtaining a nasa waiver.
deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
DenisM 10y ago
I'm amazed with fixed wing vertical takeoff. And landing. There don't seem to be any moving parts other than the rotor blades. There ought to be some clever software in there.
karma_vaccum123 10y ago
I still can't figure out how these things actually deliver the package. Do they just drop it on my front lawn? That doesn't seem desirable. Does it drop it at a centralized location because my street has thick tree coverage? Don't most streets have thick tree coverage?
apendleton 10y ago
This is pretty sloppy reporting. The single-wing tail-sitter drone design depicted in both the picture and video accompanying this article and discussed in the text had been abandoned as of last year: http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/03/17/google-working-on-new-drone-after-wing-design-failed/ http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/03/17/google-working-on-new... They do still have a program for drone delivery, but we know nothing about the drones involved except that these aren't them.
- wrsh07 10y ago
  It looks like they show different prototype designs on their webpage: http://www.solveforx.com/wing/our-approach/ http://www.solveforx.com/wing/our-approach/ [including the old design. But in the image, they show something with helicopter-style rotors]
david-given 10y ago
Every time I read Vernor Vinge's _Rainbows End_ I find myself wishing that someone would invent Up/Ex --- big pneumatic cannons which fire disposable cardboard gliders into the air; they glide down autonomously to the delivery site and then you tear then open and remove the package. Last mile delivery. I don't care that it probably wouldn't be practical, or feasible. They'd still be awesome.
microcolonel 10y ago
Let us hope that this doesn't turn into a protectionist regulatory nightmare.
eobropta 10y ago
My guess is that this article is just indirectly referring to the six UAS test sites that most companies can already test at for interesting UAS projects. https://www.faa.gov/news/fact_sheets/news_story.cfm?newsid=15575 https://www.faa.gov/news/fact_sheets/news_story.cfm?newsid=1...
kelvin0 10y ago
Well, it looks like some Narcos already did (and without the Feds approval): http://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/smugglers-used-drones-since-2012/ http://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/smugglers-used-drones-since-... Wonder how this new delivery method affects street prices for illegal substances?
CodeSheikh 10y ago
Google's Project Wing and Amazon's Prime Air are great projects and their advancements should be encouraged not discouraged. Now as far as the feasibility goes, "delivery by drone" should be limited to remote areas only where traditional delivery services do not have good infrastructure and network. Think a ranch in eastern Texas or Colorado vs a condo in Austin or New York. No one need these guys swarming the skyline of Manhattan when the city has one of the best delivery networks in the nation as many other major metropolitan cities would enjoy.

62 points by RileyKyeden 10y ago

nbmh 10y ago

Package delivery is one of the highest profile uses for drones, but I don't think it's a lasting one. Drones are unlikely to become cheap and efficient enough to eclipse current delivery techniques on a mass scale. Especially because traditional techniques will become much more effective as autonomous cars become feasible. However, lots of the technology being developed (robust autonomous flight, improved endurance & range, lower costs) will speed up developments for other applications that make better use of their strengths. Even more importantly, companies like Google are finally forcing the FAA to craft realistic regulations that don't completely cripple commercial applications. The FAA's lethargic pace has already severely hampered domestic development to the degree that Google had to do most of their development in Australia.

Klathmon 10y ago

From my perspective, it's pretty clear that "Delivery by drone" is going to happen. It might not be this year, or next year, or even in the next 5-10 years, but eventually it's going to happen. I think that if the FAA doesn't keep up with the pace that other countries are setting (in terms of regulation, laws, and rules surrounding out-of-sight drone usage), then eventually they will be pressured to rush some solutions which will probably have some bad consequences.

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
Someone1234 10y ago
From my perspective I think it is pretty clear that drone delivery is never going to happen and is just a fad. Firstly, let me just say, technologically drone delivery could definitely happen. There's no technical reason why not. But if we look at the history of freight it has always been about efficiency, and new competitors have always competed by finding ways of being cheaper. We already have less technical "drone delivery," it is called a courier, but outside of New York and a handful of other places they're niche. Nobody wants to pay to deliver just a single package, it is too expensive. Even services like "next day delivery" work on the principle of economy. You have trucks which are on other deliveries (economical ones) just drop off the "next day" packages between them. That makes these "unnaturally cheap." What do drones offer that a human courier doesn't? It cannot deliver inside most office buildings, you're still paying for fuel/maintenance/development/lost drones/etc. It likely has limited capacity. Plus let's look at competing technology coming up: Automated vehicles. How long until a delivery van can drive itself to your home, and then send you a text to meet it outside? That technology is coming with or without drone development, and solves some of a drone's inherent issues (poor capacity, lower maintenance, better economy, etc). I really think drones for deliveries won't go anywhere. It is just a fad thing because companies want to be cool. Too many problems/limitations/high costs, and few benefits. And as I said automated vehicles will kill any remaining shot drones may have had.
- Zombieball 10y ago
  I think drone delivery makes a lot of sense in remote locations. What does a drone offer that a human courier doesn't? The cost savings from not having to haul a human meat bag hundreds of miles into the bush to hand deliver a parcel of medicine that could've been air dropped from a drone.
- losteric 10y ago
  Drones are good for extremely fast point-to-point and costs go way down if they're mass-produced. Far, far cheaper than human couriers. Automated delivery vans are strong competitor but there's a lot more red tape involved with AI vans... drones might fill the gap until vans are on the road. By that point the cost of operating a drone might be so low that they still operate for expedite point-to-point shipping (think Amazon's Prime Now vs Prime Same-day shipping)
- cstejerean 10y ago
  Except a lot of deliveries to residential areas happen when nobody is home. So getting a text to go outside and get my package from an automated vehicle won't help me at all. And this is where drones can come in handy. The drone could deliver the package from the truck to my doorstep. Sure, it may not work in urban areas with high rises but it will work just fine in single family house neighborhoods and that's a huge part of the country.
  - Zombieball 10y ago
    I think this highlights an important idea. The driverless vehicle and drone tech aren't mutually exclusive. You could potentially have a driverless box van that parks on a street corner and has drones pick packages off it and take them to your door.
    - arrosenberg 10y ago
      Without doing any of the math, this actually seems like the right solution. An automated truck that can drive around while a swarm of drones are continuously dropping off packages - basically an aircraft carrier.
ocdtrekkie 10y ago
I am honestly curious where the economics are going to come in. Drones aren't exactly a power efficient way to do something, and they're also heavily range limited in many cases. There are certain cases I could see it being really useful and effective, prescription drug deliveries make a lot of sense to do by drone, especially because of the possible urgency and mobility issues for many people needing them. And the fact that pill bottles are light.
- maxerickson 10y ago
  $0.50 buys an awful lot of electricity. I would expect other costs to be a bigger deal than energy. These drones have minutes of flight time carrying kgs of weight with Watt-hours of energy consumption: http://www.dronesglobe.com/guide/heavy-lift-drones/ http://www.dronesglobe.com/guide/heavy-lift-drones/ As a sanity check, Googling on drone electricity costs has other people saying pennies per delivery.
  - IanCal 10y ago
    > As a sanity check, Googling on drone electricity costs has other people saying pennies per delivery. This makes sense, even assuming half an hour in the air for each delivery, the cost of residential electricity in the UK would mean ~5p of electricity for a 1KW drone making a delivery.

onurozkan 10y ago

first question in my mind; "in exchange for what?"

awqrre 10y ago
Google partnered with the government for data sharing (PRISM), so the Government could probably easily get any data that Google will be collecting...

smokeyj 10y ago

> Though the FAA released its final rules for drone operations in June, deliveries still aren't allowed. However, Alphabet has reportedly been testing them in the US anyway, skirting the regulations via a NASA waiver You see, all American's are allowed to be innovative. Some are just more allowed than others.

fixermark 10y ago
That's always been true. Figuring out where the rules are flexible and bending them is part of the game (in almost all games, really).
- tedunangst 10y ago
  Something of a difference between finding the flexible nasa waiver rule and actually obtaining a nasa waiver.

deleted 10y ago

[deleted]

DenisM 10y ago

I'm amazed with fixed wing vertical takeoff. And landing. There don't seem to be any moving parts other than the rotor blades. There ought to be some clever software in there.

karma_vaccum123 10y ago

I still can't figure out how these things actually deliver the package. Do they just drop it on my front lawn? That doesn't seem desirable. Does it drop it at a centralized location because my street has thick tree coverage? Don't most streets have thick tree coverage?

apendleton 10y ago

This is pretty sloppy reporting. The single-wing tail-sitter drone design depicted in both the picture and video accompanying this article and discussed in the text had been abandoned as of last year: http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/03/17/google-working-on-new-drone-after-wing-design-failed/ http://blogs.wsj.com/digits/2015/03/17/google-working-on-new... They do still have a program for drone delivery, but we know nothing about the drones involved except that these aren't them.

wrsh07 10y ago
It looks like they show different prototype designs on their webpage: http://www.solveforx.com/wing/our-approach/ http://www.solveforx.com/wing/our-approach/ [including the old design. But in the image, they show something with helicopter-style rotors]

david-given 10y ago

Every time I read Vernor Vinge's _Rainbows End_ I find myself wishing that someone would invent Up/Ex --- big pneumatic cannons which fire disposable cardboard gliders into the air; they glide down autonomously to the delivery site and then you tear then open and remove the package. Last mile delivery. I don't care that it probably wouldn't be practical, or feasible. They'd still be awesome.

microcolonel 10y ago

Let us hope that this doesn't turn into a protectionist regulatory nightmare.

eobropta 10y ago

My guess is that this article is just indirectly referring to the six UAS test sites that most companies can already test at for interesting UAS projects. https://www.faa.gov/news/fact_sheets/news_story.cfm?newsid=15575 https://www.faa.gov/news/fact_sheets/news_story.cfm?newsid=1...

kelvin0 10y ago

Well, it looks like some Narcos already did (and without the Feds approval): http://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/smugglers-used-drones-since-2012/ http://mexiconewsdaily.com/news/smugglers-used-drones-since-... Wonder how this new delivery method affects street prices for illegal substances?

CodeSheikh 10y ago

Google's Project Wing and Amazon's Prime Air are great projects and their advancements should be encouraged not discouraged. Now as far as the feasibility goes, "delivery by drone" should be limited to remote areas only where traditional delivery services do not have good infrastructure and network. Think a ranch in eastern Texas or Colorado vs a condo in Austin or New York. No one need these guys swarming the skyline of Manhattan when the city has one of the best delivery networks in the nation as many other major metropolitan cities would enjoy.