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> more than any decade in the past, > Humans have survived ice ages - civilisations and societies have not, to our knowledge - humans will likely survive this

by ralfd 10y ago

> more than any decade in the past, > Humans have survived ice ages - civilisations and societies have not, to our knowledge - humans will likely survive this - but this civilisation - who knows. From a historic perspective the CO2 were vastly higher for hundred of millions of years. Climate change will be a challenge (sea level rise for Calcutta, New York etc) but I doubt it will be a doomsday scenario.

madaxe_again 10y ago
Our civilisation is a chaotically stable system - but we have already seen what even phantasmic disruption (i.e. the subprime triggered global crash) can cause, and we are already seeing the tremors of political unstability in nations where such a thing seemed unthinkable only a few years ago - and these things do not happen in a vacuum. What I'm saying is that it doesn't require every human, every bureaucrat, every organ of state power to be utterly destroyed to bring about societal collapse - it actually requires rather little for affairs to descend into chaos. This is why we see governments investing increasingly in security apparatuses, as they realise that maintaining control now and in the future requires a firmer grasp than they have maintained. The US DoD saw climate change as a grave threat to national security over a decade ago, and they still do now. If you end up with mass migration from flooded areas, displaced people, you have crime and a need for greater enforcement - if you add food shortages to the mix, you end up with starving desperate people - again, not a majority, but enough to strain a system that operates within fine tolerances beyond its limits. I don't think that we're going to see the annihilation of the species, I don't think we're going to see the annihilation of all technological society or anything of the sort - but I don't think that we will survive quite as we do now, and I think it's going to be a pretty rough ride from here to wherever we're going.
- ObeyTheGuts 10y ago
  Only problem in world righ now apart from constant growing number of humans is isolation and borders, when u lock down shitty spots they just keep boiling pressure rizes and here comes da booom, opening all borders for free human movement all over the planet is first priority to avoid desperate getting more desperate and angry, its a win win for everyone more people have access to knowledge more will become smart, more smsrt people = better life for everyone.
- TheOtherHobbes 10y ago
  >Our civilisation is a chaotically stable system This. Worse, it's a chaotically stable system run by people who have no idea what a chaotically stable system is, or how little change is needed for the wheels to come off. I'm not even slightly optimistic, because as a species we have evolved exactly the wrong kind of management and decision-making processes to get through this. Survival requires being able to think at the species and planetary level. Too many humans are unable to think beyond their own individual short-term interests, with clan (tribal and class) interests coming a close second. Until that changes, planet-sized problems like climate change are inherently unsolvable.
  - antisthenes 10y ago
    Do you have a blog by any chance?
DennisP 10y ago
Yes but when the CO2 was vastly higher, solar output was lower. The last major CO2-related warming cycle was about 50 million years ago. Most life on the planet died off, with what survived mainly near the poles. Crocodiles swam in the Arctic.

by ralfd 10y ago

madaxe_again 10y ago

Our civilisation is a chaotically stable system - but we have already seen what even phantasmic disruption (i.e. the subprime triggered global crash) can cause, and we are already seeing the tremors of political unstability in nations where such a thing seemed unthinkable only a few years ago - and these things do not happen in a vacuum. What I'm saying is that it doesn't require every human, every bureaucrat, every organ of state power to be utterly destroyed to bring about societal collapse - it actually requires rather little for affairs to descend into chaos. This is why we see governments investing increasingly in security apparatuses, as they realise that maintaining control now and in the future requires a firmer grasp than they have maintained. The US DoD saw climate change as a grave threat to national security over a decade ago, and they still do now. If you end up with mass migration from flooded areas, displaced people, you have crime and a need for greater enforcement - if you add food shortages to the mix, you end up with starving desperate people - again, not a majority, but enough to strain a system that operates within fine tolerances beyond its limits. I don't think that we're going to see the annihilation of the species, I don't think we're going to see the annihilation of all technological society or anything of the sort - but I don't think that we will survive quite as we do now, and I think it's going to be a pretty rough ride from here to wherever we're going.

ObeyTheGuts 10y ago
Only problem in world righ now apart from constant growing number of humans is isolation and borders, when u lock down shitty spots they just keep boiling pressure rizes and here comes da booom, opening all borders for free human movement all over the planet is first priority to avoid desperate getting more desperate and angry, its a win win for everyone more people have access to knowledge more will become smart, more smsrt people = better life for everyone.
TheOtherHobbes 10y ago
>Our civilisation is a chaotically stable system This. Worse, it's a chaotically stable system run by people who have no idea what a chaotically stable system is, or how little change is needed for the wheels to come off. I'm not even slightly optimistic, because as a species we have evolved exactly the wrong kind of management and decision-making processes to get through this. Survival requires being able to think at the species and planetary level. Too many humans are unable to think beyond their own individual short-term interests, with clan (tribal and class) interests coming a close second. Until that changes, planet-sized problems like climate change are inherently unsolvable.
- antisthenes 10y ago
  Do you have a blog by any chance?

DennisP 10y ago

Yes but when the CO2 was vastly higher, solar output was lower. The last major CO2-related warming cycle was about 50 million years ago. Most life on the planet died off, with what survived mainly near the poles. Crocodiles swam in the Arctic.