3 ms·

I am always puzzled when analysts are seemingly baffled that a company cannot keep selling more and more product each year to a finite audience and never reach

I am always puzzled when analysts are seemingly baffled that a company cannot keep selling more and more product each year to a finite audience and never reach saturation point...

tfinniga 10y ago
I really liked this small article about exponential growth. Exponentials don't really exist in nature, there are pretty much always limits. http://radar.oreilly.com/2007/11/its-not-exponential-its-sigmoi.html http://radar.oreilly.com/2007/11/its-not-exponential-its-sig...
- Fomite 10y ago
  Pretty much this. Growth to carrying capacity looks a lot like exponential growth for a bit and then stops. Assuming it is exponential is a recipe for sadness and disappointing earnings reports.
adventured 10y ago
Most people - including analysts - bought into the hype that nearly every person on earth would have a smartphone soon. Instead, smartphone sales growth has fallen down to practically nothing globally. Apple is already missing the last growth wave, which is mostly made up of very cheap Android phones in India and China. Those people also bought into the notion that Apple was going to dominate China, because of their early success there. It was talked up non-stop by Tim Cook. Instead, China will become an epic disaster for Apple, as they melt market share endlessly to nationalism and protectionism. The Chinese will only get more aggressive with Apple as the iPhone gets weaker as a product inside of China.
- jaegerpicker 10y ago
  40 million for the iPhone alone is practically nothing!?!? Sure it's down but people on HN are a little crazy acting like Apple is going to go under because of this.
  - chrisseaton 10y ago
    The person you are replying to was talking about growth in sales. You've given a single yearly sales figure, which doesn't tell you anything about growth on its own.

3 ms·

I am always puzzled when analysts are seemingly baffled that a company cannot keep selling more and more product each year to a finite audience and never reach

by cyberferret 10y ago

I am always puzzled when analysts are seemingly baffled that a company cannot keep selling more and more product each year to a finite audience and never reach saturation point...

tfinniga 10y ago
I really liked this small article about exponential growth. Exponentials don't really exist in nature, there are pretty much always limits. http://radar.oreilly.com/2007/11/its-not-exponential-its-sigmoi.html http://radar.oreilly.com/2007/11/its-not-exponential-its-sig...
- Fomite 10y ago
  Pretty much this. Growth to carrying capacity looks a lot like exponential growth for a bit and then stops. Assuming it is exponential is a recipe for sadness and disappointing earnings reports.
adventured 10y ago
Most people - including analysts - bought into the hype that nearly every person on earth would have a smartphone soon. Instead, smartphone sales growth has fallen down to practically nothing globally. Apple is already missing the last growth wave, which is mostly made up of very cheap Android phones in India and China. Those people also bought into the notion that Apple was going to dominate China, because of their early success there. It was talked up non-stop by Tim Cook. Instead, China will become an epic disaster for Apple, as they melt market share endlessly to nationalism and protectionism. The Chinese will only get more aggressive with Apple as the iPhone gets weaker as a product inside of China.
- jaegerpicker 10y ago
  40 million for the iPhone alone is practically nothing!?!? Sure it's down but people on HN are a little crazy acting like Apple is going to go under because of this.
  - chrisseaton 10y ago
    The person you are replying to was talking about growth in sales. You've given a single yearly sales figure, which doesn't tell you anything about growth on its own.