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Two questions: First - are the armies of the countries bordering south china sea able to win armed conflict with China? Second - is the US willing to risk war

Two questions: First - are the armies of the countries bordering south china sea able to win armed conflict with China? Second - is the US willing to risk war with nuclear armed China over that? If the both answers are No - then this is neither self evident or absurdity. Might makes right. And China probably has enough of it.

jayess 10y ago
Not sure why you're getting downvoted. Your comment is a dose of realpolitik.
- throwanem 10y ago
  Realpolitik is not well loved on Hacker News.
- hx87 10y ago
  It's a conflict between prescriptive and descriptive readings of the issue. Prescriptively, China has no historical reason to the territory enclosed by the nine-dash line. None of the preceding Chinese governments and dynasties ever held de jure or de facto sovereignty over that area. There's just no precedent for the claim. Descriptively, if China wants the territory badly enough, it has a good chance of taking and keeping it, albeit at the cost of alienating the crap out of everyone else for at least a generation, if not more. Realpolitik does not prescribe, but only describes.
seanmcdirmid 10y ago
As long as the Americans care, China's options are extremely limited. But even without the Americans, they are trying to claim territory far away from hainan and right next to other countries who don't agree with them. Their naval projection capabilities are quite limited, and you can only do so much with an expanded atoll.
niftich 10y ago
These are excellent points. Obviously, the extend of the claimed area is... 'creative', as in there is no precedent for such a bulbous, remote extension of claimed seas by any other sovereign state. It's disputed by several parties, in claims that are more in line with common international practice. But given China's island and airstrip buildup in the Spratly Islands, they're determined to project power into this region. The question will come, will anyone other than an international court that lacks the ability for enforcement check them on their maneuvers? As the parent comment says, if no one is willing to risk nuclear war over a few reefs and fisheries (and the uncertain, vague promise of hydrocarbon extraction), then the status quo will stand, and China is intent on nudging the status quo its way.
cachichas 10y ago
US & The Philippines have a Mutual Defense Treaty in place. It is highly beneficial for the US that China does not have full control. So if push comes to shove, the US will be right there. I also believe that other countries such as France, etc... has backed the ruling and are in full support of the 5 other countries
Freak_NL 10y ago
China appears to be testing if they can push this far. It's not just a matter of military power; China's economy depends on their exports to Europe and Northern America (so sanctions can really hit hard), and shipping through the South China Sea is a big deal to Europe, Northern America, South Korea, and Japan. China is actively trying to influence the situation with soft power as well. The Chinese ambassador in The Netherlands paid for a full page advert in a national newspaper to publish a letter condemning the 'illegitimate' court that ruled on this dispute with The Philippines. The fact that he couldn't get his letter published normally (and for free) in the op/ed sections of any Dutch newspaper is telling though. I suspect they are going for an absurd claim in order to 'graciously' come to a compromise of about half of that (certainly including the Paracel Islands) after a while, but the situation is certainly unique. They are more than likely strengthened in their confidence by the lack of consequences of the Crimean annexation by Russia (although the economic sanctions hurt Russia quite bad).
- googletazer 10y ago
  Imo they are ideologically strengthened for historical reasons. You can't grab pieces of the world for two centuries and subvert democratically elected governments with military dictatorships that are favorable to you and then once a strong contender appears tell them its the 21st century now and not how things are done anymore. They aren't stupid and they know that might makes right. China is on an upswing trajectory and their people know it from increases in real income for vast majority of the population. It was the strongest country in the world for centuries, and they'll regain that title again, eventually. Russia lost too much brainpower in the past 25 years. Too many Russians and Russian Jews emigrated to US to use their PhDs to make money on Wall St. They're not coming back, and it will take another 25 years to grow a new generation of minds to lead Russia. Yes, Chinese students go to foreign universities but in general China doesn't have a brain drain problem, and thats why they'll win.
  - douche 10y ago
    They're on the upswing until the bubble pops, anyway. They've got some demographic issues coming down the pike at them, as well. I hope things don't deteriorate into massive bloodshed and revolt when the music stops and the economy backslides, but that's what has tended to happen in the past, and Chinese history is more cyclical than most...
panarky 10y ago
By your reasoning, if a conflict with China is not worth risking nuclear war, then it must be resolved in China's favor? Nuclear powers have plenty of conflicting interests, and they exercise many forms of power to influence the outcome. There is no reason a conflict like this must inevitably escalate to nuclear threats.

jayess 10y ago

Not sure why you're getting downvoted. Your comment is a dose of realpolitik.

throwanem 10y ago
Realpolitik is not well loved on Hacker News.
hx87 10y ago
It's a conflict between prescriptive and descriptive readings of the issue. Prescriptively, China has no historical reason to the territory enclosed by the nine-dash line. None of the preceding Chinese governments and dynasties ever held de jure or de facto sovereignty over that area. There's just no precedent for the claim. Descriptively, if China wants the territory badly enough, it has a good chance of taking and keeping it, albeit at the cost of alienating the crap out of everyone else for at least a generation, if not more. Realpolitik does not prescribe, but only describes.

seanmcdirmid 10y ago

As long as the Americans care, China's options are extremely limited. But even without the Americans, they are trying to claim territory far away from hainan and right next to other countries who don't agree with them. Their naval projection capabilities are quite limited, and you can only do so much with an expanded atoll.

niftich 10y ago

These are excellent points. Obviously, the extend of the claimed area is... 'creative', as in there is no precedent for such a bulbous, remote extension of claimed seas by any other sovereign state. It's disputed by several parties, in claims that are more in line with common international practice. But given China's island and airstrip buildup in the Spratly Islands, they're determined to project power into this region. The question will come, will anyone other than an international court that lacks the ability for enforcement check them on their maneuvers? As the parent comment says, if no one is willing to risk nuclear war over a few reefs and fisheries (and the uncertain, vague promise of hydrocarbon extraction), then the status quo will stand, and China is intent on nudging the status quo its way.

cachichas 10y ago

US & The Philippines have a Mutual Defense Treaty in place. It is highly beneficial for the US that China does not have full control. So if push comes to shove, the US will be right there. I also believe that other countries such as France, etc... has backed the ruling and are in full support of the 5 other countries

Freak_NL 10y ago

China appears to be testing if they can push this far. It's not just a matter of military power; China's economy depends on their exports to Europe and Northern America (so sanctions can really hit hard), and shipping through the South China Sea is a big deal to Europe, Northern America, South Korea, and Japan. China is actively trying to influence the situation with soft power as well. The Chinese ambassador in The Netherlands paid for a full page advert in a national newspaper to publish a letter condemning the 'illegitimate' court that ruled on this dispute with The Philippines. The fact that he couldn't get his letter published normally (and for free) in the op/ed sections of any Dutch newspaper is telling though. I suspect they are going for an absurd claim in order to 'graciously' come to a compromise of about half of that (certainly including the Paracel Islands) after a while, but the situation is certainly unique. They are more than likely strengthened in their confidence by the lack of consequences of the Crimean annexation by Russia (although the economic sanctions hurt Russia quite bad).

googletazer 10y ago
Imo they are ideologically strengthened for historical reasons. You can't grab pieces of the world for two centuries and subvert democratically elected governments with military dictatorships that are favorable to you and then once a strong contender appears tell them its the 21st century now and not how things are done anymore. They aren't stupid and they know that might makes right. China is on an upswing trajectory and their people know it from increases in real income for vast majority of the population. It was the strongest country in the world for centuries, and they'll regain that title again, eventually. Russia lost too much brainpower in the past 25 years. Too many Russians and Russian Jews emigrated to US to use their PhDs to make money on Wall St. They're not coming back, and it will take another 25 years to grow a new generation of minds to lead Russia. Yes, Chinese students go to foreign universities but in general China doesn't have a brain drain problem, and thats why they'll win.
- douche 10y ago
  They're on the upswing until the bubble pops, anyway. They've got some demographic issues coming down the pike at them, as well. I hope things don't deteriorate into massive bloodshed and revolt when the music stops and the economy backslides, but that's what has tended to happen in the past, and Chinese history is more cyclical than most...

panarky 10y ago

By your reasoning, if a conflict with China is not worth risking nuclear war, then it must be resolved in China's favor? Nuclear powers have plenty of conflicting interests, and they exercise many forms of power to influence the outcome. There is no reason a conflict like this must inevitably escalate to nuclear threats.