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The counter-argument to our fear of planned obsolescence here is the ridiculous speed of technological improvement in LEDs relative to incandescent lighting. L

The counter-argument to our fear of planned obsolescence here is the ridiculous speed of technological improvement in LEDs relative to incandescent lighting. LED's cost per lumen falls by a factor of 10 every decade (see Haitz's Law), while a user's actual lighting needs may never exceed 800 lumens for an standard A19 bulb. Any attempt to form a cartel in this market would be swiftly defeated by ever-falling unit economics. Far from a cartel, we should let the government create a standardized LED lifespan rating based on the actual needs of consumers. For example, if we know the average renovation cycle for single family houses in the US is ten years, then we should make LED bulbs that are rated for 10 years. This way, manufacturers can deliver these products at at the most affordable price point, and consumers for the most part won't have to worry about replacing their lights ever again.

Spooky23 10y ago
LEDs suck less, and are much better than garbage CFL, but are still more expensive and less versatile than the old bulbs, particularly when you need a bright bulb.
- wtallis 10y ago
  Fortunately, you only need a bright bulb for flashlights and for fixtures that are intended for incandescent bulbs. For general interior lighting, a large array/string of relatively dim LEDs is usually fine.
  - _ph_ 10y ago
    Not sure why you would think anyone today would use an incandescent bulb in a flashlight. This is where LEDs just took over. I have a pencil sizes LED flashlight that matches the brightness of my Maglite only when I put it in power-saving mode - otherwise its about 10x as bright.
- srtjstjsj 10y ago
  except that many LEDs flicker horribly because they have bad electronics, and the consumer has no way to judge quality.
  - snuxoll 10y ago
    This really is the crux, unlike fluorescent (including CFL) and traditional incandescent lamps LED's are a lot more sensitive to having consistent DC power, a crappy little capacitive dropper is not appropriate to power them, yet a lot of manufacturers decided to cheap out on an additional diode to build a proper bridge rectifier. The amount of electronics to properly drive an chain of LED's is so simple and cheap I really can't figure out why they are shaving tenths a penny or two (considering the bulk rates they can get these parts at) on lamps that are sold at pretty high profit margins. I really wish there was someone like bigclive that just tore down LED lamps sold in the US and posted reviews on Amazon, etc. about the internal driver circuitry.
    - Spooky23 10y ago
      Your comment captures the problem far better. For 100 years, if a bulb burned out or you bought a lamp, you went a bought a sodding lightbulb. The choices were clear... good brand/shit brand. 20/40/60/75/100/150/3way. Soft white or not soft white. They cost like a quarter. Now the Home Depot lightbulb aisle is as complicated as the screw and fastener aisle. My guess is the average bigbox home store has 50 SKUs on the shelf for 60 watt equivalent bulbs. It's ridiculous.
      - Symbiote 10y ago
        Go to Ikea. They have about four bulbs for each socket (pear and candle, dim and bright), and the ones I bought a year ago are very good. I think they have more incentive to sell good quality bulbs than the average store, since they sell the fitting and market being environmentally friendly. Of the ones I bought, some were made in China and some in Germany.
        10y ago
Retra 10y ago
"Consumers for the most part" do not regularly renovate their houses. Most of them are renters. And paying someone else to change your lightbulbs doesn't protect you from having to get them changed.
- seanp2k2 10y ago
  This. I know that the "10 years" was just an example, and I don't have the relevant data on home remodels, but 10 years on average in the US seems ridiculously fast to me. I would guess that the average is more like 30-40 for those doing renovations, and like parent says, many aren't renovating.
Stratoscope 10y ago
So instead of a private cartel regulating light bulb lifespan and fining manufacturers whose bulbs last more or less than that time, you want the government to do the same?
- Dylan16807 10y ago
  There is a pretty big difference between a mandatory lifetime and a minimum lifetime. As far as I know, minimum fitness-for-purpose standards are pretty good for the consumer.
  - Stratoscope 10y ago
    That's a fair criticism. I did conflate two different things there, and I was needlessly snarky. (And I upvoted your comment for pointing it out.) I also failed to address the thing that bothered me in the comment I replied to: > Far from a cartel, we should let the government create a standardized LED lifespan rating based on the actual needs of consumers. For example, if we know the average renovation cycle for single family houses in the US is ten years, then we should make LED bulbs that are rated for 10 years. Why should it be the government's business to determine what "the actual needs of consumers" are? How does the government know what the average renovation cycle for single family homes is? What about people who want to spend more for longer-lasting bulbs, or spend less for shorter-lived ones? What about other types of homes that don't fit the government-specified "average renovation cycle"? How do companies innovate when the government has said, "This is the standard specification for an LED light bulb. You will make them to our standard or you won't make them at all." I just find the very concept offensive that this should be any business of the government. Life is full of trade-offs, and it seems to me that the government - the instrument of force - is least capable of anyone to make these trade-offs. Regardless of my personal feelings, there is a real cost in getting the government involved in these things. Government intervention never comes for free.
    - DanBC 10y ago
      > Why should it be the government's business to determine what "the actual needs of consumers" are? The government has signed up to various international treaties around ewaste and other eco indicators. Consumers only buy on price. Government sets minimum standards, which forces manufacturers to build their minimum cost devices to that standard. Manfs can also offer better devices for more money. > How do companies innovate when the government has said, "This is the standard specification for an LED light bulb. You will make them to our standard or you won't make them at all." Your mobile phone is intensely regulated across a number of different regulators. There seems to be plenty of innovation in cellphones.

Spooky23 10y ago

LEDs suck less, and are much better than garbage CFL, but are still more expensive and less versatile than the old bulbs, particularly when you need a bright bulb.

wtallis 10y ago
Fortunately, you only need a bright bulb for flashlights and for fixtures that are intended for incandescent bulbs. For general interior lighting, a large array/string of relatively dim LEDs is usually fine.
- _ph_ 10y ago
  Not sure why you would think anyone today would use an incandescent bulb in a flashlight. This is where LEDs just took over. I have a pencil sizes LED flashlight that matches the brightness of my Maglite only when I put it in power-saving mode - otherwise its about 10x as bright.
srtjstjsj 10y ago
except that many LEDs flicker horribly because they have bad electronics, and the consumer has no way to judge quality.
- snuxoll 10y ago
  This really is the crux, unlike fluorescent (including CFL) and traditional incandescent lamps LED's are a lot more sensitive to having consistent DC power, a crappy little capacitive dropper is not appropriate to power them, yet a lot of manufacturers decided to cheap out on an additional diode to build a proper bridge rectifier. The amount of electronics to properly drive an chain of LED's is so simple and cheap I really can't figure out why they are shaving tenths a penny or two (considering the bulk rates they can get these parts at) on lamps that are sold at pretty high profit margins. I really wish there was someone like bigclive that just tore down LED lamps sold in the US and posted reviews on Amazon, etc. about the internal driver circuitry.
  - Spooky23 10y ago
    Your comment captures the problem far better. For 100 years, if a bulb burned out or you bought a lamp, you went a bought a sodding lightbulb. The choices were clear... good brand/shit brand. 20/40/60/75/100/150/3way. Soft white or not soft white. They cost like a quarter. Now the Home Depot lightbulb aisle is as complicated as the screw and fastener aisle. My guess is the average bigbox home store has 50 SKUs on the shelf for 60 watt equivalent bulbs. It's ridiculous.
    - Symbiote 10y ago
      Go to Ikea. They have about four bulbs for each socket (pear and candle, dim and bright), and the ones I bought a year ago are very good. I think they have more incentive to sell good quality bulbs than the average store, since they sell the fitting and market being environmentally friendly. Of the ones I bought, some were made in China and some in Germany.
      - 10y ago

Retra 10y ago

"Consumers for the most part" do not regularly renovate their houses. Most of them are renters. And paying someone else to change your lightbulbs doesn't protect you from having to get them changed.

seanp2k2 10y ago
This. I know that the "10 years" was just an example, and I don't have the relevant data on home remodels, but 10 years on average in the US seems ridiculously fast to me. I would guess that the average is more like 30-40 for those doing renovations, and like parent says, many aren't renovating.

Stratoscope 10y ago

So instead of a private cartel regulating light bulb lifespan and fining manufacturers whose bulbs last more or less than that time, you want the government to do the same?

Dylan16807 10y ago
There is a pretty big difference between a mandatory lifetime and a minimum lifetime. As far as I know, minimum fitness-for-purpose standards are pretty good for the consumer.
- Stratoscope 10y ago
  That's a fair criticism. I did conflate two different things there, and I was needlessly snarky. (And I upvoted your comment for pointing it out.) I also failed to address the thing that bothered me in the comment I replied to: > Far from a cartel, we should let the government create a standardized LED lifespan rating based on the actual needs of consumers. For example, if we know the average renovation cycle for single family houses in the US is ten years, then we should make LED bulbs that are rated for 10 years. Why should it be the government's business to determine what "the actual needs of consumers" are? How does the government know what the average renovation cycle for single family homes is? What about people who want to spend more for longer-lasting bulbs, or spend less for shorter-lived ones? What about other types of homes that don't fit the government-specified "average renovation cycle"? How do companies innovate when the government has said, "This is the standard specification for an LED light bulb. You will make them to our standard or you won't make them at all." I just find the very concept offensive that this should be any business of the government. Life is full of trade-offs, and it seems to me that the government - the instrument of force - is least capable of anyone to make these trade-offs. Regardless of my personal feelings, there is a real cost in getting the government involved in these things. Government intervention never comes for free.
  - DanBC 10y ago
    > Why should it be the government's business to determine what "the actual needs of consumers" are? The government has signed up to various international treaties around ewaste and other eco indicators. Consumers only buy on price. Government sets minimum standards, which forces manufacturers to build their minimum cost devices to that standard. Manfs can also offer better devices for more money. > How do companies innovate when the government has said, "This is the standard specification for an LED light bulb. You will make them to our standard or you won't make them at all." Your mobile phone is intensely regulated across a number of different regulators. There seems to be plenty of innovation in cellphones.