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Anyone have a take on how successful this is likely to be? Both sides are claiming victory and that they've beaten the other side, naturally. Propaganda is eve

by scarmig 10y ago

Anyone have a take on how successful this is likely to be? Both sides are claiming victory and that they've beaten the other side, naturally. Propaganda is everywhere. The only thing I figure is that since Erdogan is calling for a mass uprising in the streets, the status quo has him losing. He needs to radically change the dynamics of the situation to stay in power, and mass protests and displays of martyrdom in the streets of Istanbul is the way to do it. Otherwise, if everything were under his control, he'd be encouraging people to stay inside while his forces stabilized the situation. Is that a fair read of the situation?

dzdt 10y ago
Its not even clear yet who the sides are. Erdoğan released a statement that Gülen supporters (a religious group) were behind the coup, while the military seems to be claiming it is a secular coup, and has not named a leader behind it.
- hasenj 10y ago
  I agree with GP. Erdogan is clearly trying to create confusion. If it really was a small faction, things would be under control by now.
- vmorgulis 10y ago
  The both can be true. I think the coup is related to the recent position of Erdogan towards Russia.
  - _nedR 10y ago
    This. Turkey apologized to Russia, and normalized relationships with Russia and Israel. Also their Foreign minister talked about mending ties with Syria - Assad's Syria. All this happened in the space of a few weeks. It was such an about-face from their past postutring. I guess this puts things in context.
- tremon 10y ago
  Lots of background in this comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12104221 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12104221 Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan used the Gulen movement as allies to gain power. However, once in power, Erdogan turned on Gulen, attempted to purge his followers from the police and judiciary, then used the movement as a "fifth-column" type scapegoat. secularism in Turkey was born at the point of a bayonet. [..] Turkey's government is both secular and democratic, due to the founding father of Turkey, Kemal Ataturk. While Ataturk was a brutal dictator, he also used that power to rebuild a Turkish national identity, secularize the government, and eventually transition to democracy. As many news sources have pointed out, the military sees itself as safeguarding the vision and (secular) state structure of Ataturk, and regularly purges the government when its leaders violate Ataturk's premise. So it is most likely that the coup is secular in nature, and it is Erdogan's spin that is blaming Gulen.
zygomega 10y ago
He's sending them out to die perhaps, in his name. Is he out there? Not a nice move.
- makomk 10y ago
  He's apparently cut off the state TV channel that was taken over by the military and was announcing a curfew too. Sending people out to perhaps die indeed.
BukhariH 10y ago
I wouldn't be so sure about Erdogan losing power. Erdogan has an extreme amount of support within the country not just from the people but from the Turkish intelligence services & military aswell. A lot of people have elevated him to the same level as Ataturk. I'm about 80% sure Erdogan will manage to retain power from just what I know about Turkish politics - which isn't a lot to be honest. Early days right now but seems like the coup forces have advantage but that's largely because a lot of the soldiers don't realize that it's not the Generals who approved this but rather some lower level colonels. Once, the soldiers find out they're defying the generals then they'll likely back down and Erdogan will retain power. But once again - very early days. EDIT: Grammar - I typed the comment way too fast.
- enraged_camel 10y ago
  The majority of people who support Erdogan are simply opportunists. They don't actually care about him. He has managed to maintain power and influence mostly by bullying and bribing people and illegally detaining or otherwise silencing those who speak against him. We're about to see just how resilient his house of cards is.
  - nononosisisi 10y ago
    So he is like Chavez? I hope the country does no end up like Venezuela.
- watermelon59 10y ago
  Tangential, but why do people support Erdogan? From what I hear he's a terrible leader and moving towards a full dictatorship.
  - revelation 10y ago
    Economic improvement. Under Erdogan, Turkey has gotten considerably richer, no particular thanks to him but the same tide that lifts a farmer out of poverty keeps his islamic government afloat while making a mockery of Ataturk.
  - 10y ago
frankquist 10y ago
This assumes Erdogan is rational or that he would be quite concerned with the lives of those going outside (something which could be true, but his dealings with earlier uprisings give me doubt). Mass protests against the coup (even if Erdogan is on the winning hand) could solidify his support and give a signal to the military that future coups might not be succesful.
- letitleak 10y ago
  His moves certainly show that he doesn't care about anyone but himself and his power. When he arrested parts of the military during their coup practices he created this situation of violence. If he stepped down as more rational PMs did when given hints, he would be living in luxury but in house arrest or exile. The other path is a smaller less official coup, and that ends in his death and longer term instability from the poor and unpredictable transfers of power without the legitimacy of the generals..
Animats 10y ago
No. Erdogan called for people to take to the streets, and within an hour, the airport and bridge were filled with thousands of people waving flags. (From pictures, all male.) That's popular support. The military is not attacking the crowds. The military presence was apparently not that big, concentrating on a few key spots. A coup has to succeed within the first few hours. Control must be established before opposition mobilizes. If the coup drags on, it fails. Failure is either a loss or a civil war. Suggested reading: "Coup d'État: A Practical Handbook"[1] [1] https://www.amazon.com/dp/0674737261 https://www.amazon.com/dp/0674737261
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- selimthegrim 10y ago
  Uh, wasn't some wannabe tinpot dictator or other found shot with that at his side while trying to use it? Doesn't bode well for its success...
  - dragonwriter 10y ago
    If you haven't internalized whatever working principles you are using enough that you can stop keeping the handbook at your side, you're probably not ready to carry out a coup. However well chosen those principles are for the task...
- tobias3 10y ago
  What should they have done (additionally)? E.g. take out/over all civil communication infrastructure, such as ISPs, cellular networks, phone landlines? Then enforce the curfew with actual deadly force (since they are not a police force with riot gear...)?
  - Animats 10y ago
    Capture the Prime Minister and President. The coup leaders failed to do that.
gunn 10y ago
Too early to call, but I'd put my money against the coup succeeding: Al Jazeera - "Turkey 1st army commander Umit Dundar on TV says army does not support coup". Assuming he's fully in charge there, that represents 120,000 army personnel. Also the opposition party is anti-coup and plenty of people are on the streets (presumably) in support of the government.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- fdsaaf 10y ago
  Right: either the coup loses quickly or Turkey enters an extended civil war, with the military divided against itself. There's still enough military support for the coup to bomb the parliament building into dust as I write this comment.
fweespeech 10y ago
> Anyone have a take on how successful this is likely to be? I'm pretty sure at this point it will likely fail, Erdogan will retain power and will have carte blanche. Similar to Chavez when the people put him back in power. Its likely a very dark future for Turkey in the form of a civil war or total collapse of secular power. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36809083 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36809083 > He was seen surrounded by cheering supporters, saying in a live TV speech that the coup attempt was an "act of treason" and the army must be cleansed. Starting with the cleansing of the Army, likely.

by scarmig 10y ago

dzdt 10y ago

Its not even clear yet who the sides are. Erdoğan released a statement that Gülen supporters (a religious group) were behind the coup, while the military seems to be claiming it is a secular coup, and has not named a leader behind it.

hasenj 10y ago
I agree with GP. Erdogan is clearly trying to create confusion. If it really was a small faction, things would be under control by now.
vmorgulis 10y ago
The both can be true. I think the coup is related to the recent position of Erdogan towards Russia.
- _nedR 10y ago
  This. Turkey apologized to Russia, and normalized relationships with Russia and Israel. Also their Foreign minister talked about mending ties with Syria - Assad's Syria. All this happened in the space of a few weeks. It was such an about-face from their past postutring. I guess this puts things in context.
tremon 10y ago
Lots of background in this comment: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12104221 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12104221 Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan used the Gulen movement as allies to gain power. However, once in power, Erdogan turned on Gulen, attempted to purge his followers from the police and judiciary, then used the movement as a "fifth-column" type scapegoat. secularism in Turkey was born at the point of a bayonet. [..] Turkey's government is both secular and democratic, due to the founding father of Turkey, Kemal Ataturk. While Ataturk was a brutal dictator, he also used that power to rebuild a Turkish national identity, secularize the government, and eventually transition to democracy. As many news sources have pointed out, the military sees itself as safeguarding the vision and (secular) state structure of Ataturk, and regularly purges the government when its leaders violate Ataturk's premise. So it is most likely that the coup is secular in nature, and it is Erdogan's spin that is blaming Gulen.

zygomega 10y ago

He's sending them out to die perhaps, in his name. Is he out there? Not a nice move.

makomk 10y ago
He's apparently cut off the state TV channel that was taken over by the military and was announcing a curfew too. Sending people out to perhaps die indeed.

BukhariH 10y ago

I wouldn't be so sure about Erdogan losing power. Erdogan has an extreme amount of support within the country not just from the people but from the Turkish intelligence services & military aswell. A lot of people have elevated him to the same level as Ataturk. I'm about 80% sure Erdogan will manage to retain power from just what I know about Turkish politics - which isn't a lot to be honest. Early days right now but seems like the coup forces have advantage but that's largely because a lot of the soldiers don't realize that it's not the Generals who approved this but rather some lower level colonels. Once, the soldiers find out they're defying the generals then they'll likely back down and Erdogan will retain power. But once again - very early days. EDIT: Grammar - I typed the comment way too fast.

enraged_camel 10y ago
The majority of people who support Erdogan are simply opportunists. They don't actually care about him. He has managed to maintain power and influence mostly by bullying and bribing people and illegally detaining or otherwise silencing those who speak against him. We're about to see just how resilient his house of cards is.
- nononosisisi 10y ago
  So he is like Chavez? I hope the country does no end up like Venezuela.
watermelon59 10y ago
Tangential, but why do people support Erdogan? From what I hear he's a terrible leader and moving towards a full dictatorship.
- revelation 10y ago
  Economic improvement. Under Erdogan, Turkey has gotten considerably richer, no particular thanks to him but the same tide that lifts a farmer out of poverty keeps his islamic government afloat while making a mockery of Ataturk.
- 10y ago

frankquist 10y ago

This assumes Erdogan is rational or that he would be quite concerned with the lives of those going outside (something which could be true, but his dealings with earlier uprisings give me doubt). Mass protests against the coup (even if Erdogan is on the winning hand) could solidify his support and give a signal to the military that future coups might not be succesful.

letitleak 10y ago
His moves certainly show that he doesn't care about anyone but himself and his power. When he arrested parts of the military during their coup practices he created this situation of violence. If he stepped down as more rational PMs did when given hints, he would be living in luxury but in house arrest or exile. The other path is a smaller less official coup, and that ends in his death and longer term instability from the poor and unpredictable transfers of power without the legitimacy of the generals..

Animats 10y ago

No. Erdogan called for people to take to the streets, and within an hour, the airport and bridge were filled with thousands of people waving flags. (From pictures, all male.) That's popular support. The military is not attacking the crowds. The military presence was apparently not that big, concentrating on a few key spots. A coup has to succeed within the first few hours. Control must be established before opposition mobilizes. If the coup drags on, it fails. Failure is either a loss or a civil war. Suggested reading: "Coup d'État: A Practical Handbook"[1] [1] https://www.amazon.com/dp/0674737261 https://www.amazon.com/dp/0674737261

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
selimthegrim 10y ago
Uh, wasn't some wannabe tinpot dictator or other found shot with that at his side while trying to use it? Doesn't bode well for its success...
- dragonwriter 10y ago
  If you haven't internalized whatever working principles you are using enough that you can stop keeping the handbook at your side, you're probably not ready to carry out a coup. However well chosen those principles are for the task...
tobias3 10y ago
What should they have done (additionally)? E.g. take out/over all civil communication infrastructure, such as ISPs, cellular networks, phone landlines? Then enforce the curfew with actual deadly force (since they are not a police force with riot gear...)?
- Animats 10y ago
  Capture the Prime Minister and President. The coup leaders failed to do that.

gunn 10y ago

Too early to call, but I'd put my money against the coup succeeding: Al Jazeera - "Turkey 1st army commander Umit Dundar on TV says army does not support coup". Assuming he's fully in charge there, that represents 120,000 army personnel. Also the opposition party is anti-coup and plenty of people are on the streets (presumably) in support of the government.

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
fdsaaf 10y ago
Right: either the coup loses quickly or Turkey enters an extended civil war, with the military divided against itself. There's still enough military support for the coup to bomb the parliament building into dust as I write this comment.

fweespeech 10y ago

> Anyone have a take on how successful this is likely to be? I'm pretty sure at this point it will likely fail, Erdogan will retain power and will have carte blanche. Similar to Chavez when the people put him back in power. Its likely a very dark future for Turkey in the form of a civil war or total collapse of secular power. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36809083 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36809083 > He was seen surrounded by cheering supporters, saying in a live TV speech that the coup attempt was an "act of treason" and the army must be cleansed. Starting with the cleansing of the Army, likely.