5 ms·

Hardly any surprise. A tiny piece in the massive chess game that is China's rising military dominance and the west's declining ditto. This will play out over

by chvid 10y ago

Hardly any surprise. A tiny piece in the massive chess game that is China's rising military dominance and the west's declining ditto. This will play out over decades and is at its heart driven by a Chinese economy that expands faster the west's.

adventured 10y ago
China's economy isn't expanding faster than the West's. It was. China's economy is hardly growing at all, and is no longer growing organically. They require extremely vast amounts of new debt to continue growing at just a few percent per year. That's a scenario they can't maintain going forward. The US economy by itself is expanding as much as China in dollar GDP terms, and is doing so without taking on the kind of debt that China is. Per dollar of debt taken on, the US is getting two to three times as much GDP growth as what China is. China's economy is growing at 2% to 3% currently; with the US economy ~65% larger it can grow quite a bit slower and still outpace China. $18 trillion * 2% = $360 billion $11 trillion * 3% = $330 billion China is unlikely to ever be the extremely fast growth economy it previously was. All the easy economic growth is long since over. And this is without discussing the inevitability that China will run into regular recessions like all other economies do once their growth slows down to normal levels (and ignoring that China is also likely to face far harsher consequences with economic slowdowns given their system of government; which keeps the Chinese leaders up at night). For example they've been in an industrial recession for at least a year now, and their service sector has barely shown any growth. There's no reason to believe their manufacturing will kick back into boom mode ever again, especially with other Asian competitors eroding that base. Their service economy was supposed to take over, and so far it's doing nothing but flailing.
- chvid 10y ago
  "China's economy is growing at 2% to 3% currently" Where is that number from? The latest I can find is a real growth rate around 7% pa.
  - rfwhyte 10y ago
    That's the thing. No one who knows what they're talking about trusts the "real growth" numbers. They're all massively inflated by the CCP in order to maintain their growth driven political narrative.
- Meegul 10y ago
  Assuming your 3% number is correct (which I cannot find a source for), China's yearly gains will outpace ours in just under 10 years, overtaking us in raw GDP in 50 years. That's taking your figures exactly, that is. I highly doubt Chinese GDP growth is at 3%. They might not be able to sustain 8%+ for much longer, but even a 6% annual growth would make their economy larger than the US's in under 13 years, with their annual $ addition to their economy already outpacing ours.

by chvid 10y ago

adventured 10y ago

China's economy isn't expanding faster than the West's. It was. China's economy is hardly growing at all, and is no longer growing organically. They require extremely vast amounts of new debt to continue growing at just a few percent per year. That's a scenario they can't maintain going forward. The US economy by itself is expanding as much as China in dollar GDP terms, and is doing so without taking on the kind of debt that China is. Per dollar of debt taken on, the US is getting two to three times as much GDP growth as what China is. China's economy is growing at 2% to 3% currently; with the US economy ~65% larger it can grow quite a bit slower and still outpace China. $18 trillion * 2% = $360 billion $11 trillion * 3% = $330 billion China is unlikely to ever be the extremely fast growth economy it previously was. All the easy economic growth is long since over. And this is without discussing the inevitability that China will run into regular recessions like all other economies do once their growth slows down to normal levels (and ignoring that China is also likely to face far harsher consequences with economic slowdowns given their system of government; which keeps the Chinese leaders up at night). For example they've been in an industrial recession for at least a year now, and their service sector has barely shown any growth. There's no reason to believe their manufacturing will kick back into boom mode ever again, especially with other Asian competitors eroding that base. Their service economy was supposed to take over, and so far it's doing nothing but flailing.

chvid 10y ago
"China's economy is growing at 2% to 3% currently" Where is that number from? The latest I can find is a real growth rate around 7% pa.
- rfwhyte 10y ago
  That's the thing. No one who knows what they're talking about trusts the "real growth" numbers. They're all massively inflated by the CCP in order to maintain their growth driven political narrative.
Meegul 10y ago
Assuming your 3% number is correct (which I cannot find a source for), China's yearly gains will outpace ours in just under 10 years, overtaking us in raw GDP in 50 years. That's taking your figures exactly, that is. I highly doubt Chinese GDP growth is at 3%. They might not be able to sustain 8%+ for much longer, but even a 6% annual growth would make their economy larger than the US's in under 13 years, with their annual $ addition to their economy already outpacing ours.