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While reading this article, it occurred to me that Japan is at worst slowly committing suicide, and at best "failing to thrive." Why? And what happens when th
by a3n 10y ago
While reading this article, it occurred to me that Japan is at worst slowly committing suicide, and at best "failing to thrive."
Why?
And what happens when the majority of the country all but de-populates? Will China invade? Will the US be asked to open military bases?
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- justicezyx 10y agoWhere is the 'will China invade' come from? Historically it always has been reverse.
- fsloth 10y agoThere was the one abortive attempt by Kublai Khan with flat bottomed boats which went really sour. If that is considered a chinese invasion is a matter of taste I suppose.
- a3n 10y agoA depopulated Japan could easily be an undefended Japan. China is right now working to expand its sphere of territory and influence. They make islands in the ocean where none were before. This scenario is possible if two things happen: weak Japanese self-defense from depopulation, and a successful closing of US bases by either Japanese citizens who resent their presence, or US isolationism.
- protomyth 10y agoIts interesting that the current PM wants to revise their constitution to remove limits on Japan’s military. http://www.wsj.com/articles/japanese-voters-to-render-a-verdict-on-abenomics-national-security-policy-1468111220 http://www.wsj.com/articles/japanese-voters-to-render-a-verd...
- tonyedgecombe 10y agoChina is heading towards its own demographic time bomb as well.
- johan_larson 10y agoThis stuff right here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_invasions_of_Japan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mongol_invasions_of_Japan
- tankenmate 10y agoObviously Mongolia is not part of China, but Kublai Khan did twice try to invade Japan. Typhoons scuppered both chances (and from which the Kamikaze tradition was born). For most of Japan's history they have had an isolationist stance to the outside world. Obviously this was not the case from between Commander Perry and the end of World War II. With respect to China, for hundreds of years Japan was considered a quasi-vassal state to various Chinese Emperors.
- tacostakohashi 10y agoNews flash: The U.S. has had military bases in Japan continuously since 1945.
- a3n 10y ago> The U.S. has had military bases in Japan continuously since 1945 Of course. And if an area is severely depopulated, one of the easiest ways to populate it and simultaneously discourage opportunism would be to plop a US military base down. "Easy" because it's doable, there are already bases, and protocols, and familiarity.
- tacostakohashi 10y agoComplete nonsense. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/19/thousands-protest-at-us-bases-on-okinawa-after-japanese-womans https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/19/thousands-prot... The existing bases are in sparsely populated areas. Even so, they're deeply unpopular, mainly because the servicemen have a bad habit of raping and murdering the locals. Adding more bases to boost the population would be political suicide.
- happyslobro 10y agoIt is hard for me to spot the difference between the Americans moving in and expanding their overseas military, and the Chinese doing the same thing. In fact, I would go so far as to say that the expansion of any superpower is generally just bad news for everyone else. An ideal scenario in my opinion, would be for the Japanese to automate a purely defensive military along with their workforce. Japan could go back to being that demon island that no one dares to invade.
- dominotw 10y ago>While reading this article, it occurred to me that Japan is at worst slowly committing suicide, and at best "failing to thrive." They make money through investments in emerging economies like India. They are investing in young emerging populations just not their own.
- labster 10y agoWhy? Like all declines of civilizations, it's a complex mix of cultural, economic, political, and environmental reasons. And thus beyond the scope of an HN comment. It won't all depopulate. No, but I wouldn't be shocked to see claims over Okinawa (which is not depopulated). No, but I wouldn't be surprised if the U.S. is eventually allowed to consolidate its bases into one in Okinawa.
- patrickg_zill 10y agoThey are keeping their culture intact and will probably stabilize at about 100 million population (supposedly). I haven't lived in Japan - others can tell you if it is a nice place to live even with a slowly declining population.
- marak830 10y agoAmazing place to live. I have been here for close to 5 years now, and I do noy plan on leaving.
- gtirloni 10y agoI have family that lives in Japan for 15+ years and, while being a nice country with good quality of life, they say foreigners can never expect to be fully acknowledged citizens (e.g. how difficult it's to get citizenship, requirement of Japanese ascend, etc). It seems very closed to foreigners. Maybe that's different in the tech world.
- goodside 10y agoJapanese citizenship is actually much easier to get than other wealthy countries -- if you've lived in Japan for five years on any non-tourist visa and you're willing to give up all other citizenships you hold, you're in. The thing that's so notoriously hard is permanently living in Japan without becoming a citizen, which usually requires marriage or descent.
- marak830 10y agoI havnt applied yet, but I'm treated very well(better than locals in most cases). I have yet to see any discrimination, compared to Australia where my wife(Japanese) regularly had issues.
- Nadya 10y agoAs long as you make an attempt to respect the culture and (ideally) make some attempt to learn Japanese - I've found only the most rural areas would dare to treat you poorly. They'll treat you well and when you are out of site they'll confide in friends about the "smelly foreign pig". Without a confidant, you'd never be any the wiser. People with tattoos face a higher risk of discrimination than anyone of a foreign (non-Japanese) race in most any part of Japan. As with any "rules", there are exceptions. But the above has been my experience (month-long travels totaling several years). Meanwhile, the U.S has no problems yelling out racist slurs or discriminating against others quite blatantly.
- akeruu 10y ago> Why ? Sorry for brevity, this only a HN comment but here are some highlights. The main reasons are low birth rate and low immigration and due to various factors : Low birth rate : Fewer / later marriage, Poor work/life balance, Small living space, Hight costs of raising children Low immigration : Japanese people view themselves as "uniform" (which is debatable), Country closed to foreigners for two centuries
- xamuel 10y agoOne big elephant in the room no-one wants to talk much about (according to my Japanese wife) is that, incredibly, health insurance doesn't usually cover childbirth in Japan. They don't consider it to be an "illness" and therefore, you're on your own!
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- themaninthedark 10y agoThat's odd, according to my wife there is lots help for having children. I know that here in Mie all doctor visits are free, all recommend vaccines as well. Day care is subsidized and based on income, 3rd kid is free. And we get a monthly stipend of 2万(not exactly sure about tje number, wife puts it in saving). I remember insurance paying at lesst part of the birth costs, but my wife had an atypical pregnancy. I seem to remember having to pay then getting money back. At work now, I will find out.
- themaninthedark 10y agoSorry for the double post, you are right insurance doesn't pay for birth. But you receive a payment(wife said present) of ~35万 from the government and wife says that covers the cost. If you have a cesarean that is covered by insurance. Also the monthly stipend is only ~1万. The stipend and free medical lasts until middle school(maybe not sure when it cuts off but elementary school students are covered).
- iwontreddit 10y agoJapan is the 10th most populous country in the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependencies_by_population https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_and_dependen... > Will China invade? Why would they invade? China and the rest of the world is doing what japan is. What japan is doing is moving to cities and depopulating their rural areas. Young people and even old people want to live in cities. You are misreading the article.