6 ms·

A study from the NYT addresses this, and finds that if arrest rates is a good proxy for police interactions (a reasonable assumption) the data supports the theo

A study from the NYT addresses this, and finds that if arrest rates is a good proxy for police interactions (a reasonable assumption) the data supports the theory that the reason black people are more likely to be killed by police is because they are more likely to interact with police: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/18/upshot/police-killings-of-blacks-what-the-data-says.html?rref=collection%2Fsectioncollection%2Fupshot&action=click&contentCollection=upshot&region=rank&module=package&version=highlights&contentPlacement=5&pgtype=sectionfront http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/18/upshot/police-killings-of-...: > This in turn suggests that removing police racial bias will have little effect on the killing rate. Suppose each arrest creates an equal risk of shooting for both African-Americans and whites. In that case, with the current arrest rate, 28.9 percent of all those killed by police officers would still be African-American. This is only slightly smaller than the 31.8 percent of killings we actually see, and it is much greater than the 13.2 percent level of African-Americans in the overall population.

zasz 10y ago
But there could be a racial bias that causes police to be more likely to stop black Americans.
- marmaduke 10y ago
  Could be is an understatement in certain places in the US
- marcoperaza 10y ago
  Perhaps it has something to do with the crime rate in the black community being through the roof.
  - Joof 10y ago
    Perhaps it has something to do with them being stopped more and thus arrested more.
    - mc32 10y ago
      They could normalize for reported crime rates and compare --but take into account tendency to overreport as well as underreport crime by some groups (ie undocumented/illegal status).
    - Pyxl101 10y ago
      Blacks commit higher rates of murder, rape, and other violent crime. These are crimes that you're caught for afterword and don't have to do with a single interaction with police. FBI crime statistics show many types of crime broken down by race. Despite being a minority, blacks commit the majority of murders, and black-on-white crime is higher than white-on-black, for example. One resource is: https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/tables/table-43#disablemobile https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/... This table shows that blacks are responsible for more than 50% of all murders in 2015, and a greater absolute number than white-committed murders. Blacks make up around 10-12% of the population, so the rate at which they commit this crime is far higher than whites. It's likely that there are also biases in how police interact with blacks and whites. However it's hard to say with certainty what magnitude of effect there is. I find it hard to believe that the entirety of the difference in these statistics is due to bias.
      - nomat 10y ago
        Blacks are convicted of committing higher rates of murder, rape, and other violent crime. Considering that nearly 40% of homicides go unsolved, it's entirely possible that the actual rate is much different.
        marcoperaza 10y ago
        You're deep in conspiracy-theory territory. No one seriously disputes that the actual black violent crime rate is much much higher than the white violent crime rate. This is accepted fact. Unfortunately, this kind of conspiratorial fact-free thinking has been embraced by movements like BLM and their supporters. To expect equal outcomes is absurd. The black and white communities in the US have very different histories and cultures. Their economic conditions are also wildly different. The different crime rates and outcomes are completely consistent with this. And yes, for some crimes, blacks probably get caught at a higher rate. Black neighborhoods tend to be high-crime areas, so they tend to have greater police presence. This is totally rational policing. Liberty City in Miami needs a strong police presence to protect the inhabitants. The super ritzy and quiet parts of Coral Gables don't. Guess where you're more likely to get picked up for a low level stuff like speeding, smoking weed, or loitering? And who's more likely to get caught? The white guy selling drugs to his buddies at school or from home, or the black guy selling drugs on the corner? Different communities, different dynamics, different outcomes.
- selectron 10y ago
  There could be, but why do you assume this is do to racial bias as opposed to the unfortunate fact that black people are more likely to commit violent crime? I assume that arrest rates should be a good proxy for police interaction, this is a logical assumption - if you disagree then you should give a reason of why your assumption is better, not just say that the assumption "could" be wrong. The unfortunate truth is that black people are more likely to commit violent crime in the US. To show racial bias you have to show that police are disproportionately targeting blacks relative to the rate of crime, if you make the false assumption that the rate of crime is equal between black people and white people then your conclusions will be wrong. http://www.amren.com/news/2015/07/new-doj-statistics-on-race-and-violent-crime/ http://www.amren.com/news/2015/07/new-doj-statistics-on-race... Even for something like traffic stops, you need to study whether or not black people are more likely to get pulled over because they are black or because they are more likely to be young and therefore more likely to speed. It isn't enough to just say that black people are disproportionately stopped, you have to show that the rate of speeding is the same to show bias. http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/21/nyregion/study-suggests-racial-gap-in-speeding-in-new-jersey.html?pagewanted=all http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/21/nyregion/study-suggests-ra...
  - DavidWanjiru 10y ago
    Wait, what do you mean black people are more likely to be pulled over, not because they're black, but because they're more likely to be young and hence more likely to speed? Which stat are you using, young black drivers as a proportion of all black drivers? Youn black drivers as a proportion of all drivers? And assuming we can assume all young drivers, regardless of race, are more likely to speed (unless you say otherwise), are the patterns of being pulled over amongst young black drivers similar to the patterns for young white/other race drivers?
    - jomamaxx 10y ago
      "Wait, what do you mean black people are more likely to be pulled over, not because they're black, but because they're more likely to be young and hence more likely to speed?" Speeding or not speeding - African Americans are significantly more likely to be involved in all crimes - according to arrest and conviction data. I think there is probably some bias, for sure, but bias can't quite explain it all away. Neither can income or education. Even normalizing for those, there is still more violence within African American communities. It's obviously a complex problem, god forbid I don't have the answer, but the more politically fearless research we can do the better. A study of the likelihood of being shot while interacting with police, as opposed to a study of just the likelihood of being shot given race - is really not very helpful in this situation.
- jomamaxx 10y ago
  "But there could be a racial bias that causes police to be more likely to stop black Americans." Even if this is true (and it's probably true to some extent), by focusing on 'interactions only' we can isolate the degree to which cops may be racially biased in at least those incidents wherein there is interaction. This would yield much more valuable results than the paper in the link. The linked paper is almost useless because there is a very large divide in who cops interact with. So many factors there including police density, income, poverty, education etc..
mc32 10y ago
We could further look at bias differences by studying areas of police encounters in predominantly poor areas with similar rates of crime but with different racial profiles.
- dragonwriter 10y ago
  > We could further look at bias differences by studying areas of police encounters in predominantly poor areas with similar rates of crime but with different racial profiles. Or we could conduct simulations and put police officers through them, in which the only differences were race.
Joof 10y ago
Its been found before that police are more likely to stop African Americans, so this may still be racial bias.
- jomamaxx 10y ago
  I have no doubt this is true, but I suggest the story is much more complicated than that.

zasz 10y ago

But there could be a racial bias that causes police to be more likely to stop black Americans.

marmaduke 10y ago
Could be is an understatement in certain places in the US
marcoperaza 10y ago
Perhaps it has something to do with the crime rate in the black community being through the roof.
- Joof 10y ago
  Perhaps it has something to do with them being stopped more and thus arrested more.
  - mc32 10y ago
    They could normalize for reported crime rates and compare --but take into account tendency to overreport as well as underreport crime by some groups (ie undocumented/illegal status).
  - Pyxl101 10y ago
    Blacks commit higher rates of murder, rape, and other violent crime. These are crimes that you're caught for afterword and don't have to do with a single interaction with police. FBI crime statistics show many types of crime broken down by race. Despite being a minority, blacks commit the majority of murders, and black-on-white crime is higher than white-on-black, for example. One resource is: https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/crime-in-the-u.s.-2011/tables/table-43#disablemobile https://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2011/... This table shows that blacks are responsible for more than 50% of all murders in 2015, and a greater absolute number than white-committed murders. Blacks make up around 10-12% of the population, so the rate at which they commit this crime is far higher than whites. It's likely that there are also biases in how police interact with blacks and whites. However it's hard to say with certainty what magnitude of effect there is. I find it hard to believe that the entirety of the difference in these statistics is due to bias.
    - nomat 10y ago
      Blacks are convicted of committing higher rates of murder, rape, and other violent crime. Considering that nearly 40% of homicides go unsolved, it's entirely possible that the actual rate is much different.
      - marcoperaza 10y ago
        You're deep in conspiracy-theory territory. No one seriously disputes that the actual black violent crime rate is much much higher than the white violent crime rate. This is accepted fact. Unfortunately, this kind of conspiratorial fact-free thinking has been embraced by movements like BLM and their supporters. To expect equal outcomes is absurd. The black and white communities in the US have very different histories and cultures. Their economic conditions are also wildly different. The different crime rates and outcomes are completely consistent with this. And yes, for some crimes, blacks probably get caught at a higher rate. Black neighborhoods tend to be high-crime areas, so they tend to have greater police presence. This is totally rational policing. Liberty City in Miami needs a strong police presence to protect the inhabitants. The super ritzy and quiet parts of Coral Gables don't. Guess where you're more likely to get picked up for a low level stuff like speeding, smoking weed, or loitering? And who's more likely to get caught? The white guy selling drugs to his buddies at school or from home, or the black guy selling drugs on the corner? Different communities, different dynamics, different outcomes.
selectron 10y ago
There could be, but why do you assume this is do to racial bias as opposed to the unfortunate fact that black people are more likely to commit violent crime? I assume that arrest rates should be a good proxy for police interaction, this is a logical assumption - if you disagree then you should give a reason of why your assumption is better, not just say that the assumption "could" be wrong. The unfortunate truth is that black people are more likely to commit violent crime in the US. To show racial bias you have to show that police are disproportionately targeting blacks relative to the rate of crime, if you make the false assumption that the rate of crime is equal between black people and white people then your conclusions will be wrong. http://www.amren.com/news/2015/07/new-doj-statistics-on-race-and-violent-crime/ http://www.amren.com/news/2015/07/new-doj-statistics-on-race... Even for something like traffic stops, you need to study whether or not black people are more likely to get pulled over because they are black or because they are more likely to be young and therefore more likely to speed. It isn't enough to just say that black people are disproportionately stopped, you have to show that the rate of speeding is the same to show bias. http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/21/nyregion/study-suggests-racial-gap-in-speeding-in-new-jersey.html?pagewanted=all http://www.nytimes.com/2002/03/21/nyregion/study-suggests-ra...
- DavidWanjiru 10y ago
  Wait, what do you mean black people are more likely to be pulled over, not because they're black, but because they're more likely to be young and hence more likely to speed? Which stat are you using, young black drivers as a proportion of all black drivers? Youn black drivers as a proportion of all drivers? And assuming we can assume all young drivers, regardless of race, are more likely to speed (unless you say otherwise), are the patterns of being pulled over amongst young black drivers similar to the patterns for young white/other race drivers?
  - jomamaxx 10y ago
    "Wait, what do you mean black people are more likely to be pulled over, not because they're black, but because they're more likely to be young and hence more likely to speed?" Speeding or not speeding - African Americans are significantly more likely to be involved in all crimes - according to arrest and conviction data. I think there is probably some bias, for sure, but bias can't quite explain it all away. Neither can income or education. Even normalizing for those, there is still more violence within African American communities. It's obviously a complex problem, god forbid I don't have the answer, but the more politically fearless research we can do the better. A study of the likelihood of being shot while interacting with police, as opposed to a study of just the likelihood of being shot given race - is really not very helpful in this situation.
jomamaxx 10y ago
"But there could be a racial bias that causes police to be more likely to stop black Americans." Even if this is true (and it's probably true to some extent), by focusing on 'interactions only' we can isolate the degree to which cops may be racially biased in at least those incidents wherein there is interaction. This would yield much more valuable results than the paper in the link. The linked paper is almost useless because there is a very large divide in who cops interact with. So many factors there including police density, income, poverty, education etc..

mc32 10y ago

We could further look at bias differences by studying areas of police encounters in predominantly poor areas with similar rates of crime but with different racial profiles.

dragonwriter 10y ago
> We could further look at bias differences by studying areas of police encounters in predominantly poor areas with similar rates of crime but with different racial profiles. Or we could conduct simulations and put police officers through them, in which the only differences were race.

Joof 10y ago

Its been found before that police are more likely to stop African Americans, so this may still be racial bias.

jomamaxx 10y ago
I have no doubt this is true, but I suggest the story is much more complicated than that.