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Not to mention the fact that child molestation, for example, is almost never reported at the time by the child, or is hushed up by the family, etc. It is imposs

Not to mention the fact that child molestation, for example, is almost never reported at the time by the child, or is hushed up by the family, etc. It is impossible to know the true re-offense rate for sex crimes because reporting is so low.

zzalpha 10y ago
It is impossible to know the true re-offense rate for sex crimes because reporting is so low. By that logic, it's equally impossible to know how frequently it goes unreported in the first place. So your statement in unsupportable based on your own reasoning. In short: Either we can rely on sexual offense reporting rates in order to make legal policy decisions, or we can't. You don't get to have it both ways and only rely on the data when it suits your agenda.
- conflagrate 10y ago
  It's not impossible to know because people report they were molested long after the fact. There are a lot of estimates to the number of people molested as children (some say 1in 5), and the NYT article linked in another thread suggests that these numbers are falling and that currently about 50% of sex crimes against children are reported. Statute of limitations etc. It's not very black and white, you know.
  - zzalpha 10y ago
    It's not impossible to know because people report they were molested long after the fact In which case we have the data for both reported and unreported offenses and can adjust the recidivism rate accordingly in order to make a reasonably accurate estimate of the real rate. Either the data can be relied upon, in which case we can know recidivism rates, or it can't and we don't. Again, you don't get to have it both ways.
    - conflagrate 10y ago
      That would be true if we knew who the offenders were. Part of the reason predators target children is because children do not tend to report and the details get fuzzy with time. I've talked to a lot of people doing counseling who said things like "a neighbor touched me" etc. but they don't remember names.
      - zzalpha 10y ago
        It doesn't matter. If you know the reporting rate and the unreported rate, and you know the reported recidivism rate, a naïve scaling will get you close to the "real" recidivism rate.

zzalpha 10y ago

It is impossible to know the true re-offense rate for sex crimes because reporting is so low. By that logic, it's equally impossible to know how frequently it goes unreported in the first place. So your statement in unsupportable based on your own reasoning. In short: Either we can rely on sexual offense reporting rates in order to make legal policy decisions, or we can't. You don't get to have it both ways and only rely on the data when it suits your agenda.

conflagrate 10y ago
It's not impossible to know because people report they were molested long after the fact. There are a lot of estimates to the number of people molested as children (some say 1in 5), and the NYT article linked in another thread suggests that these numbers are falling and that currently about 50% of sex crimes against children are reported. Statute of limitations etc. It's not very black and white, you know.
- zzalpha 10y ago
  It's not impossible to know because people report they were molested long after the fact In which case we have the data for both reported and unreported offenses and can adjust the recidivism rate accordingly in order to make a reasonably accurate estimate of the real rate. Either the data can be relied upon, in which case we can know recidivism rates, or it can't and we don't. Again, you don't get to have it both ways.
  - conflagrate 10y ago
    That would be true if we knew who the offenders were. Part of the reason predators target children is because children do not tend to report and the details get fuzzy with time. I've talked to a lot of people doing counseling who said things like "a neighbor touched me" etc. but they don't remember names.
    - zzalpha 10y ago
      It doesn't matter. If you know the reporting rate and the unreported rate, and you know the reported recidivism rate, a naïve scaling will get you close to the "real" recidivism rate.