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A Scenario Where Brexit Does Not Actually Happen

100 points by panabee 10y ago

threeseed 10y ago
It really is a poison chalice all right. Of historical proportions. To be in charge when the United Kingdom comes to an end and Britain fades into irrelevance is something nobody could possibly want.
- noir_lord 10y ago
  Reminds me of a poison pawn in Chess, an apparent sacrifice that if accepted drops the capturing player right in the shit.
  - ifdefdebug 10y ago
    it's more like a queen sacrifice commencing an unstoppable mating sequence
- alva 10y ago
  You move towards the picture you create. This sort of crazy hyperbole is why many people are scared. The UK will be fine. We are members of the top international groups, NATO, G7 etc.
  - jpfr 10y ago
    http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-tr... See the trade-deficit of +3 billion bounds every month? Britain is bleeding dry. And now the money won't "stay in the family".
  - threeseed 10y ago
    The UK will not be fine though. Scotland is all but certain to leave. Northern Ireland is also quite likely to find a way to reunite in part with Ireland. The UK will be dissolved in all but name. And of course UK will still remain within international groups. But it will no longer be the key entry point for political, commercial and cultural engagement with Europe. To manage that shift is not going to be easy nor rewarding.
    - alva 10y ago
      "Scotland is all but certain to leave." Not a certainty at all, especially if new EU membership involves taking the Euro. There is a reason Sturgeon has not yet called the vote, they know that EU joining terms are likely to be very ugly for Scotland at this time. She first has to convince the EU to give them extremely exceptional rules (or legal challenge so Scotland isn't necessarily leaving then joining). Your statements are hyperbolic. No one has any clue what is going to happen next. Making these assertions is unhelpful to everyone. But. If you truly believe in what you are saying, now is the time for you to make yourself millions of pounds in the next few months easily. Plough your savings into the market, take large, leveraged positions against the UK.
      - nazgob 10y ago
        The Euro thing is kinda false. Yes, new countries have to adopt Euro but there is no deadline and no penalty. They only have to promise to do it someday. That is why some countries don't have it and will no have for many years.
        kbob 10y ago
        But Scotland doesn't have its own legacy currency. There's no need/excuse for a phase out period.
chvid 10y ago
The media has been fairly biased wrt. Brexit up to the referendum but after the result is in they have just gone completely stupid. Boris Johnson is an excellent future leader of the conservatives and will do very well as a prime minister. That he was able to become mayor of London shows his broad appeal to what is traditionally a left-winged and very EU-positive place. What will happen now is much more about the future of the EU and how to create a well-functioning alternative for the many EU-countries who are not willing to go towards a federation.
- ifdefdebug 10y ago
  well there is a chance for him to be the prime minister who lost scotland for the queen. and yesterday he looked regreatful so maybe his plan was to lose the referendum, continue to campaign against eu and win the next elections without having to remove britain from the eu.
  - arethuza 10y ago
    "lost scotland for the queen" I don't think there would be any desire to replace the Queen as head of state in an independent Scotland. The same royal family was head of state before the Union and could easily be afterward a split in the same way that she is Head of State for Canada, Australia and quite a few other countries. Edit: I personally would prefer a non-political President as Head of State, but I suspect few other people think that and I don't have hugely strong views on it. I also wouldn't want any change to happen in the lifetime of the Queen.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- ricksplat 10y ago
  > That he was able to become mayor of London shows his broad appeal The expression I heard a couple of times from my Londoner friends was that he canvassed "The Doughnut" which is the term for the wealthier classes living around the peripheries. His predecessor Livingston had shaped policy to suit the more urban residents. Johnson is great at campaigning, and speaking and though he comes across as a buffoon he's a very shrewd guy. But I believe he's the dancing monkey rather than the organ grinder. He is untested in policy formation. I don't believe he has the stones to do the heavy political lifting that will be needed to lead the UK post-brexit.
GunboatDiplomat 10y ago
So... does anyone really think any democratic government would be so crazy as to totally discard the results of a referendum they called?
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- Joeri 10y ago
  You don't have to totally discard the results, just muddle things up enough that it sort of seems like you listened, except you didn't really. Confusion wins over honesty every time.
- cam_l 10y ago
  Can't quite tell if you are being sarcastic.. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_bailout_referendum,_2015 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_bailout_referendum,_20...
- Lazare 10y ago
  Sure, happens all the time. Whether the next British government is prepared to discard the result of this referendum is another question. The answer is almost certainly no, absolutely not (considering that it'll presumably be a Conservative government led by pro-Leave politicians), but that's not the same thing as saying they'd be prepared to invoke Article 50 either. It's not impossible that they'll get so busy preparing to invoke Article 50 that they'll never actually get around to it before a new Remain government is formed. (My bet is that Article 50 will be invoked, FWIW. A true Leave believer won't be worried about it, because they think the outcome will be strongly positive. Of course, I wouldn't be the first person to wonder if Johnson is a true Leave believer, or simply an opportunist who saw a lever.)
- tonyedgecombe 10y ago
  There are any number of excuses for revisiting the decision, especially considering it was so close.
- makomk 10y ago
  The government is fucked either way. There's no way they can give voters the things they promised to get that result, and they know it. The likely end result is that a whole bunch of the losing side's "fearmongering" turns out to be unfortunately accurate, and they probably knew that too.
scoot 10y ago
Might as well link to the comment rather than the blog-spam which simply quotes it in part, then in full, with no further analysis: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/25/brexit-live-emergency-meetings-eu-uk-leave-vote#comment-77205935 http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/25/brexit-...
dijit 10y ago
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/25/brexit-live-emergency-meetings-eu-uk-leave-vote#comment-77205935 http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/25/brexit-... The original comment. And probably somewhat close to reality, but we can't say for sure, only time will tell.
thomasfoster96 10y ago
Well that pretty much nails it. While on paper it still looks like Boris Johnson is in a great position to the vast majority of the public, the next Prime Minister is going to have to follow through with what they know is a terrible idea, negotiate with the EU with remarkably less leverage than the 'Leave' campaign thought they had, try to deal with Scotland wanting to leave, restless regional pressure groups in Wales, Cornwall and other parts of the country, as well as try not to have Northern Ireland fall back into a state of ongoing political violence. So Johnson either has put his hand up to deal with all these issues until the next general election in (or sooner) 2020 and go to an election with a struggling economy (I doubt and the Union slowly falling apart (remember, Scotland's independence would topple the sitting PM almost certainly) or he can wait it out, let another Conservative Prime Minister lose in 2020, and become party leader upon the election loss and hope to win in 2025. I doubt he thought this through very well. On the plus side UKIP's work is mostly done so they mightn't poll as well any more.
- bodyfour 10y ago
  Arg.. I just spent a half hour writing a long comment on this article, but then Chrome crashed when I hit "submit". I'll try to briefly retype my thoughts here since you've covered some of them. It's quite clear that Boris did not want the referendum to win. While (like all tories) he would occasionally grumble about Brussels nobody considered him anti-EU during his time as mayor. He was, however, obviously after the top job. He would upstage Cameron every chance he got. When he decided to switch back to being an MP, Cameron brought him into his cabinet (without a formal position) He knew he had this referendum campaign to fight and having the popular internationalist by his side would help him command as much party loyalty as possible. Boris then immediately pirouetted (bad mental image, that) and decided to lead the "Leave" campaign instead. The grassroots (largely Euroskeptic) tories who will pick the next party leader would appreciate his help. Cameron already announced that he would leave before the 2020 election, so this would mean PM Boris probably in late 2018/early 2019. So the best result for Boris would be a narrow referendum loss while looking like a great anti-EU warrior. A lot of the rhetoric he employed was to this end -- when he would compare the EU to the Nazis, it would make him look fierce to the hardcore Euroskeptics who controlled his future, while whispering to the electorate-at-large that the whole Leave campaign was nutty. It didn't work. He got what he nominally wanted, and now he has the chance to be PM faster than expected... but he has to deal with the fallout from this disaster. If Cameron had invoked Article 50 immediately then the rest of the party would blame a sloppy exit on him... "we had a great plan to pre-negotiate everything, but Dave messed it up!" He's not giving them that option: if the country is to be destroyed, he wants them to pull the trigger. It's startling watching the "moderate" Leave wing falling over themselves to dial back all of their promises during the campaign.... turns out there isn't more money for the NHS... of course there would still be free movement of workers from EU countries... maybe if Scotland doesn't want to do it we should call it off to preserve the union.... etc etc.. In victory, they're terrified of what they've done. Of course, to the far-right any wavering will be seen as treachery. A fight is brewing there. Meanwhile, Labour is also in full self-destruct mode. Corbyn just sacked the most credible member of his shadow cabinet and many of the rest will probably leave in protest. There have been many times in British political history when the out-of-power party goes through this sort of process, but never when the governing party is also in such disarray. Interesting times, unfortunately. I don't know if UKIP will disappear, though. They could now be the party of northern grievance, locking Labour out of power entirely.
Joeri 10y ago
The brexit will happen, but the result will be a trade agreement that imposes almost the same set of conditions on the UK, except without the ability of the UK to veto new EU measures. In short, the UK is still going to be controlled by Europe, but now without veto powers. The negotiators won't be trying too hard to get a better deal from the EU, because they'll be the ones in power, and if they fail to negotiate a deal they'll be forced to give up that power. Trust politicians to prefer power over principles any time.
- golemotron 10y ago
  The alternative is to delay the process long enough to form a bloc with other countries that are considering leaving the EU. That's a vision the UK could rally around if they are serious about their independence and securing the best deal for themselves. If they are half-hearted, they will get a bad deal.
- skylan_q 10y ago
  the UK is still going to be controlled by Europe No it won't, as the EU has become a legislative body governing aspects of people's lives in the UK and it will no longer be the case.
  - gpvos 10y ago
    If there is still a trade agreement between the UK and the EU, then lots of things in the UK will still be controlled by the EU, as the EU is larger and will make the trade rules. (Also, the EU is quite bureaucratic and thus not so flexible, so it will not be very willing to make a special agreement with the UK. It's EEA, Canada-style, WTO-style, or nothing.) If you don't want the EU controlling any aspect of the UK, you can't have a trade agreement.
    - wmil 10y ago
      Right now small businesses in the UK that don't export at all have to comply with all EU rules. If the UK leaves then they won't. So the effective influence will be greatly reduced.
golemotron 10y ago
A lot will be determined by the decision of who is going to lead the conservatives now. To invoke Lisbon, someone is going to have to stand up with a strong positive vision. It's also in their interest to delay starting the process to allow time for other countries in the EU to start their own referenda. If the UK does actually go through with Brexit, whomever takes on this leadership role will have to court other countries in the EU to form a larger bloc before the UK's negotiations with the EU finalize. It's either that or accept a punitive deal from the EU.
internaut 10y ago
Remain and the Media want to larp as Persian emissaries from 300?
YeGoblynQueenne 10y ago
Or maybe Boris looked subdued because he just had the flu. All those plausible theories are just that: plausible and theories. Who knows what's going through Johnson's head right now? Who knows what will happen in the future? What good is this sort of analysis, that's based on some vague attempt to form a theory of mind of a particular person (rather than a class of person, say) by people who have never even met the person in question in, er, well, person? In any case BoJo and all the Tories on the side of Leave are typical populists: their tactic is to agitate and profit. They shake the tree until office falls out, then make a grab for it. In chaotic times, the populist leads, so the populist actively tries to create chaos, in exactly the opposite manner than reasonable politicians do (regardless of whether they are also intelligent, capable or not). This is BoJo's time. It's futile to hope otherwise. The whole country abandoned reason. The prime idiot is not going to back down now. Those people are not in this game to leave a good name for themselves in history: they're in it to do well in the here and now, and damn the rest of the world to hell. If the reasonable people in the UK wish to retain control, they have to get their noses out of their consolation drinks and squeeze their brains hard to come up with actual ideas, rather than pipe dreams and wishful thinking.
- vixen99 10y ago
  Probably your words would go well on the stump. I can agree with your final sentence. On Brexit, control will return from unelected, Brussels civil servants (the commissioners) who conduct their deliberations in secret, to elected (is this populist?) members of the British Government. http://www.robertthomson.info/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/thomson_hosli_06JCMS_power.pdf http://www.robertthomson.info/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/tho... illustrates the complexity of the power links in Brussels.
- toyg 10y ago
  I think you're as guilty as the columnist to try and read one's mind. I don't think anyone as well-educated and well-read as BoJo is in it only "for the here and now"; most politicians fighting for leadership positions do have a sense of purpose and historical role, as well as the competitive streak. It is much more profitable, in the short term, to just hang around in the shadows, brokering deals and pocketing kickbacks, than to lose sleep and health campaigning and shaking hands. People who are born from money can be narcissists, sociopaths or well-intentioned buffoons, but don't usually burn the place down for the hell of it.
eternalban 10y ago
As an aside we should note that the globalists' regime is, per their concerted scaremongering propaganda effort since the Brexit vote, indeed so fragile that the mere defection of one nation sends it into a tailspin.
gregn610 10y ago
I wonder if a snap election could be called before article 50 is invoked? One of the major parties could campaign on "Remain" and if they won, they'd have a democratic mandate to ignore the referendum.
- YeGoblynQueenne 10y ago
  Look, forget about any of the major parties (like, the following two, Tories and Labour). They are responsible for this mess, either because they wanted to cause it (that's half of the Tories and a quarter ish of Labour) or because they failed to stop it (three quarters of Labour). The best chance the UK has to reverse the result of the referendum is Nicola Sturgeon being able to do what she suggested today, blocking the process of the triggering of article 50. If she really has the power to do that, then there's hope still. Otherwise, the UK is screwed.
  - toyg 10y ago
    Sturgeon stalling will just give UKIP a majority next time around. How do Scots date to tell England what to do etc etc. It's a recipe for civil war, in the worst scenario. Tbh I feel awful for Lizzie and Charles, who might end up being constitutional arbiters in the process of disgregation of a kingdom their family kept together for hundreds of years. They probably didn't expect to have to deal with this shit at their age.
YeGoblynQueenne 10y ago
Here's why BoJo's face, sad or smiley, doesn't matter one bit: The foreign ministers of the EU’s six founding members, however, demanded Britain start proceedings “as soon as possible” to avoid a long and potentially damaging period of uncertainty. The Dutch foreign minister, Bert Koenders, told the Volkskrant: “We can’t have the kind of dithering Boris Johnson is suggesting. Everyone wants clarity: people, businesses, financial markets.” France’s foreign minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, urged Cameron to step down soon, saying: “A new prime minister must be designated – that will take a few days. But there is a certain urgency.” He added: “We have to give a new sense to Europe, otherwise populism will fill the gap.” The rest of the EU is not going to take this shit lightly when it is bad for business and it's also threatening to overturn the status quo and give a run for power to the Farages of the continent. If Boris, or whoever becomes the next PM, decides to procrastinate, the result will only be even more pain in the disengagement talks. [1] http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/eu-founding-members-britain-agree-quick-divorce-europe-exit http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/eu-founding-...
- peteretep 10y ago
  They don't get a say in it, so who the hell cares? Merkel has explicitly supported taking time over it, and she calls the shots
neverminder 10y ago
There could be a life ring thrown in this situation after all - Scotland is thinking of vetoing Brexit - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36633244 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-3663...
- biosonar 10y ago
  And that will end well.
pi-err 10y ago
There's a much better and simpler explanation to the 4-months delay. As shown in Cameron's [white paper on Brexit from last February](https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/504216/The_process_for_withdrawing_from_the_EU_print_ready.pdf https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachm...), the critical part of the exit process is to buy more than 2 years to define the new relationship (article 50 has basically only this period as a hard fact). The paper does bold that a realistic timeline would be ~10 years. Meaning the UK needs to find bullet points to negotiate additional time... with all the free goodies of being still a "passive" member of the EU. So they're buying 4 months now. They need this to understand their leverages, friends and foes. Many in Europe will be receptive on avoiding a clash. Merkel right now shows signs of resilience. Make no mistake: part of the City and tech industry sees a strong potential in Brexit - as long as there is no "free fall" period after 2 years. Everything will be about buying time.
- toyg 10y ago
  Extending the deadline requires unanimous vote, which, since enlargement to 28 countries, is basically impossible. The interpretation of paragraphs describing art.50 triggering is vague enough that the EU will find ways to trigger it themselves -- it's already been suggested that a speech taking place in an EU setting and getting transcribed will be enough, which means UK diplomats and ministers are now all but ostracized from formal meetings of any sort outside the negotiation process. There is no way this situation can extend for 10 years. The EU will not allow it, especially if recession hits. If really UK elites get cold feet, we'll have a general election with an europhile party winning and abandoning the whole thing, with a second referendum forced.
- gaviscon 10y ago
  Would you be able to expand on how the tech industry could benefit from Brexit? - Not questioning your point, I would just like to hear more about this point of view
bikamonki 10y ago
The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction. Is this true in UK's legislation?
- thomasfoster96 10y ago
  Yes, in the UK the parliament has absolute sovereignty[0]. Parliament cannot be overruled by the courts (unlike the US or Australia, where the Supreme/High Court can declare laws invalid), nor is there any requirement for decisions to be taken to a referendum (unlike Australia or Switzerland, where the constitution can't be changed without a vote). The UK parliament can, in theory, ignore the referendum entirely - although that'd be hugely unpopular if they did. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_sovereignty https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_sovereignty
speeder 10y ago
I am not much close to UK politics. But doesn't UKIP have a rising popularity right now? If neither of the two traditional parties want to lead Brexit, would not this just result in UKIP volunteering and asking the population to back them in the next parliament elections?

100 points by panabee 10y ago

It really is a poison chalice all right. Of historical proportions. To be in charge when the United Kingdom comes to an end and Britain fades into irrelevance is something nobody could possibly want.

noir_lord 10y ago
Reminds me of a poison pawn in Chess, an apparent sacrifice that if accepted drops the capturing player right in the shit.
- ifdefdebug 10y ago
  it's more like a queen sacrifice commencing an unstoppable mating sequence
alva 10y ago
You move towards the picture you create. This sort of crazy hyperbole is why many people are scared. The UK will be fine. We are members of the top international groups, NATO, G7 etc.
- jpfr 10y ago
  http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-trade http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/balance-of-tr... See the trade-deficit of +3 billion bounds every month? Britain is bleeding dry. And now the money won't "stay in the family".
- threeseed 10y ago
  The UK will not be fine though. Scotland is all but certain to leave. Northern Ireland is also quite likely to find a way to reunite in part with Ireland. The UK will be dissolved in all but name. And of course UK will still remain within international groups. But it will no longer be the key entry point for political, commercial and cultural engagement with Europe. To manage that shift is not going to be easy nor rewarding.
  - alva 10y ago
    "Scotland is all but certain to leave." Not a certainty at all, especially if new EU membership involves taking the Euro. There is a reason Sturgeon has not yet called the vote, they know that EU joining terms are likely to be very ugly for Scotland at this time. She first has to convince the EU to give them extremely exceptional rules (or legal challenge so Scotland isn't necessarily leaving then joining). Your statements are hyperbolic. No one has any clue what is going to happen next. Making these assertions is unhelpful to everyone. But. If you truly believe in what you are saying, now is the time for you to make yourself millions of pounds in the next few months easily. Plough your savings into the market, take large, leveraged positions against the UK.
    - nazgob 10y ago
      The Euro thing is kinda false. Yes, new countries have to adopt Euro but there is no deadline and no penalty. They only have to promise to do it someday. That is why some countries don't have it and will no have for many years.
      - kbob 10y ago
        But Scotland doesn't have its own legacy currency. There's no need/excuse for a phase out period.

chvid 10y ago

The media has been fairly biased wrt. Brexit up to the referendum but after the result is in they have just gone completely stupid. Boris Johnson is an excellent future leader of the conservatives and will do very well as a prime minister. That he was able to become mayor of London shows his broad appeal to what is traditionally a left-winged and very EU-positive place. What will happen now is much more about the future of the EU and how to create a well-functioning alternative for the many EU-countries who are not willing to go towards a federation.

ifdefdebug 10y ago
well there is a chance for him to be the prime minister who lost scotland for the queen. and yesterday he looked regreatful so maybe his plan was to lose the referendum, continue to campaign against eu and win the next elections without having to remove britain from the eu.
- arethuza 10y ago
  "lost scotland for the queen" I don't think there would be any desire to replace the Queen as head of state in an independent Scotland. The same royal family was head of state before the Union and could easily be afterward a split in the same way that she is Head of State for Canada, Australia and quite a few other countries. Edit: I personally would prefer a non-political President as Head of State, but I suspect few other people think that and I don't have hugely strong views on it. I also wouldn't want any change to happen in the lifetime of the Queen.
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ricksplat 10y ago
> That he was able to become mayor of London shows his broad appeal The expression I heard a couple of times from my Londoner friends was that he canvassed "The Doughnut" which is the term for the wealthier classes living around the peripheries. His predecessor Livingston had shaped policy to suit the more urban residents. Johnson is great at campaigning, and speaking and though he comes across as a buffoon he's a very shrewd guy. But I believe he's the dancing monkey rather than the organ grinder. He is untested in policy formation. I don't believe he has the stones to do the heavy political lifting that will be needed to lead the UK post-brexit.

GunboatDiplomat 10y ago

So... does anyone really think any democratic government would be so crazy as to totally discard the results of a referendum they called?

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Joeri 10y ago
You don't have to totally discard the results, just muddle things up enough that it sort of seems like you listened, except you didn't really. Confusion wins over honesty every time.
cam_l 10y ago
Can't quite tell if you are being sarcastic.. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_bailout_referendum,_2015 https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_bailout_referendum,_20...
Lazare 10y ago
Sure, happens all the time. Whether the next British government is prepared to discard the result of this referendum is another question. The answer is almost certainly no, absolutely not (considering that it'll presumably be a Conservative government led by pro-Leave politicians), but that's not the same thing as saying they'd be prepared to invoke Article 50 either. It's not impossible that they'll get so busy preparing to invoke Article 50 that they'll never actually get around to it before a new Remain government is formed. (My bet is that Article 50 will be invoked, FWIW. A true Leave believer won't be worried about it, because they think the outcome will be strongly positive. Of course, I wouldn't be the first person to wonder if Johnson is a true Leave believer, or simply an opportunist who saw a lever.)
tonyedgecombe 10y ago
There are any number of excuses for revisiting the decision, especially considering it was so close.
makomk 10y ago
The government is fucked either way. There's no way they can give voters the things they promised to get that result, and they know it. The likely end result is that a whole bunch of the losing side's "fearmongering" turns out to be unfortunately accurate, and they probably knew that too.

scoot 10y ago

Might as well link to the comment rather than the blog-spam which simply quotes it in part, then in full, with no further analysis: http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/25/brexit-live-emergency-meetings-eu-uk-leave-vote#comment-77205935 http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/25/brexit-...

dijit 10y ago

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/25/brexit-live-emergency-meetings-eu-uk-leave-vote#comment-77205935 http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2016/jun/25/brexit-... The original comment. And probably somewhat close to reality, but we can't say for sure, only time will tell.

thomasfoster96 10y ago

Well that pretty much nails it. While on paper it still looks like Boris Johnson is in a great position to the vast majority of the public, the next Prime Minister is going to have to follow through with what they know is a terrible idea, negotiate with the EU with remarkably less leverage than the 'Leave' campaign thought they had, try to deal with Scotland wanting to leave, restless regional pressure groups in Wales, Cornwall and other parts of the country, as well as try not to have Northern Ireland fall back into a state of ongoing political violence. So Johnson either has put his hand up to deal with all these issues until the next general election in (or sooner) 2020 and go to an election with a struggling economy (I doubt and the Union slowly falling apart (remember, Scotland's independence would topple the sitting PM almost certainly) or he can wait it out, let another Conservative Prime Minister lose in 2020, and become party leader upon the election loss and hope to win in 2025. I doubt he thought this through very well. On the plus side UKIP's work is mostly done so they mightn't poll as well any more.

bodyfour 10y ago
Arg.. I just spent a half hour writing a long comment on this article, but then Chrome crashed when I hit "submit". I'll try to briefly retype my thoughts here since you've covered some of them. It's quite clear that Boris did not want the referendum to win. While (like all tories) he would occasionally grumble about Brussels nobody considered him anti-EU during his time as mayor. He was, however, obviously after the top job. He would upstage Cameron every chance he got. When he decided to switch back to being an MP, Cameron brought him into his cabinet (without a formal position) He knew he had this referendum campaign to fight and having the popular internationalist by his side would help him command as much party loyalty as possible. Boris then immediately pirouetted (bad mental image, that) and decided to lead the "Leave" campaign instead. The grassroots (largely Euroskeptic) tories who will pick the next party leader would appreciate his help. Cameron already announced that he would leave before the 2020 election, so this would mean PM Boris probably in late 2018/early 2019. So the best result for Boris would be a narrow referendum loss while looking like a great anti-EU warrior. A lot of the rhetoric he employed was to this end -- when he would compare the EU to the Nazis, it would make him look fierce to the hardcore Euroskeptics who controlled his future, while whispering to the electorate-at-large that the whole Leave campaign was nutty. It didn't work. He got what he nominally wanted, and now he has the chance to be PM faster than expected... but he has to deal with the fallout from this disaster. If Cameron had invoked Article 50 immediately then the rest of the party would blame a sloppy exit on him... "we had a great plan to pre-negotiate everything, but Dave messed it up!" He's not giving them that option: if the country is to be destroyed, he wants them to pull the trigger. It's startling watching the "moderate" Leave wing falling over themselves to dial back all of their promises during the campaign.... turns out there isn't more money for the NHS... of course there would still be free movement of workers from EU countries... maybe if Scotland doesn't want to do it we should call it off to preserve the union.... etc etc.. In victory, they're terrified of what they've done. Of course, to the far-right any wavering will be seen as treachery. A fight is brewing there. Meanwhile, Labour is also in full self-destruct mode. Corbyn just sacked the most credible member of his shadow cabinet and many of the rest will probably leave in protest. There have been many times in British political history when the out-of-power party goes through this sort of process, but never when the governing party is also in such disarray. Interesting times, unfortunately. I don't know if UKIP will disappear, though. They could now be the party of northern grievance, locking Labour out of power entirely.

Joeri 10y ago

The brexit will happen, but the result will be a trade agreement that imposes almost the same set of conditions on the UK, except without the ability of the UK to veto new EU measures. In short, the UK is still going to be controlled by Europe, but now without veto powers. The negotiators won't be trying too hard to get a better deal from the EU, because they'll be the ones in power, and if they fail to negotiate a deal they'll be forced to give up that power. Trust politicians to prefer power over principles any time.

golemotron 10y ago
The alternative is to delay the process long enough to form a bloc with other countries that are considering leaving the EU. That's a vision the UK could rally around if they are serious about their independence and securing the best deal for themselves. If they are half-hearted, they will get a bad deal.
skylan_q 10y ago
the UK is still going to be controlled by Europe No it won't, as the EU has become a legislative body governing aspects of people's lives in the UK and it will no longer be the case.
- gpvos 10y ago
  If there is still a trade agreement between the UK and the EU, then lots of things in the UK will still be controlled by the EU, as the EU is larger and will make the trade rules. (Also, the EU is quite bureaucratic and thus not so flexible, so it will not be very willing to make a special agreement with the UK. It's EEA, Canada-style, WTO-style, or nothing.) If you don't want the EU controlling any aspect of the UK, you can't have a trade agreement.
  - wmil 10y ago
    Right now small businesses in the UK that don't export at all have to comply with all EU rules. If the UK leaves then they won't. So the effective influence will be greatly reduced.

golemotron 10y ago

A lot will be determined by the decision of who is going to lead the conservatives now. To invoke Lisbon, someone is going to have to stand up with a strong positive vision. It's also in their interest to delay starting the process to allow time for other countries in the EU to start their own referenda. If the UK does actually go through with Brexit, whomever takes on this leadership role will have to court other countries in the EU to form a larger bloc before the UK's negotiations with the EU finalize. It's either that or accept a punitive deal from the EU.

internaut 10y ago

Remain and the Media want to larp as Persian emissaries from 300?

YeGoblynQueenne 10y ago

Or maybe Boris looked subdued because he just had the flu. All those plausible theories are just that: plausible and theories. Who knows what's going through Johnson's head right now? Who knows what will happen in the future? What good is this sort of analysis, that's based on some vague attempt to form a theory of mind of a particular person (rather than a class of person, say) by people who have never even met the person in question in, er, well, person? In any case BoJo and all the Tories on the side of Leave are typical populists: their tactic is to agitate and profit. They shake the tree until office falls out, then make a grab for it. In chaotic times, the populist leads, so the populist actively tries to create chaos, in exactly the opposite manner than reasonable politicians do (regardless of whether they are also intelligent, capable or not). This is BoJo's time. It's futile to hope otherwise. The whole country abandoned reason. The prime idiot is not going to back down now. Those people are not in this game to leave a good name for themselves in history: they're in it to do well in the here and now, and damn the rest of the world to hell. If the reasonable people in the UK wish to retain control, they have to get their noses out of their consolation drinks and squeeze their brains hard to come up with actual ideas, rather than pipe dreams and wishful thinking.

vixen99 10y ago
Probably your words would go well on the stump. I can agree with your final sentence. On Brexit, control will return from unelected, Brussels civil servants (the commissioners) who conduct their deliberations in secret, to elected (is this populist?) members of the British Government. http://www.robertthomson.info/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/thomson_hosli_06JCMS_power.pdf http://www.robertthomson.info/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/tho... illustrates the complexity of the power links in Brussels.
toyg 10y ago
I think you're as guilty as the columnist to try and read one's mind. I don't think anyone as well-educated and well-read as BoJo is in it only "for the here and now"; most politicians fighting for leadership positions do have a sense of purpose and historical role, as well as the competitive streak. It is much more profitable, in the short term, to just hang around in the shadows, brokering deals and pocketing kickbacks, than to lose sleep and health campaigning and shaking hands. People who are born from money can be narcissists, sociopaths or well-intentioned buffoons, but don't usually burn the place down for the hell of it.

eternalban 10y ago

As an aside we should note that the globalists' regime is, per their concerted scaremongering propaganda effort since the Brexit vote, indeed so fragile that the mere defection of one nation sends it into a tailspin.

gregn610 10y ago

I wonder if a snap election could be called before article 50 is invoked? One of the major parties could campaign on "Remain" and if they won, they'd have a democratic mandate to ignore the referendum.

YeGoblynQueenne 10y ago
Look, forget about any of the major parties (like, the following two, Tories and Labour). They are responsible for this mess, either because they wanted to cause it (that's half of the Tories and a quarter ish of Labour) or because they failed to stop it (three quarters of Labour). The best chance the UK has to reverse the result of the referendum is Nicola Sturgeon being able to do what she suggested today, blocking the process of the triggering of article 50. If she really has the power to do that, then there's hope still. Otherwise, the UK is screwed.
- toyg 10y ago
  Sturgeon stalling will just give UKIP a majority next time around. How do Scots date to tell England what to do etc etc. It's a recipe for civil war, in the worst scenario. Tbh I feel awful for Lizzie and Charles, who might end up being constitutional arbiters in the process of disgregation of a kingdom their family kept together for hundreds of years. They probably didn't expect to have to deal with this shit at their age.

YeGoblynQueenne 10y ago

Here's why BoJo's face, sad or smiley, doesn't matter one bit: The foreign ministers of the EU’s six founding members, however, demanded Britain start proceedings “as soon as possible” to avoid a long and potentially damaging period of uncertainty. The Dutch foreign minister, Bert Koenders, told the Volkskrant: “We can’t have the kind of dithering Boris Johnson is suggesting. Everyone wants clarity: people, businesses, financial markets.” France’s foreign minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, urged Cameron to step down soon, saying: “A new prime minister must be designated – that will take a few days. But there is a certain urgency.” He added: “We have to give a new sense to Europe, otherwise populism will fill the gap.” The rest of the EU is not going to take this shit lightly when it is bad for business and it's also threatening to overturn the status quo and give a run for power to the Farages of the continent. If Boris, or whoever becomes the next PM, decides to procrastinate, the result will only be even more pain in the disengagement talks. [1] http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/eu-founding-members-britain-agree-quick-divorce-europe-exit http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/26/eu-founding-...

peteretep 10y ago
They don't get a say in it, so who the hell cares? Merkel has explicitly supported taking time over it, and she calls the shots

neverminder 10y ago

There could be a life ring thrown in this situation after all - Scotland is thinking of vetoing Brexit - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36633244 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-3663...

biosonar 10y ago
And that will end well.

pi-err 10y ago

There's a much better and simpler explanation to the 4-months delay. As shown in Cameron's [white paper on Brexit from last February](https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/504216/The_process_for_withdrawing_from_the_EU_print_ready.pdf https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachm...), the critical part of the exit process is to buy more than 2 years to define the new relationship (article 50 has basically only this period as a hard fact). The paper does bold that a realistic timeline would be ~10 years. Meaning the UK needs to find bullet points to negotiate additional time... with all the free goodies of being still a "passive" member of the EU. So they're buying 4 months now. They need this to understand their leverages, friends and foes. Many in Europe will be receptive on avoiding a clash. Merkel right now shows signs of resilience. Make no mistake: part of the City and tech industry sees a strong potential in Brexit - as long as there is no "free fall" period after 2 years. Everything will be about buying time.

toyg 10y ago
Extending the deadline requires unanimous vote, which, since enlargement to 28 countries, is basically impossible. The interpretation of paragraphs describing art.50 triggering is vague enough that the EU will find ways to trigger it themselves -- it's already been suggested that a speech taking place in an EU setting and getting transcribed will be enough, which means UK diplomats and ministers are now all but ostracized from formal meetings of any sort outside the negotiation process. There is no way this situation can extend for 10 years. The EU will not allow it, especially if recession hits. If really UK elites get cold feet, we'll have a general election with an europhile party winning and abandoning the whole thing, with a second referendum forced.
gaviscon 10y ago
Would you be able to expand on how the tech industry could benefit from Brexit? - Not questioning your point, I would just like to hear more about this point of view

bikamonki 10y ago

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction. Is this true in UK's legislation?

thomasfoster96 10y ago
Yes, in the UK the parliament has absolute sovereignty[0]. Parliament cannot be overruled by the courts (unlike the US or Australia, where the Supreme/High Court can declare laws invalid), nor is there any requirement for decisions to be taken to a referendum (unlike Australia or Switzerland, where the constitution can't be changed without a vote). The UK parliament can, in theory, ignore the referendum entirely - although that'd be hugely unpopular if they did. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_sovereignty https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parliamentary_sovereignty

speeder 10y ago

I am not much close to UK politics. But doesn't UKIP have a rising popularity right now? If neither of the two traditional parties want to lead Brexit, would not this just result in UKIP volunteering and asking the population to back them in the next parliament elections?