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The New Panama Canal: A Risky Bet
- sctb 10y agoA few recent discussions related to the upcoming expansion opening: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11913026 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11913026 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11937133 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11937133 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11810754 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11810754
- gwern 10y ago> Internal arguments soon gave way to bigger problems. There would be work stoppages, porous concrete, a risk of earthquakes and at least $3.4 billion in disputed costs: more than the budget for the entire project. For a megaproject, 2x overrun is downright wonderful.
- darkstar999 10y agoThey must purposefully underbid knowing that they can run up the cost with impunity?
- toyg 10y agoOf course. Which is why "lowest bidder" rules are often nonsense (they are usually sold as anti-corruption, but it would be much better to simply have strict clauses against overruns instead).
- toomuchtodo 10y agoCost plus with absolute transparency would be best.
- throwaway2048 10y agothe problem with that is then overruns bankrupt the venture/company bidding, and it doesn't get completed, and you have to spend even more having somebody else take over.
- TheBiv 10y agoWow, what an incredible way to view content! From the awesome drone videos detailing exactly what I'm looking at, to the great writing and the animations throughout; this was awesome!
- capote 10y agoI was going to say exactly this--never realized how breathtakingly cool/large/long/complex that canal was until now.
- dalke 10y agoWas it enough to get you to buy a subscription to the NYT? Basic subscription is less than $4/week.
- rando18423 10y agoThe ads seemed to cover it fine
- capote 10y agoNews publications cost money?
- Animats 10y agoOh, crap, they botched the concrete in the new locks. That's going to be hard to fix. The concrete in the original locks is a century old and showing no problems. That's a major achievement in general, and in an application where concrete is exposed to salt water, very impressive. Check out almost any seawall or pier that's more than a few decades old. Sad. When this project was first announced, the Panama Canal Authority insisted they were going to get the concrete right. They didn't.
- ak217 10y agoNot to downplay the importance of good concrete, but I thought the Panama Canal structures almost all handled freshwater (since they rely on the flow of water from Gatun Lake).
- oh_sigh 10y agoYes except in the lowest locks
- Animats 10y agoAll the locks get some salt water. As each lock opens to the neighboring lock, water from the two locks mixes. Enough salt water flows uphill that Gatun Lake is becoming slightly salty.[1] [1] http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDoc.pdf&AD=ADA378475 http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?Location=U2&doc=GetTRDo...
- mrfusion 10y agoWhy does it look like the tankers have to wait around a long time before going through?
- protomyth 10y agoPart of it might be that tankers have been parked near the canal because of low oil prices. Some of them even skipped the canals (Panama and Suez) altogether to lengthen their route hoping for oil to go up.
- toomuchtodo 10y ago> Some of them even skipped the canals (Panama and Suez) altogether to lengthen their route hoping for oil to go up. No. It was because crude oil is so cheap, its cheaper to burn the oil than pay the Suez transit fees.
- protomyth 10y agoTrue, but tankers were also being parked all over.
- toomuchtodo 10y agoYeah, but not at transit points, at offloading points (notably Houston/Galveston).
- protomyth 10y agoReally, I thought I saw an article on it because of some weird scheduling, might be way off, they did blend together at the time.
- toomuchtodo 10y agohttp://gcaptain.com/oil-tanker-backlog-in-u-s-gulf-seen-as-new-symbol-of-glut/ http://gcaptain.com/oil-tanker-backlog-in-u-s-gulf-seen-as-n...
- winslow 10y ago"Time was another issue. The contract called for the work to be completed in 1,883 days so that the opening would coincide with the 100th anniversary of the canal’s 1914 inauguration." Boy do I love arbitrary deadlines!
- joering2 10y agoInstead of Hyperloop, Musk should have invented underwater canal system. I mean, ain't the ocean floor the inviting highway? with minor to none obstacles? Design multiple tubes inside each other (to compensate high pressure) and suspend it at 100m deep water level with computer-regulated height and start rolling cargo by using pressure pushing it from one end to the other. (I'm aware its bit more complicated than that, but you get the idea!)
- powera 10y agoI like the idea, but it seems completely impractical. How is this possibly cheaper than boats? Also, building a floating tube in the water seems a lot harder than an elevated tube on land, because you can't possibly reach the ocean floor for supports.
- joering2 10y agoIts cheaper because the differences in height/pressure between both ends would push the cargo on its own. It would be similar to drooping an object from height - when gravity works you don't need extra energy to push the object. You wont reach the floor. It would be suspended on simple "air bags" controlled by computer - again using the simple physics of gas in fluid being pushed upwards.
- nradov 10y agoEven after the completion of the Panama Canal expansion, many larger ships still won't bother to use it because they can't fit under the Bayonne Bridge to reach the major ports near New York. The bridge was supposed to be raised but work has been delayed due to engineering errors and bad weather. http://www.wsj.com/articles/as-expanded-panama-canal-prepares-to-open-new-york-isnt-ready-1466587807 http://www.wsj.com/articles/as-expanded-panama-canal-prepare...
- GFK_of_xmaspast 10y agoWhy would that make a difference?
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- disbelief 10y agoWow I had no idea this canal was such a disaster in the making, and the article didn't even mention the canal the Chinese are building in Nicaragua which would significantly shorten shipping routes compared to Panama.
- dalke 10y ago"Are building" is a bit premature. Quoting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicaragua_Canal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nicaragua_Canal : > "Major works" such as dredging will take place after a Pacific Ocean wharf is finished and the wharf's construction will not start until after August 2016. ... > Media reports have suggested the project would now be delayed or even possibly canceled because Wang Jing's personal wealth declined greatly as a result of the 2015–16 Chinese stock market crash.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- rando18423 10y agoAnd how's that one coming along
- Gustomaximus 10y agoGreat write up. I was really surprised about a few things; - They're aiming for concrete to last 100 years on the new lock. Doesn't this seem short sighted? The canal is already 100+ years old and its hardly like we'll be air freight and 3D printers in just another 100 years. - The lock size for these panamax ships being so tight. Current management issues aside, wouldn't it be prudent to plan for ship sizes to grow to new 'panamax' levels? Its reasonable to assume shipping companies will want larger ships 50 years from now, if not sooner. - $800,000 for a ship to cross. Wow
- oh_sigh 10y ago800k = $61/container for a neo panamax. Which is not bad at all when considering how much stuff can fit in a single container
- dmoy 10y agoThere already exist ships way larger than new panamax. So I don't think there was ever a question about planning for larger ships... Look at the specs of some of the suezmax ships or the vlcc/ulcc ships out there.
- walrus01 10y ago800k seems like a lot, but they know that shipping companies will do the math on the fuel+salaries+operating cost consumed by going the "long way", and how many round trips a ship can make per year between points A and B using the canal vs. going the long way around.
- tropo 10y agoIt cost Richard Halliburton only 36 cents to swim it. For 2016, the canal seems to have 7 different pricing schemes and some sort of loyalty discount for container ships. I'm surprised they don't price by the maximum width times the maximum length, plus per-hour charges for any required tug boats. Width times length relates well to the portion of the lock capacity being used by a ship.
- danielvf 10y ago
- joeyh 10y agoMy grandfather worked as a structural engineer on the canel. I have old papers with calculations of stress on the concrete, done by hand. http://www.archive.org/details/panama-canal-lock-design-papers http://www.archive.org/details/panama-canal-lock-design-pape... Anyway, since container ships are driving this expansion, I wonder if this is a case of scaling the old thing up unncessarily when new technology allows a different solution. Perhaps an overland transport for the containers across the ishthmus? Seems it would depend on the time needed to unload+load a container ship. Transit time through the canal is 8-10 hours, so if a ship can be turned around in that amount of time, it could be economical to not send it through the canal. I've found some indications that a unload+load can be done in 10-12 hours.
- danielvf 10y agoThe new canel is estimated to 6 ships a day carrying up to 14,000 containers apiece. You know the old joke about the bandwidth of a stationwagon full of hard drives? The new canal has a "bandwidth" of more a continuous container per second. Hard to do that with a railway.
- 51Cards 10y agoThat's pretty scary about the size issue... that the largest container ships + 2 tugs = the max size of the lock with no wiggle room. If a container ship drifts the tug has no where to go to escape being squashed.