3 ms·

Does it matter? The machine saw a pattern, and it responded to the pattern. We don't need to know.

datamingle 10y ago
If the machine is "anonymous", it does matter. Scenario #1: A human gets insider information that a Solar City will be bought. Makes his anonymous "AI machine" predict that Solar City is a great stock to buy!
- alexmingoia 10y ago
  That's not possible. The data is encrypted. None of the participants can see which stocks (or anything) about the data they train with. Numerai turns stock prediction into a pure ML problem.
  - theli0nheart 10y ago
    Doesn't the encrypted chart still need to display price history or volume? If so it seems like it'd be a trivial task to match it up with its real-world counterpart.
    - richard_craib 10y ago
      It would be easy to match an obfuscated stock market dataset with some third party dataset, and this has happened on many Kaggle competitions (data leaks). That's why the encryption here is important.
      - Someone 10y ago
        But how do you encrypt a stock's historical performance without removing the information (performs better in summer, went up after 9/11…) hidden inside it? You can add noise, but I doubt that will be enough.
    - ikeboy 10y ago
      See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homomorphic_encryption https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homomorphic_encryption, which they claim to use.
      - ves 10y ago
        There's no way in hell they're doing ML on cipher text. It's like orders upon orders of magnitudes too slow.
    - emkman 10y ago
      The model has no idea what stock it is predicting. It is just a random ID that represents a security. Further, there are no encrypted charts and no ability to backtest your model outside of the small amount of data provided by Numerai. Download the csv's. They are much smaller than I expected.
  - jldugger 10y ago
    Okay, submit hundreds of bots, and have them generate random picks. One gets lucky, and is selected for hilighting.
    - richard_craib 10y ago
      Check your coin toss math on 1000, 10000, 100000 predictions.
  - discardorama 10y ago
    So when your "AI" makes a recommendation, it recommends some encrypted symbol?
oneloop 10y ago
Yes, it does matter. Following the machine without understanding what's going on is how you make mistakes.

If the machine is "anonymous", it does matter. Scenario #1: A human gets insider information that a Solar City will be bought. Makes his anonymous "AI machine" predict that Solar City is a great stock to buy!

alexmingoia 10y ago
That's not possible. The data is encrypted. None of the participants can see which stocks (or anything) about the data they train with. Numerai turns stock prediction into a pure ML problem.
- theli0nheart 10y ago
  Doesn't the encrypted chart still need to display price history or volume? If so it seems like it'd be a trivial task to match it up with its real-world counterpart.
  - richard_craib 10y ago
    It would be easy to match an obfuscated stock market dataset with some third party dataset, and this has happened on many Kaggle competitions (data leaks). That's why the encryption here is important.
    - Someone 10y ago
      But how do you encrypt a stock's historical performance without removing the information (performs better in summer, went up after 9/11…) hidden inside it? You can add noise, but I doubt that will be enough.
  - ikeboy 10y ago
    See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homomorphic_encryption https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homomorphic_encryption, which they claim to use.
    - ves 10y ago
      There's no way in hell they're doing ML on cipher text. It's like orders upon orders of magnitudes too slow.
  - emkman 10y ago
    The model has no idea what stock it is predicting. It is just a random ID that represents a security. Further, there are no encrypted charts and no ability to backtest your model outside of the small amount of data provided by Numerai. Download the csv's. They are much smaller than I expected.
- jldugger 10y ago
  Okay, submit hundreds of bots, and have them generate random picks. One gets lucky, and is selected for hilighting.
  - richard_craib 10y ago
    Check your coin toss math on 1000, 10000, 100000 predictions.
- discardorama 10y ago
  So when your "AI" makes a recommendation, it recommends some encrypted symbol?

oneloop 10y ago

Yes, it does matter. Following the machine without understanding what's going on is how you make mistakes.