5 ms·

Probably the only good reason for anyone to vote to leave the EU is to reduce demand on housing stock.

by chillydawg 10y ago

matrizao 10y ago
true, but that will probably decrease wages too
- tremon 10y ago
  It can be argued that the influx of "cheap" European migrants also keeps wages down. I think there's just too many variables to make an accurate prediction on housing prices or wages in either scenario.
- deviate_X 10y ago
  The aim of BREXIT is to reduce immigration. _IF_ that truly happens (and i seriously doubt that the "Borrises" are actually genuine about this) then local-uk wages will increase especially for skilled labour. Low wage producer's will simply be replaced by foreign imports, increasing the deficit unless of course the UK engages in a protectionist war with EU and EVERYONE else... (which it won't do).
  - ZenoArrow 10y ago
    > "The aim of BREXIT is to reduce immigration." That's not the only aim. The EU isn't truly democratic. The central body of power in the EU is the European Commission, and they're not democratically elected. The European Commission is the only group in the EU with the power to propose new legislation, no members of the European Parliament can do so. I'll be voting to leave purely because I believe in democracy. I want elected representatives to have the power to represent the public, instead of being employed provide a veneer of respectability to a deeply flawed institution. I certainly won't be doing so over immigration as I believe immigration provides a net benefit to the UK.
    - DanBC 10y ago
      > I'll be voting to leave purely because I believe in democracy. Without looking them up are you able to name all your local councillors?
      - ZenoArrow 10y ago
        No. Your point being?
        DanBC 10y ago
        A lot of people talk about how important democracy is, but when given an important bit of local democracy they show they're not involved. Most people don't know the differences between the town council and their local authority; they have no idea who their councillors are; they might not even know which party has control.
        ZenoArrow 10y ago
        So in other words you assumed that I didn't care about local democracy, and therefore implied I was a hypocrite. For what it's worth, I voted in the local elections held this year, have voted in general elections, and have even met up with my local MP to discuss financial reform. Furthermore, the idea of a representative democracy is that you elect people to work on your behalf. You do so because it's a full time job to stay abreast about all political issues. Even if I knew the names of all my local councillors, knowing their names doesn't give me any insight into the decisions being made. Most of us have a limited range of interests, I could tell you about political activity I'm interested in, would that satisfy you that I'm paying attention?
      - throwaway049 10y ago
        I can't, but I did get a vote to pick them. I don't think your question speaks to the issue of the European commission being unelected.
        10y ago
retox 10y ago
This is actually touted as a positive and a negative by the respective camps.
pmlnr 10y ago
Right. Not calculating with the price rise of _everything else_, especially food.
alphydan 10y ago
Are you sure about that? What about the 1 million 'immigrants' that may all of a sudden have to leave the South of Spain, South of France, Ireland, etc. It's a possibility that most of those British expats would have to come back to the UK. Most of them don't contribute much to those countries (other than spending as a pensioner, using the local health-care or having low qualified jobs).
- moopling 10y ago
  I was talking to a Spanish friend of mine about the same thing. They thought the Spanish government would be quick to sign some kind of agreement to keep expats there, as many of them are pensioners and who function as a kind of cash injection into the Spanish economy.
  - alphydan 10y ago
    Well, that's exactly what immigrants do in the UK (contribute more than they take by certain metrics [0]), ... but it doesn't stop the hostility in the media. In Spain the perception is that Brits in the south are low qualified and old and that they have driven up the price of housing with their real estate speculation. When young, they are perceived as violent and disrespectful (probably the image created by short-term young binge-drinking tourists). It's certainly prejudice and first impressions, but that's the kind of irrational reactions you could see after a UK exit if Spain is struggling with its own economy. I had heard the opposite statement, by the way, that they took more from the healthcare than they contributed ... but my google-fu failed me. Do you have a reference? (I don't know what the answer is either way) [0] http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29910497 http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29910497
    - UVB-76 10y ago
      > Well, that's exactly what immigrants do in the UK (contribute more than they take by certain metrics [0]), ... but it doesn't stop the hostility in the media. Counter-argument to that is that immigrants are simply crowding out British citizens (particularly young people, huge numbers of which are unemployed, or significantly underemployed) in the jobs market. It is effectively jobs that make the contribution, whether they are filled by British citizens or EU nationals.
creshal 10y ago
How is that related?
deviate_X 10y ago
If the UK leaves the EU, then it may become even an even more attractive safe haven for foreign-capital investments, given that the whole point of BREXIT is the limit the reach of the EU authorities.
- dagw 10y ago
  What it should do is give the UK government more control over if they want to make it more or less attractive. Which way they actually turn that lever if it comes down to it is very much an open question, and probably dependent on the results from the next election. Personally I'm not convinced the government would want to force out all that foreign capital and they may even be tempted to try to attract more.
  - jlangenauer 10y ago
    Ultimately, the UK economy is very dependent on the housing bubble that has built up over the last decade. Governments will be forced to do everything they can to keep it inflated, as if it pops, then the damage to the UK economy will be immeasurable.
    - mrec 10y ago
      I think it's a when, not an if. The only way to avoid a housing pop is to not blow a housing bubble, and it's a little late for that. Yes, it'll cause pain. The longer they keep kicking the can down the road, the more people get sucked into buying at comically inflated prices on the assumption of ZIRP+HPI forever, the more painful it'll be. And the politics are slowly but surely changing, as the shut-out shift from an easily-ignorable minority to a near-majority.
madaxe_again 10y ago
There is a vast amount of empty housing in this country. There are places where you can still buy a street of habitable homes for under £100k. There is even a huge amount of vacant property in London, most of it owned by large landlords who don't need the incremental income and associated hassle, as just sitting on vacant properties waiting for the market to rise is enough. No, the problem is not migrants placing demand on housing stock - it is those that are telling you these fabrications, and the completely broken housing market that they built while you and I were still suckling our mothers' teats.
- imtringued 10y ago
  If housing prices didn't rise then nobody would speculate. The foreign investments are just the symptom amplifying the original problem.
  - TheOtherHobbes 10y ago
    House prices rises are engineered. The latest bubble was created by offering huge tax breaks to landlords who would take on a mortgage on buy-to-let property. This is easy money for the banks. They get most of the rental income in mortgage payments on a secured loan, while using the landlords as agents. Foreign investors go where the bubbles are, and leave when the bubbles pop - which the London bubble is doing now. Anyone who got in after 2008 made out like a bandit. But the party is over now, and we could be moving into hangover territory.
  - wavefunction 10y ago
    A house's primary purpose is to provide housing. Speculation by capital should be the lowest priority of anyone's concern while formulating a housing strategy.
iamflimflam1 10y ago
Well, house prices will go down as the economy completely tanks.
kjjw 10y ago
No. Westminster government has been obsessed with London as a finance centre to the exclusion of the rest of the country. Leaving the EU will only make things worse in London.

Probably the only good reason for anyone to vote to leave the EU is to reduce demand on housing stock.

matrizao 10y ago

true, but that will probably decrease wages too

tremon 10y ago
It can be argued that the influx of "cheap" European migrants also keeps wages down. I think there's just too many variables to make an accurate prediction on housing prices or wages in either scenario.
deviate_X 10y ago
The aim of BREXIT is to reduce immigration. _IF_ that truly happens (and i seriously doubt that the "Borrises" are actually genuine about this) then local-uk wages will increase especially for skilled labour. Low wage producer's will simply be replaced by foreign imports, increasing the deficit unless of course the UK engages in a protectionist war with EU and EVERYONE else... (which it won't do).
- ZenoArrow 10y ago
  > "The aim of BREXIT is to reduce immigration." That's not the only aim. The EU isn't truly democratic. The central body of power in the EU is the European Commission, and they're not democratically elected. The European Commission is the only group in the EU with the power to propose new legislation, no members of the European Parliament can do so. I'll be voting to leave purely because I believe in democracy. I want elected representatives to have the power to represent the public, instead of being employed provide a veneer of respectability to a deeply flawed institution. I certainly won't be doing so over immigration as I believe immigration provides a net benefit to the UK.
  - DanBC 10y ago
    > I'll be voting to leave purely because I believe in democracy. Without looking them up are you able to name all your local councillors?
    - ZenoArrow 10y ago
      No. Your point being?
      - DanBC 10y ago
        A lot of people talk about how important democracy is, but when given an important bit of local democracy they show they're not involved. Most people don't know the differences between the town council and their local authority; they have no idea who their councillors are; they might not even know which party has control.
        ZenoArrow 10y ago
        So in other words you assumed that I didn't care about local democracy, and therefore implied I was a hypocrite. For what it's worth, I voted in the local elections held this year, have voted in general elections, and have even met up with my local MP to discuss financial reform. Furthermore, the idea of a representative democracy is that you elect people to work on your behalf. You do so because it's a full time job to stay abreast about all political issues. Even if I knew the names of all my local councillors, knowing their names doesn't give me any insight into the decisions being made. Most of us have a limited range of interests, I could tell you about political activity I'm interested in, would that satisfy you that I'm paying attention?
    - throwaway049 10y ago
      I can't, but I did get a vote to pick them. I don't think your question speaks to the issue of the European commission being unelected.
      - 10y ago

retox 10y ago

This is actually touted as a positive and a negative by the respective camps.

pmlnr 10y ago

Right. Not calculating with the price rise of _everything else_, especially food.

alphydan 10y ago

Are you sure about that? What about the 1 million 'immigrants' that may all of a sudden have to leave the South of Spain, South of France, Ireland, etc. It's a possibility that most of those British expats would have to come back to the UK. Most of them don't contribute much to those countries (other than spending as a pensioner, using the local health-care or having low qualified jobs).

moopling 10y ago
I was talking to a Spanish friend of mine about the same thing. They thought the Spanish government would be quick to sign some kind of agreement to keep expats there, as many of them are pensioners and who function as a kind of cash injection into the Spanish economy.
- alphydan 10y ago
  Well, that's exactly what immigrants do in the UK (contribute more than they take by certain metrics [0]), ... but it doesn't stop the hostility in the media. In Spain the perception is that Brits in the south are low qualified and old and that they have driven up the price of housing with their real estate speculation. When young, they are perceived as violent and disrespectful (probably the image created by short-term young binge-drinking tourists). It's certainly prejudice and first impressions, but that's the kind of irrational reactions you could see after a UK exit if Spain is struggling with its own economy. I had heard the opposite statement, by the way, that they took more from the healthcare than they contributed ... but my google-fu failed me. Do you have a reference? (I don't know what the answer is either way) [0] http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29910497 http://www.bbc.com/news/business-29910497
  - UVB-76 10y ago
    > Well, that's exactly what immigrants do in the UK (contribute more than they take by certain metrics [0]), ... but it doesn't stop the hostility in the media. Counter-argument to that is that immigrants are simply crowding out British citizens (particularly young people, huge numbers of which are unemployed, or significantly underemployed) in the jobs market. It is effectively jobs that make the contribution, whether they are filled by British citizens or EU nationals.

creshal 10y ago

How is that related?

deviate_X 10y ago

If the UK leaves the EU, then it may become even an even more attractive safe haven for foreign-capital investments, given that the whole point of BREXIT is the limit the reach of the EU authorities.

dagw 10y ago
What it should do is give the UK government more control over if they want to make it more or less attractive. Which way they actually turn that lever if it comes down to it is very much an open question, and probably dependent on the results from the next election. Personally I'm not convinced the government would want to force out all that foreign capital and they may even be tempted to try to attract more.
- jlangenauer 10y ago
  Ultimately, the UK economy is very dependent on the housing bubble that has built up over the last decade. Governments will be forced to do everything they can to keep it inflated, as if it pops, then the damage to the UK economy will be immeasurable.
  - mrec 10y ago
    I think it's a when, not an if. The only way to avoid a housing pop is to not blow a housing bubble, and it's a little late for that. Yes, it'll cause pain. The longer they keep kicking the can down the road, the more people get sucked into buying at comically inflated prices on the assumption of ZIRP+HPI forever, the more painful it'll be. And the politics are slowly but surely changing, as the shut-out shift from an easily-ignorable minority to a near-majority.

madaxe_again 10y ago

There is a vast amount of empty housing in this country. There are places where you can still buy a street of habitable homes for under £100k. There is even a huge amount of vacant property in London, most of it owned by large landlords who don't need the incremental income and associated hassle, as just sitting on vacant properties waiting for the market to rise is enough. No, the problem is not migrants placing demand on housing stock - it is those that are telling you these fabrications, and the completely broken housing market that they built while you and I were still suckling our mothers' teats.

imtringued 10y ago
If housing prices didn't rise then nobody would speculate. The foreign investments are just the symptom amplifying the original problem.
- TheOtherHobbes 10y ago
  House prices rises are engineered. The latest bubble was created by offering huge tax breaks to landlords who would take on a mortgage on buy-to-let property. This is easy money for the banks. They get most of the rental income in mortgage payments on a secured loan, while using the landlords as agents. Foreign investors go where the bubbles are, and leave when the bubbles pop - which the London bubble is doing now. Anyone who got in after 2008 made out like a bandit. But the party is over now, and we could be moving into hangover territory.
- wavefunction 10y ago
  A house's primary purpose is to provide housing. Speculation by capital should be the lowest priority of anyone's concern while formulating a housing strategy.

iamflimflam1 10y ago

Well, house prices will go down as the economy completely tanks.

kjjw 10y ago

No. Westminster government has been obsessed with London as a finance centre to the exclusion of the rest of the country. Leaving the EU will only make things worse in London.