7 ms·

iPhone Future

31 points by shawndumas 10y ago

Oletros 10y ago
> particularly when compared to the company’s competitors whose reliance on an increasingly fragmented Android macrocosm isn’t likely to lead to a polished, reliable experience. I would know why he says that Android fragmentation is increasing and what he means with fragmentatoin
- macalicious 10y ago
  You don't disagree, do you? More and more companies are using an Android OS, thus, the increasing amount of (device) fragmentation.
  - Oletros 10y ago
    What do you mean with "fragmentation"?
- jsjohnst 10y ago
  What percentage of the market is running Marshmellow? How many are even 5.0+? That's one serious indicator of fragmentation alone (there's a lot more), and trends don't show it improving. Edit: Here's a link to some numbers from Google [0]. Per their own chart, ~55% of Android users are running a 3 year old or older OS. [0] https://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html#Platform https://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html#Pl...
  - bobbyi_settv 10y ago
    The average consumer doesn't know or care if there phone is on 4.0 or 4.1 or whatever. They care if their phone works well and integrates well with the services they care about. There isn't much sign that Apple is going to overtake Android in the ways that matter anytime soon, regardless of which exact version your are running.
    - jsjohnst 10y ago
      They care when the app the want to install doesn't run and they can't upgrade their phone. I know that's been a factor for many who have switched back to iOS that I know. Furthermore, I made ZERO claims iOS would overtake Android (very likely never will, in fact I'd bet on it never happening), I answered a question re: fragmentation. I also responded factually with a link to an unarguable source (so the down voters prove their hater mentality denying facts, but alas).
      - chipperyman573 10y ago
        There hasn't really been a major issue with app compatibility since 2.3. Even so, all but 2.3% of android phones are running 4.x or above. http://www.statista.com/statistics/271774/ http://www.statista.com/statistics/271774/
        zanny 10y ago
        If you are stuck targeting Android API version 14 forever, that is a problem. It means Google can never introduce anything new that people can actually use without alienating a portion of the userbase. Albeit, that was also a perceived huge issue four years ago with 2.3 and version 9, and today all those 2.3 devices are mostly gone. But in the same way the mhz race was a limited time thing, and after that personal computer sales slowed drastically because the year over year improvements have been much more minute, Google cannot just assume that the planned obsolesce of contract phones will force users to change hardware to keep pace with the OS. A lot of the 4.x era Android devices will be "good enough" for many people in the same way Core 2 was "good enough" for most casual PC users. And we have seen the fallout of that. Users do not care if their Windows XP is catastrophically insecure when no longer updated, they keep using it until disaster strikes. And the same is bound to happen to all these Android phones that stop getting updates. I don't think I've ever seen greater technical debt than the accumulated mess of Android device drivers and the OEM habit of forking the kernel and violating the GPL to stick proprietary blobs in and then freeze the kernel, which means every device is on a forced obsolescence cycle whenever their kernel can no longer work with the latest Android requirements.
cageface 10y ago
the iPhone will surely not go the way of the iPod. Apple’s “pocket computer” is more likely to follow the trajectory of the Macintosh: It will continue to take a significant but slowly growing share of the market, while pocketing a large share of the profits. Apple's market share continues to slide, as his own graph shows. If he expects Apple's market share to grow he should explain why. So far all the indicators point the other way.
- flyinglizard 10y ago
  I think that a definitive conclusion on Apple's stand in the market calls for more elaborate analysis of the data. For example, if the majority of the growth in the overall mobile market is attributed to low cost smartphones, it'd be likely for Apple to miss on that. AFAIK, Apple doesn't lose customers, it just doesn't gain as many as the overall market - and it still outpeforms the other mobile makers on revenues/profit by a huge margin.
- jsjohnst 10y ago
  Are we looking at the same article? 1) he shows no graph depicting anything to do with market share, let alone one showing it sliding. There's two graphs, one showing a dip in sales volume, another showing a dip in overall smartphone buying. 2) he did explain why he thought that, near the end of the article
  - cageface 10y ago
    iPhone sales are slowing, Android sales are not: http://www.macrumors.com/2016/06/02/meeker-2016-internet-trends/ http://www.macrumors.com/2016/06/02/meeker-2016-internet-tre... So market share is declining. The reasons he gives for Apple's market share to increase are not new. They have been losing ground despite the conditions he describes. If we wants to argue that Apple is going to reverse this trend he needs to give new reasons.
    - gek0gk0 10y ago
      To date, this has been offset by the fact that iOS devices have much longer average lives than Android devices, and are routinely resold one or more times.
51Cards 10y ago
He says that he sees other phones acting as a gateway to iPhones but I seem to see the reverse happening. I have seen a number of users getting frustrated with the lack of options in the iPhone market and moving on to other devices more tailored to their personal needs. The "generic" iPhone is what they bought first until they found more appealing devices that suited their specific desires better. I know very few people who've gone from Android to iPhone, especially in the last couple years.
- sxg 10y ago
  Your anecdotal experiences definitely don't match my anecdotal experiences. I think we need to be careful with these kinds of stories.
  - jsjohnst 10y ago
    I've seen a number of the transitions he saw a couple years ago, but an almost equal number coming back now. Many I know that switched, are now coming back, realizing that "cute customizations don't offset the fact things just work better on iOS" (not looking to get in a debate, just repeating what they said).
    - sxg 10y ago
      I personally switched from an iPhone 4S to an HTC One M7 for the bigger screen size, but I switched back after less than 6 months because I couldn't get over the lack of consistency in the Android experience. There were duplicate apps with different design styles, multiple text messaging apps, etc. I found I had more choices in general on Android, but it was rare to find an option that I was completely satisfied with. If I decide to go back to Android, I would only get a Nexus device with stock Android. That may fix the majority of my complaints with Android.
      - jsjohnst 10y ago
        I really like my Nexus 6P (GoogleFi edition). It's a great phone all around. Better than my 6S, no, but it's definitely a very good quality phone and one I'd recommend if someone hated iOS.
api 10y ago
Now that paid apps are almost dead, what would Apple actually lose by opening up the platform a little? I mean the app store model mostly. It's high degree of restriction seems like it's holding the platform back and keeping it from eating more market share from desktop. Of course maybe that's not something they want. Apple still sells laptops and desktops and a more open iOS could eat into Mac.
- ceejayoz 10y ago
  > Now that paid apps are almost dead, what would Apple actually lose by opening up the platform a little? Its reputation for being mostly malware-free, for starters.
  - api 10y ago
    We need to really fix platform security.
- indianhippie 10y ago
  Paid apps are far from dead. I buy apps all the time. I bought a watch face for Pebble half hour ago. Developers need to feed their families and I see buying quality apps very similar to buying good coffee or food.
  - cageface 10y ago
    You are an outlier: http://www.recode.net/2016/6/8/11883518/app-boom-over-snapchat-uber http://www.recode.net/2016/6/8/11883518/app-boom-over-snapch... All the indie iOS devs I know gave up long ago and took regular jobs writing apps for companies that give the app away for free as part of some larger business model.
LargeCompanies 10y ago
As a seven year iPhone owner I'm bored by it! Why isn't it water proof yet? Why hasn't Apple released a wireless charging feature? Why haven't they come up with something freaking amazing..iWatch no one wants that. Apple TV with Apple cable TV service people might want that but why haven't they bought Dish who has sling TV or made similar purchases? I don't think I'm the only bored iPhone owner?
- indianhippie 10y ago
  I couldn't agree with you more. I'm bored. The thing is I like the simplicity of iPhones and I have been using them for past 7 years as well. Now it got to a point where small incremental features were not doing anything for me. I switched to Nexus 6P recently. It is one hell of a phone. So many features, so much customization! The access to file system (not root) is one thing that I would not be able to live without anymore. Having directories to put files and music in is so simple and similar to using a Mac/PC. I do miss iMessage and FaceTime though. If the rumor about WWDC bringing iMessage to Android is true I don't see a reason to go back to the iPhone.
  - subpixel 10y ago
    > Having directories to put files and music in is so simple This could be the reason I finally ditch my iPhone. I want to grab a file on my Mac, push it to my phone, and not A) have to use a paid app to do it without iTunes or B) have that file be automatically sent to some stupid place on the phone (audiobooks, ibooks, etc.)
    - comex 10y ago
      You can, as of iOS 9. Drag the files to iCloud Drive on your Mac (which is a full filesystem), and either access them from an iOS app that can open files directly from iCloud Drive, or enable the iCloud Drive iOS app in the settings and use the share sheet to get the files into the app you want.
      - 10y ago
post_break 10y ago
I switched back from Android for the 6s because I was tired of fragmentation and terrible battery life. I gave up a lot, customizations, amazing tweaks, workflows, etc. I miss Android. There are so many things I can't do on iOS and it frustrates me. Siri is no comparison to Google now. (You make some sacrifices here) Using iTunes to manage everything from apps to music is a buzzkill. Homekit is a bag of hurt. You are stuck with the default apps. Want to use Gmail or Outlook? Chrome? Google Maps or Nokia Maps? Too bad. I'm putting up with these compromises because at the time the 810 wasn't performing well and on Android smaller screens means lower performance.
- cdubzzz 10y ago
  > You are stuck with the default apps. Want to use Gmail or Outlook? Chrome? Google Maps or Nokia Maps? Too bad. I'm confused. What do you mean by this?
  - post_break 10y ago
    If ask siri to route me somewhere it only opens Apple Maps. Same for clicking on an email link. Tap a URL and it opens Safari every time.
    - cdubzzz 10y ago
      Ah, gotcha. Does the Google app allow more custom integration? https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/google-app-search-made-just/id284815942 https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/google-app-search-made-just/...
      - post_break 10y ago
        They are hard links in iOS, nothing you can do to change the default apps unfortunately.
- crapolasplatter 10y ago
  "I switched back from Android for the 6s because I was tired of fragmentation and terrible battery life. " I can relate. I had some many fragmentation problems with android that I said I'm done with it, then I tried Iphone. However, I returned my iphone before my trial period expired. I just couldn't sacrifice the android UI flow, multitasking ease of use, and a open ecosystem. So I ended up getting the Note 3 when it first came out . That was like 3 years ago and I still have the same phone without any issues. My batters is now finally starting to give out and is only lasting about 6-8 hrs with use. However a new battery is only like 7 bucks on amazon. I think 2 things happened that improved my fragmentation issue with android. Android itself has matured but more importantly I stopped all the automatic updates from my carrier and apps. I observed with my previous android devices that once a new phone came out all the sudden my phone became slow as molasses . I'm under the opinion with nothing to back it up with, other than my observations is that the carrier (atleast ATT) updates the phone and purposely degrades performances with newer apps and updates to get you to buy a new one. I don't think this is possible on the iphones because I don't believe that the carrier is allowed to bastardize it like android but I could be wrong? However that has been my observation and the one advantage I see for ios.
bitmapbrother 10y ago
>After letting Samsung and others take the lead in large screen smartphones (5.5” or larger phablets), Apple Finally introduced its own large iPhone 6 Plus in September 2014. What an ignorant comment. Samsung pioneered the large screen smartphone. They took the risk when everyone was mocking the size of their phones as if they were jokes. Once the market proved them correct everyone else rushed in - including Apple. To belittle this accomplishment speaks to this person's bias towards Apple. Apple never let Samsung take the lead in large screen smartphones - instead they did what they usually do - wait for another player to create the market and then move in on it.
- skygazer 10y ago
  I think your description of what happened is exactly what is meant by "letting Samsung and others take the lead" -- Apple let itself be surpassed, in that it could have done otherwise, but didn't.
surds 10y ago
After a series of Android devices, my first iPhone was the 6 Plus. The main reasons for me switching over were: 1. Ridiculously reliable battery. (People who have used both platforms will mostly agree, I think.) 2. 6 Plus was the first iPhone that did not seem tiny to me. 3. I really wanted to use it myself for a while and form my own opinions. A year and a half of use later, my thoughts: 1. Totally awesome battery experience. 2. It's good, stable, reliable but it gets so... boring. My next phone, whenever it is, is probably going to be the largest Nexus device available. On a side note, it is so great to read a series of comments about iOS and Android that does not degenerate into a trolling competition.
- cageface 10y ago
  FWIW battery life on my Nexus 6p has been very good and also consistent. Nexus is definitely the way to go if you want an Android phone.

31 points by shawndumas 10y ago

> particularly when compared to the company’s competitors whose reliance on an increasingly fragmented Android macrocosm isn’t likely to lead to a polished, reliable experience. I would know why he says that Android fragmentation is increasing and what he means with fragmentatoin

macalicious 10y ago
You don't disagree, do you? More and more companies are using an Android OS, thus, the increasing amount of (device) fragmentation.
- Oletros 10y ago
  What do you mean with "fragmentation"?
jsjohnst 10y ago
What percentage of the market is running Marshmellow? How many are even 5.0+? That's one serious indicator of fragmentation alone (there's a lot more), and trends don't show it improving. Edit: Here's a link to some numbers from Google [0]. Per their own chart, ~55% of Android users are running a 3 year old or older OS. [0] https://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html#Platform https://developer.android.com/about/dashboards/index.html#Pl...
- bobbyi_settv 10y ago
  The average consumer doesn't know or care if there phone is on 4.0 or 4.1 or whatever. They care if their phone works well and integrates well with the services they care about. There isn't much sign that Apple is going to overtake Android in the ways that matter anytime soon, regardless of which exact version your are running.
  - jsjohnst 10y ago
    They care when the app the want to install doesn't run and they can't upgrade their phone. I know that's been a factor for many who have switched back to iOS that I know. Furthermore, I made ZERO claims iOS would overtake Android (very likely never will, in fact I'd bet on it never happening), I answered a question re: fragmentation. I also responded factually with a link to an unarguable source (so the down voters prove their hater mentality denying facts, but alas).
    - chipperyman573 10y ago
      There hasn't really been a major issue with app compatibility since 2.3. Even so, all but 2.3% of android phones are running 4.x or above. http://www.statista.com/statistics/271774/ http://www.statista.com/statistics/271774/
      - zanny 10y ago
        If you are stuck targeting Android API version 14 forever, that is a problem. It means Google can never introduce anything new that people can actually use without alienating a portion of the userbase. Albeit, that was also a perceived huge issue four years ago with 2.3 and version 9, and today all those 2.3 devices are mostly gone. But in the same way the mhz race was a limited time thing, and after that personal computer sales slowed drastically because the year over year improvements have been much more minute, Google cannot just assume that the planned obsolesce of contract phones will force users to change hardware to keep pace with the OS. A lot of the 4.x era Android devices will be "good enough" for many people in the same way Core 2 was "good enough" for most casual PC users. And we have seen the fallout of that. Users do not care if their Windows XP is catastrophically insecure when no longer updated, they keep using it until disaster strikes. And the same is bound to happen to all these Android phones that stop getting updates. I don't think I've ever seen greater technical debt than the accumulated mess of Android device drivers and the OEM habit of forking the kernel and violating the GPL to stick proprietary blobs in and then freeze the kernel, which means every device is on a forced obsolescence cycle whenever their kernel can no longer work with the latest Android requirements.

cageface 10y ago

the iPhone will surely not go the way of the iPod. Apple’s “pocket computer” is more likely to follow the trajectory of the Macintosh: It will continue to take a significant but slowly growing share of the market, while pocketing a large share of the profits. Apple's market share continues to slide, as his own graph shows. If he expects Apple's market share to grow he should explain why. So far all the indicators point the other way.

flyinglizard 10y ago
I think that a definitive conclusion on Apple's stand in the market calls for more elaborate analysis of the data. For example, if the majority of the growth in the overall mobile market is attributed to low cost smartphones, it'd be likely for Apple to miss on that. AFAIK, Apple doesn't lose customers, it just doesn't gain as many as the overall market - and it still outpeforms the other mobile makers on revenues/profit by a huge margin.
jsjohnst 10y ago
Are we looking at the same article? 1) he shows no graph depicting anything to do with market share, let alone one showing it sliding. There's two graphs, one showing a dip in sales volume, another showing a dip in overall smartphone buying. 2) he did explain why he thought that, near the end of the article
- cageface 10y ago
  iPhone sales are slowing, Android sales are not: http://www.macrumors.com/2016/06/02/meeker-2016-internet-trends/ http://www.macrumors.com/2016/06/02/meeker-2016-internet-tre... So market share is declining. The reasons he gives for Apple's market share to increase are not new. They have been losing ground despite the conditions he describes. If we wants to argue that Apple is going to reverse this trend he needs to give new reasons.
  - gek0gk0 10y ago
    To date, this has been offset by the fact that iOS devices have much longer average lives than Android devices, and are routinely resold one or more times.

51Cards 10y ago

He says that he sees other phones acting as a gateway to iPhones but I seem to see the reverse happening. I have seen a number of users getting frustrated with the lack of options in the iPhone market and moving on to other devices more tailored to their personal needs. The "generic" iPhone is what they bought first until they found more appealing devices that suited their specific desires better. I know very few people who've gone from Android to iPhone, especially in the last couple years.

sxg 10y ago
Your anecdotal experiences definitely don't match my anecdotal experiences. I think we need to be careful with these kinds of stories.
- jsjohnst 10y ago
  I've seen a number of the transitions he saw a couple years ago, but an almost equal number coming back now. Many I know that switched, are now coming back, realizing that "cute customizations don't offset the fact things just work better on iOS" (not looking to get in a debate, just repeating what they said).
  - sxg 10y ago
    I personally switched from an iPhone 4S to an HTC One M7 for the bigger screen size, but I switched back after less than 6 months because I couldn't get over the lack of consistency in the Android experience. There were duplicate apps with different design styles, multiple text messaging apps, etc. I found I had more choices in general on Android, but it was rare to find an option that I was completely satisfied with. If I decide to go back to Android, I would only get a Nexus device with stock Android. That may fix the majority of my complaints with Android.
    - jsjohnst 10y ago
      I really like my Nexus 6P (GoogleFi edition). It's a great phone all around. Better than my 6S, no, but it's definitely a very good quality phone and one I'd recommend if someone hated iOS.

api 10y ago

Now that paid apps are almost dead, what would Apple actually lose by opening up the platform a little? I mean the app store model mostly. It's high degree of restriction seems like it's holding the platform back and keeping it from eating more market share from desktop. Of course maybe that's not something they want. Apple still sells laptops and desktops and a more open iOS could eat into Mac.

ceejayoz 10y ago
> Now that paid apps are almost dead, what would Apple actually lose by opening up the platform a little? Its reputation for being mostly malware-free, for starters.
- api 10y ago
  We need to really fix platform security.
indianhippie 10y ago
Paid apps are far from dead. I buy apps all the time. I bought a watch face for Pebble half hour ago. Developers need to feed their families and I see buying quality apps very similar to buying good coffee or food.
- cageface 10y ago
  You are an outlier: http://www.recode.net/2016/6/8/11883518/app-boom-over-snapchat-uber http://www.recode.net/2016/6/8/11883518/app-boom-over-snapch... All the indie iOS devs I know gave up long ago and took regular jobs writing apps for companies that give the app away for free as part of some larger business model.

LargeCompanies 10y ago

As a seven year iPhone owner I'm bored by it! Why isn't it water proof yet? Why hasn't Apple released a wireless charging feature? Why haven't they come up with something freaking amazing..iWatch no one wants that. Apple TV with Apple cable TV service people might want that but why haven't they bought Dish who has sling TV or made similar purchases? I don't think I'm the only bored iPhone owner?

indianhippie 10y ago
I couldn't agree with you more. I'm bored. The thing is I like the simplicity of iPhones and I have been using them for past 7 years as well. Now it got to a point where small incremental features were not doing anything for me. I switched to Nexus 6P recently. It is one hell of a phone. So many features, so much customization! The access to file system (not root) is one thing that I would not be able to live without anymore. Having directories to put files and music in is so simple and similar to using a Mac/PC. I do miss iMessage and FaceTime though. If the rumor about WWDC bringing iMessage to Android is true I don't see a reason to go back to the iPhone.
- subpixel 10y ago
  > Having directories to put files and music in is so simple This could be the reason I finally ditch my iPhone. I want to grab a file on my Mac, push it to my phone, and not A) have to use a paid app to do it without iTunes or B) have that file be automatically sent to some stupid place on the phone (audiobooks, ibooks, etc.)
  - comex 10y ago
    You can, as of iOS 9. Drag the files to iCloud Drive on your Mac (which is a full filesystem), and either access them from an iOS app that can open files directly from iCloud Drive, or enable the iCloud Drive iOS app in the settings and use the share sheet to get the files into the app you want.
    - 10y ago

post_break 10y ago

I switched back from Android for the 6s because I was tired of fragmentation and terrible battery life. I gave up a lot, customizations, amazing tweaks, workflows, etc. I miss Android. There are so many things I can't do on iOS and it frustrates me. Siri is no comparison to Google now. (You make some sacrifices here) Using iTunes to manage everything from apps to music is a buzzkill. Homekit is a bag of hurt. You are stuck with the default apps. Want to use Gmail or Outlook? Chrome? Google Maps or Nokia Maps? Too bad. I'm putting up with these compromises because at the time the 810 wasn't performing well and on Android smaller screens means lower performance.

cdubzzz 10y ago
> You are stuck with the default apps. Want to use Gmail or Outlook? Chrome? Google Maps or Nokia Maps? Too bad. I'm confused. What do you mean by this?
- post_break 10y ago
  If ask siri to route me somewhere it only opens Apple Maps. Same for clicking on an email link. Tap a URL and it opens Safari every time.
  - cdubzzz 10y ago
    Ah, gotcha. Does the Google app allow more custom integration? https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/google-app-search-made-just/id284815942 https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/google-app-search-made-just/...
    - post_break 10y ago
      They are hard links in iOS, nothing you can do to change the default apps unfortunately.
crapolasplatter 10y ago
"I switched back from Android for the 6s because I was tired of fragmentation and terrible battery life. " I can relate. I had some many fragmentation problems with android that I said I'm done with it, then I tried Iphone. However, I returned my iphone before my trial period expired. I just couldn't sacrifice the android UI flow, multitasking ease of use, and a open ecosystem. So I ended up getting the Note 3 when it first came out . That was like 3 years ago and I still have the same phone without any issues. My batters is now finally starting to give out and is only lasting about 6-8 hrs with use. However a new battery is only like 7 bucks on amazon. I think 2 things happened that improved my fragmentation issue with android. Android itself has matured but more importantly I stopped all the automatic updates from my carrier and apps. I observed with my previous android devices that once a new phone came out all the sudden my phone became slow as molasses . I'm under the opinion with nothing to back it up with, other than my observations is that the carrier (atleast ATT) updates the phone and purposely degrades performances with newer apps and updates to get you to buy a new one. I don't think this is possible on the iphones because I don't believe that the carrier is allowed to bastardize it like android but I could be wrong? However that has been my observation and the one advantage I see for ios.

bitmapbrother 10y ago

>After letting Samsung and others take the lead in large screen smartphones (5.5” or larger phablets), Apple Finally introduced its own large iPhone 6 Plus in September 2014. What an ignorant comment. Samsung pioneered the large screen smartphone. They took the risk when everyone was mocking the size of their phones as if they were jokes. Once the market proved them correct everyone else rushed in - including Apple. To belittle this accomplishment speaks to this person's bias towards Apple. Apple never let Samsung take the lead in large screen smartphones - instead they did what they usually do - wait for another player to create the market and then move in on it.

skygazer 10y ago
I think your description of what happened is exactly what is meant by "letting Samsung and others take the lead" -- Apple let itself be surpassed, in that it could have done otherwise, but didn't.

surds 10y ago

After a series of Android devices, my first iPhone was the 6 Plus. The main reasons for me switching over were: 1. Ridiculously reliable battery. (People who have used both platforms will mostly agree, I think.) 2. 6 Plus was the first iPhone that did not seem tiny to me. 3. I really wanted to use it myself for a while and form my own opinions. A year and a half of use later, my thoughts: 1. Totally awesome battery experience. 2. It's good, stable, reliable but it gets so... boring. My next phone, whenever it is, is probably going to be the largest Nexus device available. On a side note, it is so great to read a series of comments about iOS and Android that does not degenerate into a trolling competition.

cageface 10y ago
FWIW battery life on my Nexus 6p has been very good and also consistent. Nexus is definitely the way to go if you want an Android phone.