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Have you considered using a TrueSkill-alike with extensions for scores/teams, such as PoissonOD? http://research.microsoft.com/pubs/193839/sbsl_ecml2012.pdf ht
by tfgg 10y ago
Have you considered using a TrueSkill-alike with extensions for scores/teams, such as PoissonOD?
http://research.microsoft.com/pubs/193839/sbsl_ecml2012.pdf http://research.microsoft.com/pubs/193839/sbsl_ecml2012.pdf
A few years ago I had a similar idea for trying to build team models, so you can make a better guess at the performance of national teams, since they don't play very often, or for league teams due to transfers at the start/during the season, but hadn't got as far as you :)
- lum 10y agoWe did some preliminary experiments in this direction. Basically, we tried to do a regression on the score difference instead of using only binary outcomes. In our experiments it didn't improve the predictive accuracy - but there are many more things to try. It does feel a bit wasteful not to take score data into account. Nice that you had some similar ideas :-)