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1. The value of the Canadian dollar right now is much closer to the historical norm than it was when at parity for a relatively short period. 2. The unemployme

by DKnoll 10y ago

1. The value of the Canadian dollar right now is much closer to the historical norm than it was when at parity for a relatively short period. 2. The unemployment rate is marginally higher than in the USA. It's bad here, but it's bad over there too... the recession never ended. 3. That's true, and to be honest, I'm glad it's expensive. Expensive means there is something and/or someone there worth saving. I would argue the Halifax explosion was far more decimating, but cost significantly less to respond to, as everything and everyone was there one minute and gone the next. Canada is and was doing fine. As much as my heart breaks for Fort McMurray, in a country this large, most of us are a world away (Ontario myself) and it has had little tangible impact on us beyond a marginal increase in gas prices. No offense, but Trudeau is not 'our Obama.' Trudeau is the son of a former Prime Minister who is attempting to implement dramatic social reforms just as his father did. Despite the easy comparison of Democrats to Liberals and Conservatives to Republicans, when you actually look at their policies it's clear they do not reside at the same points on the political spectrum.

thinkloop 10y ago
The Obama comparison resonated with me - not in the specifics like policy, or how left/right they are - but in spirit, level of excitement and general sexiness. Obama after bush feels alot like Trudeau after Harper.
- deleted 10y ago
  [deleted]
- ramy_d 10y ago
  I understand, and at times share, the sentiment. But it's important for us not to confuse policy and enthusiasm.
adventured 10y ago
> The unemployment rate is marginally higher than in the USA. It's bad here, but it's bad over there too... the recession never ended. That's blatantly incorrect. - The US unemployment rate is 9.7% on the U6. The Canadian equivalent would be closer to 13%-15% [1] (the Canadian R8 is not the equivalent of the U6). That's not a marginal difference, it's a significant difference. The US U6 rate peaked at near 18%, six years ago. A 50% reduction is a very obvious signal that the recession ended a long time ago. The U6 rate before the recession in 2006 was 9%. If the recession had never ended, the U6 rate would still be extremely elevated. - The US has gained a massive number of full-time jobs since the recession. That metric is at a record high. [2a] [2b] - Total US employment is six million higher than the peak before the recession. - US manufacturing output is at all-time highs and has climbed dramatically since the recession [3]. Total construction spending on manufacturing in the US is three to four times higher than it was in 2002-2006. None of that would be happening if the US were in recession. - Real hourly earnings have been expanding since 2012-2013 [4]. While simultaneously inflation has been tame by most measures. Hourly earnings are about 7% higher than 2006. If the recession hadn't ended, that would not be the case. - Government tax revenue, which is highly dependent on income taxes, is at record highs. - The labor force participation rate has been stable for three years, despite millions of boomers retiring. - In terms of income vs debt, US households have dramatically de-leveraged from the debt highs leading up to the great recession, and are in far better shape than Canadian households [5a] [5b]. - US household median disposable incomes are among the highest on earth. That metric obviously would not be doing so well if the US had spent the last ten years in a recession. US GDP per capita is ranked #5 out of all nations, 25% higher than Canada - an excellent sign of high economic productivity. [6] So US economic productivity is extremely high, US unemployment has fallen by 50% back to a historically healthy level, full-time employment is at record highs, wage growth has been outpacing inflation for years, household income to debt ratios have improved dramatically, household balance sheets have never been higher, manufacturing output is at record highs. Uh, so what's the problem exactly? [1] http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/canadas-unemployment-numbers-understate-labour-underutilization/article15808961/ http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/ec... [2a] http://i.imgur.com/ERDhQLZ.jpg http://i.imgur.com/ERDhQLZ.jpg [2b] http://i.imgur.com/zCC6ytm.png http://i.imgur.com/zCC6ytm.png [3] https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/OUTMS https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/OUTMS [4] http://i.imgur.com/5Q7c27x.jpg http://i.imgur.com/5Q7c27x.jpg [5a] http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canadians-debt-burden-still-growing-hits-record-in-fourth-quarter/article29172712/ http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/ca... [5b] http://business.financialpost.com/investing/outlook-2016/canadians-household-debt-highest-in-g7-with-crunch-on-brink-of-historic-levels-pbo-warns http://business.financialpost.com/investing/outlook-2016/can... [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28no...
- rapind 10y ago
  Not to mention Canadian household debt is setting records.
- DKnoll 10y ago
  The US measures unemployment differently, you're right. Which one is a more accurate measure however is up for debate. Given the higher US poverty rate, lesser social services and lower minimum wage, I don't think underemployment in Canada and underemployment in the USA carry the same weight. I should add current Canadian unemployment (as of March) is under 1% higher than the 2006 level as reported by StatsCan. I think you can attribute the high level of Canadian household debt to the insane cost of real estate in urban Canada. Real estate prices have inflated dramatically. You're right, I didn't use the word recession correctly. But I don't think anyone can reasonably argue Canada or the US are currently in boom time. US GDP per capita may be higher than Canadian GDP per capita, sure, but US external debt is 114% of your GDP, versus 92% of Canada's. I'm not an economist.

by DKnoll 10y ago

thinkloop 10y ago

The Obama comparison resonated with me - not in the specifics like policy, or how left/right they are - but in spirit, level of excitement and general sexiness. Obama after bush feels alot like Trudeau after Harper.

deleted 10y ago
[deleted]
ramy_d 10y ago
I understand, and at times share, the sentiment. But it's important for us not to confuse policy and enthusiasm.

adventured 10y ago

> The unemployment rate is marginally higher than in the USA. It's bad here, but it's bad over there too... the recession never ended. That's blatantly incorrect. - The US unemployment rate is 9.7% on the U6. The Canadian equivalent would be closer to 13%-15% [1] (the Canadian R8 is not the equivalent of the U6). That's not a marginal difference, it's a significant difference. The US U6 rate peaked at near 18%, six years ago. A 50% reduction is a very obvious signal that the recession ended a long time ago. The U6 rate before the recession in 2006 was 9%. If the recession had never ended, the U6 rate would still be extremely elevated. - The US has gained a massive number of full-time jobs since the recession. That metric is at a record high. [2a] [2b] - Total US employment is six million higher than the peak before the recession. - US manufacturing output is at all-time highs and has climbed dramatically since the recession [3]. Total construction spending on manufacturing in the US is three to four times higher than it was in 2002-2006. None of that would be happening if the US were in recession. - Real hourly earnings have been expanding since 2012-2013 [4]. While simultaneously inflation has been tame by most measures. Hourly earnings are about 7% higher than 2006. If the recession hadn't ended, that would not be the case. - Government tax revenue, which is highly dependent on income taxes, is at record highs. - The labor force participation rate has been stable for three years, despite millions of boomers retiring. - In terms of income vs debt, US households have dramatically de-leveraged from the debt highs leading up to the great recession, and are in far better shape than Canadian households [5a] [5b]. - US household median disposable incomes are among the highest on earth. That metric obviously would not be doing so well if the US had spent the last ten years in a recession. US GDP per capita is ranked #5 out of all nations, 25% higher than Canada - an excellent sign of high economic productivity. [6] So US economic productivity is extremely high, US unemployment has fallen by 50% back to a historically healthy level, full-time employment is at record highs, wage growth has been outpacing inflation for years, household income to debt ratios have improved dramatically, household balance sheets have never been higher, manufacturing output is at record highs. Uh, so what's the problem exactly? [1] http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/economy-lab/canadas-unemployment-numbers-understate-labour-underutilization/article15808961/ http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/ec... [2a] http://i.imgur.com/ERDhQLZ.jpg http://i.imgur.com/ERDhQLZ.jpg [2b] http://i.imgur.com/zCC6ytm.png http://i.imgur.com/zCC6ytm.png [3] https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/OUTMS https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/OUTMS [4] http://i.imgur.com/5Q7c27x.jpg http://i.imgur.com/5Q7c27x.jpg [5a] http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/canadians-debt-burden-still-growing-hits-record-in-fourth-quarter/article29172712/ http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/economy/ca... [5b] http://business.financialpost.com/investing/outlook-2016/canadians-household-debt-highest-in-g7-with-crunch-on-brink-of-historic-levels-pbo-warns http://business.financialpost.com/investing/outlook-2016/can... [6] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28nominal%29_per_capita https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_%28no...

rapind 10y ago
Not to mention Canadian household debt is setting records.
DKnoll 10y ago
The US measures unemployment differently, you're right. Which one is a more accurate measure however is up for debate. Given the higher US poverty rate, lesser social services and lower minimum wage, I don't think underemployment in Canada and underemployment in the USA carry the same weight. I should add current Canadian unemployment (as of March) is under 1% higher than the 2006 level as reported by StatsCan. I think you can attribute the high level of Canadian household debt to the insane cost of real estate in urban Canada. Real estate prices have inflated dramatically. You're right, I didn't use the word recession correctly. But I don't think anyone can reasonably argue Canada or the US are currently in boom time. US GDP per capita may be higher than Canadian GDP per capita, sure, but US external debt is 114% of your GDP, versus 92% of Canada's. I'm not an economist.