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Experts say Olympics must be moved or postponed because of Zika
- kaonashi 10y agoThat and the coup.
- belzebub 10y agoWon't someone think of the sponsors!?
- dredmorbius 10y agoI find it interesting that James Burke, in an interview some years after his Connections series, discussing how he'd continue the series, said of the jet airline that he'd explore its role as a vector of international disease transmission. https://archive.org/details/JamesBurkeReConnections_0 https://archive.org/details/JamesBurkeReConnections_0
- dave2000 10y agoDid he stay true to his word?
- dredmorbius 10y agoHe's not produced another TV series so far as I know. He has been pursuing his knowledge-web concept for the past couple of decades, though I also get the feeling his game's slipped a bit. The first Connections and The Day the Universe Changed are really his best work. Both remain quite relevant to this day. The Knowledge Web concept is ... interesting, but of itself I don't find it quite so fundamental or useful as the concepts of Connections & TDTUC. On the other hand, you remind me that sinks and unintended consequences seem to be particularly potent late-stage factors in technological revolutions.
- corybrown 10y agoCan anything really stop the worldwide spread at this point? Even without the olympics, it's already throughout Latin America, which sees plenty of travelers on aggregate
- wrsh07 10y agoYou wouldn't stop the worldwide spread -- just delay it. This was mentioned in the Harvard Public Health Review [1]. Time is important, here, because scientists are racing the spread of Zika to develop eg vaccines. [1] http://harvardpublichealthreview.org/off-the-podium-why-rios-2016-olympic-games-must-not-proceed/ http://harvardpublichealthreview.org/off-the-podium-why-rios...
- hrathi 10y agowth, are pregnant women competing in Olympics?
- abhi3 10y agoAnyone can get infected, travel back to their country and pass on the virus through mosquito bites.
- deleted 10y ago[deleted]
- labster 10y agoZika can also be transmitted by sex.
- sangnoir 10y agoNot true - Zika is spread by a specific mosquito species (Aedes aegypt) that is not found everywhere[1] 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aedes_aegypti#/media/File:Global_Aedes_aegypti_distribution_(e08347).png https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aedes_aegypti#/media/File:Glob...
- Fomite 10y agoIt's unknown how long a Zika infection puts one at risk for negative birth outcomes. There are a number of young women competing in the Olympics who would like to have children. Then there's the partners of male Olympic athletes (who might either visit to cheer on their partner or get it from sexual contact), tourists, etc.
- ars 10y agoZika also sometimes causes Guillain-Barré syndrome.
- abhi3 10y agoImagine athletes from poorer states take it back to their countries which don't have good healthcare infrastructure and it becomes an uncontrollable epidemic there. A very real possibility of Half a Million people taking the virus back to every city on the planet and all they are saying is we'll use mosquito repellents near the stadiums and hotels and everything will be fine. I understand that there's a lot of money and sunk cost at stake for Brazil and IOC but their adamance over this is dangerous.
- ck2 10y agoThe problem with the "news" covering this is they are going to do the same thing they do with hurricanes. They will hype it in such a way that a serious threat becomes a joke and ignored by those that see the topic being treated as clickbait.
- DanielStraight 10y agoYou know what... I downvoted you, but I think I misunderstood. Are you saying that Zika and hurricanes are not really a big deal but are made to seem so by the press... or that they are a big deal and the press poisons people against properly responding?
- gkya 10y agoI believe the second one is his point. But sometimes for some events the first part is correct too, not in this case though.
- ck2 10y agoThat the press poisons people by excessive and irresponsible overreaction. They are definitely dangers but instead of calm, logical, limited presentation of the problem, the press goes insane and turn people off to the issue.
- nomercy400 10y ago113 of the 149 experts are from the US and Canada. 3 are from South America. Dunno, but it seems that a large portion of the rest of the world's experts doesn't care or doesn't see it this way. Also, the Olympics are a billion dollar business. Billions of dollars VS faster spreading of Zika. Billions. They aren't going to postpone it.
- daveguy 10y agoIf it means it will be a 10s of millions of dollars business this year instead of a billion dollar business because of concern of travel to the olympic site then it might. Although most of the money isn't coming from visitors, but from television. I would definitely stand with athletes concerned with their personal health if they were to boycott. At least a few have expressed concern and intent to avoid this year's olympics.
- ChuckMcM 10y ago[engage cynic mode ...] And health care is a trillion dollar business, so don't cancel the Olympics, instead buy call options on the various pharma companies that might provide a vaccine soonest and invest in any lab that is working on a fast blood test for keeping the blood supply clean. [/engage] Random questions I don't see coming up in the news coverage, does anyone know how long Zika remains in the blood stream post infection? Are you immune once you've had it once? What are the risks to pregnant women a year after they have been infected?
- jacobolus 10y agoLast time I saw an expert address any of your questions was a couple months ago, and it sounded like nobody yet had answers. https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/49nssw/plos_science_wednesday_hi_reddit_were_albert_ko/ https://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/49nssw/plos_scienc...
- shkkmo 10y agoThe article says the risks extend beyond just pregnant women: "The virus has also been linked to neurological disorders in adults."
- cmurf 10y agoMaybe there should be an Olympic nation. Some country just gives up the land, their claim of sovereignty over it, hand it over the U.N. (certainly not the IOC) and wealth redistribute without all of this stupid waste. Billions of dollars spent with a moving olympics and all the infrastructure ends up not being used for pretty much anything ever again. It's one of the most idiotic things on the planet. I like the olympics, sorta, but how we make them work is immensely wasteful. The very possibility it would be canceled and the infrastructure never used for its intended purpose even once makes that all the more apparent.
- transfire 10y agoI call dibs on Winter Olympics in Antarctica!
- julienchastang 10y agoYes. And that nation should be Switzerland: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/01/opinion/01altekruse.html http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/01/opinion/01altekruse.html.
- wrsh07 10y agoYour proposal would never work: the Olympics need to be decentralized for it to feel "fair."
- CiPHPerCoder 10y agoOr instead of one plot of land, build a sufficiently large seafaring vessel and host it at sea?
- fennecfoxen 10y agoAccording to the Internets, which are never wrong, the largest ship ever was this one: http://maritime-connector.com/worlds-largest-ships/ http://maritime-connector.com/worlds-largest-ships/ How do you think this compares with a typical land-based Olympic venue? What other challenges make this idea absurd and ridiculous?
- SCAQTony 10y agoCDC: Zika Transmission Risks: Through mosquito bites, From mother to child, Through sexual contact, Through blood transfusion. "... Anyone who lives in or travels to an area where Zika virus is found and has not already been infected with Zika virus can get it from mosquito bites. Once a person has been infected, he or she is likely to be protected from future infections. ..." http://www.cdc.gov/zika/transmission/ http://www.cdc.gov/zika/transmission/
- transfire 10y agoWhat is the incubation period? Surely the window of contagion is fairly small -- a few weeks? Considering Zika is rarely ever deadly (has anyone died from it yet?), what is the point of a vaccine? Just give everyone the disease (excluding pregnant woman of course).
- jfoster 10y agoI don't think that will work well. Everyone (except pregnant women) => Virtually all mosquitoes => Pregnant women
- dave2000 10y agoThey say it's too hot in Qatar to hold the World Cup too, but you can't argue with money.
- heyheyhey 10y agoWell, they did move the World Cup to the Winter thus, causing the domestic leagues in Europe to lose plenty of money.
- sago 10y agoEvery day hundreds of thousands of people fly in and out of Brazil to and from all corners of the world. Rio Galeão alone handles 17m passengers per year, much more than the total number of Olympic tickets available (most of which are sold to Brazilians, and most of the attendees buy more than just one). Nobody I can find is giving credible numbers that show the olympics will constitute a significant increase to affected areas over the year as a whole (edit: as adevine points out, below, the article puts the increase at c 0.0025), nor that travel is currently only from a handful of places worldwide. If international travel to Rio is a public health problem, then focussing on the olympics is pure tokenism.
- sgnelson 10y agohttp://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2016/2/1/10887868/world-cup-zika-virus http://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2016/2/1/10887868/worl...
- cjbprime 10y agoI spent a few minutes on it and it looks like, if Zika did not exist, the Olympics would add 10% of extra total yearly tourism to Rio. Some complications: * tourism to Rio this year is presumably lower than the baseline I'm using because it is presently the site of a Zika outbreak. * the tourism into Rio for the Olympics is especially international, so it may be reasonable to be especially concerned about its effect on global transmission of the virus. I think the people advocating for canceling the Olympics understand that it's only 10% extra tourism, but still think that small percentage of extra tourism is a bad outcome.
- graeme 10y agoI posted the article. I think the second point is most worrisome. Most visitors to Rio are either: 1. From Latin America, where Zika already is, or 2. From US/Europe, where Zika can't go. The olmypics will bring a delegation from every country + tourists from more of those countries. So Zika can spread to other regions. And once it spreads anywhere in a large region it will likely spread everywhere.
- MicroBerto 10y agoAs a spectator and not a competitor, I'd be far more concerned about the crime in Rio. It's tough to know what's really going on with their crime (given our sensationalist media and my not living there)... but you couldn't pay me enough money to go to the 2016 Olympics.
- ars 10y ago> but you couldn't pay me enough money to go to the 2016 Olympics. Weelllll, with enough money you could hire body guards, or just not worry about how much is stolen from you :)
- MicroBerto 10y agoI know you're messing around, but that's a lot of unnecessary risk for a reward that I can just delay for four or eight years when the Olympics are in a reasonable country.
- DanGarcia595 10y agoRio can be a bad place. When I went to Rio for the world Cup, my taxi driver from the airport told me that at night we would not stop at red lights for fear of being robbed. The ticket he would get would be less money would be less than the money he made that night. That being said, I stayed on the boardwalk of copacabana Beach at a hotel and there was never a problem day or night. If you stay in the tourist sections, the post guards and the area is very safe
- nommm-nommm 10y agohttp://www.express.co.uk/travel/articles/632851/child-muggers-crime-rio-brazil-olympics-pictures http://www.express.co.uk/travel/articles/632851/child-mugger...
- tssva 10y agoThe concern isn't for the spectators or competitors but for the rest of the world as both return home and accelerate the spread of the Zika virus.
- daodedickinson 10y agoI have no problem with the Olympics as long as we realize that it is a party, a festival, a celebration. I don't expect my parties to turn a profit. If people can agree to it while understanding the cost, fine; but I am tired of demagogues telling democracies that everything they propose will "bend the cost curve down" and result in lower taxes, higher revenues, and cheaper everything.
- gyakovlev 10y agoPlague Inc. players know how Olympics helps to spread the disease.
- habosa 10y agoIt seems like there are a laundry list of reasons not to have the Olympics in Brazil this year: * Zika * President was impeached, rampant corruption farther down * Crime and social unrest arising from the massive amount of money spent on Olympics vs social programs * Reports of pollution making watersports unsafe But the Olympics will definitely happen there, of course. Too much money already spent or planned to be spent.
- perseusprime11 10y agoWithout downvoting, please remind me again why we need Olympics in this modern day and age?
- eprime 10y ago> in this modern day and age? Without addressing the Olympics question directly, that question has 2 common and somewhat overlooked fallacies: * That a current year has the most importance compared to previous years because of its sequence. If we consider how people have thought about their own current year we can see that they also have thought that their current year has the most importance. * That progress has happened and that progress always occurs and moves in an upwards direction. I suggest that looking at history can give insights into how progress does not inexorably increase and improve year upon year. Initially it may appear nihilistic or anti-progress, but I believe thinking this way gives humans more insight into maintaining fragile societies and to ensure that our worlds do get better, through hard work, and not through some automatic procedure that works via the passage of years. I hope this helps answer the question in a more helpful and better way.
- tn13 10y agoExperts say a lot of things but that does not mean we gotta listen to them. American public education system is run by Experts remember ?
- jlg23 10y agoI'd like to know how reliable the data on Rio is. Are there more Zika infections than in the poor north eastern part of Brazil or are (suspected) cases just much more like to be reported due to easier access to qualified medical care? Is distribution in Rio uniform or does it mostly concern very poor areas which are very unlikely to be visited by tourists anyway? NB: The dengue data they refer to[1] shows a sharp decline in infections from May on, at the end of the wet season (obviously inferring from 2015 data). [1] http://www.rio.rj.gov.br/dlstatic/10112/5880996/4153672/denguenotificadosexcetodescartadosMes2015_25_01_2016.htm http://www.rio.rj.gov.br/dlstatic/10112/5880996/4153672/deng...
- foota 10y agoI live in the Pacific Northwest, and for a brief moment I parsed this as the Olympic Mountains.
- the_watcher 10y agoToo much money is at stake (advertisers, networks, etc) for the Olympics to be postponed, but if they move it, I wonder if there is anywhere in the world that could be ready to host it at that time. London deconstructed much of their infrastructure, so they're out. Beijing perhaps? Honestly, Los Angeles could probably handle it by housing the athletes at UCLA and USC and expanding the geographic range of events down to San Diego and up towards Santa Barbara.
- jfoster 10y agoMoving it seems like a mammoth task. Think of all the flight & hotel bookings that would change. The disruption it would cause makes it near impossible that it will be changed now, I think. I don't mean to suggest that it wouldn't be worth cancelling or changing if the health risk is so big, just that (like with climate change), humans have a disorder when it comes to this sort of thing.
- the_watcher 10y agoOh, I'm not suggesting it would be easy. The logistics alone make it near impossible, as the hotels and airlines would need to be comped. I was speaking specifically about whether or not it would even be feasible to move it based solely on having a location that has the infrastructure to support it.
- throwaway_exer 10y agoI've been following zika since it hit the press. This is a very serious disease that will become endemic wherever the Egyptian mosquito is found, including the USA. No country is prepared to deal with it. So by very serious, think malaria. I'd rather deal with ebola than zika.
- williesleg 10y agoWe all knew that, Brazil has been way over budget and over schedule, heck - half of the buildings haven't even been built yet. So Zika was just the plan to cancel all that crap. Interesting.
- bernardom 10y agoInteresting: CDC chief says not to postpone: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36401150 http://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-36401150
- persona 10y agoIt's amazing that neither the article nor the 100+ comments take into account that the Olympics will occur in August, which is winter in Brazil. Truly Rio doesn't freeze but historical numbers of dengue infections for example are the lowest during that month. By a factor of 300 in some data. Of course 1 infection is one too much, but if weather comes in as it usually does, August won't see many mosquitoes attending the olympics.
- codecamper 10y agoPortugal has strong links to Brazil, as they both speak the same language. Looks like this is leading to a slow rise in Zika in portugal. http://www.reuters.com/article/health-zika-portugal-idUSKCN0V5256 http://www.reuters.com/article/health-zika-portugal-idUSKCN0... Great.... I'm in Portugal! Dammit.
- OrthoMetaPara 10y agoIf pregnant, don't go to Brazil. If not pregnant, don't conceive child while in Brazil. I don't really see the issue, here.