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Definitely. And being both sides of that table at some point, it is always possible to give an estimate. The difference is that the estimate should be a range
by buro9 10y ago
Definitely.
And being both sides of that table at some point, it is always possible to give an estimate.
The difference is that the estimate should be a range.
How tall is the Eiffel Tower? If you didn't know and gave an estimate you might say, 172m is quite high, maybe that's high enough to be the answer without over-shooting.
You could give a range as the answer: Between 100m and 500m tall. It's definitely more than 100m high, for why else would there be lifts, such a wide base, etc, etc... and it's definitely less than 500m, because it certainly doesn't rise half a KM into the sky.
That first estimate... wrong. Wildly wrong, but because it is a fixed and precise number it gives the illusion of accuracy and knowledge on my part where none was applied in coming to the number. As an estimate, the client will be upset.
That second estimate... well now I've Googled and the answer is 300m and so it turns out the estimate was correct.
That's all a client wants... the best and worst case, and when there is a huge variance between the two, what is the basis for that variance? How much of it comes back to the clients as requirements that could be made simpler? How much is the tech choice? The features?
Always give an estimate, just make it a range.
- basseq 10y agoThe only problem with ranges is anchoring, particularly with dollars and cents. If I tell you it will be $1-10M, you're going to anchor on $1M (and be pissed when I come in at $8M). (The reverse is true for, say, salaries. If you tell me you pay $100-$200k/yr for a job, I'm already thinking about how to spend that $200k.) So your ranges should be within your negotiating contingency (say, 20%).
- buro9 10y agoWhen I give ranges, I explain what each end of the range looks like. $1m - we're only doing x, y and z, within these basic constraints, the scope does not slip without renegotiation. $10m - you get m-through-z, we'll build in capacity for scope changes and discovery on the way We should be lowest quartile ($1m-$3m) of that range if we can agree through a discovery phase what is in scope and basic constraints/assumptions.
- copperx 10y agoGiving the top and middle estimates would be an easy solution. Never give out the lower estimate.