4 ms·
Be careful thinking Apple will keep sellng iphones and ipads. Their expertise and their cash can probably be thrown into a lot of industries with disruptive suc
by kfk 10y ago
Be careful thinking Apple will keep sellng iphones and ipads. Their expertise and their cash can probably be thrown into a lot of industries with disruptive success (car industry, pharma, space exploration, etc.). Even the name, Apple, does not bind the company to any specific line of product. I think what the investors are betting here is the ability of Apple of coming up with something as big as the ipod-ipad saga in the coming years. I can see risk in this assumption, but I don't believe is 100% going to turn out badly, so far I'd distribute probabilities equally and do a 50/50 that Apple gives the investors 10x in the next 10 years.
- throwaway2048 10y agoYou truely beleive that a company with almost the largest market capitization of any company has a large chance of increasing it by 10x?
- rplst8 10y agoThis - and the fact that branching out of phones/tablets/computes into cars or space exploration would be a pretty big jump industry wise. Everything they've built to-date has been an extension of either desktop and portable computing or Internet/networking/web technology. The one exception to this is their Music/Book/Movie business, but from my understanding those not only pale in comparison to their "physical" device sales, they are only done out of necessity to supply said devices.
- colbyh 10y agoin 1993 Exxon was the world's most valuable company with a market cap of roughly $80B. they didn't reappear as the most valuable company again until 2007 with a valuation of roughly $500B. yeah, big swings are still possible even in very established markets.
- aurelianito 10y agoHow do these numbers look closer if you correct for inflation. $80B in 1993 are equivalent to $114.79B in 2007.
- kfk 10y agoThe way I see it, Apple either grows exponentially or linearly and I give those outcomes a 50/50. By the way, a company doesn't need to do 10x the stock price to deliver 10x to investors. They can pay dividends. They can sell divisions. We have been enjoying exponential growth for a while now: https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/long-term-real-growth-of-gdp-in-the-us-1871-2009-visualizing-economics-645x447.png https://ourworldindata.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/long-t...
- roadnottaken 10y agoUm, explain to me how their expertise could be thrown into pharma?
- lern_too_spel 10y agoIt can't. Their expertise is in consumer goods and marketing in particular. They don't have the data expertise, medical expertise, or really any relevant experience for pharma.
- evan_ 10y agoMaybe not drugs but I wouldn't bet against them on medical devices.