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When self-driving cars become a reality over the next 10 years it's probably going to reduce the number of cars sold massively. Many or most adults in the deve

by sien 10y ago

When self-driving cars become a reality over the next 10 years it's probably going to reduce the number of cars sold massively. Many or most adults in the developed world currently own a car. If you can share them even between, say 3 people the number of cars required will plummet. There are credible predictions around as well that even say up to 10 people might be able to share a car. There is already over capacity in car production globally. Self-driving cars are likely to drive that even further. It's not a good market for a company that isn't in the game to be going in to. Google are different because they seem to be selling the technology to enable other manufacturers to sell self-driving cars.

mdorazio 10y ago
Not sure why you got downvoted. While I think the number of cars sold will decrease, I don't think it will be by very much. The biggest problem is that most people go to work and go home at roughly the same times during the day, so realistically you can't have more than maybe 2-3 people sharing a car if they're both employed. Yes, some fraction of a city's residents work non-standard hours, but the majority are on something close to a 9-5 schedule. Also keep in mind that while the number of cars sold might go down, it's also fairly likely that the margin on each car will go up, and the total number of miles driven will go up as well. Basically when you take the unwanted part of driving out of the equation (sitting in traffic wasting time) and don't need driver attention anymore, you can start adding all kinds of value-add features to vehicles like giant in-vehicle displays or massage chairs. And if you can do whatever you want while on the road, longer commutes aren't so bad, so it's easy to put more miles on a car in a year, which means more replacement parts, service visits, etc. over time. The market will no doubt change significantly, but existing OEMs are by no means going to be excluded entirely.
frgewut 10y ago
Totally agree with you. Also some of the freight traffic will be shifted to nights; self-driving cars will allow door-to-door service, so number of parking spaces will be reduced; also when no driver is needed you get that extra seat.
- agumonkey 10y ago
  I'm watching this closely too. Many articles showed how cities shifted organization around cars. I wonder how it will reverse that trend. Weird times.
sauwan 10y ago
I disagree. While the number of cars may plummet initially, when you share cars between multiple people, the mileage on those cars is going to increase dramatically. Shared cars may end up hitting 300,000 miles in 5 years rather than 15. Unless self driving cars dramatically increase the lifespan of the average car, things will balance out in a few years.
- pbhjpbhj 10y ago
  Do first owners sell their cars because they become unusable or because they become unfashionable or some other reason? In two car households does the second car primarily get purchased for use when the first car is sitting idle but just in the wrong location? Might there be a change in ownership as a sort of "buy-to-let" system comes in where owners wouldn't be able to buy an autonomous vehicle but afford it as they send the vehicle out to work doing deliveries/taxiing people during the times they don't need it? It seems quite hard to predict how autonomous vehicles will change things; a lot of it will depend on regulations on how they're manned - will a driver with a license still be required at all times? Will there be new licenses? Will autonomous vehicles have extra restrictions on their speed or which roads they use? Will there be protectionist laws to prevent them picking up and taxiing people? The surrounding legislation will probably be as important to the way the evolution of car use happens.
pacala 10y ago
People's appetite for suburban environments is insatiable. Given the chance to work or relax 1 hour on a laptop before getting to the office and after getting to the office will exacerbate sprawl. Car sharing is an interesting possibility, but it may turn out people will live at the farthest distance they can possibly live [due to costs], thus will be unable to afford even a five minute detour that is critical for enabling sharing. I expect real estate to explode, car production to increase, possibly significantly, and we'll spend a whole lot more time in our private mobile offices.

by sien 10y ago

mdorazio 10y ago

Not sure why you got downvoted. While I think the number of cars sold will decrease, I don't think it will be by very much. The biggest problem is that most people go to work and go home at roughly the same times during the day, so realistically you can't have more than maybe 2-3 people sharing a car if they're both employed. Yes, some fraction of a city's residents work non-standard hours, but the majority are on something close to a 9-5 schedule. Also keep in mind that while the number of cars sold might go down, it's also fairly likely that the margin on each car will go up, and the total number of miles driven will go up as well. Basically when you take the unwanted part of driving out of the equation (sitting in traffic wasting time) and don't need driver attention anymore, you can start adding all kinds of value-add features to vehicles like giant in-vehicle displays or massage chairs. And if you can do whatever you want while on the road, longer commutes aren't so bad, so it's easy to put more miles on a car in a year, which means more replacement parts, service visits, etc. over time. The market will no doubt change significantly, but existing OEMs are by no means going to be excluded entirely.

frgewut 10y ago

Totally agree with you. Also some of the freight traffic will be shifted to nights; self-driving cars will allow door-to-door service, so number of parking spaces will be reduced; also when no driver is needed you get that extra seat.

agumonkey 10y ago
I'm watching this closely too. Many articles showed how cities shifted organization around cars. I wonder how it will reverse that trend. Weird times.

sauwan 10y ago

I disagree. While the number of cars may plummet initially, when you share cars between multiple people, the mileage on those cars is going to increase dramatically. Shared cars may end up hitting 300,000 miles in 5 years rather than 15. Unless self driving cars dramatically increase the lifespan of the average car, things will balance out in a few years.

pbhjpbhj 10y ago
Do first owners sell their cars because they become unusable or because they become unfashionable or some other reason? In two car households does the second car primarily get purchased for use when the first car is sitting idle but just in the wrong location? Might there be a change in ownership as a sort of "buy-to-let" system comes in where owners wouldn't be able to buy an autonomous vehicle but afford it as they send the vehicle out to work doing deliveries/taxiing people during the times they don't need it? It seems quite hard to predict how autonomous vehicles will change things; a lot of it will depend on regulations on how they're manned - will a driver with a license still be required at all times? Will there be new licenses? Will autonomous vehicles have extra restrictions on their speed or which roads they use? Will there be protectionist laws to prevent them picking up and taxiing people? The surrounding legislation will probably be as important to the way the evolution of car use happens.

pacala 10y ago

People's appetite for suburban environments is insatiable. Given the chance to work or relax 1 hour on a laptop before getting to the office and after getting to the office will exacerbate sprawl. Car sharing is an interesting possibility, but it may turn out people will live at the farthest distance they can possibly live [due to costs], thus will be unable to afford even a five minute detour that is critical for enabling sharing. I expect real estate to explode, car production to increase, possibly significantly, and we'll spend a whole lot more time in our private mobile offices.