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Let's see how it will play out once Facebook reaches MySpace-style decline and shareholders would need to get as much money out of Facebook as they still will b

by bitL 11y ago

Let's see how it will play out once Facebook reaches MySpace-style decline and shareholders would need to get as much money out of Facebook as they still will be able to.

bnb 11y ago
Facebook is different than MySpace. Entire families, including grandparents, weren't on MySpace. Facebook has gotten very close to achieving their goal of "Becoming the Internet" for many 40 .
carb 11y ago
I see this criticism come up a lot, but we have to face the fact that Facebook is not going to decline like MySpace. Facebook continues to show significant active user growth still, even though they're much larger than MySpace ever was. And they're in a much more firm place financially than MySpace ever was. They're not comparable past their basic functionality of "users have profiles and a set of friends".
- azemPC 11y ago
  Not too mention facebook completely changes in design and is constantly evolving its look. If FB still looked like how it did in it's early inception I doubt it would be as popular. Perhaps there is some study to be done where social sites/apps become obsolete if they fail to adapt their UI/UX over the years. I mean look at sites like Fark and SA compared to what is popular nowadays like Snapchat or Reddit.
  - adevine 11y ago
    Reddit? I see lots of comments about how people are amazed Reddit has remained (or, really, grown) as popular as it is while still having a very "low rent" UI. I'd actually argue hallelujah that reddit hasn't significantly altered their UI. It may not be pretty, but it doesn't take that long to get used to its quirks, and when you do it is extremely fast and easy to navigate and find meaningful content. I contrast this to slashdot, who proceeded to make their UI WORSE with every update (more "modern" styling and response, but they made it totally broke the usability of their commenting system).
    - freehunter 11y ago
      I find the problem with Slashdot the fact that they've updated their styling to be in line with what was popular in 2006, with a commenting system from 1995. I can't read their comments any better than I can read mailing lists; they're both horrible, horrible ways of displaying conversations. In my opinion, their commenting system has been broken since I started reading the site back when CmdrTaco was still unmarried.
      - cgriswald 11y ago
        The UI kept getting worse, but I stuck through it. It was the culture that eventually drove me away from /.
        bitL 11y ago
        I left Slashdot because of the rampant censorship; if you ever posted something going against "prevailing wisdom" even if completely true, you might have found yourself unable to access the home page for a day and your submission ended up deleted. On completely factual, verifiable things, not politics/gender/whatever controversy.
    - lqdc13 11y ago
      Or stumbleupon. That site/pligin failed after UI changes.
austinl 11y ago
Even if Facebook itself saw a decline, the business could still be quite successful from their properties alone. Instagram, Oculus, WhatsApp – all extremely valuable, not to mention other products like Messenger.
kristianc 11y ago
MySpace's core business was crappy irrelevant display ads laid out over a crappy CMS, with what we would today call a very small MAU base. MySpace at its peak was around a third of the size Twitter is today in terms of MAUs. Facebook has algorithmic targeting of ads second to none on the planet (most of which happens entirely outside the purview of ad blockers) and pretty unrivaled view of what customers are doing across devices. On top of which they have several other businesses that could one day grow more profitable than FB itself. We can talk about whether Facebook's model is sustainable, whether demand for behavioral targeting ads will hold up, or if the likes of Instagram and Oculus can ever turn really profitable - but a MySpace style collapse is more or less out of the question.
zghst 11y ago
Facebook's experience and technology are miles ahead of MySpace. They are a key influencer of the tech industry and it's one of the top places many bright minds head to. There is no way FB will ever end up like MySpace, maybe a different death awaits, but MySpace died because it was a shitty product, bad UX, hacked together, and a very negative connotations attached to the site's community
- bitL 11y ago
  They were amongst top places to go before IPO, not so much nowadays (similar to Google). They are already panicking that people are sharing less and less personal information and rather posting "cat pictures". If they don't build other profitable businesses, they are one bad "redesign" away from the fate of Digg if a more reasonable competitor emerges from a new generation of enthusiastic people (which I believe it will - not everyone's goal is instant cash like in the case of Instagram, some people want to be "kings"). I don't want to give Facebook ideas, but I can envision a better social network with a more direct, end user-wanted and less obtrusive commerce opportunities for all kinds of businesses without sticking ads into people's faces or selling their private information.
adventured 11y ago
That's a fantasy scenario, wishful thinking. Facebook won, they locked up the market. The match is over, there will be no meaningful direct challenger in the next 10 or 15 years to what Facebook does at its core. Facebook is Google, MySpace is AltaVista.
- bitL 11y ago
  SUN was once king as well...
  - adventured 11y ago
    Sun never had a billion daily user network effect protecting its kingdom. Sun never generated the kind of net income that Facebook already is after just a decade. Sun never had the pile of cash that Facebook has. In fact, Sun hardly had any barriers protecting its kingdom, which is why it imploded so quickly after its peak. In 1999 during the dotcom craze that bolstered Sun, they were generating about $300 million per quarter in profit. Inflation adjusted, Facebook is already four times larger, and they're growing extremely fast. Sun was more like DEC. They never had anything in common with Facebook's business position today.
    - bitL 11y ago
      At their heyday they were THE tech company (mind you, they were considering buying both Apple and Oracle at the same time).
morgante 11y ago
I predict that Mark Zuckerberg losing control would be exactly what would precipitate a MySpace-style decline.

by bitL 11y ago

Let's see how it will play out once Facebook reaches MySpace-style decline and shareholders would need to get as much money out of Facebook as they still will be able to.

bnb 11y ago

Facebook is different than MySpace. Entire families, including grandparents, weren't on MySpace. Facebook has gotten very close to achieving their goal of "Becoming the Internet" for many 40 .

carb 11y ago

I see this criticism come up a lot, but we have to face the fact that Facebook is not going to decline like MySpace. Facebook continues to show significant active user growth still, even though they're much larger than MySpace ever was. And they're in a much more firm place financially than MySpace ever was. They're not comparable past their basic functionality of "users have profiles and a set of friends".

azemPC 11y ago
Not too mention facebook completely changes in design and is constantly evolving its look. If FB still looked like how it did in it's early inception I doubt it would be as popular. Perhaps there is some study to be done where social sites/apps become obsolete if they fail to adapt their UI/UX over the years. I mean look at sites like Fark and SA compared to what is popular nowadays like Snapchat or Reddit.
- adevine 11y ago
  Reddit? I see lots of comments about how people are amazed Reddit has remained (or, really, grown) as popular as it is while still having a very "low rent" UI. I'd actually argue hallelujah that reddit hasn't significantly altered their UI. It may not be pretty, but it doesn't take that long to get used to its quirks, and when you do it is extremely fast and easy to navigate and find meaningful content. I contrast this to slashdot, who proceeded to make their UI WORSE with every update (more "modern" styling and response, but they made it totally broke the usability of their commenting system).
  - freehunter 11y ago
    I find the problem with Slashdot the fact that they've updated their styling to be in line with what was popular in 2006, with a commenting system from 1995. I can't read their comments any better than I can read mailing lists; they're both horrible, horrible ways of displaying conversations. In my opinion, their commenting system has been broken since I started reading the site back when CmdrTaco was still unmarried.
    - cgriswald 11y ago
      The UI kept getting worse, but I stuck through it. It was the culture that eventually drove me away from /.
      - bitL 11y ago
        I left Slashdot because of the rampant censorship; if you ever posted something going against "prevailing wisdom" even if completely true, you might have found yourself unable to access the home page for a day and your submission ended up deleted. On completely factual, verifiable things, not politics/gender/whatever controversy.
  - lqdc13 11y ago
    Or stumbleupon. That site/pligin failed after UI changes.

austinl 11y ago

Even if Facebook itself saw a decline, the business could still be quite successful from their properties alone. Instagram, Oculus, WhatsApp – all extremely valuable, not to mention other products like Messenger.

kristianc 11y ago

MySpace's core business was crappy irrelevant display ads laid out over a crappy CMS, with what we would today call a very small MAU base. MySpace at its peak was around a third of the size Twitter is today in terms of MAUs. Facebook has algorithmic targeting of ads second to none on the planet (most of which happens entirely outside the purview of ad blockers) and pretty unrivaled view of what customers are doing across devices. On top of which they have several other businesses that could one day grow more profitable than FB itself. We can talk about whether Facebook's model is sustainable, whether demand for behavioral targeting ads will hold up, or if the likes of Instagram and Oculus can ever turn really profitable - but a MySpace style collapse is more or less out of the question.

zghst 11y ago

Facebook's experience and technology are miles ahead of MySpace. They are a key influencer of the tech industry and it's one of the top places many bright minds head to. There is no way FB will ever end up like MySpace, maybe a different death awaits, but MySpace died because it was a shitty product, bad UX, hacked together, and a very negative connotations attached to the site's community

bitL 11y ago
They were amongst top places to go before IPO, not so much nowadays (similar to Google). They are already panicking that people are sharing less and less personal information and rather posting "cat pictures". If they don't build other profitable businesses, they are one bad "redesign" away from the fate of Digg if a more reasonable competitor emerges from a new generation of enthusiastic people (which I believe it will - not everyone's goal is instant cash like in the case of Instagram, some people want to be "kings"). I don't want to give Facebook ideas, but I can envision a better social network with a more direct, end user-wanted and less obtrusive commerce opportunities for all kinds of businesses without sticking ads into people's faces or selling their private information.

adventured 11y ago

That's a fantasy scenario, wishful thinking. Facebook won, they locked up the market. The match is over, there will be no meaningful direct challenger in the next 10 or 15 years to what Facebook does at its core. Facebook is Google, MySpace is AltaVista.

bitL 11y ago
SUN was once king as well...
- adventured 11y ago
  Sun never had a billion daily user network effect protecting its kingdom. Sun never generated the kind of net income that Facebook already is after just a decade. Sun never had the pile of cash that Facebook has. In fact, Sun hardly had any barriers protecting its kingdom, which is why it imploded so quickly after its peak. In 1999 during the dotcom craze that bolstered Sun, they were generating about $300 million per quarter in profit. Inflation adjusted, Facebook is already four times larger, and they're growing extremely fast. Sun was more like DEC. They never had anything in common with Facebook's business position today.
  - bitL 11y ago
    At their heyday they were THE tech company (mind you, they were considering buying both Apple and Oracle at the same time).

morgante 11y ago

I predict that Mark Zuckerberg losing control would be exactly what would precipitate a MySpace-style decline.