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Leicester City: Dirty Dozen or Harvard Case Study?

82 points by oli5679 11y ago

takno 11y ago
If it was a science experiment bottom-placed villa were certainly able to provide the control group, appointing a board largely at random and then letting them ignore the manager and pick players on the basis of, well nobody's sure, but they might have liked the names. It seems like the application of statistics works!
toyg 11y ago
"Four big clubs -- Manchester United, Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal -- have won all the titles in the past 20 years", but they "all had appalling seasons: Chelsea, [...] Manchester United [...] and Liverpool, the other big club, is seventh." Er, so Man City and Arsenal are not "big clubs", apparently. Nice "submarine" insult there. EDIT: another gem: "All teams have always counterattacked, but few have based their game so completely around it." That's utter drivel. Go read up on Italian teams of the 60s, which were pretty successful at doing exactly that. With all due respect to Claudio Ranieri, he's not really close to the genius of Nereo Rocco or Helenio Herrera. The innovation of Leicester City is that they used statistics to identify players who could fit this style better than the average, and they recruited a manager who knows how to manage this style of play better than the average. Whether this combination was an accident or not, I think it's still open for debate -- they had a very successful run of games with the previous manager as well.
- radicalbyte 11y ago
  No, he's saying that neither Arsenal or Man City are having appalling seasons. They're both doing pretty well. The funny thing is that Spurs are also having a fantastic season, if it wasn't for Leicester this article could have been written by a Spurs fan about their amazing rise up the league.
  - ed_blackburn 11y ago
    Who are incidentally top of the league by most metric other than the one that matters most.
  - ZenoArrow 11y ago
    > "No, he's saying that neither Arsenal or Man City are having appalling seasons. They're both doing pretty well." As an Arsenal fan, I couldn't disagree with you more. Arsenal have had an awful second half to the season, if they hadn't had a strong start they'd be mid table: http://metro.co.uk/2016/04/14/revealed-arsenals-terrible-league-form-since-christmas-5815262/ http://metro.co.uk/2016/04/14/revealed-arsenals-terrible-lea... Many Arsenal fans are somewhat livid with how this season has played out, with the majority of the anger being directed at the manager and the board.
    - macca321 11y ago
      and Theo.
      - ZenoArrow 11y ago
        There have been a couple of players who have got some stick, but it's nothing compared to Wenger and Kroenke. Why Wenger seems reluctant to play on form players and is reluctant/unwilling to buy another first class centre back and striker is beyond me.
        blowski 11y ago
        Blimey. A full on football debate on HN.
    - ameen 11y ago
      As a Man City fan, I was sure you guys would finally win it. It's as if our managers don't really want to win the PL. Pellegrini and Wenger's stubbornness is an important reason for Leicester and Spurs to lead the table.
- blowski 11y ago
  I'm not sure what you mean. He's saying there are 5 big clubs. 4 of them (Man Utd, Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal) have won all the titles in the last 20 years, but all 5 (including "the other big club" Liverpool) had appalling seasons. I don't think he was insulting anyone.
- tomlong 11y ago
  Don't know why you're getting modded down here. Especially re: counterattacking - Ranieri is an Italian born in 1951! He was brought up watching precisely that kind of counter attacking football, it's in blood. Almost everyone at Leicester I've heard talk about their success attributes it in some part to Nigel Pearson as well.
- ameen 11y ago
  As a Man City fan, it's somehow acceptable that we're never considered a big club. We've finished top 3 in the last 5 years, won multiple domestic titles and on track for a 6th yet you'd have English media dubbing our historic CL tie against PSG, El Cashico. The amount of pundits (former Liverpool, United players) in the media is indeed an important reason for that narrative.
dandermotj 11y ago
This article's attempt to contribute Leicester's success this season to "statistics" is just painful. As if every other team in the Premier League and three tiers down don't use extensive analysis in every aspect of selection, performance and scouting. Ranieri's style isn't bizarre or unseen-before. This isn't Moneyball.
- toyg 11y ago
  Actually, you'd be surprised how many teams "three tiers down" still work in very old-fashioned ways. One reason is budget, which falls dramatically from the Championship down; another is that the Premier League is simply at the forefront of scientific development in football the world over. Source: I have a brother working in the space.
  - blowski 11y ago
    I wonder how much of it is clubs prioritising Champions League success over winning the Premier League.
    - tomlong 11y ago
      I think for many reasons they prioritising qualifying for the group stages... Financially for the club but also this dramatically affects their ability to ability to attract players from the very top tier. Of course, Leicester have just shown you can assemble a team good enough to win the league (You're not getting 5/1 now, nevermind 5000/1) for next to nothing. I hope they've all got incredible win the league bonuses in their contracts anyway.
- kristianc 11y ago
  Perhaps might be worth asking Aston Villa fans how the 'Moneyball' philosophy has worked out for them.
  - tingol 11y ago
    But there's Brighton, Brentford and Midtjylland on the other side of the coin. It clearly brings some results but is obviously not enough on the highest level. Maybe that's why bringing in Ranieri was such a good call? He's been quite vocal about his non-involvement in the transfer policy and purely focusing on building a team with the players he has. The reason I'm hopeful for these kinds of strategies is that we might get more Oakland A's and Leicester Cities because seeing money dominate the sport over and over gets kinda boring.
alex95 11y ago
Author states that he is a Leicester fan, but insults the team by saying that other teams haven't been at their best. Other teams haven't been as great as they were last year, but isn't that because of Leicesters success?
colinramsay 11y ago
Luck probably has played a role, but you'd expect teams like Spurs (perhaps), Man City (definitely), and Arsenal (who really should have done better having been the only team to beat Leicester twice this season) to be winning the league this year given the poor performances of Chelsea and Man U. The article doesn't mention that Jamie Vardy is the third-highest scorer in the league, which combined with brilliant individual performances from Mahrez (just awarded the PFA award for player of the season), Kante, Drinkwater, Huth, Morgan and more, has seen some superstar performances that have made a real difference against teams that would have been seen as superior last season. I'd suggest that Ranieri's success as manager has been as much to do with man-management as tactics. He was very careful to get the team focused on staying up, on getting 40 points to survive. It was only in the past few days that he told his squad to go for broke and push for the title. They responded by beating Swansea 4-0, despite being without their top scorer. The Leicester tale is magical, and incredibly unlikely, but I would challenge anyone who said that they don't deserve it.
- Ntrails 11y ago
  I don't follow football, but I'd love to see an analysis of the impact non league games have in terms of time played, injury rate etc. I would assume that clubs are doing a rational analysis of the cost/benefit from the extra games anyway, but yeah. Interesting to see it.
  - colinramsay 11y ago
    This actually raises another great point, which is that Leicester have played fewer games than the teams around them due to not being involved in either the Europa League or the Champions League. They also dumped out of the FA Cup pretty early. Next season's going to be a lot more taxing for them in terms of games played.
  - celticninja 11y ago
    You would also need to consider that the top teams tend to have larger squads, so they can rest players without impinging upon their overall quality.
kristianc 11y ago
The alternative view is that we're witnessing a bit of a changing of the guard here. Perhaps one of the biggest moments of the season was Chelsea's pursuit of John Stones from Everton coming to nothing. In another year, he'd have gone, but this year Everton could afford to hang onto their asset. There's now more scope for teams like Leicester to assemble squads of above-average players and hold onto them. They haven't fallen into the trap of teams like Villa, who at one time have had really top players, only to lose them and have to replace them. Or Spurs in the past with losing players like Bale. Or Southampton, who I think had to basically rebuild an entire side three times? There's no longer a huge gap between the top four and the rest, and that gap is no longer reinforced every year by the same teams getting money for being in the Champions League. As such those sides weaknesses are now being more exposed. Man U could well be in long term decline post-Ferguson, Chelsea are an ageing side, Arsenal have long term structural weaknesses in their side which they appear unwilling or unable to address, and Man City in the Premier League often seem to be always a little less than the sum of their parts. We might look back and see the first 20 years of the Premier League as being an anomaly where only a few sides were capable of winning the league.
- jonwinstanley 11y ago
  The increased money means lower clubs can now afford to buy a better standard of players such as when Cabeye, Payet and Wijnaldum joined average sides in the Summer. But I'm not sure this applies to Leicester. They signed a few players but none that really stood out as surprising apart from Gökhan Inler, who has hardly played all season.
  - kristianc 11y ago
    At the same time, where previously there would have been no chance of Riyad Mahrez staying with Leicester with PSG, Arsenal, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Barcelona circling, now they have a real chance of hanging onto him I'd expect.
    - celticninja 11y ago
      If he stays with Leicester he can almost guarantee a first side place, not so much if he goes elsewhere.
curiousgal 11y ago
For those unfamiliar with he Premier League, Leicester City is a team that has one of the greatest underdog fairy tales in the history of any professional sport.
- SixSigma 11y ago
  Still some way to go to beat their neighbour's story though: Nottingham Forest won promotion to the top division at the end of the 1976–77 season after finishing third in the Second Division, but no-one could have predicted how successful Clough's team would be over the next three seasons. Nottingham Forest became one of the few teams (and the most recent team to date) to win the English First Division Championship a year after winning promotion from the English Second Division (1977–78 season). In 1978–79, Forest went on to win the European Cup by beating Malmö 1–0 in Munich's Olympiastadion and retained the trophy in 1979–80, beating Hamburg 1–0 in Madrid They also won the European Super Cup and two League Cups.
  - jaimebuelta 11y ago
    Only team to have more European Cups than national top league titles!
    - SixSigma 11y ago
      Here's me with my parents and a bit of silver in 1979 https://i.sli.mg/d09Ktt.jpg https://i.sli.mg/d09Ktt.jpg My parents ran a supporters club out of their pub. Would you believe the club dropped it off and came back for it the next day !
gavinflud 11y ago
I think their scouting team has definitely played a huge part, bringing in relative unknowns like Vardy, Mahrez and Kante. Most teams in the premier league track all sorts of statistics nowadays though, so I don't think that has set Leicester apart from the others. Companies like Opta make a fortune by providing some of this data. Overall, I think they've recruited well, been managed well and have all played to a level most people didn't think was in them. All of that combined with the other top teams all having horrific seasons means the stars have aligned for Leicester. It would be a tragedy if they didn't go ahead and take the title now.
- ameen 11y ago
  The problem for top teams is that they look for the finished article, not players getting there. So scouts from Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City wouldn't have recommended the likes of Mahrez or Vardy since they didn't have an exceptional season, also only top leagues are looked at. So a Ligue 2 player and a Championship player aren't ever in their sights. Leicester seeking out gems from unexplored areas is what gave them these bargain signings. They wouldn't have been able to sign these players if they had to go toe to toe with big clubs.
helipad 11y ago
Leicester's season is an anomaly, and therefore hard to take lessons from. No-one saw this coming. Not Leicester's players, who were bottom of the league just over a year ago. Not Leicester's manager, for whom 17th place would have been a success. Jamie Vardy scored 5 goals last season, the team had a below average defence, Ranieri's career to date had done nothing to predict this turnaround. They're style of play isn't innovative, though it was unfashionable relative to other styles. Note too that they almost flipped their style 180 part-way through the season, from gung ho football to extreme counter attacking. There was no grand plan. For every argument in Leicester's favour of how they've done it, you can find many similar examples across other leagues, without anything like the success. Leicester's season has been incredible and remarkable. We're going to just have to enjoy it, because we cannot analyse it.
- stinkytaco 11y ago
  I disagree. Starting with Ranieri, a manager who has not had the career he might have hoped, but with flashes of brilliance. These include rebuilding Chelsea into a squad that would compete for the next decade. Frank Lampard credits him with keeping the team in the premier league. He also somehow brought Juventus from Serie B to third place (coincidentally foreshadowing his run with Leicester). He certainly made some bad decisions as well, but it's unfair to say that 17th would have been a success for the manager. For the team, perhaps, yes. As to their style of play, that strikes me as their greatest success. Ranieri was not tempted by "modern" possession focused styles, but rather adapted his team to the pace of Vardy. The emergence of Mahrez and Drinkwater and the addition of the excellent N'golo Kante in the midfield also meant they were able to adapt when team's started to narrow to counter Vardy, using Vardy's pace to create space. In addition, when this adaptation happened Leicester organized the defense, keeping more clean sheets and using increased width to drive players like Fuchs forward. I don't think any of this is a "fluke", but rather working with the players you have to find what works best. There is no doubt they've had a great deal of luck, as well. The careers of both Fuchs and Huth were both considered failures of the promise they once offered, and certainly Vardy will not maintain his level for very long. They have also avoided injuries, not testing the depth of their squad, especially in the midfield. But you do not win the Premier League on luck alone. Leicester will compete for a Champions League spot next year if they can make three or four signings to address their depth and keep the core of Mahrez/Kante/Drinkwater together in the midfield.
petepete 11y ago
One aspect that many people forget when discussing Leicester's success is Steve Walsh. Under both Pearson and Ranieri, he has overseen the signings of real quality players very (and I mean very) reasonably. N'Golo Kante (£5.6m), Riyad Mahrez (£350k), Stefan Fuchs (free), Jamie Vardy (£1m), Esteban Cambiasso (who left before this season started, but was instrumental in them staying up last year, free), Robert Huth, Danny Drinkwater etc, for next to nothing. It's a keen eye for a good player, often from foreign leagues or lower divisions where high-quality statistics aren't so easily available, that makes the difference. All of those players listed are worth a fraction of what Manchester City paid for Raheem Sterling (~£50m), and he's barely made an impact.
- branchless 11y ago
  Pearson also signed a lot of very good players at Hull City. I was sad that he left us.
ramkarthikk 11y ago
Lot of factors have played a part in Leicester's rise to the top this season. They have played the same group of players for the most part, who have all been in the form of their lives, a really good manager (with good man-management skills), good scouting etc. One of the factors that most people don't mention but has played a vital part (also one that separates Leicester from Tottenham, who are 2nd right now) is that no PL team parks the bus or plays for a draw against Leicester. Many teams come into the games against big clubs (including Tottenham) expecting to lose and hence they play defensively hoping to steal a point. This makes it difficult for the big clubs (they are expected to break tight defenses almost every game). But any team that plays against Leicester is expected to play their normal game and try to win it. This helps Leicester in executing their strategy and hit teams on counter. Again, nothing to take away from Leicester here. They deserve to win the title this season. And it makes every sports fan happy. It will be interesting to see how teams approach Leicester next season.
- toyg 11y ago
  That's changed since Christmas, to be honest, and you can see it from results: they had to grind out 1-0 results where before they had scored 2 or more. That's where they've made it: by managing to beat other teams once their game plan became evident and competitors had adjusted.
yusufp 11y ago
The only reason Leicester are where they are is because of Team spirit. Ranieri has imbued a sense of mission and it's very refreshing to see a team all fighting towards one goal. I used to play competitive sports and whenever their was a great team spirit, we all seem to have upped our game substantially. Mainly because you never want to let the guy/girl next to you down. Spurs, the next best team, seem to have a very similar team spirit running through them. This is not to take away from the other important aspects, but it seems that this is where they stand out. All other teams have good players, scouting, resources, etc. but not all of them have the same sense of 'need' to win as Leicester. This spirit is essential.
Graham24 11y ago
Has anyone else on Hacker News actually seen Leicester City play this season, or is it just me? I'm rather unusual in the office as I'm the only one into computers and watching league football (I blame my dad for that one). For the record, I thought Leicester City were stylistically the worse team I've seen since Stevenage. 90 minutes of long ball until Vardy got a lucky bounce. ugly, ugly, ugly. I hope Spurs win, at least they played football against us. Up the Cherries.
lintiness 11y ago
a short lesson in statistics: 20 teams in the premier league, one wins; no team EVER should be 5000-1 to win it. it was a preposterously stupid betting line.
- celticninja 11y ago
  Those figures don't mean every team is 20/1. Your comment is less a lesson in statistics and more a lesson in how people confuse probability and statistics.
  - lintiness 11y ago
    LOL 5000 to 1 means the WORST team in the pl wins the league once in recorded history (roughly). if this sounds right to you, you're welcome at my poker table anytime.
    - celticninja 11y ago
      The bookies price it like that because they have zero expectation of them winning the league. If you are familiar with the EPL you would understand why they thought like this. The reason such crazy odds are offered is because otherwise few people would place bets on it. Now next season when the bottom quarter of the table are all at odds of 250/1 a lot of fans will think "remember Leicester last season” and may bet when they otherwise would not have or may bet more, without any real expectation of winning. The odds offered by bookies ate in part based on statistics, probability and business reasons.
      - lintiness 11y ago
        reread my initial post, pal. lc at 5000 to 1 was astonishingly stupid.
- Mikeb85 11y ago
  It's been 2 decades since a team other than United, Chelsea, Arsenal or City have won the Premier League...
patrickk 11y ago
When I saw "dirty dozen" in the title I thought: a mainstream article about Leicester being dosed to their eyeballs on performance enhancing drugs (controversial opinion alert). Some random facts: - Football is notoriously lax about drug testing. IIRC you get urine tested maybe every 6 months, if even that much. Urine tests are very easy to skirt around compared to the gold standard, which is blood tests. - Leicester barely survived relegation in 2014/15, they clung on by a single point. They've apparently gone from Premier League bottom feeders to world beaters in one season. -Jamie Vardy, Leicester's star striker and latest England darling ahead of the Euros in the summer, basically burst out of nowhere at 29, scoring just 5 goals in the 2014/15 season, but an astonishing 22 goals in 2015/16[1], including breaking the Premier League record for goals scored in consecutive games. Players are generally not know for having breakout seasons so late in their career. - Leicester have a very consistent starting 11 every week over a grueling season, and been "lucky" with injuries. Some comments from a BBC article: "It is the Foxes who have been by far the most impressive, though, because they have been able to keep playing at a high tempo from the start to the finish of matches. Leicester have scored 10 goals in the final 15 minutes of Premier League matches this season, which have earned them 12 points. The Foxes have also conceded nine goals in the final 15 minutes but only one of them has cost them points - Rudy Gestede's equaliser for Aston Villa in January. Again, that shows whatever they are doing in training is right, because I know from experience you do not just stay that fit over many months of the season. Some people have said they have been fortunate not having many injuries. But is it luck, or is it down to a really good medical staff and a training regime that keeps the players fit and at the level of fitness required to play the way they do? I don't think it is a coincidence they have managed both. Sure, you need some luck along the way too but I certainly think their fitness levels are far above most of the other top-flight teams. That has made their style of play more effective, which has made them harder to beat. You cannot wear them down or just wait for them to tire."[2] - There's been other PED scandals in football that have been swept under the table, even buried by judges in Spain. Here's a great Reddit comment heavily implying that Real Madrid and Barcelona have been/are doping[3]. When a lab in Spain was raided, Nadal's tennis performance dropped dramatically, Barca's form dropped, the Spanish national team's invincible streak (2008-2010) dropped off a cliff. There's other stuff too like Gareth Bale, who became ripped as hell quite suddenly: "While many of his Real Madrid team-mates were away strutting their stuff during the World Cup, it appears Gareth Bale was busy working hard in the gym. The Wales midfielder took part in Real's training on Thursday looking rather bulky in comparison to last season."[4] None of this on its own proves anything. But if you put all what we know together: lax drug testing, huge financial incentives to dope, the romance story of an unknown club surviving relegation by one point in 2014/15 to becoming world beaters the next season, the lack of injuries, the non-stop, almost inhuman energy levels over a long season in one of the most physically demanding football leagues, the massive FIFA scandals and the joy of a footballing romance story for the fans, you begin to wonder.... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamie_Vardy#Club https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamie_Vardy#Club [2] http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/35553082 http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/35553082 [3] https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/3s9a9d/how_prominent_is_doping_in_football_arsene_wenger/cwv9259?context=3 https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/3s9a9d/how_prominen... [4] http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2718823/Real-Madrid-training-ahead-Spanish-Super-Cup-final-against-Sevilla-Cardiff.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2718823/Re...
lordnacho 11y ago
Comparing with the us sports is tough for several reasons: The American sports have no relegation system, but on the contrary have a loser-to-winner system of drafting. You even hear about potential conspiracies to come last when a guy like (no pun) Luck is available. In Europe there's also no salary cap. When my team played Barcelona a few years ago pretty much all their players had a market value exceeding my whole team. That doesn't happen in the us sports because of the cap, and so when you look at various halls of fame you find a nicely spread set of clubs that the best players played at. This also makes the patriots quite a special franchise. So why Leicester? Without having the stats available, I can see a couple of things. First, the premier league pays huge salaries. That means even middling clubs are big fish on the European market. But while there's plenty of stats to say who is good at playing, it isn't easy to put a value on the relative merits of players. So you may think Raheem Sterling is a great player, but how much more should you pay for him than a Mahrez? Hard to say. And you also have the brand recognition problem. You buy Mahrez for 1M, he bombs, you lose your job. Or you buy Sterling for 50, he bombs, people think he had an off season or they think of some other excuse. Second, even very good players are wary of competing for spots. Leicester are not a team of amateurs. They are full time professionals, many with national team experience. Perhaps the prior probability of 1 in 5000 needs revision. It may have made sense back in the days where some teams were playing local boys vs international stars, but not in the pro era. I remember years ago one of the teams in the Danish league went bust and had to field amateurs. They were caned every match. Third, it's not easy to go from individual performance stats to a team plan. It's actually incredibly hard to build a model of how they'll all work together.
blue11 11y ago
It's quite a stretch to portrait Leicester as a "moneyball" club. If you actually looked at the statistical data, they should be losing. A lot. Cherry-picking a few statistics and building a narrative around them is just silly. Leicester's season has been the most amazing Cinderella story in football that I can remember (Greece winning EURO 2004 is the closest, but I did not enjoy their style that much). And that's why we watch football, no matter what the statistics tell you, at the end it's 11 vs 11 and the game must be played.
rahilb 11y ago
http://www.theplayerstribune.com/claudio-ranieri-leicester-city-premier-league/ http://www.theplayerstribune.com/claudio-ranieri-leicester-c... Here's a nice editorial(?) written by the manager, Claudio Ranieri. >Now, we are fighting for a title. The Leicester fans I meet in the street tell me they are dreaming. But I say to them, “Okay, you dream for us. We do not dream. We simply work hard.”

82 points by oli5679 11y ago

takno 11y ago

If it was a science experiment bottom-placed villa were certainly able to provide the control group, appointing a board largely at random and then letting them ignore the manager and pick players on the basis of, well nobody's sure, but they might have liked the names. It seems like the application of statistics works!

toyg 11y ago

"Four big clubs -- Manchester United, Chelsea, Manchester City and Arsenal -- have won all the titles in the past 20 years", but they "all had appalling seasons: Chelsea, [...] Manchester United [...] and Liverpool, the other big club, is seventh." Er, so Man City and Arsenal are not "big clubs", apparently. Nice "submarine" insult there. EDIT: another gem: "All teams have always counterattacked, but few have based their game so completely around it." That's utter drivel. Go read up on Italian teams of the 60s, which were pretty successful at doing exactly that. With all due respect to Claudio Ranieri, he's not really close to the genius of Nereo Rocco or Helenio Herrera. The innovation of Leicester City is that they used statistics to identify players who could fit this style better than the average, and they recruited a manager who knows how to manage this style of play better than the average. Whether this combination was an accident or not, I think it's still open for debate -- they had a very successful run of games with the previous manager as well.

radicalbyte 11y ago
No, he's saying that neither Arsenal or Man City are having appalling seasons. They're both doing pretty well. The funny thing is that Spurs are also having a fantastic season, if it wasn't for Leicester this article could have been written by a Spurs fan about their amazing rise up the league.
- ed_blackburn 11y ago
  Who are incidentally top of the league by most metric other than the one that matters most.
- ZenoArrow 11y ago
  > "No, he's saying that neither Arsenal or Man City are having appalling seasons. They're both doing pretty well." As an Arsenal fan, I couldn't disagree with you more. Arsenal have had an awful second half to the season, if they hadn't had a strong start they'd be mid table: http://metro.co.uk/2016/04/14/revealed-arsenals-terrible-league-form-since-christmas-5815262/ http://metro.co.uk/2016/04/14/revealed-arsenals-terrible-lea... Many Arsenal fans are somewhat livid with how this season has played out, with the majority of the anger being directed at the manager and the board.
  - macca321 11y ago
    and Theo.
    - ZenoArrow 11y ago
      There have been a couple of players who have got some stick, but it's nothing compared to Wenger and Kroenke. Why Wenger seems reluctant to play on form players and is reluctant/unwilling to buy another first class centre back and striker is beyond me.
      - blowski 11y ago
        Blimey. A full on football debate on HN.
  - ameen 11y ago
    As a Man City fan, I was sure you guys would finally win it. It's as if our managers don't really want to win the PL. Pellegrini and Wenger's stubbornness is an important reason for Leicester and Spurs to lead the table.
blowski 11y ago
I'm not sure what you mean. He's saying there are 5 big clubs. 4 of them (Man Utd, Chelsea, Man City, Arsenal) have won all the titles in the last 20 years, but all 5 (including "the other big club" Liverpool) had appalling seasons. I don't think he was insulting anyone.
tomlong 11y ago
Don't know why you're getting modded down here. Especially re: counterattacking - Ranieri is an Italian born in 1951! He was brought up watching precisely that kind of counter attacking football, it's in blood. Almost everyone at Leicester I've heard talk about their success attributes it in some part to Nigel Pearson as well.
ameen 11y ago
As a Man City fan, it's somehow acceptable that we're never considered a big club. We've finished top 3 in the last 5 years, won multiple domestic titles and on track for a 6th yet you'd have English media dubbing our historic CL tie against PSG, El Cashico. The amount of pundits (former Liverpool, United players) in the media is indeed an important reason for that narrative.

dandermotj 11y ago

This article's attempt to contribute Leicester's success this season to "statistics" is just painful. As if every other team in the Premier League and three tiers down don't use extensive analysis in every aspect of selection, performance and scouting. Ranieri's style isn't bizarre or unseen-before. This isn't Moneyball.

toyg 11y ago
Actually, you'd be surprised how many teams "three tiers down" still work in very old-fashioned ways. One reason is budget, which falls dramatically from the Championship down; another is that the Premier League is simply at the forefront of scientific development in football the world over. Source: I have a brother working in the space.
- blowski 11y ago
  I wonder how much of it is clubs prioritising Champions League success over winning the Premier League.
  - tomlong 11y ago
    I think for many reasons they prioritising qualifying for the group stages... Financially for the club but also this dramatically affects their ability to ability to attract players from the very top tier. Of course, Leicester have just shown you can assemble a team good enough to win the league (You're not getting 5/1 now, nevermind 5000/1) for next to nothing. I hope they've all got incredible win the league bonuses in their contracts anyway.
kristianc 11y ago
Perhaps might be worth asking Aston Villa fans how the 'Moneyball' philosophy has worked out for them.
- tingol 11y ago
  But there's Brighton, Brentford and Midtjylland on the other side of the coin. It clearly brings some results but is obviously not enough on the highest level. Maybe that's why bringing in Ranieri was such a good call? He's been quite vocal about his non-involvement in the transfer policy and purely focusing on building a team with the players he has. The reason I'm hopeful for these kinds of strategies is that we might get more Oakland A's and Leicester Cities because seeing money dominate the sport over and over gets kinda boring.

alex95 11y ago

Author states that he is a Leicester fan, but insults the team by saying that other teams haven't been at their best. Other teams haven't been as great as they were last year, but isn't that because of Leicesters success?

colinramsay 11y ago

Luck probably has played a role, but you'd expect teams like Spurs (perhaps), Man City (definitely), and Arsenal (who really should have done better having been the only team to beat Leicester twice this season) to be winning the league this year given the poor performances of Chelsea and Man U. The article doesn't mention that Jamie Vardy is the third-highest scorer in the league, which combined with brilliant individual performances from Mahrez (just awarded the PFA award for player of the season), Kante, Drinkwater, Huth, Morgan and more, has seen some superstar performances that have made a real difference against teams that would have been seen as superior last season. I'd suggest that Ranieri's success as manager has been as much to do with man-management as tactics. He was very careful to get the team focused on staying up, on getting 40 points to survive. It was only in the past few days that he told his squad to go for broke and push for the title. They responded by beating Swansea 4-0, despite being without their top scorer. The Leicester tale is magical, and incredibly unlikely, but I would challenge anyone who said that they don't deserve it.

Ntrails 11y ago
I don't follow football, but I'd love to see an analysis of the impact non league games have in terms of time played, injury rate etc. I would assume that clubs are doing a rational analysis of the cost/benefit from the extra games anyway, but yeah. Interesting to see it.
- colinramsay 11y ago
  This actually raises another great point, which is that Leicester have played fewer games than the teams around them due to not being involved in either the Europa League or the Champions League. They also dumped out of the FA Cup pretty early. Next season's going to be a lot more taxing for them in terms of games played.
- celticninja 11y ago
  You would also need to consider that the top teams tend to have larger squads, so they can rest players without impinging upon their overall quality.

kristianc 11y ago

The alternative view is that we're witnessing a bit of a changing of the guard here. Perhaps one of the biggest moments of the season was Chelsea's pursuit of John Stones from Everton coming to nothing. In another year, he'd have gone, but this year Everton could afford to hang onto their asset. There's now more scope for teams like Leicester to assemble squads of above-average players and hold onto them. They haven't fallen into the trap of teams like Villa, who at one time have had really top players, only to lose them and have to replace them. Or Spurs in the past with losing players like Bale. Or Southampton, who I think had to basically rebuild an entire side three times? There's no longer a huge gap between the top four and the rest, and that gap is no longer reinforced every year by the same teams getting money for being in the Champions League. As such those sides weaknesses are now being more exposed. Man U could well be in long term decline post-Ferguson, Chelsea are an ageing side, Arsenal have long term structural weaknesses in their side which they appear unwilling or unable to address, and Man City in the Premier League often seem to be always a little less than the sum of their parts. We might look back and see the first 20 years of the Premier League as being an anomaly where only a few sides were capable of winning the league.

jonwinstanley 11y ago
The increased money means lower clubs can now afford to buy a better standard of players such as when Cabeye, Payet and Wijnaldum joined average sides in the Summer. But I'm not sure this applies to Leicester. They signed a few players but none that really stood out as surprising apart from Gökhan Inler, who has hardly played all season.
- kristianc 11y ago
  At the same time, where previously there would have been no chance of Riyad Mahrez staying with Leicester with PSG, Arsenal, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Barcelona circling, now they have a real chance of hanging onto him I'd expect.
  - celticninja 11y ago
    If he stays with Leicester he can almost guarantee a first side place, not so much if he goes elsewhere.

curiousgal 11y ago

For those unfamiliar with he Premier League, Leicester City is a team that has one of the greatest underdog fairy tales in the history of any professional sport.

SixSigma 11y ago
Still some way to go to beat their neighbour's story though: Nottingham Forest won promotion to the top division at the end of the 1976–77 season after finishing third in the Second Division, but no-one could have predicted how successful Clough's team would be over the next three seasons. Nottingham Forest became one of the few teams (and the most recent team to date) to win the English First Division Championship a year after winning promotion from the English Second Division (1977–78 season). In 1978–79, Forest went on to win the European Cup by beating Malmö 1–0 in Munich's Olympiastadion and retained the trophy in 1979–80, beating Hamburg 1–0 in Madrid They also won the European Super Cup and two League Cups.
- jaimebuelta 11y ago
  Only team to have more European Cups than national top league titles!
  - SixSigma 11y ago
    Here's me with my parents and a bit of silver in 1979 https://i.sli.mg/d09Ktt.jpg https://i.sli.mg/d09Ktt.jpg My parents ran a supporters club out of their pub. Would you believe the club dropped it off and came back for it the next day !

gavinflud 11y ago

I think their scouting team has definitely played a huge part, bringing in relative unknowns like Vardy, Mahrez and Kante. Most teams in the premier league track all sorts of statistics nowadays though, so I don't think that has set Leicester apart from the others. Companies like Opta make a fortune by providing some of this data. Overall, I think they've recruited well, been managed well and have all played to a level most people didn't think was in them. All of that combined with the other top teams all having horrific seasons means the stars have aligned for Leicester. It would be a tragedy if they didn't go ahead and take the title now.

ameen 11y ago
The problem for top teams is that they look for the finished article, not players getting there. So scouts from Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City wouldn't have recommended the likes of Mahrez or Vardy since they didn't have an exceptional season, also only top leagues are looked at. So a Ligue 2 player and a Championship player aren't ever in their sights. Leicester seeking out gems from unexplored areas is what gave them these bargain signings. They wouldn't have been able to sign these players if they had to go toe to toe with big clubs.

helipad 11y ago

Leicester's season is an anomaly, and therefore hard to take lessons from. No-one saw this coming. Not Leicester's players, who were bottom of the league just over a year ago. Not Leicester's manager, for whom 17th place would have been a success. Jamie Vardy scored 5 goals last season, the team had a below average defence, Ranieri's career to date had done nothing to predict this turnaround. They're style of play isn't innovative, though it was unfashionable relative to other styles. Note too that they almost flipped their style 180 part-way through the season, from gung ho football to extreme counter attacking. There was no grand plan. For every argument in Leicester's favour of how they've done it, you can find many similar examples across other leagues, without anything like the success. Leicester's season has been incredible and remarkable. We're going to just have to enjoy it, because we cannot analyse it.

stinkytaco 11y ago
I disagree. Starting with Ranieri, a manager who has not had the career he might have hoped, but with flashes of brilliance. These include rebuilding Chelsea into a squad that would compete for the next decade. Frank Lampard credits him with keeping the team in the premier league. He also somehow brought Juventus from Serie B to third place (coincidentally foreshadowing his run with Leicester). He certainly made some bad decisions as well, but it's unfair to say that 17th would have been a success for the manager. For the team, perhaps, yes. As to their style of play, that strikes me as their greatest success. Ranieri was not tempted by "modern" possession focused styles, but rather adapted his team to the pace of Vardy. The emergence of Mahrez and Drinkwater and the addition of the excellent N'golo Kante in the midfield also meant they were able to adapt when team's started to narrow to counter Vardy, using Vardy's pace to create space. In addition, when this adaptation happened Leicester organized the defense, keeping more clean sheets and using increased width to drive players like Fuchs forward. I don't think any of this is a "fluke", but rather working with the players you have to find what works best. There is no doubt they've had a great deal of luck, as well. The careers of both Fuchs and Huth were both considered failures of the promise they once offered, and certainly Vardy will not maintain his level for very long. They have also avoided injuries, not testing the depth of their squad, especially in the midfield. But you do not win the Premier League on luck alone. Leicester will compete for a Champions League spot next year if they can make three or four signings to address their depth and keep the core of Mahrez/Kante/Drinkwater together in the midfield.

petepete 11y ago

One aspect that many people forget when discussing Leicester's success is Steve Walsh. Under both Pearson and Ranieri, he has overseen the signings of real quality players very (and I mean very) reasonably. N'Golo Kante (£5.6m), Riyad Mahrez (£350k), Stefan Fuchs (free), Jamie Vardy (£1m), Esteban Cambiasso (who left before this season started, but was instrumental in them staying up last year, free), Robert Huth, Danny Drinkwater etc, for next to nothing. It's a keen eye for a good player, often from foreign leagues or lower divisions where high-quality statistics aren't so easily available, that makes the difference. All of those players listed are worth a fraction of what Manchester City paid for Raheem Sterling (~£50m), and he's barely made an impact.

branchless 11y ago
Pearson also signed a lot of very good players at Hull City. I was sad that he left us.

ramkarthikk 11y ago

Lot of factors have played a part in Leicester's rise to the top this season. They have played the same group of players for the most part, who have all been in the form of their lives, a really good manager (with good man-management skills), good scouting etc. One of the factors that most people don't mention but has played a vital part (also one that separates Leicester from Tottenham, who are 2nd right now) is that no PL team parks the bus or plays for a draw against Leicester. Many teams come into the games against big clubs (including Tottenham) expecting to lose and hence they play defensively hoping to steal a point. This makes it difficult for the big clubs (they are expected to break tight defenses almost every game). But any team that plays against Leicester is expected to play their normal game and try to win it. This helps Leicester in executing their strategy and hit teams on counter. Again, nothing to take away from Leicester here. They deserve to win the title this season. And it makes every sports fan happy. It will be interesting to see how teams approach Leicester next season.

toyg 11y ago
That's changed since Christmas, to be honest, and you can see it from results: they had to grind out 1-0 results where before they had scored 2 or more. That's where they've made it: by managing to beat other teams once their game plan became evident and competitors had adjusted.

yusufp 11y ago

The only reason Leicester are where they are is because of Team spirit. Ranieri has imbued a sense of mission and it's very refreshing to see a team all fighting towards one goal. I used to play competitive sports and whenever their was a great team spirit, we all seem to have upped our game substantially. Mainly because you never want to let the guy/girl next to you down. Spurs, the next best team, seem to have a very similar team spirit running through them. This is not to take away from the other important aspects, but it seems that this is where they stand out. All other teams have good players, scouting, resources, etc. but not all of them have the same sense of 'need' to win as Leicester. This spirit is essential.

Graham24 11y ago

Has anyone else on Hacker News actually seen Leicester City play this season, or is it just me? I'm rather unusual in the office as I'm the only one into computers and watching league football (I blame my dad for that one). For the record, I thought Leicester City were stylistically the worse team I've seen since Stevenage. 90 minutes of long ball until Vardy got a lucky bounce. ugly, ugly, ugly. I hope Spurs win, at least they played football against us. Up the Cherries.

lintiness 11y ago

a short lesson in statistics: 20 teams in the premier league, one wins; no team EVER should be 5000-1 to win it. it was a preposterously stupid betting line.

celticninja 11y ago
Those figures don't mean every team is 20/1. Your comment is less a lesson in statistics and more a lesson in how people confuse probability and statistics.
- lintiness 11y ago
  LOL 5000 to 1 means the WORST team in the pl wins the league once in recorded history (roughly). if this sounds right to you, you're welcome at my poker table anytime.
  - celticninja 11y ago
    The bookies price it like that because they have zero expectation of them winning the league. If you are familiar with the EPL you would understand why they thought like this. The reason such crazy odds are offered is because otherwise few people would place bets on it. Now next season when the bottom quarter of the table are all at odds of 250/1 a lot of fans will think "remember Leicester last season” and may bet when they otherwise would not have or may bet more, without any real expectation of winning. The odds offered by bookies ate in part based on statistics, probability and business reasons.
    - lintiness 11y ago
      reread my initial post, pal. lc at 5000 to 1 was astonishingly stupid.
Mikeb85 11y ago
It's been 2 decades since a team other than United, Chelsea, Arsenal or City have won the Premier League...

patrickk 11y ago

When I saw "dirty dozen" in the title I thought: a mainstream article about Leicester being dosed to their eyeballs on performance enhancing drugs (controversial opinion alert). Some random facts: - Football is notoriously lax about drug testing. IIRC you get urine tested maybe every 6 months, if even that much. Urine tests are very easy to skirt around compared to the gold standard, which is blood tests. - Leicester barely survived relegation in 2014/15, they clung on by a single point. They've apparently gone from Premier League bottom feeders to world beaters in one season. -Jamie Vardy, Leicester's star striker and latest England darling ahead of the Euros in the summer, basically burst out of nowhere at 29, scoring just 5 goals in the 2014/15 season, but an astonishing 22 goals in 2015/16[1], including breaking the Premier League record for goals scored in consecutive games. Players are generally not know for having breakout seasons so late in their career. - Leicester have a very consistent starting 11 every week over a grueling season, and been "lucky" with injuries. Some comments from a BBC article: "It is the Foxes who have been by far the most impressive, though, because they have been able to keep playing at a high tempo from the start to the finish of matches. Leicester have scored 10 goals in the final 15 minutes of Premier League matches this season, which have earned them 12 points. The Foxes have also conceded nine goals in the final 15 minutes but only one of them has cost them points - Rudy Gestede's equaliser for Aston Villa in January. Again, that shows whatever they are doing in training is right, because I know from experience you do not just stay that fit over many months of the season. Some people have said they have been fortunate not having many injuries. But is it luck, or is it down to a really good medical staff and a training regime that keeps the players fit and at the level of fitness required to play the way they do? I don't think it is a coincidence they have managed both. Sure, you need some luck along the way too but I certainly think their fitness levels are far above most of the other top-flight teams. That has made their style of play more effective, which has made them harder to beat. You cannot wear them down or just wait for them to tire."[2] - There's been other PED scandals in football that have been swept under the table, even buried by judges in Spain. Here's a great Reddit comment heavily implying that Real Madrid and Barcelona have been/are doping[3]. When a lab in Spain was raided, Nadal's tennis performance dropped dramatically, Barca's form dropped, the Spanish national team's invincible streak (2008-2010) dropped off a cliff. There's other stuff too like Gareth Bale, who became ripped as hell quite suddenly: "While many of his Real Madrid team-mates were away strutting their stuff during the World Cup, it appears Gareth Bale was busy working hard in the gym. The Wales midfielder took part in Real's training on Thursday looking rather bulky in comparison to last season."[4] None of this on its own proves anything. But if you put all what we know together: lax drug testing, huge financial incentives to dope, the romance story of an unknown club surviving relegation by one point in 2014/15 to becoming world beaters the next season, the lack of injuries, the non-stop, almost inhuman energy levels over a long season in one of the most physically demanding football leagues, the massive FIFA scandals and the joy of a footballing romance story for the fans, you begin to wonder.... [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamie_Vardy#Club https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamie_Vardy#Club [2] http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/35553082 http://www.bbc.com/sport/football/35553082 [3] https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/3s9a9d/how_prominent_is_doping_in_football_arsene_wenger/cwv9259?context=3 https://www.reddit.com/r/soccer/comments/3s9a9d/how_prominen... [4] http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2718823/Real-Madrid-training-ahead-Spanish-Super-Cup-final-against-Sevilla-Cardiff.html http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/football/article-2718823/Re...

lordnacho 11y ago

Comparing with the us sports is tough for several reasons: The American sports have no relegation system, but on the contrary have a loser-to-winner system of drafting. You even hear about potential conspiracies to come last when a guy like (no pun) Luck is available. In Europe there's also no salary cap. When my team played Barcelona a few years ago pretty much all their players had a market value exceeding my whole team. That doesn't happen in the us sports because of the cap, and so when you look at various halls of fame you find a nicely spread set of clubs that the best players played at. This also makes the patriots quite a special franchise. So why Leicester? Without having the stats available, I can see a couple of things. First, the premier league pays huge salaries. That means even middling clubs are big fish on the European market. But while there's plenty of stats to say who is good at playing, it isn't easy to put a value on the relative merits of players. So you may think Raheem Sterling is a great player, but how much more should you pay for him than a Mahrez? Hard to say. And you also have the brand recognition problem. You buy Mahrez for 1M, he bombs, you lose your job. Or you buy Sterling for 50, he bombs, people think he had an off season or they think of some other excuse. Second, even very good players are wary of competing for spots. Leicester are not a team of amateurs. They are full time professionals, many with national team experience. Perhaps the prior probability of 1 in 5000 needs revision. It may have made sense back in the days where some teams were playing local boys vs international stars, but not in the pro era. I remember years ago one of the teams in the Danish league went bust and had to field amateurs. They were caned every match. Third, it's not easy to go from individual performance stats to a team plan. It's actually incredibly hard to build a model of how they'll all work together.

blue11 11y ago

It's quite a stretch to portrait Leicester as a "moneyball" club. If you actually looked at the statistical data, they should be losing. A lot. Cherry-picking a few statistics and building a narrative around them is just silly. Leicester's season has been the most amazing Cinderella story in football that I can remember (Greece winning EURO 2004 is the closest, but I did not enjoy their style that much). And that's why we watch football, no matter what the statistics tell you, at the end it's 11 vs 11 and the game must be played.

rahilb 11y ago

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/claudio-ranieri-leicester-city-premier-league/ http://www.theplayerstribune.com/claudio-ranieri-leicester-c... Here's a nice editorial(?) written by the manager, Claudio Ranieri. >Now, we are fighting for a title. The Leicester fans I meet in the street tell me they are dreaming. But I say to them, “Okay, you dream for us. We do not dream. We simply work hard.”