6 ms·

Silicon Valley's $585B Problem

67 points by apsec112 11y ago

csense 11y ago
There are two issues that are causing this: (1) Sarbanes-Oxley has made life harder for public companies, so companies are waiting longer, getting bigger, and giving more of their returns to pre-IPO investors. (2) QE means there's a lot of money trying to chase returns, leading to asset bubbles and volatility as investors bid against each other.
- jeanduluoz 11y ago
  Absolutely agreed on (2). However, to follow that up, that should be leading to bubbles in both private and public equities (which it has). Ultimately, QE does nothing to stimulate the economy, only artificially pumping assets we use as metrics for the economy. Ultimately information will be passed through prices as institutional traders start to agree that fundamental values are lower, and more QE will start to actually damage equities, rather than pumping them as we've seen. So cheaper credit affects private and public equities equally. But that's not what we're seeing here - public equities are at lower valuations than private. I believe that is because PE is substantially less sophisticated relative to public markets. There is no way to short assets, holding periods are 3-7 years, and the method of transaction is cumbersome and antiquated. Compared to public markets, PE has more information asymmetry, less efficiency, lower liquidity, fewer participants, and no easy way of ratcheting down valuations until the next sale. So QE has pumped up PE even more than public equities, and we see that as privately valued firms struggle after going public.
  - tostitos1979 11y ago
    I am genuinely worried if assets such as real-estate will deflate once we get to normal interest rates (which I suppose will happen around the time I die). As someone who is house poor, I can see an asset that is bubbilicious but I feel I have no choice but accept the distortion of the market.
chollida1 11y ago
I'll take a bit more controversial side. I don't believe Sarbanes Oxley has anything to do with companies not going public. Its a crutch that week companies rely on.. I probably get ot speak with more CEO/CFO's than most people here and I've never once heard SarBox brought up as any sort of issue. What Sarbox will do is force companies to be a bit more mature with their own internal financial controls, ie they can't run their company using quickbooks anymore. From my perspective the biggest issues that companies who go public have are two fold: 1) They've come from the VC model where growth is held above all other things. Once you go public, growth is expected but its also expected to take a back seat to generating profits. This can be a very tough transition for some companies as it means quite often the things you were doing to please your VC are no longer the things you should be doing when you are public. 2) You can now be shorted. When you are private, its like the market for sports free agents. it only takes one VC/team to pay a company/player. There is now check and balance in terms of being able to short the company. Which means there is no real downward pressure that allows companies to find their equilibrium price. Unfortunately this means that many companies whoi go public find out later on that they were the sheltered child who was good at sports in their own small town, but when they got to the big city, they and their parents(VC's) overvalued their own abilities. 3) Most companies who go public don't know how to guide or handle wall street. You might get offended by this, "who is wall street to say what I can or can''t do with my company", but they are the owners of your company. Consider this scenario. Your friend raises a great Series A valuation, say $25 million. He then comes to you to complain that his VC's are pushing back on him for wanting to pay himself a $1,000,000 salary and the company buying a share of a private jet, and who are the VC's to say how the company should spend its money. You'd probably look at your friend with disbelief. Wall street is the same, once you go public they are the owners of the company and you need to know how to keep them happy. The best thing Twitter has done since going public was to hire Anthony Noto as their CFO (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Noto https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Noto).
- bko 11y ago
  Do you think that regulation by the SEC has any adverse impact on innovation in the IPO market? I remember reading that during the Google IPO, the SEC was often unhappy with the unusual circumstances and that the Google founders thought that the regulations, such as the quiet period, were outdated.
yalogin 11y ago
So are these IPOs LC, GPRO AND LNKD ever going to recover?
- vasilipupkin 11y ago
  yes, if they start making money. their PE ratios are still on the high side
Kinnard 11y ago
I'm beginning to think the "bubble" has more to do with financial news needing something to report on and get people's attention than the broad performance of the industry. In that case, it's the "Ad Bubble" not another tech bubble.
- rm_-rf_slash 11y ago
  Spot on. Unlike the 90s, a lot of startups today are actually making things and making money hand-over-fist, it's insane. Too bad for the press they're obscure business models and located in places like Lansing MI and you've never heard of them, but there is tons of money to be made. On the other hand, social networks, big data, and now neural networks are The Big Thing, so everyone relentlessly reports on them, throws money at them like the hottest stripper in Vegas, and gets resoundly disappointed when they don't live up to people's astronomical expectations. Besides, if people generally only spend $X a year on stuff they see advertised or sold online, how much money is going to be sunk into online advertising, big data, and all that other junk until you're basically getting one dollar earned for every dollar spent?
  - dismal2 11y ago
    the question is how much of the other stuff being built is built on top of the ad money pyramid. would cloud computing have grown as much without tons of apps and sites springing up that then try to acquire users via the main adverting channels? how many saas businesses are there catering to these types of cos that are basically unsustainable, but got funding which they primarily used in user acquisition efforts?
    - rm_-rf_slash 11y ago
      Yeah that's a scary thought. You get a bunch of businesses that are flush with VC money and that opens opportunities for other companies that rely on their services or networks (granted that usually means google <thing> or AWS but that doesn't make their arbitrary removal of services any less capricious), and suddenly the pyramid wobbles like a house of cards. Then again I'm naturally averse to invest in anything that doesn't have a profit motive front and center.
pdq 11y ago
Note: this article is from February 1, 2016
gaur 11y ago
Inserting stock ticker garbage into articles is really obnoxious.
sna1l 11y ago
“Part of the main reason for going public was to continue to establish Lending Club’s brand and credibility,” he says. I feel like this doesn't apply to most companies nowadays. I think Lending Club is in a special place because they deal with financials, which requires an increased level of trust. A lot of companies like Uber, Airbnb, and smaller startups like Wealthfront, Betterment, etc are able to generate pretty solid brand recognition and trust without going public. Also, this article really makes it seem like the only reason companies aren't going public is because they aren't ready and that none of them are making any money. I feel like that is a vast overgeneralization. The ones that are making money, or are successful are still going to be able to raise money privately. I know everyone here thinks the sky is falling down and funding is drying up, but I don't think that is the case for GOOD companies. Sure your uber for X might not get funding anymore, but solid companies I imagine are still able to raise new rounds reasonably easily. Why would you want to go public when you can raise adequate sums of money through private financing?
kalu 11y ago
I enjoyed this article. Interesting detail, compelling story line, easy to digest. Unfortunately, the thesis is deeply flawed--that most stocks plummet after IPO does not a broken system make.

67 points by apsec112 11y ago

There are two issues that are causing this: (1) Sarbanes-Oxley has made life harder for public companies, so companies are waiting longer, getting bigger, and giving more of their returns to pre-IPO investors. (2) QE means there's a lot of money trying to chase returns, leading to asset bubbles and volatility as investors bid against each other.

jeanduluoz 11y ago
Absolutely agreed on (2). However, to follow that up, that should be leading to bubbles in both private and public equities (which it has). Ultimately, QE does nothing to stimulate the economy, only artificially pumping assets we use as metrics for the economy. Ultimately information will be passed through prices as institutional traders start to agree that fundamental values are lower, and more QE will start to actually damage equities, rather than pumping them as we've seen. So cheaper credit affects private and public equities equally. But that's not what we're seeing here - public equities are at lower valuations than private. I believe that is because PE is substantially less sophisticated relative to public markets. There is no way to short assets, holding periods are 3-7 years, and the method of transaction is cumbersome and antiquated. Compared to public markets, PE has more information asymmetry, less efficiency, lower liquidity, fewer participants, and no easy way of ratcheting down valuations until the next sale. So QE has pumped up PE even more than public equities, and we see that as privately valued firms struggle after going public.
- tostitos1979 11y ago
  I am genuinely worried if assets such as real-estate will deflate once we get to normal interest rates (which I suppose will happen around the time I die). As someone who is house poor, I can see an asset that is bubbilicious but I feel I have no choice but accept the distortion of the market.

chollida1 11y ago

I'll take a bit more controversial side. I don't believe Sarbanes Oxley has anything to do with companies not going public. Its a crutch that week companies rely on.. I probably get ot speak with more CEO/CFO's than most people here and I've never once heard SarBox brought up as any sort of issue. What Sarbox will do is force companies to be a bit more mature with their own internal financial controls, ie they can't run their company using quickbooks anymore. From my perspective the biggest issues that companies who go public have are two fold: 1) They've come from the VC model where growth is held above all other things. Once you go public, growth is expected but its also expected to take a back seat to generating profits. This can be a very tough transition for some companies as it means quite often the things you were doing to please your VC are no longer the things you should be doing when you are public. 2) You can now be shorted. When you are private, its like the market for sports free agents. it only takes one VC/team to pay a company/player. There is now check and balance in terms of being able to short the company. Which means there is no real downward pressure that allows companies to find their equilibrium price. Unfortunately this means that many companies whoi go public find out later on that they were the sheltered child who was good at sports in their own small town, but when they got to the big city, they and their parents(VC's) overvalued their own abilities. 3) Most companies who go public don't know how to guide or handle wall street. You might get offended by this, "who is wall street to say what I can or can''t do with my company", but they are the owners of your company. Consider this scenario. Your friend raises a great Series A valuation, say $25 million. He then comes to you to complain that his VC's are pushing back on him for wanting to pay himself a $1,000,000 salary and the company buying a share of a private jet, and who are the VC's to say how the company should spend its money. You'd probably look at your friend with disbelief. Wall street is the same, once you go public they are the owners of the company and you need to know how to keep them happy. The best thing Twitter has done since going public was to hire Anthony Noto as their CFO (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Noto https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Noto).

bko 11y ago
Do you think that regulation by the SEC has any adverse impact on innovation in the IPO market? I remember reading that during the Google IPO, the SEC was often unhappy with the unusual circumstances and that the Google founders thought that the regulations, such as the quiet period, were outdated.

yalogin 11y ago

So are these IPOs LC, GPRO AND LNKD ever going to recover?

vasilipupkin 11y ago
yes, if they start making money. their PE ratios are still on the high side

Kinnard 11y ago

I'm beginning to think the "bubble" has more to do with financial news needing something to report on and get people's attention than the broad performance of the industry. In that case, it's the "Ad Bubble" not another tech bubble.

rm_-rf_slash 11y ago
Spot on. Unlike the 90s, a lot of startups today are actually making things and making money hand-over-fist, it's insane. Too bad for the press they're obscure business models and located in places like Lansing MI and you've never heard of them, but there is tons of money to be made. On the other hand, social networks, big data, and now neural networks are The Big Thing, so everyone relentlessly reports on them, throws money at them like the hottest stripper in Vegas, and gets resoundly disappointed when they don't live up to people's astronomical expectations. Besides, if people generally only spend $X a year on stuff they see advertised or sold online, how much money is going to be sunk into online advertising, big data, and all that other junk until you're basically getting one dollar earned for every dollar spent?
- dismal2 11y ago
  the question is how much of the other stuff being built is built on top of the ad money pyramid. would cloud computing have grown as much without tons of apps and sites springing up that then try to acquire users via the main adverting channels? how many saas businesses are there catering to these types of cos that are basically unsustainable, but got funding which they primarily used in user acquisition efforts?
  - rm_-rf_slash 11y ago
    Yeah that's a scary thought. You get a bunch of businesses that are flush with VC money and that opens opportunities for other companies that rely on their services or networks (granted that usually means google <thing> or AWS but that doesn't make their arbitrary removal of services any less capricious), and suddenly the pyramid wobbles like a house of cards. Then again I'm naturally averse to invest in anything that doesn't have a profit motive front and center.

pdq 11y ago

Note: this article is from February 1, 2016

gaur 11y ago

Inserting stock ticker garbage into articles is really obnoxious.

sna1l 11y ago

“Part of the main reason for going public was to continue to establish Lending Club’s brand and credibility,” he says. I feel like this doesn't apply to most companies nowadays. I think Lending Club is in a special place because they deal with financials, which requires an increased level of trust. A lot of companies like Uber, Airbnb, and smaller startups like Wealthfront, Betterment, etc are able to generate pretty solid brand recognition and trust without going public. Also, this article really makes it seem like the only reason companies aren't going public is because they aren't ready and that none of them are making any money. I feel like that is a vast overgeneralization. The ones that are making money, or are successful are still going to be able to raise money privately. I know everyone here thinks the sky is falling down and funding is drying up, but I don't think that is the case for GOOD companies. Sure your uber for X might not get funding anymore, but solid companies I imagine are still able to raise new rounds reasonably easily. Why would you want to go public when you can raise adequate sums of money through private financing?

kalu 11y ago

I enjoyed this article. Interesting detail, compelling story line, easy to digest. Unfortunately, the thesis is deeply flawed--that most stocks plummet after IPO does not a broken system make.