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The article says most flying is automated these days. I can see the need for a human in the loop for special conditions. However, humans do make errors, and som

by nvader 11y ago

The article says most flying is automated these days. I can see the need for a human in the loop for special conditions. However, humans do make errors, and sometimes act maliciously. How far are we, do you think, from self-flying planes?

nvader 11y ago
Maybe freight would be the initial area to introduce them, as the risk of loss of life is minimised.
- venomsnake 11y ago
  In the air. On the ground the risk is the same.
  - runamok 11y ago
    Even in the US there is a whole lot of open space. And I don't think massive distribution centers are in extremely urban areas with high population density.
    - jonathankoren 11y ago
      Yeah, but where are the airports? They're inevitably in population centers. Case in point: FedEx flies into SJC, and the planes on the approach fly low over downtown, and very low over 101, since the end of the runway is right next to 101.
  - bayesian_horse 11y ago
    An unmanned cargo plane could suicide in an emergency such that no human is harmed.
seanmcdirmid 11y ago
I think we are already there given that flying is a much easier task than driving. See http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/03/has-the-self-flying-plane-arrived/472005/ http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/03/has-th... As one conspiracy theory, low pilot pay could be the industry's way of forcing the issue, given the psychological barriers to completely automated flights. Additionally, partial automation leads to lots of boredom for pilots, which could detract from rather than improve safety (full automation avoids that problem). We should see it happen in our lifetimes, anyways.
davidwihl 11y ago
a long way, as there are many unpredictable unforeseen combinations of events in the sky. A much more likely scenario is single pilot commercial flights, especially for regionals, effectively doubling pilot capacity.
- wannabepilot 11y ago
  Maybe we'll see single pilots on short regional flights, but with pilots falling asleep and things like the Germanwings suicide I can't imagine single pilot commercial flights being the norm happen any time soon. And on longer domestic flights, pilots still need to be able to eat a meal and get up to use the bathroom.
throwaway_exer 11y ago
Despite the silly comments in this thread, we're so far away from drone airliners that the question is in the realm of science fiction because of human judgment: - airports and terminal areas are very busy - en route diversions can happen anytime due to weather observed in flight - airports like SFO can be fogged in most any day. Military drones aren't being landed in busy urban areas.
- bayesian_horse 11y ago
  None of these points are big obstacles. Airports may be "busy", but the system is already set up such that pilots can perform a whole flight under next-to-zero visibility. It's mainly an issue of airspace control. En route diversions are easy to handle by a rudimentary flight crew and communication equipment. The computer just needs to know the new destination and off it goes. It could even find one on its own, if all the crew is knocked out and all communications have failed. That being said, people won't trust an AI enough to make this a reality soon. Even though a system more secure than an average pilot is certainly conceivable.
- dingaling 11y ago
  In all three of those circumstances the human pilots are already relays, and are not really not necessary as executors. Consider the current ATC data links such as CPDCLC. The pilots read what appears on the screen and press ACCEPT to load the ATC commands into the flight management computer which instructs the autopilot. Pilots don't land in thick fog, autoland has been doing that for 50 years. If autoland self-aborts they divert to another airport and follow the ILS needles to land there... TCAS negotiates collision-avoidance in busy airspace and generates emergency action commands for the pilots.
- falcolas 11y ago
  Military drones are also at least partially overseen by a pilot as well. When we've mastered the automation of cars, then we can start turning our eyes to be able to handle planes as well. Just like cars, automating clear and calm days is relatively simple; but most days are neither clear nor calm.
gambiting 11y ago
I don't think we are ever going to get them, frankly. Or at least not passenger planes. Machines do break down, no matter how many redundant systems you put in. You want to always have someone on board who can help, even if the plane flies by itself 100% of the time during normal operation. Unless of course, that's what you meant. I mean that planes will always have to have someone familiar with flying on board, even if that person is not doing anything most of the time.
Saad_M 11y ago
Well technology helped to eliminate the flight engineer role on modern planes. Technology could eliminate the need for a co-pilot, but the problem here is the lack of trust of having a single human in the loop. Plus the additional issues that others have mentioned e.g. pilot suicide, etc.
philjohn 11y ago
Seeing as autopilot gets disengaged when a problem is detected (inconsistent airspeed measurements from different sensors, for example) and control handed over to a human ... a fair way off I would wager.

by nvader 11y ago

nvader 11y ago

Maybe freight would be the initial area to introduce them, as the risk of loss of life is minimised.

venomsnake 11y ago
In the air. On the ground the risk is the same.
- runamok 11y ago
  Even in the US there is a whole lot of open space. And I don't think massive distribution centers are in extremely urban areas with high population density.
  - jonathankoren 11y ago
    Yeah, but where are the airports? They're inevitably in population centers. Case in point: FedEx flies into SJC, and the planes on the approach fly low over downtown, and very low over 101, since the end of the runway is right next to 101.
- bayesian_horse 11y ago
  An unmanned cargo plane could suicide in an emergency such that no human is harmed.

seanmcdirmid 11y ago

I think we are already there given that flying is a much easier task than driving. See http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/03/has-the-self-flying-plane-arrived/472005/ http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/03/has-th... As one conspiracy theory, low pilot pay could be the industry's way of forcing the issue, given the psychological barriers to completely automated flights. Additionally, partial automation leads to lots of boredom for pilots, which could detract from rather than improve safety (full automation avoids that problem). We should see it happen in our lifetimes, anyways.

davidwihl 11y ago

a long way, as there are many unpredictable unforeseen combinations of events in the sky. A much more likely scenario is single pilot commercial flights, especially for regionals, effectively doubling pilot capacity.

wannabepilot 11y ago
Maybe we'll see single pilots on short regional flights, but with pilots falling asleep and things like the Germanwings suicide I can't imagine single pilot commercial flights being the norm happen any time soon. And on longer domestic flights, pilots still need to be able to eat a meal and get up to use the bathroom.

throwaway_exer 11y ago

Despite the silly comments in this thread, we're so far away from drone airliners that the question is in the realm of science fiction because of human judgment: - airports and terminal areas are very busy - en route diversions can happen anytime due to weather observed in flight - airports like SFO can be fogged in most any day. Military drones aren't being landed in busy urban areas.

bayesian_horse 11y ago
None of these points are big obstacles. Airports may be "busy", but the system is already set up such that pilots can perform a whole flight under next-to-zero visibility. It's mainly an issue of airspace control. En route diversions are easy to handle by a rudimentary flight crew and communication equipment. The computer just needs to know the new destination and off it goes. It could even find one on its own, if all the crew is knocked out and all communications have failed. That being said, people won't trust an AI enough to make this a reality soon. Even though a system more secure than an average pilot is certainly conceivable.
dingaling 11y ago
In all three of those circumstances the human pilots are already relays, and are not really not necessary as executors. Consider the current ATC data links such as CPDCLC. The pilots read what appears on the screen and press ACCEPT to load the ATC commands into the flight management computer which instructs the autopilot. Pilots don't land in thick fog, autoland has been doing that for 50 years. If autoland self-aborts they divert to another airport and follow the ILS needles to land there... TCAS negotiates collision-avoidance in busy airspace and generates emergency action commands for the pilots.
falcolas 11y ago
Military drones are also at least partially overseen by a pilot as well. When we've mastered the automation of cars, then we can start turning our eyes to be able to handle planes as well. Just like cars, automating clear and calm days is relatively simple; but most days are neither clear nor calm.

gambiting 11y ago

I don't think we are ever going to get them, frankly. Or at least not passenger planes. Machines do break down, no matter how many redundant systems you put in. You want to always have someone on board who can help, even if the plane flies by itself 100% of the time during normal operation. Unless of course, that's what you meant. I mean that planes will always have to have someone familiar with flying on board, even if that person is not doing anything most of the time.

Saad_M 11y ago

Well technology helped to eliminate the flight engineer role on modern planes. Technology could eliminate the need for a co-pilot, but the problem here is the lack of trust of having a single human in the loop. Plus the additional issues that others have mentioned e.g. pilot suicide, etc.

philjohn 11y ago

Seeing as autopilot gets disengaged when a problem is detected (inconsistent airspeed measurements from different sensors, for example) and control handed over to a human ... a fair way off I would wager.