9 ms·

So the only ally of the US in the middle east left is Israel? That would be world war 3, for sure.

by TheLogothete 10y ago

dukoid 10y ago
Why do the US need an ally in the middle east? Allies should share values.
- TheLogothete 10y ago
  It's a tad bit more complicated than that in real world.
- dukoid 10y ago
  @TheLogothete I agree. "It's complicated" doesn't really counter any of the arguments substantially though.
- dogma1138 10y ago
  So Israel and the US don't share values now?
  - Retric 10y ago
    It's on the low end, less than Japan more than Brazil. The real issue is they don't share strategic interests largely by being on the other side of the planet.
    - dogma1138 10y ago
      I think you are confusing values with interest. EDIT: You seem to edit that part in, well if the US some how manages to strip any interests in the near east then yes they do not have that many strategic interests (outside of trade, research and industry). However as far as values go the are more or less on the same page, the only difference it's considerably more easy to commit to your values when everyone around you plays by the same rules. That said the US is probably the worse as far as it comes to actually living by their values of most western nations.
      - Retric 10y ago
        US, is fairly balanced in terms of oil trade. We don't share borders with the area. Direct trade is relatively speaking minimal as US to Israel ~1% of total US trade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_pa... We don't even ship stuff though the area. That said, our foreign policy really does not seem to reflect this. Values wise it's different cultures, languages, religious landscapes etc. Sure, nominally we are both liberal democracy's that value free markets. But, in practice things like immigration policy's demonstrate huge differences. PS: That said we do have close ties and are Israel's largest import and export partner.
    - TheLogothete 10y ago
      The US has interests in every square inch of the planet.
      - clavalle 10y ago
        Who doesn't? We all share this tiny oasis of life.
        onetimePete 10y ago
        to stay in the analogy - and some are gazelles and some are cheetahs?
- quanticle 10y ago
  Countries don't have values. Countries have interests. If the US had to wait until every country it dealt with lived up to the same level of democracy and civil rights that it reserves for its own citizens, we would have no allies outside of Europe.
  - Razengan 10y ago
    And Japan.
  - dukoid 10y ago
    The West certainly should help the ones that show the desire to improve. That's different from making the worst offenders the biggest allies though.
    - atmosx 10y ago
      > The West certainly should help the ones that show the desire to improve. That's different from making the worst offenders the biggest allies though. No shit. The ancient Athenians invented democracy but I believe the US has made exporting democracy all around the world a vocation. So many successes: Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Ukraine, Morocco. As a European I would like to ask to stop exporting democracy for at least a decade, the world needs a break, really.
      - clavalle 10y ago
        Oh, ok. We'll go ahead and save ourselves enough cash to cover the GDP of your country, then, and ramp down our military in your neck of the woods. You don't mind defending your own democracy from the likes of Vladamir Putin et. al. right? You missed a few countries on your list a bit closer to home.
        spdustin 10y ago
        Sarcasm doesn't help. I'm an American, born and raised, and I'm frankly sick and tired that the xenophobic nonsense that the more vocal of us seeks to propagate has influenced foreign opinion of all Americans. I cannot tell you how embarrassed I've been, when on foreign soil, finding myself correcting (or worse sometimes, agreeing with) their notions of what life in America is like, because life in America is different for all of us. Homogenous isn't a word that would even occur to me to describe "the American way of life". With that kind of sarcasm, you can hardly blame them. It's incendiary speech, and you do not speak for all Americans, so kindly stop using hateful and sarcastic language while sounding like you do speak for all of us. You're free to share your own brand of "'Merica" with whomever you please, but you do not speak on my behalf. Additionally, thinly veiled threats of violence, no matter how cloaked in sarcasm they may be, betray a lack of grace under pressure, and a deeper resentment than is unhealthy to be left ignored. And GP: you don't speak for all of the EU (or of Europe) either. I'm sure you meant the former because most of the rest of Europe's populace doesn't seem to give two shits about us because they have their own problems back at home.
dogma1138 10y ago
WW3 with whom?
- TheLogothete 10y ago
  A war between Israel and the Arab nations is unavoidable without the US mediating through 3rd parties (like SA). This would be an extremely large and bloody war by itself, but it will inevitably lead to hotspots in other parts of the world, like China claiming Taiwan, settling disputes India. India would want to settle disputes with Pakistan. Russia would want to claim back some part of Eastern Europe. Turkey would want something else entirely. Obviously other counties have interests too. Vietnam? The Koreas? Thailand? Indonesia? All of them have something to prove. And only god knows what would happen in Africa.
  - dogma1138 10y ago
    Israel is probably fine negotiating with the Arab states on it's own. It has a peace treaty with Jordan and Egypt, and various levels of official and unofficial relations with the Gulf states. Iran is an issue, so is the Hezbollah controlled parts of Lebanon and Syria if Assad falls is also up for grabs but with all 3 the US can't mediate anyhow. And piggy backing on this there is very little prospect for actual war between Israel and the Arab states, neither Jordan nor Egypt would go to war, there is no scenario in which Israel will some how will find it self in war with either Saudi Arabia nor the other gulf states that for the most part do not have much military presence and even less force projection. So the only thing which is left is a proxy war between Israel and Iran, which isn't exactly something you can call bloody, excluding the "war of independence" Israel longest and bloodiest war was the 'Yom Kippur' war which lasted for 19 days. If Syria falls to ISIS and or Hezbollah decides to stir things up again you might see a limited engagement in the north of Israel, which might lead to the re-establishment of a security buffer like the one during Israel's invasion into Lebanon (albeit most likely without the (South)Lebanese Army being allied with Israel this time), but there is simply no scenario in which this can escalate into anything than a meaningless regional conflict that would barely impact the daily life in Israel not to mention the world. The middle east is a powder cake indeed but Israel has little to do with it, an all out war is considerably more likely to happen between SA and Iran than even between Iran and Israel not to mention between the "Arab States" and Israel. The Arab states simply has no reason, will or ability to start a war with Israel, and Israel is not going to start a war on it's own.
Kpourdeilami 10y ago
Kurds can be a potential ally as well
- seivan 10y ago
  The communist Kurds who blame the US for all of their problems but still cry for air support? Or the Europan Kurds who are angry the US invaded iraq because their white Socialist overlords concvinced them it was bad even though it was beneficial for majority of the Kurds who didn't have the luxury of living in welfare states outside of Iraq. Point being Kurds aren't homogenous, you can't work with that. Though I suspect you mean KRG, that might work, still on the verge there.
caf 10y ago
..and Turkey (NATO member), Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait...
tomjen3 10y ago
The US can get an alley in the middle east which respect freedom of religion, freedom of minorities, allows women to serve in its military, is pro-us and has oil any time it wants. All it has to do is recognize Kurdistan. Yes it would piss of the Turkish dictator, but so what?

So the only ally of the US in the middle east left is Israel? That would be world war 3, for sure.

dukoid 10y ago

Why do the US need an ally in the middle east? Allies should share values.

TheLogothete 10y ago
It's a tad bit more complicated than that in real world.
dukoid 10y ago
@TheLogothete I agree. "It's complicated" doesn't really counter any of the arguments substantially though.
dogma1138 10y ago
So Israel and the US don't share values now?
- Retric 10y ago
  It's on the low end, less than Japan more than Brazil. The real issue is they don't share strategic interests largely by being on the other side of the planet.
  - dogma1138 10y ago
    I think you are confusing values with interest. EDIT: You seem to edit that part in, well if the US some how manages to strip any interests in the near east then yes they do not have that many strategic interests (outside of trade, research and industry). However as far as values go the are more or less on the same page, the only difference it's considerably more easy to commit to your values when everyone around you plays by the same rules. That said the US is probably the worse as far as it comes to actually living by their values of most western nations.
    - Retric 10y ago
      US, is fairly balanced in terms of oil trade. We don't share borders with the area. Direct trade is relatively speaking minimal as US to Israel ~1% of total US trade. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_pa... We don't even ship stuff though the area. That said, our foreign policy really does not seem to reflect this. Values wise it's different cultures, languages, religious landscapes etc. Sure, nominally we are both liberal democracy's that value free markets. But, in practice things like immigration policy's demonstrate huge differences. PS: That said we do have close ties and are Israel's largest import and export partner.
  - TheLogothete 10y ago
    The US has interests in every square inch of the planet.
    - clavalle 10y ago
      Who doesn't? We all share this tiny oasis of life.
      - onetimePete 10y ago
        to stay in the analogy - and some are gazelles and some are cheetahs?
quanticle 10y ago
Countries don't have values. Countries have interests. If the US had to wait until every country it dealt with lived up to the same level of democracy and civil rights that it reserves for its own citizens, we would have no allies outside of Europe.
- Razengan 10y ago
  And Japan.
- dukoid 10y ago
  The West certainly should help the ones that show the desire to improve. That's different from making the worst offenders the biggest allies though.
  - atmosx 10y ago
    > The West certainly should help the ones that show the desire to improve. That's different from making the worst offenders the biggest allies though. No shit. The ancient Athenians invented democracy but I believe the US has made exporting democracy all around the world a vocation. So many successes: Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Ukraine, Morocco. As a European I would like to ask to stop exporting democracy for at least a decade, the world needs a break, really.
    - clavalle 10y ago
      Oh, ok. We'll go ahead and save ourselves enough cash to cover the GDP of your country, then, and ramp down our military in your neck of the woods. You don't mind defending your own democracy from the likes of Vladamir Putin et. al. right? You missed a few countries on your list a bit closer to home.
      - spdustin 10y ago
        Sarcasm doesn't help. I'm an American, born and raised, and I'm frankly sick and tired that the xenophobic nonsense that the more vocal of us seeks to propagate has influenced foreign opinion of all Americans. I cannot tell you how embarrassed I've been, when on foreign soil, finding myself correcting (or worse sometimes, agreeing with) their notions of what life in America is like, because life in America is different for all of us. Homogenous isn't a word that would even occur to me to describe "the American way of life". With that kind of sarcasm, you can hardly blame them. It's incendiary speech, and you do not speak for all Americans, so kindly stop using hateful and sarcastic language while sounding like you do speak for all of us. You're free to share your own brand of "'Merica" with whomever you please, but you do not speak on my behalf. Additionally, thinly veiled threats of violence, no matter how cloaked in sarcasm they may be, betray a lack of grace under pressure, and a deeper resentment than is unhealthy to be left ignored. And GP: you don't speak for all of the EU (or of Europe) either. I'm sure you meant the former because most of the rest of Europe's populace doesn't seem to give two shits about us because they have their own problems back at home.

dogma1138 10y ago

WW3 with whom?

TheLogothete 10y ago
A war between Israel and the Arab nations is unavoidable without the US mediating through 3rd parties (like SA). This would be an extremely large and bloody war by itself, but it will inevitably lead to hotspots in other parts of the world, like China claiming Taiwan, settling disputes India. India would want to settle disputes with Pakistan. Russia would want to claim back some part of Eastern Europe. Turkey would want something else entirely. Obviously other counties have interests too. Vietnam? The Koreas? Thailand? Indonesia? All of them have something to prove. And only god knows what would happen in Africa.
- dogma1138 10y ago
  Israel is probably fine negotiating with the Arab states on it's own. It has a peace treaty with Jordan and Egypt, and various levels of official and unofficial relations with the Gulf states. Iran is an issue, so is the Hezbollah controlled parts of Lebanon and Syria if Assad falls is also up for grabs but with all 3 the US can't mediate anyhow. And piggy backing on this there is very little prospect for actual war between Israel and the Arab states, neither Jordan nor Egypt would go to war, there is no scenario in which Israel will some how will find it self in war with either Saudi Arabia nor the other gulf states that for the most part do not have much military presence and even less force projection. So the only thing which is left is a proxy war between Israel and Iran, which isn't exactly something you can call bloody, excluding the "war of independence" Israel longest and bloodiest war was the 'Yom Kippur' war which lasted for 19 days. If Syria falls to ISIS and or Hezbollah decides to stir things up again you might see a limited engagement in the north of Israel, which might lead to the re-establishment of a security buffer like the one during Israel's invasion into Lebanon (albeit most likely without the (South)Lebanese Army being allied with Israel this time), but there is simply no scenario in which this can escalate into anything than a meaningless regional conflict that would barely impact the daily life in Israel not to mention the world. The middle east is a powder cake indeed but Israel has little to do with it, an all out war is considerably more likely to happen between SA and Iran than even between Iran and Israel not to mention between the "Arab States" and Israel. The Arab states simply has no reason, will or ability to start a war with Israel, and Israel is not going to start a war on it's own.

Kpourdeilami 10y ago

Kurds can be a potential ally as well

seivan 10y ago
The communist Kurds who blame the US for all of their problems but still cry for air support? Or the Europan Kurds who are angry the US invaded iraq because their white Socialist overlords concvinced them it was bad even though it was beneficial for majority of the Kurds who didn't have the luxury of living in welfare states outside of Iraq. Point being Kurds aren't homogenous, you can't work with that. Though I suspect you mean KRG, that might work, still on the verge there.

caf 10y ago

..and Turkey (NATO member), Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait...

tomjen3 10y ago

The US can get an alley in the middle east which respect freedom of religion, freedom of minorities, allows women to serve in its military, is pro-us and has oil any time it wants. All it has to do is recognize Kurdistan. Yes it would piss of the Turkish dictator, but so what?