6 ms·

The reality of AR/VR business models

52 points by chermanowicz 10y ago

ryandamm 10y ago
Quick caveat, this is written by the same firm (Digi-Capital) that came out with a totally preposterous estimate (on the high side) for the market potential and uptake speed of VR. So, you know, grain of salt; the Digi-Capital numbers were followed by much more sane (and significantly smaller) numbers from Piper Jaffray and others. Digi-Capital then revised their numbers so they didn't look like quite such an outlier.
- mc32 10y ago
  They can't have been as far off as Intel (and HP) were with Itanium. Any year now...
btown 10y ago
Just in case you think the article wasn't expansive enough in the possibilities for AR/VR business models, I'll just leave this here: http://www.varcrypt.com/info/ http://www.varcrypt.com/info/ > VARcrypt is the world's first blockchain content distribution platform designed specifically for VR (Virtual Reality) and AR (Augmented Reality) content. VARcrypt derives its name from a combination of both VR (Virtual Reality) and AR (Augmented Reality) resulting in the combination of VAR which when mixed with a cryptographic blockchain content distribution and payment processing protocol combines to create VARcrypt. VARcrypt's blockchain will be powered by its own proprietary cryptocurrency, VARcoin. VARcoin will become its own medium of exchange for goods and services within the VARcrypt blockchain universe and beyond. > The future of media will not be either VR or AR, it will be both, it will be VAR and that future will be brought to you by VARcrypt. VARcrypt is a place for artists, a place for content, a place for the future, because at VARcrypt we are breaking everything. Sometimes I just love the startup world.
- pythondz 10y ago
  As you implied, we're gonna see a bunch of scammer... I hope that they will not deteriorate the VR / AR image
- josephpmay 10y ago
  This is parody, right?
  - btown 10y ago
    Nope, a real company hosting an event with the Harvard Business School Club of New York this month. Whether it should be parody is entirely a matter of opinion.
  - golergka 10y ago
    > VARcrypt is a place for artists, a place for content, a place for the future, because at VARcrypt we are breaking everything. It has to be.
- te_chris 10y ago
  An 'untraceable' currency for buying digital kink to be consumed in the privacy of one's headset. Sounds like the future to me.
- colincarter41 10y ago
  Varcrypt is under development. Interested to know about new VR gadgets, When will it be available?
  - radiorental 10y ago
    It will be available in the future where every medium is divided between AR & VR by artists for artists.
    - colincarter41 10y ago
      I am waiting!! I am wondering everybody is talking about AR & VR, but what about the Word "Reality". Most of the people are turning toward VR.
Animats 10y ago
"AR/VR is the fourth major platform shift (after PC, web and mobile)." Or maybe VR is just the next 3D TV. Remember 3D TV? 3D TV viewership peaked in 2013. Samsung killed off their entire 3D line in 2016.[1] Some other manufacturers still make them, but they're not selling. We've already had AR. It was called "Google Glass". [1] http://www.whathifi.com/news/samsung-announces-15-new-tv-ranges-2016-kills-3d http://www.whathifi.com/news/samsung-announces-15-new-tv-ran...
- dcw303 10y ago
  Yes, 3D TV was a failure, but I still hold out a little hope that someone will get VR/AR right. Saying that AR has failed in 2016 because Google Glass could be like saying MP3 players failed because Creative Nomad in early 2001. Not that it has to be Apple, but someone has to come up with an angle that is innovative if these technologies are going to make an impact. That all said and hindsight being 20/20, the thing that 3D TV, AR, and VR have in common is that it is the collective willpower of the bleeding edge evangelists alone that is powering discussion. Real tech innovations are immediately recognized as game changers by the general public.
  - Animats 10y ago
    There may be niche applications, but people spending their days in Oculus Rift headsets is not likely to happen. (Even in SF, that only showed up in the 1980 Flash Gordon movie.)
    - scient 10y ago
      You should give these headsets a shot and try them out. Also I'm not sure you know how the real world works... Gamers alone will wear these headsets for extended periods of time.
    - haydenlee 10y ago
      Because... Why? I sometimes spend 8 hours at a time in my Rift.
    - 10y ago
cm2187 10y ago
I can still think of a few challenges. First, like the Apple Watch, I do not think that consumers are keen to wear more objects every day. So this is a first challenge to AR being something we carry all the day like a mobile. The fact that it looks cool to a few techies doesn't warrant wide adoption. Two, as it is, they require a lot of computing power. Computers aren't really getting any faster. Engraving may get a little thinner but I understand the physical limits are in sight. Will these things really become so power efficient that they become portable? Then you have motion sickness which has more to do with the fact that we do not move while our eyes are telling us we are moving. This is something structural to VR. Though this should only apply to non static scenarios. But if you are sitting and using VR to work on a peripheral screen, if done well that shouldn't induce motion sickness. I would be tempted to consider the experience of 3D TVs as a warning. It's not obvious to me VR will be such a big thing, outside of video games for a limited time per day.
- majewsky 10y ago
  > So this is a first challenge to AR being something we carry all the day like a mobile. The fact that it looks cool to a few techies doesn't warrant wide adoption. This fits with the article hinting at smartphone capabilities being integrated in AR/VR headsets. I would like a device that looks like normal glasses but can display images on the inside of the glasses to create an AR or VR experience when the user wishes to do so. Like Google Glass, but not as obnoxious. If that thing can replace my smartphone, sign me up. (The most important feature would be an easily triggered silent mode where it does not pop notifications into my eyesight while I'm socializing or focussing.)
  - cm2187 10y ago
    I don't know. I stopped wearing glasses a few years ago and I don't miss them. It's not just a technological decision.
kriro 10y ago
I think the enterprise chunk is too small in the info graphic. I envision a pretty huge market, especially for AR. There are very few AR applications that seem viable from a business model POV right now. The ones that are pretty easy to spot tend to be in the enterprise world. It seems like a very valuable technology along the entire supply chain from R&D (for building machines, automobiles etc.) to distribution (try on this dress in AR = less returns = higher margins; we can offer this kitchen sink service online now with AR instructions). AR is in fact already used and generating value in some enterprisy field, specifically marketing (mostly just "ZOMG cool" branding) and in logistics (dedicated AR glasses for warehousing)
- Natanael_L 10y ago
  AR glasses that understand mirrors and with a good physics engine could do wonders for the fashion industry. You could try out clothes and accessories and anything else in front of any mirror and get incredibly realistic renders of how you'd look. You could even experiment with different colors trivially. It could even render multiple alternatives next to each other. And you could be assisted just like normally by a sales person who can give you personal advice and suggestions. Just about anything involving design could benefit beyond fashion as well, like being able to try different colors or other customizations on a car, or with furniture, etc. In fact you could even get live remote assistance with this like home decoration and layouts, getting suggestions with live renders for what to place where. Or that same service but for gardening. Then there's IRL MMORPG, LARP:s would never be the same again. Imagine Ingress with AR.
  - adrianN 10y ago
    It's a lot easier to replace the mirror with a screen. You can cram a lot more CPU power into something the size of a mirror that doesn't have to run on tiny batteries. The fact that such "mirrors" are not widespread yet indicates that the tech either isn't there yet or that it's just simpler to try on the dress.
    - Natanael_L 10y ago
TuringTest 10y ago
Every time AR is discussed, I link to the CC-BY-NC comic Vision Machine.[1] As all good SF, it describes current trends with a veneer of future technology; I find that it offers insight on a lot of use cases for AR and VR. [1] http://visionmachine.net/ http://visionmachine.net/
wooteeni 10y ago
The biggest problem with AR/VR/MR is the UX. There are a lot of quite awful marker tracking apps (I am looking at you Blippar) which are useless. Yes you could see what a sofa _may_ look like... But the rendering of the Sofa is off, the lighting is weird and the scale most likely incorrect. Or yea... lets look at this advert for longer... like anyone wants to do that... All these apps do is devalue peoples perception of these mediums. For this medium to succeed they need HQ apps which add to a users experience, not distract them and most importantly... have a fun factor. Another problem is how do you take these experiences from a mobile / glasses to a web browser (currently Javascript is a bit too slow to run custom tracking solutions)...
arca_vorago 10y ago
While not specifically about the business model, where I really think that both will shine is in encouraging a separation of user from chair, getting them active and possible even turning AR/VR into a fitness movement. I've been working on the side on a UE4 based game, and as I realize the potential for it's use in fitness, especially with Vive style roomspace-play, the more I think it will be a huge industry of VR fitness. Maybe I can ride that wave, maybe not, but I hope to see it regardless.
- Natanael_L 10y ago
  Competitive puzzle games that require you to do exercises well? "Zombies, run!" or other zombie games where you have to escape by actually running?
  - arca_vorago 10y ago
    More along the lines of virtual bootcamp for a semi-realistic sci-fi sword and gun play sandbox world.
intrasight 10y ago
The forecast is also leaving out this important application: playing Chevette Washington looking down upon San Francisco to see the city as it will be rebuilt by the tech titans mentioned. Honestly, I would pay for that.
- stuxnet79 10y ago
  Incredible that Virtual Light was written more than 20 years ago. How prescient it was ... Funny thing with its rising real estate prices and large number of bums (I hear), San Fran is turning into exactly what Gibson envisioned.

52 points by chermanowicz 10y ago

Quick caveat, this is written by the same firm (Digi-Capital) that came out with a totally preposterous estimate (on the high side) for the market potential and uptake speed of VR. So, you know, grain of salt; the Digi-Capital numbers were followed by much more sane (and significantly smaller) numbers from Piper Jaffray and others. Digi-Capital then revised their numbers so they didn't look like quite such an outlier.

mc32 10y ago
They can't have been as far off as Intel (and HP) were with Itanium. Any year now...

btown 10y ago

Just in case you think the article wasn't expansive enough in the possibilities for AR/VR business models, I'll just leave this here: http://www.varcrypt.com/info/ http://www.varcrypt.com/info/ > VARcrypt is the world's first blockchain content distribution platform designed specifically for VR (Virtual Reality) and AR (Augmented Reality) content. VARcrypt derives its name from a combination of both VR (Virtual Reality) and AR (Augmented Reality) resulting in the combination of VAR which when mixed with a cryptographic blockchain content distribution and payment processing protocol combines to create VARcrypt. VARcrypt's blockchain will be powered by its own proprietary cryptocurrency, VARcoin. VARcoin will become its own medium of exchange for goods and services within the VARcrypt blockchain universe and beyond. > The future of media will not be either VR or AR, it will be both, it will be VAR and that future will be brought to you by VARcrypt. VARcrypt is a place for artists, a place for content, a place for the future, because at VARcrypt we are breaking everything. Sometimes I just love the startup world.

pythondz 10y ago
As you implied, we're gonna see a bunch of scammer... I hope that they will not deteriorate the VR / AR image
josephpmay 10y ago
This is parody, right?
- btown 10y ago
  Nope, a real company hosting an event with the Harvard Business School Club of New York this month. Whether it should be parody is entirely a matter of opinion.
- golergka 10y ago
  > VARcrypt is a place for artists, a place for content, a place for the future, because at VARcrypt we are breaking everything. It has to be.
te_chris 10y ago
An 'untraceable' currency for buying digital kink to be consumed in the privacy of one's headset. Sounds like the future to me.
colincarter41 10y ago
Varcrypt is under development. Interested to know about new VR gadgets, When will it be available?
- radiorental 10y ago
  It will be available in the future where every medium is divided between AR & VR by artists for artists.
  - colincarter41 10y ago
    I am waiting!! I am wondering everybody is talking about AR & VR, but what about the Word "Reality". Most of the people are turning toward VR.

Animats 10y ago

"AR/VR is the fourth major platform shift (after PC, web and mobile)." Or maybe VR is just the next 3D TV. Remember 3D TV? 3D TV viewership peaked in 2013. Samsung killed off their entire 3D line in 2016.[1] Some other manufacturers still make them, but they're not selling. We've already had AR. It was called "Google Glass". [1] http://www.whathifi.com/news/samsung-announces-15-new-tv-ranges-2016-kills-3d http://www.whathifi.com/news/samsung-announces-15-new-tv-ran...

dcw303 10y ago
Yes, 3D TV was a failure, but I still hold out a little hope that someone will get VR/AR right. Saying that AR has failed in 2016 because Google Glass could be like saying MP3 players failed because Creative Nomad in early 2001. Not that it has to be Apple, but someone has to come up with an angle that is innovative if these technologies are going to make an impact. That all said and hindsight being 20/20, the thing that 3D TV, AR, and VR have in common is that it is the collective willpower of the bleeding edge evangelists alone that is powering discussion. Real tech innovations are immediately recognized as game changers by the general public.
- Animats 10y ago
  There may be niche applications, but people spending their days in Oculus Rift headsets is not likely to happen. (Even in SF, that only showed up in the 1980 Flash Gordon movie.)
  - scient 10y ago
    You should give these headsets a shot and try them out. Also I'm not sure you know how the real world works... Gamers alone will wear these headsets for extended periods of time.
  - haydenlee 10y ago
    Because... Why? I sometimes spend 8 hours at a time in my Rift.
  - 10y ago

cm2187 10y ago

I can still think of a few challenges. First, like the Apple Watch, I do not think that consumers are keen to wear more objects every day. So this is a first challenge to AR being something we carry all the day like a mobile. The fact that it looks cool to a few techies doesn't warrant wide adoption. Two, as it is, they require a lot of computing power. Computers aren't really getting any faster. Engraving may get a little thinner but I understand the physical limits are in sight. Will these things really become so power efficient that they become portable? Then you have motion sickness which has more to do with the fact that we do not move while our eyes are telling us we are moving. This is something structural to VR. Though this should only apply to non static scenarios. But if you are sitting and using VR to work on a peripheral screen, if done well that shouldn't induce motion sickness. I would be tempted to consider the experience of 3D TVs as a warning. It's not obvious to me VR will be such a big thing, outside of video games for a limited time per day.

majewsky 10y ago
> So this is a first challenge to AR being something we carry all the day like a mobile. The fact that it looks cool to a few techies doesn't warrant wide adoption. This fits with the article hinting at smartphone capabilities being integrated in AR/VR headsets. I would like a device that looks like normal glasses but can display images on the inside of the glasses to create an AR or VR experience when the user wishes to do so. Like Google Glass, but not as obnoxious. If that thing can replace my smartphone, sign me up. (The most important feature would be an easily triggered silent mode where it does not pop notifications into my eyesight while I'm socializing or focussing.)
- cm2187 10y ago
  I don't know. I stopped wearing glasses a few years ago and I don't miss them. It's not just a technological decision.

kriro 10y ago

I think the enterprise chunk is too small in the info graphic. I envision a pretty huge market, especially for AR. There are very few AR applications that seem viable from a business model POV right now. The ones that are pretty easy to spot tend to be in the enterprise world. It seems like a very valuable technology along the entire supply chain from R&D (for building machines, automobiles etc.) to distribution (try on this dress in AR = less returns = higher margins; we can offer this kitchen sink service online now with AR instructions). AR is in fact already used and generating value in some enterprisy field, specifically marketing (mostly just "ZOMG cool" branding) and in logistics (dedicated AR glasses for warehousing)

Natanael_L 10y ago
AR glasses that understand mirrors and with a good physics engine could do wonders for the fashion industry. You could try out clothes and accessories and anything else in front of any mirror and get incredibly realistic renders of how you'd look. You could even experiment with different colors trivially. It could even render multiple alternatives next to each other. And you could be assisted just like normally by a sales person who can give you personal advice and suggestions. Just about anything involving design could benefit beyond fashion as well, like being able to try different colors or other customizations on a car, or with furniture, etc. In fact you could even get live remote assistance with this like home decoration and layouts, getting suggestions with live renders for what to place where. Or that same service but for gardening. Then there's IRL MMORPG, LARP:s would never be the same again. Imagine Ingress with AR.
- adrianN 10y ago
  It's a lot easier to replace the mirror with a screen. You can cram a lot more CPU power into something the size of a mirror that doesn't have to run on tiny batteries. The fact that such "mirrors" are not widespread yet indicates that the tech either isn't there yet or that it's just simpler to try on the dress.
  - Natanael_L 10y ago

TuringTest 10y ago

Every time AR is discussed, I link to the CC-BY-NC comic Vision Machine.[1] As all good SF, it describes current trends with a veneer of future technology; I find that it offers insight on a lot of use cases for AR and VR. [1] http://visionmachine.net/ http://visionmachine.net/

wooteeni 10y ago

The biggest problem with AR/VR/MR is the UX. There are a lot of quite awful marker tracking apps (I am looking at you Blippar) which are useless. Yes you could see what a sofa _may_ look like... But the rendering of the Sofa is off, the lighting is weird and the scale most likely incorrect. Or yea... lets look at this advert for longer... like anyone wants to do that... All these apps do is devalue peoples perception of these mediums. For this medium to succeed they need HQ apps which add to a users experience, not distract them and most importantly... have a fun factor. Another problem is how do you take these experiences from a mobile / glasses to a web browser (currently Javascript is a bit too slow to run custom tracking solutions)...

arca_vorago 10y ago

While not specifically about the business model, where I really think that both will shine is in encouraging a separation of user from chair, getting them active and possible even turning AR/VR into a fitness movement. I've been working on the side on a UE4 based game, and as I realize the potential for it's use in fitness, especially with Vive style roomspace-play, the more I think it will be a huge industry of VR fitness. Maybe I can ride that wave, maybe not, but I hope to see it regardless.

Natanael_L 10y ago
Competitive puzzle games that require you to do exercises well? "Zombies, run!" or other zombie games where you have to escape by actually running?
- arca_vorago 10y ago
  More along the lines of virtual bootcamp for a semi-realistic sci-fi sword and gun play sandbox world.

intrasight 10y ago

The forecast is also leaving out this important application: playing Chevette Washington looking down upon San Francisco to see the city as it will be rebuilt by the tech titans mentioned. Honestly, I would pay for that.

stuxnet79 10y ago
Incredible that Virtual Light was written more than 20 years ago. How prescient it was ... Funny thing with its rising real estate prices and large number of bums (I hear), San Fran is turning into exactly what Gibson envisioned.