4 ms·

I think bigger news here is for US citizens. US consistently denied visa-free travel for a lot of EU countries, including poland

by fijal 11y ago

JustSomeNobody 11y ago
comeuppance?
- jerf 11y ago
  That's an egocentric view. The winds of the world are shifting and it isn't all about the US. It has played its part in the drama, but it isn't even remotely the only player or even necessarily the prime mover anymore.
  - adventured 11y ago
    I find that very interesting. What winds exactly do you think have changed such that the US isn't the prime mover now? When I look around the world, I don't see any reason to agree with your premise. The US has an $18 trillion economy - 80% larger than China - with 43% of all global wealth, the fifth highest GDP per capita, and dominates militarily almost as much as it ever has (outside of the brief stretch from 1990-2003 when Russia was particularly weak). I look at Latin America, Brazil is in a depression that is worsening (20 year set-back at least), and Venezuela has collapsed. So there's no challenge there from changing winds. Most of Africa is getting better gradually, and that's tremendous news for them, however that's no challenge to the US prime mover status. Japan is in much worse shape relative to the US than it was 25 years ago. In about six or seven years, the US will have double the GDP per capita of Japan, as they continue to aggressively debase the Yen to try to remain solvent. South Korea is no stronger relative to the US than they were in the mid 1990s. There are no other challengers to the US outside of China in Asia. India is rising, but they're no challenge to the dominant position the US has in the world. Maybe in 30 years if everything goes really well, they'll challenge China as an Asian power. Singapore has a great economy, but they're tiny. Vietnam and several other Asian countries will likely keep improving, but they're mostly a regional challenge for China, the US will benefit from them improving (it will take industry away from China). Half of Europe is either broken economically or otherwise very poor. I could go down through each country and lay out their economic and political problems, but it's not necessary. Most of Europe has lost ground relative to the US on economy and military, that includes France, Spain, Italy, Britain. Overall the US is stronger today economically and militarily compared to Europe, than it was a decade ago. Where's the wind shift when it comes to Europe vs the US? There has been none. The Eurozone for example is a disaster, that hasn't seen economic growth in nearly a decade. Scandinavia is doing ok (other than their vast household debt problems and Finland's depression), but what else? And they're not a challenge to the US. Germany has been unable to grow its economy almost at all since 2008 (the US has almost added an economy the size of Germany in that time). Russia is a non-issue as a challenger to the US. They're extremely weak now, with oil on the way out permanently, which will cripple their fossil fuel dependent economy for the next several decades at least. Their economy is 1/12th the size of the US economy now. Russia is now a regional player, a thorn in the side of Western Europe, with a median income that has fallen below much of Eastern Europe. I go down the list, country by country, examining the situation, and the relative strength of each compared to the US. What winds have changed?
    - jerf 11y ago
      Listing all the ways in which various bits of the world relates to the US is entirely missing my point. All the bits of the world relate to each other directly as well. Not all of those relations are the US's fault or responsibility. Visa decisions are not being made around the world solely in relation to the current state of the United States. In fact, despite occasional rhetoric to the contrary, the US probably the least of concerns relating to those decisions; nobody is facing immanent social changes caused by incoming US immigration or fearing terrorist attacks from US citizens. (You can and should debate whether the US government's foreign policy is good or bad, but on the whole US citizens are individually well-behaved.) For example, Shengen is not collapsing because the US is out there agitating for it to come down. Oh, sure, trace the root causes and responsibility weaves in and out of US actions, but it's a complex tapestry and, again, a bit egocentric to specially privilege US actions in that rich tapestry.
      - adventured 11y ago
        I don't disagree with most of what you said. I consider the US to be merely one of the many big influences in the world, and it's blatantly the dominant one by a wide margin - by almost any metric we can name. However I fail to see how the US has a weaker position in terms of its dominance / prime mover status, than it did 10, 20, or 30 years ago. There has been no actual fundamental shift. For example, the US share of global GDP is unchanged over the last 30 years - despite China's vast GDP gains over that time (meaning the US had to grow a lot to keep its position, while other former major powers lost ground). China has essentially taken the place of the USSR as a strength counter to the US. Calling something egocentric isn't an actual counter-point (what does it have to do with whether something is factually correct or not?), it's an argument from intimidation. The only purpose it serves is to try to embarrass the other side of the discussion (since many people consider ego to be shameful; I obviously don't agree with that).
skocznymroczny 11y ago
Note that for most EU countries US offers visa waiver, which still requires filling out some forms online before the trip and a payment. US citizens can just come to EU whenever they want to.

I think bigger news here is for US citizens. US consistently denied visa-free travel for a lot of EU countries, including poland

by fijal 11y ago

I think bigger news here is for US citizens. US consistently denied visa-free travel for a lot of EU countries, including poland

JustSomeNobody 11y ago

comeuppance?

jerf 11y ago
That's an egocentric view. The winds of the world are shifting and it isn't all about the US. It has played its part in the drama, but it isn't even remotely the only player or even necessarily the prime mover anymore.
- adventured 11y ago
  I find that very interesting. What winds exactly do you think have changed such that the US isn't the prime mover now? When I look around the world, I don't see any reason to agree with your premise. The US has an $18 trillion economy - 80% larger than China - with 43% of all global wealth, the fifth highest GDP per capita, and dominates militarily almost as much as it ever has (outside of the brief stretch from 1990-2003 when Russia was particularly weak). I look at Latin America, Brazil is in a depression that is worsening (20 year set-back at least), and Venezuela has collapsed. So there's no challenge there from changing winds. Most of Africa is getting better gradually, and that's tremendous news for them, however that's no challenge to the US prime mover status. Japan is in much worse shape relative to the US than it was 25 years ago. In about six or seven years, the US will have double the GDP per capita of Japan, as they continue to aggressively debase the Yen to try to remain solvent. South Korea is no stronger relative to the US than they were in the mid 1990s. There are no other challengers to the US outside of China in Asia. India is rising, but they're no challenge to the dominant position the US has in the world. Maybe in 30 years if everything goes really well, they'll challenge China as an Asian power. Singapore has a great economy, but they're tiny. Vietnam and several other Asian countries will likely keep improving, but they're mostly a regional challenge for China, the US will benefit from them improving (it will take industry away from China). Half of Europe is either broken economically or otherwise very poor. I could go down through each country and lay out their economic and political problems, but it's not necessary. Most of Europe has lost ground relative to the US on economy and military, that includes France, Spain, Italy, Britain. Overall the US is stronger today economically and militarily compared to Europe, than it was a decade ago. Where's the wind shift when it comes to Europe vs the US? There has been none. The Eurozone for example is a disaster, that hasn't seen economic growth in nearly a decade. Scandinavia is doing ok (other than their vast household debt problems and Finland's depression), but what else? And they're not a challenge to the US. Germany has been unable to grow its economy almost at all since 2008 (the US has almost added an economy the size of Germany in that time). Russia is a non-issue as a challenger to the US. They're extremely weak now, with oil on the way out permanently, which will cripple their fossil fuel dependent economy for the next several decades at least. Their economy is 1/12th the size of the US economy now. Russia is now a regional player, a thorn in the side of Western Europe, with a median income that has fallen below much of Eastern Europe. I go down the list, country by country, examining the situation, and the relative strength of each compared to the US. What winds have changed?
  - jerf 11y ago
    Listing all the ways in which various bits of the world relates to the US is entirely missing my point. All the bits of the world relate to each other directly as well. Not all of those relations are the US's fault or responsibility. Visa decisions are not being made around the world solely in relation to the current state of the United States. In fact, despite occasional rhetoric to the contrary, the US probably the least of concerns relating to those decisions; nobody is facing immanent social changes caused by incoming US immigration or fearing terrorist attacks from US citizens. (You can and should debate whether the US government's foreign policy is good or bad, but on the whole US citizens are individually well-behaved.) For example, Shengen is not collapsing because the US is out there agitating for it to come down. Oh, sure, trace the root causes and responsibility weaves in and out of US actions, but it's a complex tapestry and, again, a bit egocentric to specially privilege US actions in that rich tapestry.
    - adventured 11y ago
      I don't disagree with most of what you said. I consider the US to be merely one of the many big influences in the world, and it's blatantly the dominant one by a wide margin - by almost any metric we can name. However I fail to see how the US has a weaker position in terms of its dominance / prime mover status, than it did 10, 20, or 30 years ago. There has been no actual fundamental shift. For example, the US share of global GDP is unchanged over the last 30 years - despite China's vast GDP gains over that time (meaning the US had to grow a lot to keep its position, while other former major powers lost ground). China has essentially taken the place of the USSR as a strength counter to the US. Calling something egocentric isn't an actual counter-point (what does it have to do with whether something is factually correct or not?), it's an argument from intimidation. The only purpose it serves is to try to embarrass the other side of the discussion (since many people consider ego to be shameful; I obviously don't agree with that).

skocznymroczny 11y ago

Note that for most EU countries US offers visa waiver, which still requires filling out some forms online before the trip and a payment. US citizens can just come to EU whenever they want to.