40 ms·

It's a Tesla

344 points by ghosh 11y ago

mikeash 11y ago
"And yes, Tesla has a history of delivering cars late and with a higher price than expected." The article closes with a similar sentiment. I see this a lot, and I wonder where it comes from. Late, no question, but higher price? I think the Roadster may have had a price increase, but both the Model S and Model X hit their price targets. I think there's a lot of confusion because prices are sometimes quoted with the Federal tax credit (and even state credits in some cases) and sometimes without, and because the Model S 40 was discontinued pretty much immediately due to low demand. I won't be at all shocked if the Model 3 ends up being late. But I think it's a safe bet that it will cost $35,000 as announced.
- gr3yh47 11y ago
  Beyond that, people keep acting like the price will never go down from the launch price, which is obviously not the case.
  - jsight 11y ago
    It may go down in relation to inflation, but I kind of doubt that it will ever go down in price in a literal sense. 35k seems to be the right price.
    - gr3yh47 11y ago
      both the Roadster and Model S prices were nontrivially reduced over their production lifetimes. It's built into Tesla's business plan.
- pchristensen 11y ago
  Most Model S's sell for waaaaay more than the list price, because they're bought by wealthy people that pile on the options. It's a safe bet that most $35k Model 3's will sell for $45k+ for the same reason.
  - mikeash 11y ago
    No doubt, but that's completely unrelated.
  - stepanhruda 11y ago
    The average price from all the bookings is ~$42k.
    - jcdavis 11y ago
      That was Elon's estimate - they haven't released any details on what any of the options/configurations will look like, just the base price of $35k.
    - mikeash 11y ago
      Elon Musk posted a guess that the average Model 3 configuration will cost about that much. There is no average price from the bookings, as the bookings are just a $1,000 option to purchase, and no options pricing or configurations have been made available yet.
- codeulike 11y ago
  Partly this is to do with the $50,000 Model S that everyone has forgotten about now. Tesla said the base price of Model S would be $50,000. They did actually make such a car available, but it only had a 40KWH battery pack and so very few people ordered it. Consequently they gave up selling it and made the base model the 60KWH one instead. People that had ordered a 40KWH Tesla actually got a software-limited 60KWH one instead because it wasn't worth it for Tesla to make a different battery. http://jalopnik.com/laptesla-kills-the-50-000-model-s-makes-the-media-the-464831618 http://jalopnik.com/laptesla-kills-the-50-000-model-s-makes-... edit: oh sorry you already mentioned that
  - lijason 11y ago
    Yep. The $50K model felt like it was hitting a price point rather than it being the car that people would actually want. Even if most travel would fit in that 40KWH range, no one at that point wanted to risk it. I'm curious what will be included in the $35K Model 3 and what will differentiate it from the higher speced models. I think that will indicate if this is "really" a $35K car.
    - codeulike 11y ago
      Well he's outlined the baseline: 215 mile range for $35k. And it looks like it'll have the touchscreen and the safety features from autopilot. It probably wont have free supercharging. In the unveil he said even the basic model will be a 'really good car'.
      - lijason 11y ago
        Yep, sorry. Meant to say that's the first thing I looked at from the announcement. 215 mile range is probably good enough. I think the definition of "really good car" will be the question. I think it could easily be argued that the smaller battery model S was a "good car" but the market spoke differently. Really exciting regardless.
mmastrac 11y ago
Tesla had to first build the market for their electric vehicles by proving that they were powerful enough to satisfy the "petrolheads". Even starting at the high end, they had trouble breaking through the public perception [1], but nowhere near as much as if they had started at the low-end (IMO). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Top_Gear_controversies#Tesla_Roadster_review https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Top_Gear_controversies#Tesla_R...
- vvanders 11y ago
  Yup, that's the most incredible part about the whole thing to me, bootstrapping a market that didn't existing in such a high capital industry.
rwmj 11y ago
Oddly I'm in the market for a "neighbourhood electric vehicle" - a cheap, limited, electric car that can get two people to the station and back daily (a distance of around 4 miles). There are really no good options. The closest is probably the Renault Twizy, essentially an enclosed electric bike with 4 wheels. It's very expensive, and more worryingly there are lots and lots of them available on the second hand market, almost new, at greatly reduced prices.
- glaberficken 11y ago
  I suggest getting 2 electrically assisted bicycles for that use case (if you are able to park them in a secure place).
  - rwmj 11y ago
    Yes, I have (an) e-bike. Lots of fun in summer, not so much in winter.
    - sliverstorm 11y ago
      How rural are you? Is biking crappy because of snow & ice? In which case, can you get away with a quad in the winter?
      - rwmj 11y ago
        Rural, and we'd expect snow/ice in a normal winter, but this year we didn't get any at all. I was thinking more about a covered vehicle. The Twizy is (to a degree) covered, although the basic models lack side doors.
  - tromp 11y ago
    Dutch bike company Vanmoof just launched a new invisibly electric bike that can be pre-ordered at https://preorder.vanmoof.com/?ct-referral-code=nw5wFevx https://preorder.vanmoof.com/?ct-referral-code=nw5wFevx (shameless referral link they provided when I ordered mine)
ryanmarsh 11y ago
> General Motors first unveiled the Chevy Bolt as a concept car in January 2015... > As Pam Fletcher, GM’s executive chief engineer for electric vehicles, recently put it to me with a confident grin: “Who wants to be second?” Yah but... it's a GM. I own the finest luxury automobile GM makes, the Cadillac Escalade. It is a chrome lined bucket of bolts. If they can't do this right how can they do a $25k car right? As I type this my GM is in the shop RN with a hard to reproduce transmission issue. Oh and it cost as much as a Model S. o_O OTOH the Model S is the most well manufactured anything I've ever sat in. It boggles my mind why anyone would buy a second GM. They've had enough time to get it right. Instead they've a consistent track record of mediocrity with an epic failure about every decade. Tesla tho... All I can say is, the people baffled by Tesla's success can't have spent much time behind the wheel of a Model S. I didn't realize how much cars suck, even luxury cars, till I spent a day driving an S up and down the PCH.
- gist 11y ago
  > I own the finest luxury automobile GM makes, the Cadillac Escalade. It is a chrome lined bucket of bolts. I feel the same way. Thought briefly about getting a new Corvette. Have had several 911's and other Porsches. Just can't wrap my head around buying a Chevy. When I was a kid it was all the rage (long long time ago). So was Porsche for that matter and Mercedes had just broken into the luxury market here (mid 70's).
  - kerryfalk 11y ago
    The new C7 'vette is leaps and bounds ahead of the previous generations. It's not the same as you might expect from other performance vehicles in terms of fit and finish but it is quite a bit better than what they used to produce and you'd be hard pressed to find a better bang for your buck. With that said, I personally chose to spend more for a very boisterous German muscle car...
  - mikestew 11y ago
    The C7 is the first 'vette ever that made me say, "I'd like to own one of those" when I first saw it. Then my Mom bought one. She just bought it a few months back, so I can't vouch for long-term reliability, but $50K buys one hell of a sports car. Currently the best go-fast value out there, IMO. (And just like every other car out there, the in-dash software sucks, but that's mitigated by it having Car Play.)
paulsutter 11y ago
Lithium Ion battery prices have come down 40% since 2010 (see third graph[1]), and that is /caused/ by the increasing demand (it's called a manufacturing learning curve[2] of which Moore's law is just an example). Tesla's strategy is to drive volumes with gradually more affordable cars to bring down battery costs until there is a crossover where gasoline cars are impractical. That also explains the Gigafactory and the wall battery. So far, it's working. [1] http://rameznaam.com/2013/09/25/energy-storage-gets-exponentially-cheaper-too/ http://rameznaam.com/2013/09/25/energy-storage-gets-exponent... [2] http://www.strategosinc.com/articles/strategy/learning_curves.htm http://www.strategosinc.com/articles/strategy/learning_curve...
- mtgx 11y ago
  > Leaf battery pack at $270/KWh in 2014. Tesla is expected to have $200/KWh batteries once the Gigactory starts making batteries. Bolt is already said to use $145/KWh batteries, but I figure that's mainly because they're using cheaper batteries with much shorter life (kind of how Tesla's 10KWh PowerWall was cheaper than its 7KWh PowerWall).
Someone1234 11y ago
That table of "U.S. Sales of Large Luxury Vehicles" is pretty uhh selective. When I search for "Large Luxury Vehicles" on Google it lists other four door models and even manufacturers that don't appear in this table. Their claim that the reason for the selection is "comparably priced four-door sedans" is also inaccurate. They've skipped similarly priced "large luxury vehicles" while including some on the list which are much more expensive (almost $100K). Obviously this was created to wow Tesla's investors. But I think you'll find it was designed to create a picture that Tesla owns 50% of the "large luxury vehicle" market with the highest growth and to accomplish that they had to selectively include and exclude vehicles that didn't fit that narrative.
- sixQuarks 11y ago
  So according to your research, which comparable large luxury vehicle sells more than the Model S?
  - Someone1234 11y ago
    > So according to your research, which comparable large luxury vehicle sells more than the Model S? That wasn't a claim I made. I said the table was set up in such a way as to read like Tesla controlled 50% of the large luxury vehicle market. If you include more vehicles, even if they sell worse, then Tesla's proportional market share drops. But since you brought it up, if you wish to tell us which comparable large luxury vehicle outsells the Model S then I invite you to do so?
    - sixQuarks 11y ago
      Yes, but what are the other comparable vehicles you found? Are you considering near-luxury vehicles like Cadillac and Lincoln? Because that's not in the same class as a Model S. The closest competitors were all in that list as far as I'm aware.
      - basseq 11y ago
        Just posted above: I think the A6/5-Series/E-Class are closer to the Model S than A8/7-Series/S-Class. (The A7, 6-Series, and CLS are probably the best "direct" comparisons, but are also the "in-between" models in their lineups, where the Model S stands alone.)
tbark42 11y ago
"Tesla means something: yes, it stands for sustainability and caring for the environment" Nope #1: http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?rssid=32951 http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?rssid=32951 Nope #2: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3
- toomuchtodo 11y ago
  Only 30% of electrical generation in the US is coal (this number decreases yearly). All new generators coming online this year are solar, wind or natural gas. Yes, natural gas still emits CO2 compared to a coal fired power plant. But, those natural gas emissions are much cleaner, and those combined cycle plants can be throttled much faster on demand from the ISO authority, which helps solar and wind generation. Electric cars get cleaner every year because of this. Gas cars will always burn gas their entire life. 2016 EIA Generator Turnups: http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_c.png http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_c.... 2016 EIA Generator Retirements: http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_d.png http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_d.... Also, Tesla has a closed loop recycling process for their battery packs.
  - brianobush 11y ago
    > Gas cars will always burn gas their entire life. And typically get worse performance over time, usually due to poor maintenance.
  - brooklyndavs 11y ago
    "Electric cars get cleaner every year because of this. Gas cars will always burn gas their entire life." This might be true in the future but we aren't there yet unfortunately. This is due to the incorrect assumption that natural gas is a clean bridge fuel. Once you take into account the methane emissions/leaks from natural gas you end up with a fuel just as bad as coal and oil from a global warming perspective. This is due to methane being very dangerous greenhouse gas in the sort term (now - 100yr time period). This plus the emissions required to produce any consumer product like a car probably means for now electric cars not much better than a traditional gas car. The only way to make these cars truly emissions free is to remove ALL carbon based energy from the chain. That includes car and battery production, charging, maintenance, and disposal. Until you do that your just switching the source of emissions around. The climate system doesn't care if the greenhouse gas comes from a car or a power plant. The best thing we could do in the short term until we have a 100% green grid is to hold off on buying the car and walk/ride a bike :) http://www.thenation.com/article/global-warming-terrifying-new-chemistry/ http://www.thenation.com/article/global-warming-terrifying-n... http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL067987/abstract http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL067987/abst...
tlogan 11y ago
It is interesting how my understanding of innovator's dilemma perfectly explains Tesla. - there is market for luxury cars - luxury cars market was full of expensive but uninteresting, crapy and low quality cars. - Tesla make cool car for same price as other luxury cars but it was way cooler. It worked well. - Tesla now goes to conquer low end of the market So it is typical market disruption: make something better than others for lower price. NOTE: People say Tesla Model S is expensive but it is actually less expensive that Mercedes CLS which is has 2 stars reliability rating by JD Power.
- pavlov 11y ago
  The examples in the original Christensen book are a bit different from that scenario. As far as I remember, they're all about products in a lower market segment gradually moving up into a higher segment: 5" hard drives become good enough to eat the expensive 8" drives' market, initially weak hydraulic excavators gain enough power to compete with cable excavators, etc. So in the car example, this interpretation of "innovator's dilemma" would mean that something like electric Smart cars would gradually encroach on Mercedes' luxury market. Clearly it hasn't worked that way -- so that suggests that consumer cars are fundamentally different from excavators bought by businesses. (I know that Smart is actually a Mercedes brand. I have a suspicion that the huge investments that Mercedes made in Smart around the turn of the millennium were motivated by Christensen's theory so much in vogue at the time...)
- hencq 11y ago
  Actually the way the Innovator's Dilemma" uses the word disruption is very specific and doesn't match your explanation or the article's for that matter. Christensen doesn't use disruption to mean "making something better than others for a lower price". Disruption, as he defines it, is specifically about making a product that is actually inferior on the metrics valued by the existing market. The canonical example from his book is about hard drive manufacturers increasing the storage space of their hard drives for mainframes (something the market asked for). They got disrupted by manufacturers making hard drives that had much less storage space (so considered inferior by the existing market), but were physically smaller allowing them to be used in minicomputers, a new market. Now, it might still be possible to apply disruption as Christensen defines it to the market for cars, though arguably it might be stretching it. It seems to me that Tesla sacrificed some of the metrics used by current buyers of luxury cars, but appealed to a previously ignored segment of "green" or "techie" buyers. Compare for instance the interior of a Tesla model S against a Mercedes S class and the Tesla would lose. However, Tesla correctly identified that there appears to be a market for electric cars where customers are willing to pay a premium.
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11thEarlOfMar 11y ago
When I purchased my last car in 2014, the order from mom was safety above all else. It had to have 5 stars in the 3 major categories. Dad had to give up performance. The car is jumpy, very loud and sluggish when accelerating 50-60 mph and the stereo is just bad. Tesla has satisfied both mom and dad by achieving both the safest and highest performance car ever mass produced, and, the total cost of ownership, factoring in depreciation, fuel, maintenance, insurance, is 1/2 an equivalently priced gasoline car over 10 years. That is why they have >300,000 pre-orders for the Model 3. Environmentally friendly, never have to smell gasoline again, drive in the car pool lanes, these are all icing on the cake.
- dragontamer 11y ago
  > It had to have 5 stars in the 3 major categories. Every vehicle I care about seems to have 5 stars in all categories. Safety of modern vehicles is exceptionally better than even just 10 years ago. You can achieve 5-stars in the original three categories with a $15k Honda Fit (Moderate front, side, and roof) http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/vehicle/v/honda/fit-4-door-wagon/2015 http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/vehicle/v/honda/fit-4-door-... > highest performance car ever mass produced Take a look at Leguna Seca lap times. Model S isn't doing as well as "high performance" cars. EDIT: Focus on the 1:48 laptime, the best one. It looks like it was a casual race for the most part. The 1:48 time however is a record not only for Tesla Model S, but for electric vehicles in general and should be taken as the "serious" indicator of the Model S's overall performance. https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-laguna-seca-lap-times https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-laguna-s... 5-stars in every safety category with performance and cheap is like... Subaru WRX. Fords are a bit easier to maintain though, so I'd go with Ford Focus ST or Focus RS (and switch out the tires, because stock tires on that suck apparently)
  - LeonM 11y ago
    > Take a look at Leguna Seca lap times. Model S isn't doing very well. It all depends on how you like to 'measure' performance. The model S dominates when it comes to acceleration, pedal response and road (!= track) handling due to the low center of gravity. However, the S does very poor on a circuit because the motor/inverter tends to get hot and the software will reduce the maximum output power accordingly. You have to keep in minds that the model S is a 4 door, 2 trunk luxury sedan, not a race car.
ams6110 11y ago
a phenomenon that is nearly unprecedented Not at all; people camped out/stood in line to buy Windows 95. Tesla popularity is a pop culture fad/novelty. Not to say the car isn't a great technical achievement, but these kind of responses have been seen before.
- SonicSoul 11y ago
  where was this line? I was around when 95 came out and don't remember that much excitement. Also in this case people are parting with a $1k for years just to save a place in line. Has that happened for any car before? that's what's unprecedented.
  - tsunamifury 11y ago
    Thats pretty standard in the upper-end of car purchasing, Ferrari, new models from BMW or Mercedes. All dealers hold waitlists -- its just likely you've never purchased a model that has one. Also Windows had huge lines... the iconic photo: http://i.imgur.com/oc2EDhE.jpg?fb http://i.imgur.com/oc2EDhE.jpg?fb
    - SonicSoul 11y ago
      wow. thanks for that. I must have blocked it out of my memory. and the comments on that photo are hilarious
      - rconti 11y ago
        It was fantastic. I was living just south of Redmond at the time. There was news coverage about it. Ballmer and Gates were driving around town in a Ballmer's Porsche blasting "start me up" (the theme for the Win95 launch), congratulating shoppers.
        SonicSoul 11y ago
        haha! oh I wish there was footage of this.
tambourine_man 11y ago
Moreover, given the fact that Tesla only delivered just over 50,000 cars last year, no matter how quickly Tesla scales it will almost certainly be years before this first week of reservations is fulfilled Yes, because there's no such thing as production scaling
umeshunni 11y ago
If you're like me and wondering what the title refers to - it's a play on an old Ford commercial - "It's a Ford" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-YO5gzw6xg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-YO5gzw6xg
- monkbent 11y ago
  Actually, I have never seen that before but I'll claim it! Haha
- LeonM 11y ago
  I think the author refers to "It's a duesy", which refers to the brand Duesenberg [0], once the builder of the most luxurious cars on the planet, now very rare and very valuable collectables. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duesenberg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duesenberg
  - mintplant 11y ago
    The "Etymological Note" section of the Wikipedia page you linked directly contradicts you.
pinaceae 11y ago
I for one am still waiting for an actually useful electric car. For reference, I currently have two vehicles: a 2008 Jeep Liberty and a motorcycle. The motorcycle is the commute machine. The Jeep is family travel and hauling machine. The latter is the killer use case for a car for me. Recently cleaned out old furniture from my garage, simply opened the backdoor of the car, folded the rear seats over and loaded all the crap in. The car is dented, scratched, I don't care. A workhorse, at my disposal. Ski trips, bike trips, shit weather commute. Where is the electric version of that?
- erikpukinskis 11y ago
  It doesn't exist yet because major car manufacturers don't believe it's possible.
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simo7 11y ago
The author shows a poor understanding of car making business. He tackles the whole topic from the demand side (how to have people liking and buying the product), but the real issue with the model 3 will be: can they PRODUCE it right?. All the comparisons with Apple the iphone clearly show he's approaching this business as it was just consumer tech, which is really not. Just think about the effects that shifting from a low volume-high margin business to a high volume-low margin one can have on return on capital... And that's happening in a very capital intensive business, so tons of money re/invested at low ROE.. I wish Tesla can really make it happen but if I was a shareholder I would be quite reasonably scared.
- aerovistae 11y ago
  You show a poor understanding of Musk's track record. I just don't get people who hold this opinion. What exactly do you think is going to happen? Do you envision Tesla admitting, say Q2 2018, "Serious supply shortages continue to prevent us delivering on the Model 3, we now hope for Q1 2019 delivery," and ultimately just go out of business, meanwhile competitors suddenly come up with incredibly compelling cars that they've somehow never managed to create before? Is that really the outcome you anticipate?? This is the same guy who's now successfully landed rockets . . . but you think manufacturing cars will be unachievable for him, even after Tesla has continually demonstrated rapidly climbing production and sales of the S and X?????
  - rconti 11y ago
    It would only require running out of cashflow and willing investors. I agree, it's hard to imagine, but Tesla doesn't exactly have a great bond rating... http://money.cnn.com/2014/05/28/investing/tesla-junk-bond-rating/ http://money.cnn.com/2014/05/28/investing/tesla-junk-bond-ra... I admit I don't understand the full consequences, but it's very easy to imagine them being on the verge of launching a product but being unable to raise more money given their at-the-time dilution, valuation, etc etc etc etc.
  - simo7 11y ago
    I love your counter-argument: "this guy landed rockets, so he will make happen whatever" :D Oook...look I'm cheering for this but then there is this thing called "reality". And I'm not even say it won't happen, but I'm doubting whether it will be sustainable in terms of the obligation a company has with its shareholders. Producing so many cars requires crazy amount of capital and that capital will yield very little on this model...and yes on top of it competition will come...can Tesla be a sustainably profitable company pursuing this strategy? That's my question.
Rockerczy 11y ago
Better to ignore the writing of somebody who is blindly hoping that iPhone SE will solve Apple's problem and capture indian marketshare.
- Rockerczy 11y ago
  Apple's iPhone SE may have already flopped in India. The Friday launch of the company's latest device had the weakest demand for a new iPhone on day one, with barely 2,000 units http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/tech-news/iPhone-SE-first-day-demand-weakest-for-Apple-phones/articleshow/51752289.cms http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/tech-news/iPhone-SE-...
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jcslzr 11y ago
electric cars are the new: "if you black you never go back"
musesum 11y ago
Heh: "suped up golf cart". I drove one of those. It was called a Citicar: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citicar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citicar My dad owned a GM dealership. I was in high school when the 1973 oil embargo happened. Around the same time, the 1973 issue of Scientific American showed how bicycles where 46x more efficient that cars. (I think this was the issue where Steve Jobs got the inspiration for "Bicycle of the Mind") So, I gave up cars. But then, my Dad started to carry Citicars. It had a couple issues: First, it had a 40-mile range. Second, the body was ABS Plastic. Because there was so little mass, drivers would stomp down on the accelerator, rear-end the car in front, and do $500 damage to the body. So, after the first shipment, the dealership stopped carrying them. [EDIT] 40 not 20 miles, though the last 20 didn't go up hills very well.
dismal2 11y ago
Does anyone know if the power grid handle charging all these in the next 3-4 years?
MrFoof 11y ago
>an astounding 115,000 of them sent in their deposit before they even knew what the car looked like. Talk to Porsche enthusiasts who buy GT cars from their motorsport division. They'll view such an ideal as not only normal, but required. The common phrase is, "This is how the game is played." Want the next GT3 RS (991.2)? Too bad, but you're already too late. Yes, the car will probably not be announced for another 2-3 years, but Porsche dealers/OPCs probably have enough deposits in hands TODAY in which 95% of them are likely spoken for. Second hand at massive premium is your only real chance at one. Hell, add the GT4 (and GT3, of course) to that as well. Want the RS of 991.2's successor? That you have a chance at. Just get your deposit in today. In five years you'll know what the car is, and you'll have bought yourself right of first refusal. Porsche doesn't care if you don't want it and want your money, because there's already a few people in line behind you. What is different is this isn't a low-volume enthusiast car. This is a volume seller. This is targeting the 3-series, which moves over 100K units/year in the US alone. As a result, that's what is impressive. It's the game normally played by people wanting hard-edged Porsches, Ferraris, Lamborghinis, McLarens, etc., but for a volume seller.

344 points by ghosh 11y ago

"And yes, Tesla has a history of delivering cars late and with a higher price than expected." The article closes with a similar sentiment. I see this a lot, and I wonder where it comes from. Late, no question, but higher price? I think the Roadster may have had a price increase, but both the Model S and Model X hit their price targets. I think there's a lot of confusion because prices are sometimes quoted with the Federal tax credit (and even state credits in some cases) and sometimes without, and because the Model S 40 was discontinued pretty much immediately due to low demand. I won't be at all shocked if the Model 3 ends up being late. But I think it's a safe bet that it will cost $35,000 as announced.

gr3yh47 11y ago
Beyond that, people keep acting like the price will never go down from the launch price, which is obviously not the case.
- jsight 11y ago
  It may go down in relation to inflation, but I kind of doubt that it will ever go down in price in a literal sense. 35k seems to be the right price.
  - gr3yh47 11y ago
    both the Roadster and Model S prices were nontrivially reduced over their production lifetimes. It's built into Tesla's business plan.
pchristensen 11y ago
Most Model S's sell for waaaaay more than the list price, because they're bought by wealthy people that pile on the options. It's a safe bet that most $35k Model 3's will sell for $45k+ for the same reason.
- mikeash 11y ago
  No doubt, but that's completely unrelated.
- stepanhruda 11y ago
  The average price from all the bookings is ~$42k.
  - jcdavis 11y ago
    That was Elon's estimate - they haven't released any details on what any of the options/configurations will look like, just the base price of $35k.
  - mikeash 11y ago
    Elon Musk posted a guess that the average Model 3 configuration will cost about that much. There is no average price from the bookings, as the bookings are just a $1,000 option to purchase, and no options pricing or configurations have been made available yet.
codeulike 11y ago
Partly this is to do with the $50,000 Model S that everyone has forgotten about now. Tesla said the base price of Model S would be $50,000. They did actually make such a car available, but it only had a 40KWH battery pack and so very few people ordered it. Consequently they gave up selling it and made the base model the 60KWH one instead. People that had ordered a 40KWH Tesla actually got a software-limited 60KWH one instead because it wasn't worth it for Tesla to make a different battery. http://jalopnik.com/laptesla-kills-the-50-000-model-s-makes-the-media-the-464831618 http://jalopnik.com/laptesla-kills-the-50-000-model-s-makes-... edit: oh sorry you already mentioned that
- lijason 11y ago
  Yep. The $50K model felt like it was hitting a price point rather than it being the car that people would actually want. Even if most travel would fit in that 40KWH range, no one at that point wanted to risk it. I'm curious what will be included in the $35K Model 3 and what will differentiate it from the higher speced models. I think that will indicate if this is "really" a $35K car.
  - codeulike 11y ago
    Well he's outlined the baseline: 215 mile range for $35k. And it looks like it'll have the touchscreen and the safety features from autopilot. It probably wont have free supercharging. In the unveil he said even the basic model will be a 'really good car'.
    - lijason 11y ago
      Yep, sorry. Meant to say that's the first thing I looked at from the announcement. 215 mile range is probably good enough. I think the definition of "really good car" will be the question. I think it could easily be argued that the smaller battery model S was a "good car" but the market spoke differently. Really exciting regardless.

mmastrac 11y ago

Tesla had to first build the market for their electric vehicles by proving that they were powerful enough to satisfy the "petrolheads". Even starting at the high end, they had trouble breaking through the public perception [1], but nowhere near as much as if they had started at the low-end (IMO). [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Top_Gear_controversies#Tesla_Roadster_review https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Top_Gear_controversies#Tesla_R...

vvanders 11y ago
Yup, that's the most incredible part about the whole thing to me, bootstrapping a market that didn't existing in such a high capital industry.

rwmj 11y ago

Oddly I'm in the market for a "neighbourhood electric vehicle" - a cheap, limited, electric car that can get two people to the station and back daily (a distance of around 4 miles). There are really no good options. The closest is probably the Renault Twizy, essentially an enclosed electric bike with 4 wheels. It's very expensive, and more worryingly there are lots and lots of them available on the second hand market, almost new, at greatly reduced prices.

glaberficken 11y ago
I suggest getting 2 electrically assisted bicycles for that use case (if you are able to park them in a secure place).
- rwmj 11y ago
  Yes, I have (an) e-bike. Lots of fun in summer, not so much in winter.
  - sliverstorm 11y ago
    How rural are you? Is biking crappy because of snow & ice? In which case, can you get away with a quad in the winter?
    - rwmj 11y ago
      Rural, and we'd expect snow/ice in a normal winter, but this year we didn't get any at all. I was thinking more about a covered vehicle. The Twizy is (to a degree) covered, although the basic models lack side doors.
- tromp 11y ago
  Dutch bike company Vanmoof just launched a new invisibly electric bike that can be pre-ordered at https://preorder.vanmoof.com/?ct-referral-code=nw5wFevx https://preorder.vanmoof.com/?ct-referral-code=nw5wFevx (shameless referral link they provided when I ordered mine)

ryanmarsh 11y ago

> General Motors first unveiled the Chevy Bolt as a concept car in January 2015... > As Pam Fletcher, GM’s executive chief engineer for electric vehicles, recently put it to me with a confident grin: “Who wants to be second?” Yah but... it's a GM. I own the finest luxury automobile GM makes, the Cadillac Escalade. It is a chrome lined bucket of bolts. If they can't do this right how can they do a $25k car right? As I type this my GM is in the shop RN with a hard to reproduce transmission issue. Oh and it cost as much as a Model S. o_O OTOH the Model S is the most well manufactured anything I've ever sat in. It boggles my mind why anyone would buy a second GM. They've had enough time to get it right. Instead they've a consistent track record of mediocrity with an epic failure about every decade. Tesla tho... All I can say is, the people baffled by Tesla's success can't have spent much time behind the wheel of a Model S. I didn't realize how much cars suck, even luxury cars, till I spent a day driving an S up and down the PCH.

gist 11y ago
> I own the finest luxury automobile GM makes, the Cadillac Escalade. It is a chrome lined bucket of bolts. I feel the same way. Thought briefly about getting a new Corvette. Have had several 911's and other Porsches. Just can't wrap my head around buying a Chevy. When I was a kid it was all the rage (long long time ago). So was Porsche for that matter and Mercedes had just broken into the luxury market here (mid 70's).
- kerryfalk 11y ago
  The new C7 'vette is leaps and bounds ahead of the previous generations. It's not the same as you might expect from other performance vehicles in terms of fit and finish but it is quite a bit better than what they used to produce and you'd be hard pressed to find a better bang for your buck. With that said, I personally chose to spend more for a very boisterous German muscle car...
- mikestew 11y ago
  The C7 is the first 'vette ever that made me say, "I'd like to own one of those" when I first saw it. Then my Mom bought one. She just bought it a few months back, so I can't vouch for long-term reliability, but $50K buys one hell of a sports car. Currently the best go-fast value out there, IMO. (And just like every other car out there, the in-dash software sucks, but that's mitigated by it having Car Play.)

paulsutter 11y ago

Lithium Ion battery prices have come down 40% since 2010 (see third graph[1]), and that is /caused/ by the increasing demand (it's called a manufacturing learning curve[2] of which Moore's law is just an example). Tesla's strategy is to drive volumes with gradually more affordable cars to bring down battery costs until there is a crossover where gasoline cars are impractical. That also explains the Gigafactory and the wall battery. So far, it's working. [1] http://rameznaam.com/2013/09/25/energy-storage-gets-exponentially-cheaper-too/ http://rameznaam.com/2013/09/25/energy-storage-gets-exponent... [2] http://www.strategosinc.com/articles/strategy/learning_curves.htm http://www.strategosinc.com/articles/strategy/learning_curve...

mtgx 11y ago
> Leaf battery pack at $270/KWh in 2014. Tesla is expected to have $200/KWh batteries once the Gigactory starts making batteries. Bolt is already said to use $145/KWh batteries, but I figure that's mainly because they're using cheaper batteries with much shorter life (kind of how Tesla's 10KWh PowerWall was cheaper than its 7KWh PowerWall).

Someone1234 11y ago

That table of "U.S. Sales of Large Luxury Vehicles" is pretty uhh selective. When I search for "Large Luxury Vehicles" on Google it lists other four door models and even manufacturers that don't appear in this table. Their claim that the reason for the selection is "comparably priced four-door sedans" is also inaccurate. They've skipped similarly priced "large luxury vehicles" while including some on the list which are much more expensive (almost $100K). Obviously this was created to wow Tesla's investors. But I think you'll find it was designed to create a picture that Tesla owns 50% of the "large luxury vehicle" market with the highest growth and to accomplish that they had to selectively include and exclude vehicles that didn't fit that narrative.

sixQuarks 11y ago
So according to your research, which comparable large luxury vehicle sells more than the Model S?
- Someone1234 11y ago
  > So according to your research, which comparable large luxury vehicle sells more than the Model S? That wasn't a claim I made. I said the table was set up in such a way as to read like Tesla controlled 50% of the large luxury vehicle market. If you include more vehicles, even if they sell worse, then Tesla's proportional market share drops. But since you brought it up, if you wish to tell us which comparable large luxury vehicle outsells the Model S then I invite you to do so?
  - sixQuarks 11y ago
    Yes, but what are the other comparable vehicles you found? Are you considering near-luxury vehicles like Cadillac and Lincoln? Because that's not in the same class as a Model S. The closest competitors were all in that list as far as I'm aware.
    - basseq 11y ago
      Just posted above: I think the A6/5-Series/E-Class are closer to the Model S than A8/7-Series/S-Class. (The A7, 6-Series, and CLS are probably the best "direct" comparisons, but are also the "in-between" models in their lineups, where the Model S stands alone.)

tbark42 11y ago

"Tesla means something: yes, it stands for sustainability and caring for the environment" Nope #1: http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?rssid=32951 http://www.evworld.com/news.cfm?rssid=32951 Nope #2: https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3 https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=427&t=3

toomuchtodo 11y ago
Only 30% of electrical generation in the US is coal (this number decreases yearly). All new generators coming online this year are solar, wind or natural gas. Yes, natural gas still emits CO2 compared to a coal fired power plant. But, those natural gas emissions are much cleaner, and those combined cycle plants can be throttled much faster on demand from the ISO authority, which helps solar and wind generation. Electric cars get cleaner every year because of this. Gas cars will always burn gas their entire life. 2016 EIA Generator Turnups: http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_c.png http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_c.... 2016 EIA Generator Retirements: http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_d.png http://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/images/figure_6_01_d.... Also, Tesla has a closed loop recycling process for their battery packs.
- brianobush 11y ago
  > Gas cars will always burn gas their entire life. And typically get worse performance over time, usually due to poor maintenance.
- brooklyndavs 11y ago
  "Electric cars get cleaner every year because of this. Gas cars will always burn gas their entire life." This might be true in the future but we aren't there yet unfortunately. This is due to the incorrect assumption that natural gas is a clean bridge fuel. Once you take into account the methane emissions/leaks from natural gas you end up with a fuel just as bad as coal and oil from a global warming perspective. This is due to methane being very dangerous greenhouse gas in the sort term (now - 100yr time period). This plus the emissions required to produce any consumer product like a car probably means for now electric cars not much better than a traditional gas car. The only way to make these cars truly emissions free is to remove ALL carbon based energy from the chain. That includes car and battery production, charging, maintenance, and disposal. Until you do that your just switching the source of emissions around. The climate system doesn't care if the greenhouse gas comes from a car or a power plant. The best thing we could do in the short term until we have a 100% green grid is to hold off on buying the car and walk/ride a bike :) http://www.thenation.com/article/global-warming-terrifying-new-chemistry/ http://www.thenation.com/article/global-warming-terrifying-n... http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL067987/abstract http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016GL067987/abst...

tlogan 11y ago

It is interesting how my understanding of innovator's dilemma perfectly explains Tesla. - there is market for luxury cars - luxury cars market was full of expensive but uninteresting, crapy and low quality cars. - Tesla make cool car for same price as other luxury cars but it was way cooler. It worked well. - Tesla now goes to conquer low end of the market So it is typical market disruption: make something better than others for lower price. NOTE: People say Tesla Model S is expensive but it is actually less expensive that Mercedes CLS which is has 2 stars reliability rating by JD Power.

pavlov 11y ago
The examples in the original Christensen book are a bit different from that scenario. As far as I remember, they're all about products in a lower market segment gradually moving up into a higher segment: 5" hard drives become good enough to eat the expensive 8" drives' market, initially weak hydraulic excavators gain enough power to compete with cable excavators, etc. So in the car example, this interpretation of "innovator's dilemma" would mean that something like electric Smart cars would gradually encroach on Mercedes' luxury market. Clearly it hasn't worked that way -- so that suggests that consumer cars are fundamentally different from excavators bought by businesses. (I know that Smart is actually a Mercedes brand. I have a suspicion that the huge investments that Mercedes made in Smart around the turn of the millennium were motivated by Christensen's theory so much in vogue at the time...)
hencq 11y ago
Actually the way the Innovator's Dilemma" uses the word disruption is very specific and doesn't match your explanation or the article's for that matter. Christensen doesn't use disruption to mean "making something better than others for a lower price". Disruption, as he defines it, is specifically about making a product that is actually inferior on the metrics valued by the existing market. The canonical example from his book is about hard drive manufacturers increasing the storage space of their hard drives for mainframes (something the market asked for). They got disrupted by manufacturers making hard drives that had much less storage space (so considered inferior by the existing market), but were physically smaller allowing them to be used in minicomputers, a new market. Now, it might still be possible to apply disruption as Christensen defines it to the market for cars, though arguably it might be stretching it. It seems to me that Tesla sacrificed some of the metrics used by current buyers of luxury cars, but appealed to a previously ignored segment of "green" or "techie" buyers. Compare for instance the interior of a Tesla model S against a Mercedes S class and the Tesla would lose. However, Tesla correctly identified that there appears to be a market for electric cars where customers are willing to pay a premium.

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11thEarlOfMar 11y ago

When I purchased my last car in 2014, the order from mom was safety above all else. It had to have 5 stars in the 3 major categories. Dad had to give up performance. The car is jumpy, very loud and sluggish when accelerating 50-60 mph and the stereo is just bad. Tesla has satisfied both mom and dad by achieving both the safest and highest performance car ever mass produced, and, the total cost of ownership, factoring in depreciation, fuel, maintenance, insurance, is 1/2 an equivalently priced gasoline car over 10 years. That is why they have >300,000 pre-orders for the Model 3. Environmentally friendly, never have to smell gasoline again, drive in the car pool lanes, these are all icing on the cake.

dragontamer 11y ago
> It had to have 5 stars in the 3 major categories. Every vehicle I care about seems to have 5 stars in all categories. Safety of modern vehicles is exceptionally better than even just 10 years ago. You can achieve 5-stars in the original three categories with a $15k Honda Fit (Moderate front, side, and roof) http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/vehicle/v/honda/fit-4-door-wagon/2015 http://www.iihs.org/iihs/ratings/vehicle/v/honda/fit-4-door-... > highest performance car ever mass produced Take a look at Leguna Seca lap times. Model S isn't doing as well as "high performance" cars. EDIT: Focus on the 1:48 laptime, the best one. It looks like it was a casual race for the most part. The 1:48 time however is a record not only for Tesla Model S, but for electric vehicles in general and should be taken as the "serious" indicator of the Model S's overall performance. https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-laguna-seca-lap-times https://forums.teslamotors.com/forum/forums/model-s-laguna-s... 5-stars in every safety category with performance and cheap is like... Subaru WRX. Fords are a bit easier to maintain though, so I'd go with Ford Focus ST or Focus RS (and switch out the tires, because stock tires on that suck apparently)
- LeonM 11y ago
  > Take a look at Leguna Seca lap times. Model S isn't doing very well. It all depends on how you like to 'measure' performance. The model S dominates when it comes to acceleration, pedal response and road (!= track) handling due to the low center of gravity. However, the S does very poor on a circuit because the motor/inverter tends to get hot and the software will reduce the maximum output power accordingly. You have to keep in minds that the model S is a 4 door, 2 trunk luxury sedan, not a race car.

ams6110 11y ago

a phenomenon that is nearly unprecedented Not at all; people camped out/stood in line to buy Windows 95. Tesla popularity is a pop culture fad/novelty. Not to say the car isn't a great technical achievement, but these kind of responses have been seen before.

SonicSoul 11y ago
where was this line? I was around when 95 came out and don't remember that much excitement. Also in this case people are parting with a $1k for years just to save a place in line. Has that happened for any car before? that's what's unprecedented.
- tsunamifury 11y ago
  Thats pretty standard in the upper-end of car purchasing, Ferrari, new models from BMW or Mercedes. All dealers hold waitlists -- its just likely you've never purchased a model that has one. Also Windows had huge lines... the iconic photo: http://i.imgur.com/oc2EDhE.jpg?fb http://i.imgur.com/oc2EDhE.jpg?fb
  - SonicSoul 11y ago
    wow. thanks for that. I must have blocked it out of my memory. and the comments on that photo are hilarious
    - rconti 11y ago
      It was fantastic. I was living just south of Redmond at the time. There was news coverage about it. Ballmer and Gates were driving around town in a Ballmer's Porsche blasting "start me up" (the theme for the Win95 launch), congratulating shoppers.
      - SonicSoul 11y ago
        haha! oh I wish there was footage of this.

tambourine_man 11y ago

Moreover, given the fact that Tesla only delivered just over 50,000 cars last year, no matter how quickly Tesla scales it will almost certainly be years before this first week of reservations is fulfilled Yes, because there's no such thing as production scaling

umeshunni 11y ago

If you're like me and wondering what the title refers to - it's a play on an old Ford commercial - "It's a Ford" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-YO5gzw6xg https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-YO5gzw6xg

monkbent 11y ago
Actually, I have never seen that before but I'll claim it! Haha
LeonM 11y ago
I think the author refers to "It's a duesy", which refers to the brand Duesenberg [0], once the builder of the most luxurious cars on the planet, now very rare and very valuable collectables. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duesenberg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Duesenberg
- mintplant 11y ago
  The "Etymological Note" section of the Wikipedia page you linked directly contradicts you.

pinaceae 11y ago

I for one am still waiting for an actually useful electric car. For reference, I currently have two vehicles: a 2008 Jeep Liberty and a motorcycle. The motorcycle is the commute machine. The Jeep is family travel and hauling machine. The latter is the killer use case for a car for me. Recently cleaned out old furniture from my garage, simply opened the backdoor of the car, folded the rear seats over and loaded all the crap in. The car is dented, scratched, I don't care. A workhorse, at my disposal. Ski trips, bike trips, shit weather commute. Where is the electric version of that?

erikpukinskis 11y ago
It doesn't exist yet because major car manufacturers don't believe it's possible.

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simo7 11y ago

The author shows a poor understanding of car making business. He tackles the whole topic from the demand side (how to have people liking and buying the product), but the real issue with the model 3 will be: can they PRODUCE it right?. All the comparisons with Apple the iphone clearly show he's approaching this business as it was just consumer tech, which is really not. Just think about the effects that shifting from a low volume-high margin business to a high volume-low margin one can have on return on capital... And that's happening in a very capital intensive business, so tons of money re/invested at low ROE.. I wish Tesla can really make it happen but if I was a shareholder I would be quite reasonably scared.

aerovistae 11y ago
You show a poor understanding of Musk's track record. I just don't get people who hold this opinion. What exactly do you think is going to happen? Do you envision Tesla admitting, say Q2 2018, "Serious supply shortages continue to prevent us delivering on the Model 3, we now hope for Q1 2019 delivery," and ultimately just go out of business, meanwhile competitors suddenly come up with incredibly compelling cars that they've somehow never managed to create before? Is that really the outcome you anticipate?? This is the same guy who's now successfully landed rockets . . . but you think manufacturing cars will be unachievable for him, even after Tesla has continually demonstrated rapidly climbing production and sales of the S and X?????
- rconti 11y ago
  It would only require running out of cashflow and willing investors. I agree, it's hard to imagine, but Tesla doesn't exactly have a great bond rating... http://money.cnn.com/2014/05/28/investing/tesla-junk-bond-rating/ http://money.cnn.com/2014/05/28/investing/tesla-junk-bond-ra... I admit I don't understand the full consequences, but it's very easy to imagine them being on the verge of launching a product but being unable to raise more money given their at-the-time dilution, valuation, etc etc etc etc.
- simo7 11y ago
  I love your counter-argument: "this guy landed rockets, so he will make happen whatever" :D Oook...look I'm cheering for this but then there is this thing called "reality". And I'm not even say it won't happen, but I'm doubting whether it will be sustainable in terms of the obligation a company has with its shareholders. Producing so many cars requires crazy amount of capital and that capital will yield very little on this model...and yes on top of it competition will come...can Tesla be a sustainably profitable company pursuing this strategy? That's my question.

Rockerczy 11y ago

Better to ignore the writing of somebody who is blindly hoping that iPhone SE will solve Apple's problem and capture indian marketshare.

Rockerczy 11y ago
Apple's iPhone SE may have already flopped in India. The Friday launch of the company's latest device had the weakest demand for a new iPhone on day one, with barely 2,000 units http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/tech-news/iPhone-SE-first-day-demand-weakest-for-Apple-phones/articleshow/51752289.cms http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/tech-news/iPhone-SE-...

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jcslzr 11y ago

electric cars are the new: "if you black you never go back"

musesum 11y ago

Heh: "suped up golf cart". I drove one of those. It was called a Citicar: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citicar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citicar My dad owned a GM dealership. I was in high school when the 1973 oil embargo happened. Around the same time, the 1973 issue of Scientific American showed how bicycles where 46x more efficient that cars. (I think this was the issue where Steve Jobs got the inspiration for "Bicycle of the Mind") So, I gave up cars. But then, my Dad started to carry Citicars. It had a couple issues: First, it had a 40-mile range. Second, the body was ABS Plastic. Because there was so little mass, drivers would stomp down on the accelerator, rear-end the car in front, and do $500 damage to the body. So, after the first shipment, the dealership stopped carrying them. [EDIT] 40 not 20 miles, though the last 20 didn't go up hills very well.

dismal2 11y ago

Does anyone know if the power grid handle charging all these in the next 3-4 years?

MrFoof 11y ago

>an astounding 115,000 of them sent in their deposit before they even knew what the car looked like. Talk to Porsche enthusiasts who buy GT cars from their motorsport division. They'll view such an ideal as not only normal, but required. The common phrase is, "This is how the game is played." Want the next GT3 RS (991.2)? Too bad, but you're already too late. Yes, the car will probably not be announced for another 2-3 years, but Porsche dealers/OPCs probably have enough deposits in hands TODAY in which 95% of them are likely spoken for. Second hand at massive premium is your only real chance at one. Hell, add the GT4 (and GT3, of course) to that as well. Want the RS of 991.2's successor? That you have a chance at. Just get your deposit in today. In five years you'll know what the car is, and you'll have bought yourself right of first refusal. Porsche doesn't care if you don't want it and want your money, because there's already a few people in line behind you. What is different is this isn't a low-volume enthusiast car. This is a volume seller. This is targeting the 3-series, which moves over 100K units/year in the US alone. As a result, that's what is impressive. It's the game normally played by people wanting hard-edged Porsches, Ferraris, Lamborghinis, McLarens, etc., but for a volume seller.