4 ms·

Yes, and also why the Singularity is such a silly idea. We are not racing to utopia, we are racing to disaster.

by itjitj 17y ago

WorkerBee 17y ago
It's a race between utopia and disaster. And the outcome is likely to be a bit of both. Famines and plagues; and robots on Mars and Titan
- itjitj 17y ago
  Fair enough.
po 17y ago
Do all who believe in the idea of the Singularity think it will be a utopia? I thought most just think it will happen.
- arethuza 17y ago
  I'm rather fond of Charlie Stross's account of a singularity in his book "Accelerando": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerando_%28novel%29 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerando_%28novel%29 From this I believe that we can predict that a singularity may not be a utopia or a dystopia but it will almost certainly be mind warpingly weird.
  - berntb 17y ago
    I really like Accelerando, too. But it sounds a bit too reasonable; business as usual, with neither Heaven nor Hell. The human mind accepts better living conditions as self evident really fast and forgets all previous situations. We lack historical insight -- from the viewpoint of two-three centuries ago, we probably live in a good approximation of Heaven. -- There is no widespread hunger. (Locally, one year in seven had a bad harvest and lots of people died with many children getting brain damage). -- The child mortality is much less than 20-30%. Enough said. -- We have antibiotics. We know about cleanliness for operations/childbirth -- and can stop pain during them. -- We are rich and most everyone can have education, music/art access and only work 8 hours a day. -- Social equality. Just 160-170 years ago in my country, it became illegal to beat your employees... -- Modern dental care. -- Etc. Even in most of the world's under developed countries, they have it much better than we had just ten generations ago. Edit: I'm not arguing against "weird". I am arguing that utopia and/or dystopia is more likely than we would guess naively. Edit 2: To nitpick and give a reference to my last claim (that was irrelevant for my point): I've seen data for up to 30% children dead before 5 years of age in Scandinavia for poor farmers (that is, most everyone), around 200-250 years ago. From the reference: "In 2007, there were 37 countries in which at least 10% of children under five died, down from 41 in 2006. All were in Africa, except for Afghanistan." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_mortality#Highest_rates_in_the_world http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_mortality#Highest_rates_i...
david927 17y ago
Think of it. We are blessed with technology that would be indescribable to our forefathers. We have the wherewithal, the know-it-all to feed everybody, clothe everybody, and give every human on Earth a chance. We know now what we could never have known before -- that we now have the option for all humanity to make it successfully on this planet in this lifetime. Whether it is to be Utopia or Oblivion will be a touch-and-go relay race right up to the final moment. Buckminster Fuller
- FluidDjango 17y ago
  Unfortunately we have no technology to manage (or enlighten) 6 billion irrational human beings. EDIT: And so... variations on the Tragedy of the Commons march on.
apsec112 17y ago
This is not what the word "Singularity" means. See http://yudkowsky.net/singularity/schools http://yudkowsky.net/singularity/schools.

Yes, and also why the Singularity is such a silly idea. We are not racing to utopia, we are racing to disaster.

by itjitj 17y ago

Yes, and also why the Singularity is such a silly idea. We are not racing to utopia, we are racing to disaster.

It's a race between utopia and disaster. And the outcome is likely to be a bit of both. Famines and plagues; and robots on Mars and Titan

itjitj 17y ago
Fair enough.

po 17y ago

Do all who believe in the idea of the Singularity think it will be a utopia? I thought most just think it will happen.

arethuza 17y ago
I'm rather fond of Charlie Stross's account of a singularity in his book "Accelerando": http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerando_%28novel%29 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accelerando_%28novel%29 From this I believe that we can predict that a singularity may not be a utopia or a dystopia but it will almost certainly be mind warpingly weird.
- berntb 17y ago
  I really like Accelerando, too. But it sounds a bit too reasonable; business as usual, with neither Heaven nor Hell. The human mind accepts better living conditions as self evident really fast and forgets all previous situations. We lack historical insight -- from the viewpoint of two-three centuries ago, we probably live in a good approximation of Heaven. -- There is no widespread hunger. (Locally, one year in seven had a bad harvest and lots of people died with many children getting brain damage). -- The child mortality is much less than 20-30%. Enough said. -- We have antibiotics. We know about cleanliness for operations/childbirth -- and can stop pain during them. -- We are rich and most everyone can have education, music/art access and only work 8 hours a day. -- Social equality. Just 160-170 years ago in my country, it became illegal to beat your employees... -- Modern dental care. -- Etc. Even in most of the world's under developed countries, they have it much better than we had just ten generations ago. Edit: I'm not arguing against "weird". I am arguing that utopia and/or dystopia is more likely than we would guess naively. Edit 2: To nitpick and give a reference to my last claim (that was irrelevant for my point): I've seen data for up to 30% children dead before 5 years of age in Scandinavia for poor farmers (that is, most everyone), around 200-250 years ago. From the reference: "In 2007, there were 37 countries in which at least 10% of children under five died, down from 41 in 2006. All were in Africa, except for Afghanistan." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_mortality#Highest_rates_in_the_world http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Child_mortality#Highest_rates_i...

david927 17y ago

Think of it. We are blessed with technology that would be indescribable to our forefathers. We have the wherewithal, the know-it-all to feed everybody, clothe everybody, and give every human on Earth a chance. We know now what we could never have known before -- that we now have the option for all humanity to make it successfully on this planet in this lifetime. Whether it is to be Utopia or Oblivion will be a touch-and-go relay race right up to the final moment. Buckminster Fuller

FluidDjango 17y ago
Unfortunately we have no technology to manage (or enlighten) 6 billion irrational human beings. EDIT: And so... variations on the Tragedy of the Commons march on.

apsec112 17y ago

This is not what the word "Singularity" means. See http://yudkowsky.net/singularity/schools http://yudkowsky.net/singularity/schools.