10 ms·

> given its artificial constraints. Given the lethality of air pollution in Beijing, I'm not sure it's fair to call "artificial" those emission-limiting constr

by fab13n 11y ago

> given its artificial constraints. Given the lethality of air pollution in Beijing, I'm not sure it's fair to call "artificial" those emission-limiting constraints. Otherwise, you'll also have to call "artificial" the constraint that one can't shoot/knife/strangle people who go out of their ways to be pains in asses, however genuine and natural the urge might seem :-) Other than that, yes, China is likely to be a very good market for Tesla, at least until local knock-off become available. I'd actually be surprised if Tesla's worldwide production matched China's demand.

seanmcdirmid 11y ago
It is an artificial market constraint, Chinese aren't buying Teslas because they want clean air even if they should (debatable: perhaps the electricity for charging comes from coal that is dirtier than gasoline engines, at least the cars are checked for air quality, the coal plants aren't!). But I also agree it's a valid way of making the air cleaner if it would have an effect. BYD already produces electric cars that are even subsidized in many cities. However, the people in Beijing buying Teslas would rather buy a BMW or Audi anyways if they could get the license plates for them, and they wouldn't be caught dead in a Chinese-brand car (and the way the BYD electric taxis have been rumored to just explode, they think being caught dead in them is a possibility). If Chinese demand is sufficient, I'm sure tesla would just open up a factory or two in China to supply it. They might even take on a Chinese partner in a JV given that they are so willing to share patents with competitors anyways (with the bonus that the partner would provide much of the RMB capital to startup, it's the one thing China has a lot of).
- Reason077 11y ago
  the people in Beijing buying Teslas would rather buy a BMW or Audi anyways if they could get the license plates for them Really? I can't imagine anyone who's actually driven a Tesla wanting to go back to an ICE vehicle. People aren't buying Teslas because they're greener or cheaper to operate or even because of government incentives (although those are additional, feel-good benefits). They're buying them because they're better cars. Faster, quieter, more fun to drive, filled with the latest technology.
  - jacquesm 11y ago
    > They're buying them because they're better cars. Faster, quieter, more fun to drive, filled with the latest technology. EV's are great for a number of use cases but they are not even close to a viable option for many uses of ICE's at the present. No doubt this will change but even if a Tesla is a 'better car' than my daily driver 'Faster', 'Quieter', 'more fun to drive' and 'filled with the latest technology' do not move the needle for me relative to 'can function anywhere on the European continent without any worry whatsoever', 'fuels up in < 5 minutes to 'full charge' and another 600 km of range', 'does not require specialty knowledge or a dealership for basic maintenance'. Oh, and if with 'faster' you are talking about acceleration then I really don't know why that would even be a factor because in normal daily driving that's the least of your problems and so on. This appears to be an argument based mostly on emotion rather than actual facts around transportation. Taxi services, commuting, local transport are all excellent use cases for EVs. Going longer distances a hybrid is right now probably the best you can do and it will be a while before EVs will be able to compete across the board with ICE's. You'll know when we have achieved parity because gas stations will start closing, or will replace pumps with EV super charging stations en-masse.
    - arethuza 11y ago
      Biggest problem for me with electric cars is the simple fact that I live in a flat - a very nice flat in a very nice European city [1]. Our car lives on the quiet street outside - so how, in the foreseeable future, would I get an electric car charged? NB Is anyone looking into solving this particular problem - because it's one that a lot of people will face. 1 - I mention this as it is inconceivable to me that I would move simply to have a different kind of car.
      - jzwinck 11y ago
        In London I had a neighbor with an electric car. It was parked on the street and plugged in using a long cord to its owner's building. Seemed to work ok, though it wasn't pretty. Plenty of street crime and vandals around, somehow they didn't seem to bother.
- andersen1488 11y ago
  > Chinese aren't buying Teslas because they want clean air even if they should Neither is anyone else. People buy Teslas because they are the best car money can buy.
  - vinay427 11y ago
    >People buy Teslas because they are the best car money can buy. I can't imagine you can make a valid case that there is one best car that money can buy, presumably for everyone who can afford one.
    - andersen1488 11y ago
      The safest vehicle (not just cars, any vehicle) ever tested by the IIHS, and the highest aggregated reviews of any car ever seem to agree with me.
      - vinay427 11y ago
        1. IIHS safety tests are certainly not comprehensive, and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone at the IIHS who would claim so. 2. To match your claim, it would have to have the highest reviews on every publication/outlet. I'm simply pointing out how vast your claim is that somehow every single car buyer who can afford one would want to buy one. Think about the luxury large SUV market, or the coupe market, or the exotic coupe market, or the super-luxury sedan market, etc.
- shifter 11y ago
  > perhaps the electricity for charging comes from coal that is dirtier than gasoline engines Burning coal (especially when coupled with electric motors, which have efficiencies of 90%+) is more efficient than burning gasoline.
dragontamer 11y ago
On the contrary, Model S hasn't been doing well in China. Luxury electric vehicles is apparently an oxymoron in China. Unlike the US, Chinese consumers have a bunch of electric mopeds and scooters. The thought of charging your vehicle with electricity is seen as a low-class activity, for those who can't afford a "real gasoline" vehicle.

by fab13n 11y ago

seanmcdirmid 11y ago

It is an artificial market constraint, Chinese aren't buying Teslas because they want clean air even if they should (debatable: perhaps the electricity for charging comes from coal that is dirtier than gasoline engines, at least the cars are checked for air quality, the coal plants aren't!). But I also agree it's a valid way of making the air cleaner if it would have an effect. BYD already produces electric cars that are even subsidized in many cities. However, the people in Beijing buying Teslas would rather buy a BMW or Audi anyways if they could get the license plates for them, and they wouldn't be caught dead in a Chinese-brand car (and the way the BYD electric taxis have been rumored to just explode, they think being caught dead in them is a possibility). If Chinese demand is sufficient, I'm sure tesla would just open up a factory or two in China to supply it. They might even take on a Chinese partner in a JV given that they are so willing to share patents with competitors anyways (with the bonus that the partner would provide much of the RMB capital to startup, it's the one thing China has a lot of).

Reason077 11y ago
the people in Beijing buying Teslas would rather buy a BMW or Audi anyways if they could get the license plates for them Really? I can't imagine anyone who's actually driven a Tesla wanting to go back to an ICE vehicle. People aren't buying Teslas because they're greener or cheaper to operate or even because of government incentives (although those are additional, feel-good benefits). They're buying them because they're better cars. Faster, quieter, more fun to drive, filled with the latest technology.
- jacquesm 11y ago
  > They're buying them because they're better cars. Faster, quieter, more fun to drive, filled with the latest technology. EV's are great for a number of use cases but they are not even close to a viable option for many uses of ICE's at the present. No doubt this will change but even if a Tesla is a 'better car' than my daily driver 'Faster', 'Quieter', 'more fun to drive' and 'filled with the latest technology' do not move the needle for me relative to 'can function anywhere on the European continent without any worry whatsoever', 'fuels up in < 5 minutes to 'full charge' and another 600 km of range', 'does not require specialty knowledge or a dealership for basic maintenance'. Oh, and if with 'faster' you are talking about acceleration then I really don't know why that would even be a factor because in normal daily driving that's the least of your problems and so on. This appears to be an argument based mostly on emotion rather than actual facts around transportation. Taxi services, commuting, local transport are all excellent use cases for EVs. Going longer distances a hybrid is right now probably the best you can do and it will be a while before EVs will be able to compete across the board with ICE's. You'll know when we have achieved parity because gas stations will start closing, or will replace pumps with EV super charging stations en-masse.
  - arethuza 11y ago
    Biggest problem for me with electric cars is the simple fact that I live in a flat - a very nice flat in a very nice European city [1]. Our car lives on the quiet street outside - so how, in the foreseeable future, would I get an electric car charged? NB Is anyone looking into solving this particular problem - because it's one that a lot of people will face. 1 - I mention this as it is inconceivable to me that I would move simply to have a different kind of car.
    - jzwinck 11y ago
      In London I had a neighbor with an electric car. It was parked on the street and plugged in using a long cord to its owner's building. Seemed to work ok, though it wasn't pretty. Plenty of street crime and vandals around, somehow they didn't seem to bother.
andersen1488 11y ago
> Chinese aren't buying Teslas because they want clean air even if they should Neither is anyone else. People buy Teslas because they are the best car money can buy.
- vinay427 11y ago
  >People buy Teslas because they are the best car money can buy. I can't imagine you can make a valid case that there is one best car that money can buy, presumably for everyone who can afford one.
  - andersen1488 11y ago
    The safest vehicle (not just cars, any vehicle) ever tested by the IIHS, and the highest aggregated reviews of any car ever seem to agree with me.
    - vinay427 11y ago
      1. IIHS safety tests are certainly not comprehensive, and you'd be hard pressed to find anyone at the IIHS who would claim so. 2. To match your claim, it would have to have the highest reviews on every publication/outlet. I'm simply pointing out how vast your claim is that somehow every single car buyer who can afford one would want to buy one. Think about the luxury large SUV market, or the coupe market, or the exotic coupe market, or the super-luxury sedan market, etc.
shifter 11y ago
> perhaps the electricity for charging comes from coal that is dirtier than gasoline engines Burning coal (especially when coupled with electric motors, which have efficiencies of 90%+) is more efficient than burning gasoline.

dragontamer 11y ago

On the contrary, Model S hasn't been doing well in China. Luxury electric vehicles is apparently an oxymoron in China. Unlike the US, Chinese consumers have a bunch of electric mopeds and scooters. The thought of charging your vehicle with electricity is seen as a low-class activity, for those who can't afford a "real gasoline" vehicle.