4 ms·

> the vast majority of manufacturing job losses have been due to automation, rather than competition from abroad Source?

crdoconnor 11y ago
>the vast majority of manufacturing job losses have been due to automation, rather than competition from abroad The reason why this lie is so commonly repeated is that technology makes a better scapegoat than the American elites for declining standards of living. You can't jab a pitchfork into technology. You can jab a pitchfork into the American elites who formulate trade policy that ships jobs overseas. This misdirection and the anger it fomented is largely responsible for the sudden rise of Donald Trump.
- TheOtherHobbes 11y ago
  ...Who plans to get rich by selling pitchforks, but has no intention of allowing them to be used - except possibly to remove his competitors. I'd guess that only around 10% of the US population - 20% at best - has any practical understanding of how the US economy and political system actually works. It's the easiest thing in the world to move blame towards immigrants, high rents, automation, Google, and just about any other target far removed from the actual architects of declining general living standards.
  - crdoconnor 11y ago
    We'll see. Trump has said that he will prevent TTIP/TPP and put a 40% tax on Chinese imports, but who knows if he will follow through. I certainly don't think that he'd be at all bothered by the economic fallout of those things.
    - logfromblammo 11y ago
      If Trump really wanted to make America great again, he'd drop all import tariffs, put a 40% tax on American exports, and throw some chum in the water. When the acquisition-merger frenzy dies down, the last corporations standing would not be ones that you would want to encounter in a dark alley. And, apparently, they would all be software development houses, agribusinesses, LEO launches, and pizza delivery chains. Americans would no longer do anything that they are not objectively best at doing in the global marketplace. They could not afford to even try anything else. But whatever. Let's just try the Hawley-Smoot tactic all over again, and see if it turns out differently this time.
      - marcosdumay 11y ago
        Why would you want to tax exports? It is as damaging as taxing imports, as it stands into exactly the same kind of barrier. It's way better to base taxation choices on the need to collect money, plus a rare, exceptional sin tax. Taxation choices based on commercial strategies are almost universally poor.
        logfromblammo 11y ago
        Sorry. That was intended to project as facetious. This US presidential elections cycle has made me more cynical and pessimistic than ever. I was just making a modest proposal for an all-new horribly bad idea rather than repeating the same old horribly bad idea once more. The best trade policy for everyone is to have no artificial barriers to trade at all. But such a policy cannot be as easily exploited for votes.
        marcosdumay 11y ago
        You simply won't get an argument about foreign commerce that sounds too stupid to be taken seriously. This export tax, for example, it was not only proposed but even implemented several times around the world - Russia has once gone to the extent of forbidding agricultural exports.
      - bbradley406 11y ago
        The further we get into the future, the more it resembles Snow Crash to me
pessimizer 11y ago
There is none, it's made up. Yearly productivity gains are lower than they've been since the late 70s, and well less than half of what they averaged from 1947-1973.
varjag 11y ago
..all the 1980s doomsday books about robots in Japan taking over the Western jobs. The lore lives, even if the robots in Japan turned out to be people in China.
stevetrewick 11y ago
[0] puts the figure [1] for import related job loss at 25-27 percent for losses in manufacturing, 10 for the wider US economy. Something else must have been responsible for the other 73-75 percent. [0] https://core.ac.uk/download/files/153/6793105.pdf https://core.ac.uk/download/files/153/6793105.pdf [1] Circa 1999, though.

crdoconnor 11y ago

>the vast majority of manufacturing job losses have been due to automation, rather than competition from abroad The reason why this lie is so commonly repeated is that technology makes a better scapegoat than the American elites for declining standards of living. You can't jab a pitchfork into technology. You can jab a pitchfork into the American elites who formulate trade policy that ships jobs overseas. This misdirection and the anger it fomented is largely responsible for the sudden rise of Donald Trump.

TheOtherHobbes 11y ago
...Who plans to get rich by selling pitchforks, but has no intention of allowing them to be used - except possibly to remove his competitors. I'd guess that only around 10% of the US population - 20% at best - has any practical understanding of how the US economy and political system actually works. It's the easiest thing in the world to move blame towards immigrants, high rents, automation, Google, and just about any other target far removed from the actual architects of declining general living standards.
- crdoconnor 11y ago
  We'll see. Trump has said that he will prevent TTIP/TPP and put a 40% tax on Chinese imports, but who knows if he will follow through. I certainly don't think that he'd be at all bothered by the economic fallout of those things.
  - logfromblammo 11y ago
    If Trump really wanted to make America great again, he'd drop all import tariffs, put a 40% tax on American exports, and throw some chum in the water. When the acquisition-merger frenzy dies down, the last corporations standing would not be ones that you would want to encounter in a dark alley. And, apparently, they would all be software development houses, agribusinesses, LEO launches, and pizza delivery chains. Americans would no longer do anything that they are not objectively best at doing in the global marketplace. They could not afford to even try anything else. But whatever. Let's just try the Hawley-Smoot tactic all over again, and see if it turns out differently this time.
    - marcosdumay 11y ago
      Why would you want to tax exports? It is as damaging as taxing imports, as it stands into exactly the same kind of barrier. It's way better to base taxation choices on the need to collect money, plus a rare, exceptional sin tax. Taxation choices based on commercial strategies are almost universally poor.
      - logfromblammo 11y ago
        Sorry. That was intended to project as facetious. This US presidential elections cycle has made me more cynical and pessimistic than ever. I was just making a modest proposal for an all-new horribly bad idea rather than repeating the same old horribly bad idea once more. The best trade policy for everyone is to have no artificial barriers to trade at all. But such a policy cannot be as easily exploited for votes.
        marcosdumay 11y ago
        You simply won't get an argument about foreign commerce that sounds too stupid to be taken seriously. This export tax, for example, it was not only proposed but even implemented several times around the world - Russia has once gone to the extent of forbidding agricultural exports.
    - bbradley406 11y ago
      The further we get into the future, the more it resembles Snow Crash to me

pessimizer 11y ago

There is none, it's made up. Yearly productivity gains are lower than they've been since the late 70s, and well less than half of what they averaged from 1947-1973.

varjag 11y ago

..all the 1980s doomsday books about robots in Japan taking over the Western jobs. The lore lives, even if the robots in Japan turned out to be people in China.

stevetrewick 11y ago

[0] puts the figure [1] for import related job loss at 25-27 percent for losses in manufacturing, 10 for the wider US economy. Something else must have been responsible for the other 73-75 percent. [0] https://core.ac.uk/download/files/153/6793105.pdf https://core.ac.uk/download/files/153/6793105.pdf [1] Circa 1999, though.