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This shows 2015 data. There were early adopters and it took some time for people to learn about Tesla. I think the same will be true for Model 3. It will requir

This shows 2015 data. There were early adopters and it took some time for people to learn about Tesla. I think the same will be true for Model 3. It will require a network effect of neighbors, friends, and coworkers to saturate demand potential. The biggest concern I have: superchargers. If they want to sell hundreds of thousands of Model 3 a year, what happens during Thanksgiving in the US? Newark, DE had 4 superchargers and they are now completing an upgrade to 12 or more. While there are other superchargers in New Jersey, Newark is a critical location between DC/NY/Philly and west. It takes 40 minutes to go from ~50 to 215 miles and that is if your supercharger isn't shared by another car (2 superchargers per transformer). Additionally, you won't get 215 miles because the heater will suck a lot of energy, and forget about charging to 300 unless you want to wait another 40+ minutes. My hope is that Tesla has the same vision as Nissan and others with wireless road charging. That sounds crazy and inefficient, but I don't see any way you are going to accommodate thousands of Model 3, Model S, and Model X drivers Thanksgiving 2018.

aerovistae 11y ago
Easily. The network is already massive and that's almost three years away. Most of the existing network was built in the last 3 years, and they have far more resources now than when they started, so you can count on the pace accelerating. Elon has said from day 1 that the supercharger network would be designed to grow ahead of demand. This is definitely well-planned for and not at all something they're sitting they're frantically wondering how they'll manage. According to their website, there are currently over 3500 superchargers. If they sell 500,000 cars in 2017, which of course they won't nor do they plan to, that's 142 drivers per charger if they didn't build any more. Imagine if you only had to share a gas station with 142 other people total. Do you think you'd ever even see them at all, let alone have to wait? Note that the geographic distribution of chargers matches the distribution of owners, i.e. more chargers in urban areas, so there will not be overload on some and underdemand on others.
- tw04 11y ago
  If it took me an hour to fill the tank - absolutely. It takes me less than 5 minutes and I often still have to wait in line if I'm forced to fill up on the way to, or way home from work.
  - aerovistae 11y ago
    But they know this, and will keep ahead of that demand. Thanksgiving 2018 is a long time away, and building more superchargers is the least of their engineering problems. Very easy to do. And I think you're not grasping how small a number 142 is for a full-fledged gas station. There are over 200 million people in the US with driver's licenses, and over 114,000 gas stations. If only half of those people are driving, that's almost 900 drivers per gas station. 142 is nothing! Particularly since this isn't accounting for the fact that many/most Tesla owners fill up at home. The competition for charging space you're anticipating is simply an imagined worry.
    - mattzito 11y ago
      Sure, but you get that the whole distribution model is different, right? Gas stations accept everyone who has a gas-powered vehicle, and take 5-10 minutes to fill up. Supercharger stations accept people who are on long trips and take 40-something minutes to fill up at best case. So it's reasonable to say that the usage patterns are totally different.
  - mikeash 11y ago
    But you never hit the Supercharger on your way to and from work, because you charge at home. You only need Superchargers on long trips. Most people will visit them only a few times a year, so the demand is much lower.
    - mattzito 11y ago
      Right, BUT - everyone tends to make those long trips at the same time. Thanksgiving, Mother's Day, Spring Break, Easter, Passover.
- pilingual 11y ago
  > This is definitely well-planned No, it isn't. First, Hawthorne has been a huge pain for owners. Lines waiting to charge. Second, there are several places which are mind-boggling as to why they "planned" it the way they did viz.: Philly to Pittsburgh you have to route through Baltimore and stop at Hagerstown in winter, then stop again at Somerset due to the massive elevation change. If Tesla had put a supercharger at Breezewood there'd be no problem. See the Tesla forum for complaints. > that's 142 drivers per charger This is a straw man. Few people will be charging at the Mitchell, SD supercharger. I chose Newark as an example because it is at a rest stop (contrast with others your have to go out of the way to get to) and it is right in the middle of a large metros. If you want to do the math on how many people will be stopping to charge there spending 30+ minutes each -- again, assuming you get the transformer to yourself -- I don't think it'll work out well.
  - aerovistae 11y ago
    Re: Hawthorne, I acknowledge it's not perfect and there will be kinks. And they'll get fixed. Just as the iPhone had imperfections, and they got worked out. Remember hearing people complain how you couldn't run multiple apps at once, a few years ago? Then that faded away, and sales were never slowed. I'm sure you're right, some areas will end up overburdened-- and they'll fix it.
  - rdtsc 11y ago
    I like Tesla because it is cool but I would never bother to alter my route or wait in line or do any of those things. Even if I only traveled 2-3 times a years. The reason is, if I buy a luxury/fun/toy car, it has to be a luxury/fun/toy, it cannot be a hassle. Waiting in lines and altering the route to charge is a hassle. I am glad others don't mind but even if I could afford it, until there is a better charging network or some kind of swappable battery thing or something else, I'll stick with hybrids or plain gasoline cars.
    - greglindahl 11y ago
      Yeah, you're definitely not in the Tesla demographic. When Consumer Reports dropped Tesla from the recommended list due to the number of repairs needed, they noted that an astonishing 97% of Tesla owners would buy another one... despite all the hassles. That says a lot about people who buy Teslas.
- csours 11y ago
  It takes me 5 minutes to put gas in my car. It takes 40 minutes to quick charge a Tesla (longer for other EVs) Also when analyzing scarcity of chargers you should look at popular travel routes, not population distribution. I'm not saying you're wrong, but your analysis is weak in those points. Disclaimer: I work for a competing car company, any opinions are solely my own.
  - GreenPlastic 11y ago
    Am I the only one who dreads going to the gas station and runs the car down to the absolute empty point before getting gas? I really don't ever want to go to a gas station again and would rarely use the supercharger network.
    - csours 11y ago
      There is a range of options nowadays. I think that the portion of liquid fuel only options will decrease over time, and the mix of PHEVs will increase sharply in the very near future. I think electric only makes a lot of sense for many applications, but certainly not all. Anyway, my points above were related to Supercharger congestion in holiday seasons - something that will be even crazier in the Chinese market with the Lunar New Year. I bring up China because they are the largest car market, and the Chinese govt is pushing for fuel efficiency and pollution reduction, both of which electric cars achieve.
    - ams6110 11y ago
      Dreads? That seems to me to be a overly strong reaction. Though if an EV meets your driving needs and you're able to charge it at home, etc. I can certainly see the appeal of not needing to bother with it.
    - lttlrck 11y ago
      Why do you dread going to the gas station?
    - Grishnakh 11y ago
      I don't dread it so much any more. Gas stations have gotten a LOT better in the past 5 years or so, at least here in the South. We've got Sheetz and Wawa, which are actually pretty nice to pull into. Everything's generally new, there's lots and lots of pumps, and if you need to use the bathroom or want to buy some snacks, the bathrooms are usually nice and clean and the food selection is pretty good for a quick-stop place. The newest ones even have made-to-order sandwiches and other lunch food. It's a huge difference from 20 years ago when gas stations were nasty, dingy places with the worst bathrooms in the world. It's not as good in the Northeast, however. Most of the gas stations up there tend to be small and pretty crappy.
will_hughes 11y ago
In-road charging is crazy, inefficient, and stupidly expensive. But mostly stupidly expensive. I also don't think it's necessary. As the number of electric cars increase, the number of places you can charge your car tends to increase too - and not just Tesla's own infrastructure, but the businesses that want your money too. You can see this already on sites like plugshare - the number of places that have some kind of charging infrastructure is quite widespread. I expect that more and more businesses which are adjacent to highways will be installing charging facilities in their parking lots for customers. You'll probably have to pay for charging, but it'll be more widespread.
- pilingual 11y ago
  Anything not supercharging is irrelevant when considering distance traveling. CHaDeMo and SAE are nice, but supercharging is time consuming as it is. There is a wireless car charging experiment going on in GB, and Nissan has this: https://youtu.be/9zZ2h2MRCe0?t=276 https://youtu.be/9zZ2h2MRCe0?t=276 Stopping to charge is unlikely the future, but it isn't clear what is.
  - will_hughes 11y ago
    I heard about the GB experiment - it's not a trial on public roads though. They have a lot of significant hurdles to get over to prove the technology is workable and worthwhile. The install and maintenance costs alone I suspect will kill it unless they can make it just as durable and easily repairable as the existing road surfaces.

aerovistae 11y ago

Easily. The network is already massive and that's almost three years away. Most of the existing network was built in the last 3 years, and they have far more resources now than when they started, so you can count on the pace accelerating. Elon has said from day 1 that the supercharger network would be designed to grow ahead of demand. This is definitely well-planned for and not at all something they're sitting they're frantically wondering how they'll manage. According to their website, there are currently over 3500 superchargers. If they sell 500,000 cars in 2017, which of course they won't nor do they plan to, that's 142 drivers per charger if they didn't build any more. Imagine if you only had to share a gas station with 142 other people total. Do you think you'd ever even see them at all, let alone have to wait? Note that the geographic distribution of chargers matches the distribution of owners, i.e. more chargers in urban areas, so there will not be overload on some and underdemand on others.

tw04 11y ago
If it took me an hour to fill the tank - absolutely. It takes me less than 5 minutes and I often still have to wait in line if I'm forced to fill up on the way to, or way home from work.
- aerovistae 11y ago
  But they know this, and will keep ahead of that demand. Thanksgiving 2018 is a long time away, and building more superchargers is the least of their engineering problems. Very easy to do. And I think you're not grasping how small a number 142 is for a full-fledged gas station. There are over 200 million people in the US with driver's licenses, and over 114,000 gas stations. If only half of those people are driving, that's almost 900 drivers per gas station. 142 is nothing! Particularly since this isn't accounting for the fact that many/most Tesla owners fill up at home. The competition for charging space you're anticipating is simply an imagined worry.
  - mattzito 11y ago
    Sure, but you get that the whole distribution model is different, right? Gas stations accept everyone who has a gas-powered vehicle, and take 5-10 minutes to fill up. Supercharger stations accept people who are on long trips and take 40-something minutes to fill up at best case. So it's reasonable to say that the usage patterns are totally different.
- mikeash 11y ago
  But you never hit the Supercharger on your way to and from work, because you charge at home. You only need Superchargers on long trips. Most people will visit them only a few times a year, so the demand is much lower.
  - mattzito 11y ago
    Right, BUT - everyone tends to make those long trips at the same time. Thanksgiving, Mother's Day, Spring Break, Easter, Passover.
pilingual 11y ago
> This is definitely well-planned No, it isn't. First, Hawthorne has been a huge pain for owners. Lines waiting to charge. Second, there are several places which are mind-boggling as to why they "planned" it the way they did viz.: Philly to Pittsburgh you have to route through Baltimore and stop at Hagerstown in winter, then stop again at Somerset due to the massive elevation change. If Tesla had put a supercharger at Breezewood there'd be no problem. See the Tesla forum for complaints. > that's 142 drivers per charger This is a straw man. Few people will be charging at the Mitchell, SD supercharger. I chose Newark as an example because it is at a rest stop (contrast with others your have to go out of the way to get to) and it is right in the middle of a large metros. If you want to do the math on how many people will be stopping to charge there spending 30+ minutes each -- again, assuming you get the transformer to yourself -- I don't think it'll work out well.
- aerovistae 11y ago
  Re: Hawthorne, I acknowledge it's not perfect and there will be kinks. And they'll get fixed. Just as the iPhone had imperfections, and they got worked out. Remember hearing people complain how you couldn't run multiple apps at once, a few years ago? Then that faded away, and sales were never slowed. I'm sure you're right, some areas will end up overburdened-- and they'll fix it.
- rdtsc 11y ago
  I like Tesla because it is cool but I would never bother to alter my route or wait in line or do any of those things. Even if I only traveled 2-3 times a years. The reason is, if I buy a luxury/fun/toy car, it has to be a luxury/fun/toy, it cannot be a hassle. Waiting in lines and altering the route to charge is a hassle. I am glad others don't mind but even if I could afford it, until there is a better charging network or some kind of swappable battery thing or something else, I'll stick with hybrids or plain gasoline cars.
  - greglindahl 11y ago
    Yeah, you're definitely not in the Tesla demographic. When Consumer Reports dropped Tesla from the recommended list due to the number of repairs needed, they noted that an astonishing 97% of Tesla owners would buy another one... despite all the hassles. That says a lot about people who buy Teslas.
csours 11y ago
It takes me 5 minutes to put gas in my car. It takes 40 minutes to quick charge a Tesla (longer for other EVs) Also when analyzing scarcity of chargers you should look at popular travel routes, not population distribution. I'm not saying you're wrong, but your analysis is weak in those points. Disclaimer: I work for a competing car company, any opinions are solely my own.
- GreenPlastic 11y ago
  Am I the only one who dreads going to the gas station and runs the car down to the absolute empty point before getting gas? I really don't ever want to go to a gas station again and would rarely use the supercharger network.
  - csours 11y ago
    There is a range of options nowadays. I think that the portion of liquid fuel only options will decrease over time, and the mix of PHEVs will increase sharply in the very near future. I think electric only makes a lot of sense for many applications, but certainly not all. Anyway, my points above were related to Supercharger congestion in holiday seasons - something that will be even crazier in the Chinese market with the Lunar New Year. I bring up China because they are the largest car market, and the Chinese govt is pushing for fuel efficiency and pollution reduction, both of which electric cars achieve.
  - ams6110 11y ago
    Dreads? That seems to me to be a overly strong reaction. Though if an EV meets your driving needs and you're able to charge it at home, etc. I can certainly see the appeal of not needing to bother with it.
  - lttlrck 11y ago
    Why do you dread going to the gas station?
  - Grishnakh 11y ago
    I don't dread it so much any more. Gas stations have gotten a LOT better in the past 5 years or so, at least here in the South. We've got Sheetz and Wawa, which are actually pretty nice to pull into. Everything's generally new, there's lots and lots of pumps, and if you need to use the bathroom or want to buy some snacks, the bathrooms are usually nice and clean and the food selection is pretty good for a quick-stop place. The newest ones even have made-to-order sandwiches and other lunch food. It's a huge difference from 20 years ago when gas stations were nasty, dingy places with the worst bathrooms in the world. It's not as good in the Northeast, however. Most of the gas stations up there tend to be small and pretty crappy.

will_hughes 11y ago

In-road charging is crazy, inefficient, and stupidly expensive. But mostly stupidly expensive. I also don't think it's necessary. As the number of electric cars increase, the number of places you can charge your car tends to increase too - and not just Tesla's own infrastructure, but the businesses that want your money too. You can see this already on sites like plugshare - the number of places that have some kind of charging infrastructure is quite widespread. I expect that more and more businesses which are adjacent to highways will be installing charging facilities in their parking lots for customers. You'll probably have to pay for charging, but it'll be more widespread.

pilingual 11y ago
Anything not supercharging is irrelevant when considering distance traveling. CHaDeMo and SAE are nice, but supercharging is time consuming as it is. There is a wireless car charging experiment going on in GB, and Nissan has this: https://youtu.be/9zZ2h2MRCe0?t=276 https://youtu.be/9zZ2h2MRCe0?t=276 Stopping to charge is unlikely the future, but it isn't clear what is.
- will_hughes 11y ago
  I heard about the GB experiment - it's not a trial on public roads though. They have a lot of significant hurdles to get over to prove the technology is workable and worthwhile. The install and maintenance costs alone I suspect will kill it unless they can make it just as durable and easily repairable as the existing road surfaces.