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Yes. We need more people like Langford and LeCun to push back on the AI hype. It's better for AI researchers to underpromise and overdeliver than the other way

by cs702 11y ago

Yes. We need more people like Langford and LeCun to push back on the AI hype. It's better for AI researchers to underpromise and overdeliver than the other way around. Otherwise we risk another "AI Winter," and that's no fun. The challenge is that to approximately 99.99% of the seven billion people on this planet, including roughly every journalist, the recent progress made by AI researchers is indistinguishable from "magic." When all those people try to reason about "magical things," they're bound to reach nonsensical conclusions and say nonsensical things. To them, debating on the promise of technologies like deep learning is a lot like debating how many angels can dance on the head of a pin.[1] -- [1] http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/1008/did-medieval-scholars-argue-over-how-many-angels-could-dance-on-the-head-of-a-pin http://www.straightdope.com/columns/read/1008/did-medieval-s...

tariqali34 11y ago
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. And while risking another AI Winter is no fun, it's possible that AI researchers are probably going to be sorely tempted to participate in the hype cycle as well. In fact, considering how much money is being poured into AI research, what is it to say that the hype has already just begun?
onion2k 11y ago
Undepromise and overdeliver works well when you're building something for a customer, but I suspect when you're trying to demonstrate a technology that has the potential to be scary in the eyes of the public downplaying what it can do is probably the worst possible strategy. The way to take away the fear of the unknown is to make it unsurprising; for the public to accept AI their expectations are going to have to match the reality quite closely. If AI does less than they expect they won't buy it, if it does more they'll see it as an invasion of their privacy and they won't buy it.
Certhas 11y ago
Then help scientists and researchers to change the current incentive structure, that heavily encourages over-promising. Simply saying "don't do it" wont help.

by cs702 11y ago

tariqali34 11y ago

Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic. And while risking another AI Winter is no fun, it's possible that AI researchers are probably going to be sorely tempted to participate in the hype cycle as well. In fact, considering how much money is being poured into AI research, what is it to say that the hype has already just begun?

onion2k 11y ago

Undepromise and overdeliver works well when you're building something for a customer, but I suspect when you're trying to demonstrate a technology that has the potential to be scary in the eyes of the public downplaying what it can do is probably the worst possible strategy. The way to take away the fear of the unknown is to make it unsurprising; for the public to accept AI their expectations are going to have to match the reality quite closely. If AI does less than they expect they won't buy it, if it does more they'll see it as an invasion of their privacy and they won't buy it.

Certhas 11y ago

Then help scientists and researchers to change the current incentive structure, that heavily encourages over-promising. Simply saying "don't do it" wont help.