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Did Lee Sedol have a reasonable idea of AlphaGo's recent strength? To put it more harshly, did DeepMind misrepresent the true strength of the program? I find i

Did Lee Sedol have a reasonable idea of AlphaGo's recent strength? To put it more harshly, did DeepMind misrepresent the true strength of the program? I find it very hard to find information about this online.

lukaslalinsky 11y ago
They challenged a top player for $1M. Doesn't that imply they think it's stronger than any human player?
- gus_massa 11y ago
  I think they expected that the computer to play a good game, but probably they were not sure about the outcome. Anyway, Google has Billons in the bank, so if they were defeated they would not miss that single Million too much.
- wolfgke 11y ago
  This can also imply that for Google it is worth $1M to know where AlphaGo still has weaknesses.
  - iainmerrick 11y ago
    Don't be silly, a Go AI has very little direct value for Google's business. But the publicity is great, easily worth $1M. More important is keeping the DeepMind team busy and engaged -- the real value is in spinning that know-how off into other projects.
    - wolfgke 11y ago
      > Don't be silly, a Go AI has very little direct value for Google's business. On the other hand: Knowing what makes some problems much easier for humans than for computers can have direct value on Google's business. Go was a hot candidate for a game with this property.
- Bud 11y ago
  It implies that it costs money to get a high-profile match against someone like Lee Sedol, and it costs money to draw public attention, and it implies that they thought they at least had a decent chance. Nothing more.
- fma 11y ago
  How much money do companies spend on Super Bowl ad for a 30 seconds of publicity. How much publicity has Google received for $1 million? (Much less than that actually, since they won)
- tim333 11y ago
  The $1M gets paid out by Google whether AlphaGo wins or loses. I just goes to charity if it wins.
- throw918791 11y ago
  This comment is the ignorant one, but perfect for HN where mass hysteria governs the voting.
lambda 11y ago
No, they did not misrepresent the strength of the program. They did not know the strength of the program. The purpose of the match with Lee Sedol was to determine that. So far, they have tested a previous iteration of the program against a much lower level professional, as well as all of the other Go engines they could test it against. It easily defeated all other Go AIs, but no previous Go AI has been able to compete at a professional level. It also defeated Fan Hui, the lower level professional, though it made several mistakes and lost a couple of the informal games (with lower time limits) it played against. Since then, they've had several months to tweak it, and then let it train against itself some more. The thing is, to really determine its strength, you need to have it play serious games against professional players. So there really was no good way for them to determine its strength without playing these games. It's possible that it only would have improved a little since it's games with Fan Hui; in that case, the match with Lee Sedol may have been easy for him. However, it appears that it has improved substantially.
return0 11y ago
He knows it beat the european champion 5-0, and that it outperforms all commercial and free Go games.
- pixl97 11y ago
  Which was meaningless at the time, and I don't think he knew that game beat the European champ until shortly before his game. The difference between the two champions was so large that Lee would be expected to win 95% of the time. All other Go AI was exceptionally weak when compared to the top level players.
  - sp332 11y ago
    It may have been meaningless, but it's all the information the researchers had either. I don't think they misrepresented anything.
jonknee 11y ago
If he didn't before game one he definitely did afterwards. I have a hard time believing it would be easy or that he didn't try as hard as he could.

lukaslalinsky 11y ago

They challenged a top player for $1M. Doesn't that imply they think it's stronger than any human player?

gus_massa 11y ago
I think they expected that the computer to play a good game, but probably they were not sure about the outcome. Anyway, Google has Billons in the bank, so if they were defeated they would not miss that single Million too much.
wolfgke 11y ago
This can also imply that for Google it is worth $1M to know where AlphaGo still has weaknesses.
- iainmerrick 11y ago
  Don't be silly, a Go AI has very little direct value for Google's business. But the publicity is great, easily worth $1M. More important is keeping the DeepMind team busy and engaged -- the real value is in spinning that know-how off into other projects.
  - wolfgke 11y ago
    > Don't be silly, a Go AI has very little direct value for Google's business. On the other hand: Knowing what makes some problems much easier for humans than for computers can have direct value on Google's business. Go was a hot candidate for a game with this property.
Bud 11y ago
It implies that it costs money to get a high-profile match against someone like Lee Sedol, and it costs money to draw public attention, and it implies that they thought they at least had a decent chance. Nothing more.
fma 11y ago
How much money do companies spend on Super Bowl ad for a 30 seconds of publicity. How much publicity has Google received for $1 million? (Much less than that actually, since they won)
tim333 11y ago
The $1M gets paid out by Google whether AlphaGo wins or loses. I just goes to charity if it wins.
throw918791 11y ago
This comment is the ignorant one, but perfect for HN where mass hysteria governs the voting.

lambda 11y ago

No, they did not misrepresent the strength of the program. They did not know the strength of the program. The purpose of the match with Lee Sedol was to determine that. So far, they have tested a previous iteration of the program against a much lower level professional, as well as all of the other Go engines they could test it against. It easily defeated all other Go AIs, but no previous Go AI has been able to compete at a professional level. It also defeated Fan Hui, the lower level professional, though it made several mistakes and lost a couple of the informal games (with lower time limits) it played against. Since then, they've had several months to tweak it, and then let it train against itself some more. The thing is, to really determine its strength, you need to have it play serious games against professional players. So there really was no good way for them to determine its strength without playing these games. It's possible that it only would have improved a little since it's games with Fan Hui; in that case, the match with Lee Sedol may have been easy for him. However, it appears that it has improved substantially.

return0 11y ago

He knows it beat the european champion 5-0, and that it outperforms all commercial and free Go games.

pixl97 11y ago
Which was meaningless at the time, and I don't think he knew that game beat the European champ until shortly before his game. The difference between the two champions was so large that Lee would be expected to win 95% of the time. All other Go AI was exceptionally weak when compared to the top level players.
- sp332 11y ago
  It may have been meaningless, but it's all the information the researchers had either. I don't think they misrepresented anything.

jonknee 11y ago

If he didn't before game one he definitely did afterwards. I have a hard time believing it would be easy or that he didn't try as hard as he could.