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The Chinese 9 Dan player Ke Jie basically said the game is lost after around 40 mins or so. He still thinks that he has a 60% chance of winning against AlphaGo

The Chinese 9 Dan player Ke Jie basically said the game is lost after around 40 mins or so. He still thinks that he has a 60% chance of winning against AlphaGo (down from 100% on day one). But I doubt Google will bother to go to China and challenge him.

Radim 11y ago
Challenging Ke Jie is way too small a goal for DeepMind at this point. I wonder if even the idea from the AGA stream today, to get all the best pros in the world together and challenge AlphaGo as a team, is enough. Perhaps releasing the core AlphaGo as open source (to the extent it's not dependent on internal Google machinery), or at least publishing its trained model, may be the next step. Let people "challenge themselves" however they want. EDIT: Also, Lee Sedol had his time in the sun, but commiserations to Ke Jie. He's just 19, already number #1 in the world, his whole career in front of him... and this happens.
- nkurz 11y ago
  I wonder if even the idea from the AGA stream today, to get all the best pros in the world together and challenge AlphaGo as a team, is enough. Has this been tried? That is, have Players 2-9 (or some subset) ever competed as a group against a dominant Player 1? Unless it's been tested, I wouldn't take it for granted that a group would beat an individual.
  - abecedarius 11y ago
    I wouldn't know, but https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kasparov_versus_the_World https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kasparov_versus_the_World happened in chess. > He later said, "It is the greatest game in the history of chess. The sheer number of ideas, the complexity, and the contribution it has made to chess make it the most important game ever played."
  - Radim 11y ago
    Sure. Check out the "game of the century". There Go Seigen, the genius who brought about the Go revolution that Redmond talked about at post-game conf today, was beaten by Honinbou Shusai + his students. Also, "lesser" pros routinely call out mistakes in master games (and the masters agree). Games are often decided by easily avoidable mistakes, even at the highest level.
  - fma 11y ago
    Too many chiefs in a village. Can you imagine trying to explain why this move is correct because "20 moves in the future" it proves to be right. It would probably take an hour per move. Also I mentioned in a previous post...the human style of playing go needs to adapt to AlphaGo. That's why the commentators say "oh that was odd" since a human would not make that move as its unorthodox, but turns out to be right. If the top 1-10 had a chance to play AlphaGo privately for months they may have a better chance.
    - iopq 11y ago
      It works somewhat well in con-go.net, even if I disagree with a lot of the move ordering as of late. But I am on the white team and we're winning, so I guess the black team made more mistakes.
  - RobAtticus 11y ago
    Not really 1 vs 2-9, but a billionaire named Andy Beal liked to go to Vegas and play poker pros in really high stakes (to get them out of their comfort zone). It was him vs "The Corporation". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Beal#Poker_playing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Beal#Poker_playing
- bluecalm 11y ago
  I really hope they bother with one more match at least. It was a pity human vs computer idea basically died in chess after very unconvincing win by Deep Blue (even though it lost 2 previous matches). Humans had at least a few years more of good resistance back then. I can think of a worthy goal for AlphaGo: make a program which can play better than top pros which runs on a macbook pro.
  - daveguy 11y ago
    Closer to their goal: Make a generalized AlphaGo program that runs on a computer no heavier than 3.3 lbs and uses less than 20 watts of power. Macbook pro is currently 30 watts and 4.5 lbs. So, that's pretty close. But the parent company, Google DeepMind, doesn't have go playing as their ultimate goal.
- pedrosorio 11y ago
  Regarding Ke Jie's future, Magnus Carlsen doesn't seem to be doing too bad, and DeepBlue happened almost 20 years ago.
  - fma 11y ago
    People don't watch games because the players are the best in the world. I'm an avid tennis fan. If we build a humanoid that can run faster, hit harder, hit more accurately and never gets tiredI would say...good job...Now get out and put the humans on the court. We enjoy relating to the players, see how far they push their boundaries, see them make mistakes, recover from mistakes... And on that note, hopefully there will not be cheating scandals like in chess where players have an ear piece and someone in the back communicates what move to place based on computer output.
- rhaps0dy 11y ago
  > and this happens Chess competitions are still going strong. Also, human runners do not compete against cars.
partycoder 11y ago
AlphaGo has also improved very quickly. Without doubt, the AlphaGo seen playing against Fan Hui would have lost against Lee Sedol. But in a couple of months its playing level raised significantly. Lee Sedol said he could beat AlphaGo, based on the Fan Hui games. Ke Jie said he could beat AlphaGo, based on the Lee Sedol games. Ke Jie belongs to a similar category than Lee Sedol, and we could see how Lee Sedol was completely dominated by AlphaGo, 3-0 so far. It is not unreasonable to say AlphaGo will most likely beat Ke Jie, and even if that doesn't happen the first time, AlphaGo can be improved by adding more infrastructure and training time.
- nsajko 11y ago
  That is obvious, and Ke Jie also said so.
- tunichtgut 11y ago
  He said with the same conditions, his chances are 40:60 in favor of him winning.
  - daveguy 11y ago
    That would be about right considering Ke Jie is 8-2 vs Lee Sedol and assuming Lee wins one. That assumes that we are seeing AlphaGo's strongest game and not its "just past the current opponent" game. If Lee doesn't win any then it is very difficult to estimate AlphaGo's strength from the games. If Lee wins one game then a 50-50 AlphaGo vs Ke Jie would be expected.
- tel 11y ago
  While AlphaGo has been improving, it's also a little hard to see whether AG playing Fan Hui wasn't already strong enough to defeat LSD. MCTS picks the move most probable to win and if AG gets an early advantage it'll play slack for the rest of the game taking moves which never reduce its win rate even if they look boring and weak.

Radim 11y ago

Challenging Ke Jie is way too small a goal for DeepMind at this point. I wonder if even the idea from the AGA stream today, to get all the best pros in the world together and challenge AlphaGo as a team, is enough. Perhaps releasing the core AlphaGo as open source (to the extent it's not dependent on internal Google machinery), or at least publishing its trained model, may be the next step. Let people "challenge themselves" however they want. EDIT: Also, Lee Sedol had his time in the sun, but commiserations to Ke Jie. He's just 19, already number #1 in the world, his whole career in front of him... and this happens.

nkurz 11y ago
I wonder if even the idea from the AGA stream today, to get all the best pros in the world together and challenge AlphaGo as a team, is enough. Has this been tried? That is, have Players 2-9 (or some subset) ever competed as a group against a dominant Player 1? Unless it's been tested, I wouldn't take it for granted that a group would beat an individual.
- abecedarius 11y ago
  I wouldn't know, but https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kasparov_versus_the_World https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kasparov_versus_the_World happened in chess. > He later said, "It is the greatest game in the history of chess. The sheer number of ideas, the complexity, and the contribution it has made to chess make it the most important game ever played."
- Radim 11y ago
  Sure. Check out the "game of the century". There Go Seigen, the genius who brought about the Go revolution that Redmond talked about at post-game conf today, was beaten by Honinbou Shusai + his students. Also, "lesser" pros routinely call out mistakes in master games (and the masters agree). Games are often decided by easily avoidable mistakes, even at the highest level.
- fma 11y ago
  Too many chiefs in a village. Can you imagine trying to explain why this move is correct because "20 moves in the future" it proves to be right. It would probably take an hour per move. Also I mentioned in a previous post...the human style of playing go needs to adapt to AlphaGo. That's why the commentators say "oh that was odd" since a human would not make that move as its unorthodox, but turns out to be right. If the top 1-10 had a chance to play AlphaGo privately for months they may have a better chance.
  - iopq 11y ago
    It works somewhat well in con-go.net, even if I disagree with a lot of the move ordering as of late. But I am on the white team and we're winning, so I guess the black team made more mistakes.
- RobAtticus 11y ago
  Not really 1 vs 2-9, but a billionaire named Andy Beal liked to go to Vegas and play poker pros in really high stakes (to get them out of their comfort zone). It was him vs "The Corporation". https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Beal#Poker_playing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Beal#Poker_playing
bluecalm 11y ago
I really hope they bother with one more match at least. It was a pity human vs computer idea basically died in chess after very unconvincing win by Deep Blue (even though it lost 2 previous matches). Humans had at least a few years more of good resistance back then. I can think of a worthy goal for AlphaGo: make a program which can play better than top pros which runs on a macbook pro.
- daveguy 11y ago
  Closer to their goal: Make a generalized AlphaGo program that runs on a computer no heavier than 3.3 lbs and uses less than 20 watts of power. Macbook pro is currently 30 watts and 4.5 lbs. So, that's pretty close. But the parent company, Google DeepMind, doesn't have go playing as their ultimate goal.
pedrosorio 11y ago
Regarding Ke Jie's future, Magnus Carlsen doesn't seem to be doing too bad, and DeepBlue happened almost 20 years ago.
- fma 11y ago
  People don't watch games because the players are the best in the world. I'm an avid tennis fan. If we build a humanoid that can run faster, hit harder, hit more accurately and never gets tiredI would say...good job...Now get out and put the humans on the court. We enjoy relating to the players, see how far they push their boundaries, see them make mistakes, recover from mistakes... And on that note, hopefully there will not be cheating scandals like in chess where players have an ear piece and someone in the back communicates what move to place based on computer output.
rhaps0dy 11y ago
> and this happens Chess competitions are still going strong. Also, human runners do not compete against cars.

partycoder 11y ago

AlphaGo has also improved very quickly. Without doubt, the AlphaGo seen playing against Fan Hui would have lost against Lee Sedol. But in a couple of months its playing level raised significantly. Lee Sedol said he could beat AlphaGo, based on the Fan Hui games. Ke Jie said he could beat AlphaGo, based on the Lee Sedol games. Ke Jie belongs to a similar category than Lee Sedol, and we could see how Lee Sedol was completely dominated by AlphaGo, 3-0 so far. It is not unreasonable to say AlphaGo will most likely beat Ke Jie, and even if that doesn't happen the first time, AlphaGo can be improved by adding more infrastructure and training time.

nsajko 11y ago
That is obvious, and Ke Jie also said so.
tunichtgut 11y ago
He said with the same conditions, his chances are 40:60 in favor of him winning.
- daveguy 11y ago
  That would be about right considering Ke Jie is 8-2 vs Lee Sedol and assuming Lee wins one. That assumes that we are seeing AlphaGo's strongest game and not its "just past the current opponent" game. If Lee doesn't win any then it is very difficult to estimate AlphaGo's strength from the games. If Lee wins one game then a 50-50 AlphaGo vs Ke Jie would be expected.
tel 11y ago
While AlphaGo has been improving, it's also a little hard to see whether AG playing Fan Hui wasn't already strong enough to defeat LSD. MCTS picks the move most probable to win and if AG gets an early advantage it'll play slack for the rest of the game taking moves which never reduce its win rate even if they look boring and weak.