11 ms·

HN LOVES the idea of bad things happening. As someone who's clients are all Chinese - there is not a better time to be in the Chinese market. China is quickly

HN LOVES the idea of bad things happening. As someone who's clients are all Chinese - there is not a better time to be in the Chinese market. China is quickly translating into a service powerhouse, I wouldn't be surprised if china will stop needing wallstreet to finance itself within the next 5 years. If you are in the SaaS business - china is where you need to be to make bank. Chinese millennials are rich, optimistic and are amazingly good adopters of technology. The chinese software market is also extremely young - unlike the saturated western ones. So even building simple service-automation/web-service will make you millions. Its almost laughable to me these days that an amazing company like netflix can only charge 5 dollars in america while in china people are spending insane amount of money online for really simple services.

jonknee 11y ago
> I wouldn't be surprised if china will stop needing wallstreet to finance itself within the next 5 years. China doesn't currently need Wall Street, they have their own powerful central bank and tons of domestically held debt thanks to their very high export surplus and savings rate.
partiallypro 11y ago
No one is saying you can't make money in China anymore, only that the data coming out of China is really bad considering their huge growth over the past 20 years. They have a growth target between 6.5% and 7%, in the U.S. we would kill for that...but in China that is very much subpar.
- dragonbonheur 11y ago
  US citizens getting worried about China's finances and growth are akin to peasants getting worried about the finances of noblemen. Right now the US Congress is seriously considering giving corporations a "tax forgiveness" to the tune of $400 billion. When US citizens are abroad, they have to pay US taxes even if they haven't set foot on US territory for years. That rule doesn't apply to corporations. Do you find that fair? The establishment media continually fools US citizens by giving them distractions such as: "China is crashing!!!" - "Chinese growth is going down!!!" - "Corruption in China rampant!!!" - "China preparing for WAR!!!" Easy distractions like these have only one purpose: to distract US citizens from noticing that they are being defrauded by everyone they put in charge to run their country. It's as simple as that.
- wrong_variable 11y ago
  I agree with you - its irrelevant to the discussion at hand. What I am merrily pointing out is that as china moves from a export oriented country into a service based economy, Reducing its import/export is a target . Since their own leadership wants china to transition to a "new normal". China has a huge cannon ( in terms of controlling a vast amount of humanity's capable hands ). It seems now instead of using it to awash the world with manufactured good they are refocusing it on services. Measuring output from services is extremely hard - since its investment in human capital, rather than physical goods. The point I am trying to make is that this is a good thing. It means their is going to be investment in law,education,fiance,software,intellectual property,health-care ... This will give breathing room for other developing countries to take up china's slack and allow china to innovate in the place where it really helps humanity move forward. We all want cheaper healthcare and cheaper education. TL:DR good news !
  - partiallypro 11y ago
    It's good news in the longer run (more than 2 years,) in the short run it can cause serious problems for global markets are they adjust to the new environment. The big time bomb from this is the debt market taken on by commodity based companies which could infect investment grade bonds.
  - TheLogothete 11y ago
    >It seems now instead of using it to awash the world with manufactured good they are refocusing it on services. Yeah, that's easier said than done.
rahimnathwani 11y ago
"Its almost laughable to me these days that an amazing company like netflix can only charge 5 dollars in america while in china people are spending insane amount of money online for really simple services." I'm not sure where you get this impression. Online services in China are extremely competitive. Netflix is $8 per month in the US, or $10 per month if you want HD. Tencent video in China is 20RMB (~$3) per month. Most of their content is available for free if you don't mind ads. Another comparison: - Dropbox: 1TB for $99 per year. - Baidu Yun: 5TB for $15 per year.
- jorgecurio 11y ago
  Well when you compare the average income of an American vs Chinese which haven't reached even Japan's level, I would say Japan would be a better market for SaaS considering they have the money to pay (or should according to income levels). Also consider the non existant IP laws or any type of bad actor reducing enforcement mechanisms that exist in North America and Europe, means you are in a much more crowded and competitive market.
  - adventured 11y ago
    The median income in China is between 1/15th and 1/20th that of Japan. I don't think it makes much sense to compare any first world nation to the median income (or average either) in China.
    - spangry 11y ago
      This is an important point. Marginal income increases for the already wealthy does little to support domestic consumption. In economic parlance, the rich have a low marginal propensity to consume. In China's case specifically, the rich are more likely to see any additional income as capital they need to get out of the country (hence China's progressive tightening of capital controls). On the upside, it means the Chinese government have an obvious demographic to target with a stimulus package: the poor. They have a very high MPC because they need to spend every additional dollar on things like... food. EDIT: Just to give you a sense of how crafty the rich and corrupt are when it comes to capital flight from China, again from HSBC: Meanwhile, imports from Hong Kong surged by 88% in February, but we think this was because of base effects again rather than increased over-invoicing activities compared with previous months – the level of imports from Hong Kong is actually down in Jan-Feb compared with in Nov-Dec 2015. Now read this: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-08/phantom-goods-disguise-billions-in-china-illicit-money-outflows http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-08/phantom-go...
jorgecurio 11y ago
You know how I know when to pull my money out from the stock market? When your neighbor tells you to invest money in the stock market. The idea is that there's a big lag between when the smart money have left and when ordinary people start crowding in. Same with China. Now I'm hearing from friends somehow China is the place to be that gravity is Falun Gong and doesn't exist and China will overtake United States in 10 years, and other extreme optimism that reminds me a lot about past bubbles. But I'm interested to know if you have any source on SaaS in China. I am optimistic about China in the long run but not with the current communist government. Only when China is unrestricted from free trade of knowledge, information and expression, only when such basic human rights guaranteed in other developed Western nations are present, can China truly become something worthy to be taken seriously. Who want's to live in a China even Chinese people don't like or want to stay in? If you haven't noticed all the rich chinese people are getting the fuck out of China, people are so desperate that they are willing to embezzle, corrupt, steal, kill, fuck over anything or anyone. You really expect SV companies to uproot and start a new life in China? Are China thumpers really this naive?
- dragonbonheur 11y ago
  You'd better get used to that Chinese government, it's here to stay. Besides, what do you want? For the Communist party to devolve into US congress? And about those supposed Chinese people who don't want to stay - just like some minority of the US population doesn't want to pay their fair share of taxes or contribute positively to their local society and have thus mastered the shell company and tax haven game, there exists an equivalent minority of the Chinese population who don't want to do their part either and who are well-off enough to be noticed by foreign media when they move in expensive neighborhoods in western countries. The Chinese population being higher, that percentage of rich people fleeing will also be higher. And about China being taken seriously - are you really that naïve NOT to take them seriously? Do you not take the formidable number of Chinese people that have been lifted off abject poverty seriously? Do you not take the millions of kilometers of railroad that have been built both within and outside China by Chinese companies and people seriously? Do you not take the infrastructure that has been built, no questions asked, in Africa seriously while western nations have only taken from Africa while giving nothing in return except conflict and weapons? Do you not take seriously the information that a Chinese company, COSCO, recently became the operator of Greece's ports? Do you not take seriously that Chinese entrepreneurs, often being from a modest background themselves, left their country for Sub-Saharian Africa and Egypt and even Ethiopia and have become of the main providers of employment and growth and even HOPE-you-can-believe-in in those countries? I'm not a "China thumper", I'm not Chinese or even Asian - I just see the world as it is. I've seen the corruption in US government and I know about the pentagon's revolving door. It's also obvious that the British and to a somewhat lesser extent the French governments are sellouts of the oligarchs. If you want to argue about corruption in the Chinese government know first that their officials and their families are shown what life is like in prison when they take office so that they know the consequences of temptation. Maybe next you'd want to argue that China allegedly "stole" some islands in the South China Sea and is now threatening everyone, allegedly. Well, I'd argue that in 2011 an agreement was reached among SOVEREIGN (very important here and thus in caps) ASEAN nations and the Philippines decided to call in the oh-so-righteous United States to get things moving in their favor, thus the current clusterfuck. And besides the US and Britain already set the precedent by stealing the Chagos Archipelago and within it, Diego Garcia. Also note that they also unceremoniously removed all the inhabitants of these islands who were only allowed to carry ONE SINGLE BRIEFCASE worth of their possessions when they were put in the bottom of boats where quite a few got ill and even died. Then the US and Britain went on and declared the Chagos a marine protected area to obliterate any possibility that the Chagossians could return to their land. A marine protected area where they could safely keep nuclear weapons... What China is doing in the South China Sea, building islands and infrastructure to fight against piracy and more important, ensure safe harbor for ships in a world that will be increasingly affected by climate change, is patty cakes in comparison to what western nations have done. I believe the world needs balance - therefore it can't all be the oh-so-righteous Western system of "governance". A balance of power, a balance of opinions, a balance of superpowers. And having seen how corrupt and destructive Western governments have been and can be, my opinion -and mine only - is that China represent a good counterpoint to that corruption and destruction. China represents progress and hope in the long run. It's more likely that universal basic income and a post-scarcity society will come,and will be sustained, from Chinese culture and system of government than anywhere else. Why? Because it's the country where even farmers are crazy enough to build helicopters, submarines and robots for a hobby and in this world, the ones who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.
dangrover 11y ago
I am an American working in a Chinese tech company, and I was also curious to know where you get this sense of being willing to spend more. Most of the Netflix/Spotify/Dropbox/Hulu equivalents are far cheaper and have far more extensive free options than in the West. Some companies certainly make bank on online games here though! Aside from that, I agree on the market being young and having different possibilities here than in the west, and also with people being good adopters of technology.

jonknee 11y ago

> I wouldn't be surprised if china will stop needing wallstreet to finance itself within the next 5 years. China doesn't currently need Wall Street, they have their own powerful central bank and tons of domestically held debt thanks to their very high export surplus and savings rate.

partiallypro 11y ago

No one is saying you can't make money in China anymore, only that the data coming out of China is really bad considering their huge growth over the past 20 years. They have a growth target between 6.5% and 7%, in the U.S. we would kill for that...but in China that is very much subpar.

dragonbonheur 11y ago
US citizens getting worried about China's finances and growth are akin to peasants getting worried about the finances of noblemen. Right now the US Congress is seriously considering giving corporations a "tax forgiveness" to the tune of $400 billion. When US citizens are abroad, they have to pay US taxes even if they haven't set foot on US territory for years. That rule doesn't apply to corporations. Do you find that fair? The establishment media continually fools US citizens by giving them distractions such as: "China is crashing!!!" - "Chinese growth is going down!!!" - "Corruption in China rampant!!!" - "China preparing for WAR!!!" Easy distractions like these have only one purpose: to distract US citizens from noticing that they are being defrauded by everyone they put in charge to run their country. It's as simple as that.
wrong_variable 11y ago
I agree with you - its irrelevant to the discussion at hand. What I am merrily pointing out is that as china moves from a export oriented country into a service based economy, Reducing its import/export is a target . Since their own leadership wants china to transition to a "new normal". China has a huge cannon ( in terms of controlling a vast amount of humanity's capable hands ). It seems now instead of using it to awash the world with manufactured good they are refocusing it on services. Measuring output from services is extremely hard - since its investment in human capital, rather than physical goods. The point I am trying to make is that this is a good thing. It means their is going to be investment in law,education,fiance,software,intellectual property,health-care ... This will give breathing room for other developing countries to take up china's slack and allow china to innovate in the place where it really helps humanity move forward. We all want cheaper healthcare and cheaper education. TL:DR good news !
- partiallypro 11y ago
  It's good news in the longer run (more than 2 years,) in the short run it can cause serious problems for global markets are they adjust to the new environment. The big time bomb from this is the debt market taken on by commodity based companies which could infect investment grade bonds.
- TheLogothete 11y ago
  >It seems now instead of using it to awash the world with manufactured good they are refocusing it on services. Yeah, that's easier said than done.

rahimnathwani 11y ago

"Its almost laughable to me these days that an amazing company like netflix can only charge 5 dollars in america while in china people are spending insane amount of money online for really simple services." I'm not sure where you get this impression. Online services in China are extremely competitive. Netflix is $8 per month in the US, or $10 per month if you want HD. Tencent video in China is 20RMB (~$3) per month. Most of their content is available for free if you don't mind ads. Another comparison: - Dropbox: 1TB for $99 per year. - Baidu Yun: 5TB for $15 per year.

jorgecurio 11y ago
Well when you compare the average income of an American vs Chinese which haven't reached even Japan's level, I would say Japan would be a better market for SaaS considering they have the money to pay (or should according to income levels). Also consider the non existant IP laws or any type of bad actor reducing enforcement mechanisms that exist in North America and Europe, means you are in a much more crowded and competitive market.
- adventured 11y ago
  The median income in China is between 1/15th and 1/20th that of Japan. I don't think it makes much sense to compare any first world nation to the median income (or average either) in China.
  - spangry 11y ago
    This is an important point. Marginal income increases for the already wealthy does little to support domestic consumption. In economic parlance, the rich have a low marginal propensity to consume. In China's case specifically, the rich are more likely to see any additional income as capital they need to get out of the country (hence China's progressive tightening of capital controls). On the upside, it means the Chinese government have an obvious demographic to target with a stimulus package: the poor. They have a very high MPC because they need to spend every additional dollar on things like... food. EDIT: Just to give you a sense of how crafty the rich and corrupt are when it comes to capital flight from China, again from HSBC: Meanwhile, imports from Hong Kong surged by 88% in February, but we think this was because of base effects again rather than increased over-invoicing activities compared with previous months – the level of imports from Hong Kong is actually down in Jan-Feb compared with in Nov-Dec 2015. Now read this: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-08/phantom-goods-disguise-billions-in-china-illicit-money-outflows http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-03-08/phantom-go...

jorgecurio 11y ago

You know how I know when to pull my money out from the stock market? When your neighbor tells you to invest money in the stock market. The idea is that there's a big lag between when the smart money have left and when ordinary people start crowding in. Same with China. Now I'm hearing from friends somehow China is the place to be that gravity is Falun Gong and doesn't exist and China will overtake United States in 10 years, and other extreme optimism that reminds me a lot about past bubbles. But I'm interested to know if you have any source on SaaS in China. I am optimistic about China in the long run but not with the current communist government. Only when China is unrestricted from free trade of knowledge, information and expression, only when such basic human rights guaranteed in other developed Western nations are present, can China truly become something worthy to be taken seriously. Who want's to live in a China even Chinese people don't like or want to stay in? If you haven't noticed all the rich chinese people are getting the fuck out of China, people are so desperate that they are willing to embezzle, corrupt, steal, kill, fuck over anything or anyone. You really expect SV companies to uproot and start a new life in China? Are China thumpers really this naive?

dragonbonheur 11y ago
You'd better get used to that Chinese government, it's here to stay. Besides, what do you want? For the Communist party to devolve into US congress? And about those supposed Chinese people who don't want to stay - just like some minority of the US population doesn't want to pay their fair share of taxes or contribute positively to their local society and have thus mastered the shell company and tax haven game, there exists an equivalent minority of the Chinese population who don't want to do their part either and who are well-off enough to be noticed by foreign media when they move in expensive neighborhoods in western countries. The Chinese population being higher, that percentage of rich people fleeing will also be higher. And about China being taken seriously - are you really that naïve NOT to take them seriously? Do you not take the formidable number of Chinese people that have been lifted off abject poverty seriously? Do you not take the millions of kilometers of railroad that have been built both within and outside China by Chinese companies and people seriously? Do you not take the infrastructure that has been built, no questions asked, in Africa seriously while western nations have only taken from Africa while giving nothing in return except conflict and weapons? Do you not take seriously the information that a Chinese company, COSCO, recently became the operator of Greece's ports? Do you not take seriously that Chinese entrepreneurs, often being from a modest background themselves, left their country for Sub-Saharian Africa and Egypt and even Ethiopia and have become of the main providers of employment and growth and even HOPE-you-can-believe-in in those countries? I'm not a "China thumper", I'm not Chinese or even Asian - I just see the world as it is. I've seen the corruption in US government and I know about the pentagon's revolving door. It's also obvious that the British and to a somewhat lesser extent the French governments are sellouts of the oligarchs. If you want to argue about corruption in the Chinese government know first that their officials and their families are shown what life is like in prison when they take office so that they know the consequences of temptation. Maybe next you'd want to argue that China allegedly "stole" some islands in the South China Sea and is now threatening everyone, allegedly. Well, I'd argue that in 2011 an agreement was reached among SOVEREIGN (very important here and thus in caps) ASEAN nations and the Philippines decided to call in the oh-so-righteous United States to get things moving in their favor, thus the current clusterfuck. And besides the US and Britain already set the precedent by stealing the Chagos Archipelago and within it, Diego Garcia. Also note that they also unceremoniously removed all the inhabitants of these islands who were only allowed to carry ONE SINGLE BRIEFCASE worth of their possessions when they were put in the bottom of boats where quite a few got ill and even died. Then the US and Britain went on and declared the Chagos a marine protected area to obliterate any possibility that the Chagossians could return to their land. A marine protected area where they could safely keep nuclear weapons... What China is doing in the South China Sea, building islands and infrastructure to fight against piracy and more important, ensure safe harbor for ships in a world that will be increasingly affected by climate change, is patty cakes in comparison to what western nations have done. I believe the world needs balance - therefore it can't all be the oh-so-righteous Western system of "governance". A balance of power, a balance of opinions, a balance of superpowers. And having seen how corrupt and destructive Western governments have been and can be, my opinion -and mine only - is that China represent a good counterpoint to that corruption and destruction. China represents progress and hope in the long run. It's more likely that universal basic income and a post-scarcity society will come,and will be sustained, from Chinese culture and system of government than anywhere else. Why? Because it's the country where even farmers are crazy enough to build helicopters, submarines and robots for a hobby and in this world, the ones who are crazy enough to think they can change the world are the ones who do.

dangrover 11y ago

I am an American working in a Chinese tech company, and I was also curious to know where you get this sense of being willing to spend more. Most of the Netflix/Spotify/Dropbox/Hulu equivalents are far cheaper and have far more extensive free options than in the West. Some companies certainly make bank on online games here though! Aside from that, I agree on the market being young and having different possibilities here than in the west, and also with people being good adopters of technology.