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> The latest data from the U.S. Border Patrol shows that last year, marijuana seizures along the southwest border tumbled to their lowest level in at least a de

> The latest data from the U.S. Border Patrol shows that last year, marijuana seizures along the southwest border tumbled to their lowest level in at least a decade. That does not mean there are less drugs being imported, just that less are being seized. I worked with the Border Patrol years ago and it was astounding how they tracked success: - When arrests increased, they celebrated that enforcement was working. - When arrests decreased, they celebrated that deterrence was working. Heads I win, tails you lose. While I'm in favor of legalization, you should take these numbers and the process that created them with a grain of salt..

pliny 11y ago
I get that measuring the effectiveness of enforcement is inherently difficult, but isn't the number of arrests made far away from the border an excellent proxy for how poorly border control is working? You can't isolate yourself from drugs manufactured in-state or from failures of other border patrol units (or successes of drug enforcement away from the border), but you also can't fuck with the stats.
- tamana 11y ago
  Fucking with stats has always a key aspect of law enforcement.
gregpilling 11y ago
Speaking of the US Border, it is way more porous than many people think. Here is a photo of the 2 strands of barbed wire that make up the border fence near Locheil Arizona. If you ride your dirt bike along the border there (I did), then you will find a few dirt roads that cross the border that look heavily used. I spent 8 hours down there and was not approached by any Border Patrol (Saw some from 100 feet away, but no contact) There is so much stuff crossing the border, in so many places. https://www.google.com/maps/@31.333054,-110.626566,3a,75y/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1s92944321!2e1!3e10!6s%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fproxy%2FwfYrxITpg9k7jdJyFNVk5R-VJ9jooe9tCPegs22ar3VBqeMoOf5uKEVhzSJ4-bmFb5P96lXvrt0Q9u9dInybQl5gCOoZKg%3Dw203-h152!7i3264!8i2448 https://www.google.com/maps/@31.333054,-110.626566,3a,75y/da...
- umanwizard 11y ago
  I think most people (at least from the Southwest) know about this; otherwise Donald Trump's desire to "build a wall" would be incoherent.
  - facetube 11y ago
    Donald Trump's desire to "build a wall" is incoherent.
    - cmurf 11y ago
      Donald Trump's incoherent.
      - rdtsc 11y ago
        He is coherent in the fantasy world of his supporters. And he has millions of them. And their fantasy is a possible reality soon. I laughed at Trump when he started to run for president. It is not so funny anymore, his odds have gone up.
        vidarh 11y ago
        If he wins, the next reasonable US president will be celebrated by the rest of the world with a lot more than a pre-emptive Nobel peace prize...
    - harshreality 11y ago
      The desire to "build a wall" is a reaction of locals along the border to the realities there, and that reaction diffuses through the rest of the population who aren't on the border but who see problems that they perceive (or are persuaded to perceive) might be solved by curtailing illegal immigration. They may be wrong about, or miscalculating, the ultimate consequences of a wall, but the perceived need for some kind of "wall" is coherent in an immediate sense. What do you think is incoherent? A plan to build some kind of physical wall (barrier), or a serious plan to keep people from crossing the border outside of the normal immigration process, or both?
matt_wulfeck 11y ago
That's true and a good point, but the article also quotes a Mexican grower who says the bulk price has come down about 50%. That's money right out of the cartels pockets.
- mirimir 11y ago
  It's money out of the grower's pockets, for sure. But the cartels, they'll just focus on other products.
  - klibertp 11y ago
    Pivoting doesn't come without any cost, focusing on other products means large investments in infrastructure, which was earlier set up for marihuana and became unprofitable. However you want to look at it, it's a loss for the cartels in the short term. In the long term, it depends on what they decide to focus on; hopefully, we'll legalize that next thing before the cartels start making a huge profit from it.
  - redblacktree 11y ago
    Yeah, but extortion and kidnapping don't scale as well as the drug trade does.
jeffdavis 11y ago
The best numbers to use are the prices, which they also cite. Granted, there are still multiple factors at work and you need to take several measurements.
tanv_nadkarni 11y ago
All government programs tend to work like that. Recession ? Private players to be blamed and government needs to act. Economic boom ? Government programs caused that boom. The legalization of marijuana is a much bigger battle. We will not get all the benefits of the free market unless government regulations are substantially reduced. If you cant buy Marijuana in Target or Wallmart it probably wont suffice.
- ubernostrum 11y ago
  All government programs tend to work like that. Recession ? Private players to be blamed and government needs to act. Economic boom ? Government programs caused that boom. Recession? Poor private companies groaning under the massive burden of big-government regulation, and idiotic government "interventions" in the market are to blame! Economic boom? The miracle of the free market succeeding in spite of all obstacles! Hail the market! Down with big government! The difference, of course, is that I don't know anyone who actually takes the "government is always the solution" line, but I do know plenty of people who take the "government is always the problem" line. So, um, nice straw man you've go there.
  - sleepychu 11y ago
    I think they meant, that's how all government programmes measure what they've done.
  - zo1 11y ago
    >"The difference, of course, is that I don't know anyone who actually takes the "government is always the solution" line, but I do know plenty of people who take the "government is always the problem" line. So, um, nice straw man you've go there." I take it you haven't had much debate around the concept of a free-society without government. You bring that one out, and suddenly everyone is a statist that thinks that "government is always the solution", for every problem imaginable. Heck, I'm an anarcho-capitalist and even I think government should be the solution to every problem. That is, as long as I'm paying taxes. While that's the case they better well be using my tax contributions to solving those damn problems, even if government isn't the "best" solution for them.

pliny 11y ago

I get that measuring the effectiveness of enforcement is inherently difficult, but isn't the number of arrests made far away from the border an excellent proxy for how poorly border control is working? You can't isolate yourself from drugs manufactured in-state or from failures of other border patrol units (or successes of drug enforcement away from the border), but you also can't fuck with the stats.

tamana 11y ago
Fucking with stats has always a key aspect of law enforcement.

gregpilling 11y ago

Speaking of the US Border, it is way more porous than many people think. Here is a photo of the 2 strands of barbed wire that make up the border fence near Locheil Arizona. If you ride your dirt bike along the border there (I did), then you will find a few dirt roads that cross the border that look heavily used. I spent 8 hours down there and was not approached by any Border Patrol (Saw some from 100 feet away, but no contact) There is so much stuff crossing the border, in so many places. https://www.google.com/maps/@31.333054,-110.626566,3a,75y/data=!3m8!1e2!3m6!1s92944321!2e1!3e10!6s%2F%2Flh5.googleusercontent.com%2Fproxy%2FwfYrxITpg9k7jdJyFNVk5R-VJ9jooe9tCPegs22ar3VBqeMoOf5uKEVhzSJ4-bmFb5P96lXvrt0Q9u9dInybQl5gCOoZKg%3Dw203-h152!7i3264!8i2448 https://www.google.com/maps/@31.333054,-110.626566,3a,75y/da...

umanwizard 11y ago
I think most people (at least from the Southwest) know about this; otherwise Donald Trump's desire to "build a wall" would be incoherent.
- facetube 11y ago
  Donald Trump's desire to "build a wall" is incoherent.
  - cmurf 11y ago
    Donald Trump's incoherent.
    - rdtsc 11y ago
      He is coherent in the fantasy world of his supporters. And he has millions of them. And their fantasy is a possible reality soon. I laughed at Trump when he started to run for president. It is not so funny anymore, his odds have gone up.
      - vidarh 11y ago
        If he wins, the next reasonable US president will be celebrated by the rest of the world with a lot more than a pre-emptive Nobel peace prize...
  - harshreality 11y ago
    The desire to "build a wall" is a reaction of locals along the border to the realities there, and that reaction diffuses through the rest of the population who aren't on the border but who see problems that they perceive (or are persuaded to perceive) might be solved by curtailing illegal immigration. They may be wrong about, or miscalculating, the ultimate consequences of a wall, but the perceived need for some kind of "wall" is coherent in an immediate sense. What do you think is incoherent? A plan to build some kind of physical wall (barrier), or a serious plan to keep people from crossing the border outside of the normal immigration process, or both?

matt_wulfeck 11y ago

That's true and a good point, but the article also quotes a Mexican grower who says the bulk price has come down about 50%. That's money right out of the cartels pockets.

mirimir 11y ago
It's money out of the grower's pockets, for sure. But the cartels, they'll just focus on other products.
- klibertp 11y ago
  Pivoting doesn't come without any cost, focusing on other products means large investments in infrastructure, which was earlier set up for marihuana and became unprofitable. However you want to look at it, it's a loss for the cartels in the short term. In the long term, it depends on what they decide to focus on; hopefully, we'll legalize that next thing before the cartels start making a huge profit from it.
- redblacktree 11y ago
  Yeah, but extortion and kidnapping don't scale as well as the drug trade does.

jeffdavis 11y ago

The best numbers to use are the prices, which they also cite. Granted, there are still multiple factors at work and you need to take several measurements.

tanv_nadkarni 11y ago

All government programs tend to work like that. Recession ? Private players to be blamed and government needs to act. Economic boom ? Government programs caused that boom. The legalization of marijuana is a much bigger battle. We will not get all the benefits of the free market unless government regulations are substantially reduced. If you cant buy Marijuana in Target or Wallmart it probably wont suffice.

ubernostrum 11y ago
All government programs tend to work like that. Recession ? Private players to be blamed and government needs to act. Economic boom ? Government programs caused that boom. Recession? Poor private companies groaning under the massive burden of big-government regulation, and idiotic government "interventions" in the market are to blame! Economic boom? The miracle of the free market succeeding in spite of all obstacles! Hail the market! Down with big government! The difference, of course, is that I don't know anyone who actually takes the "government is always the solution" line, but I do know plenty of people who take the "government is always the problem" line. So, um, nice straw man you've go there.
- sleepychu 11y ago
  I think they meant, that's how all government programmes measure what they've done.
- zo1 11y ago
  >"The difference, of course, is that I don't know anyone who actually takes the "government is always the solution" line, but I do know plenty of people who take the "government is always the problem" line. So, um, nice straw man you've go there." I take it you haven't had much debate around the concept of a free-society without government. You bring that one out, and suddenly everyone is a statist that thinks that "government is always the solution", for every problem imaginable. Heck, I'm an anarcho-capitalist and even I think government should be the solution to every problem. That is, as long as I'm paying taxes. While that's the case they better well be using my tax contributions to solving those damn problems, even if government isn't the "best" solution for them.