5 ms·
That's circular reasoning: right now speed is a figure of merit because that's how the game has been designed. I'm suggesting to change the game rules. I don't
by revelation 11y ago
That's circular reasoning: right now speed is a figure of merit because that's how the game has been designed. I'm suggesting to change the game rules.
I don't mean to get rid of automatic market making, I'm saying the exchange could just move to a system where it checkpoints every 10ms or whatever, still much faster than humans can blink, but no detriment to the algorithms. Then everyone has 10ms to come up with orders that make sense in the current market situation, instead of the ridiculous timing game.
- harryh 11y agoYou don't actually have 10ms to act in the scenario you describe. Because there is new information entering the world at all times, you would want to wait until the last possible microsecond before the end of the 10ms window before entering any bids. The window does nothing to remove the need for speed. The world is a continuous system. No matter how hard you try you can't force it to be discrete. (There are other problems in your proposed scenario to having to do with mismatched buy vs sell volume, but we'll ignore those for now.)
- true_religion 11y agoWhat new information? I think the above poster meant to imply that the 10ms delay would cover all market transactions, so if you put in an order now, then no one knows it till the next 10ms stop post. Essentially its buffering all the data then releasing it at once, so it's not a truly continuous system anymore.
- harryh 11y ago> What new information? Stuff that happens in the real world. The stuff that all security prices are eventually based on. It's not a closed system you know?
- true_religion 11y agoAh, that's why I wanted an example. Your answer is fairly obvious, but it's pretty absolute too so there's no way to ask questions like "is this information actually going to affect the bid size or price of a bidder?" or "is this event important but infrequent, like quarterly reporting?" For example, infrequent important events will result in a race for people to submit at the last microsecond, but because they're infrequent 99% of the time the 10ms buffering will effectively change the behaviour of market participants.
- mrchicity 11y agoAt the level of a penny, which is what the minimum price change is on most US stocks, almost anything can affect a sophisticated market-maker or proprietary trader's pricing: information in the stock's own order book, the price of related securities globally like the same stock trading in foreign markets, prices of correlated stocks, index futures prices around the world, his or her risk exposure in that stock and others in a portfolio, foreign exchange and interest rate market shifts, news feeds, sentiment analysis of online sources like twitter, company exposure to oil or other commodity price changes, etc. etc.
- lightcatcher 11y ago> What new information? Trades occurring at other locations. Even if the other location are operating in discretized time, there's going to be variability in how fast different market participants can transmit information from one location to another. From Wolfram Alpha, Tokyo to NYC is 36ms at speed of light in vacuum and 51ms at speed of light in fiber, so someone with a faster network could be multiple discretized ticks ahead.
- rqebmm 11y agoExactly. Instead of the game being "who communicates fastest" it would be "who can time the sample rate the best"
- CyberDildonics 11y agoThere are plenty of solutions to that but it wouldn't even be a problem if exchanges weren't -selling their order flow before the trades happen-
- harryh 11y agoBy selling order flow brokers have reduced your commissions significantly (and all the way to zero in the case of robinhood.com). This is good for you, not bad.
- kasey_junk 11y agoCan you give an example of an exchange that sells the order flow before it happens? Are you perhaps confusing exchange in this case with a broker?
- revelation 11y agoThat's silly, because it's an universal truth. Yet they still close the exchange and the dumb traders go home to sleep. You can design the rules to optimize for one thing or another, continuous world notwithstanding. I'm suggesting a way to optimize for something more useful.
- harryh 11y agoAnd I'm saying that your optimization wouldn't accomplish any goals that you might have.
- forrestthewoods 11y agoLet's say that happens. The system checkpoints and everyone orders off those checkpoints. What changes? What's the end result? How do normal people or society benefit? What would have to happen for the change to be declared a success. Conversely, what would have to happen for the change to be declared a failure?
- CyberDildonics 11y agoThe benefit? People don't have their order front runned by algorithm which will sell it back to them at a slightly higher price, skimming money off the top to no one's benefit.
- tptacek 11y agoCan you explain in as much detail as possible exactly how algorithms are front-running people's orders? Can you do it with an example of a specific kind of order, preferably down to where exactly the order is being placed? Then we can dig into the specifics and evaluate the claim being made here.
- tptacek 11y agoYou've misunderstood what I'm saying. I agree with you: timescales far below anything that provide any meaningful social value are an intrinsic figure of merit (usual definition: "often arbitrary-seeming number people compete over") of the market microstructure we have now. I'm not saying the markets must function this way, only that they do, and it's not evidence of a giant conspiracy or grift that they do. The rest of my comment suggests that while we could potentially quantize the markets, it doesn't seem like we have much to win from doing that, and, further, that it's likely that the problems we're trying to solve by doing that would persist.