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This page contains many pleasantly-made visualizations, which I always like. The editorial content is a little slim to my tastes. For instance, I have a slightl

This page contains many pleasantly-made visualizations, which I always like. The editorial content is a little slim to my tastes. For instance, I have a slightly hard time looking at a graph indicating a mere 7% GDP growth and concluding that an economy is in need of fixing. In a related fashion, I'm a bit surprised that there is not a dedicated graphic to some sort of private debt. Perhaps this information is simply not known well enough. But it's my [admittedly quite limited] understanding that one of the problems the Chinese economy will soon have to face is rising reliance on individual debt for wealth generation.

sandworm101 11y ago
7% would be fine elsewhere, but China needs more. The deal with the general population is that, in exchange for stalled political progression, the people shall be allowed economic progress. Should the later break down, the population may/will become difficult to rule. Anything even hinting at revolution may see the Chinese economy do far more than stall. So china's 10% goal isn't so much an economic but a political necessity.
deleted 11y ago
[deleted]
- Mikeb85 11y ago
  No one believes that China's in a recession, not even the most sceptical of western observers.
adventured 11y ago
The problem is, essentially nobody credible on China believes they're actually growing at 7%. Their imports and exports have declined dramatically as of late. Their manufacturing sector is contracting, with millions of people set to be fired across several major industries such as steel and coal. Their services sector is barely expanding. Capital outflows are of epic scale. Their stock market has crashed by ~50% and is lower than it was five years ago. 7% is basically impossible given that data, and those are government figures. Where is that vast growth supposedly coming from while most of the economy is contracting? Going by China's history on economic data (a statement which is not excusing any other nation on bad data accuracy), the real data is likely even worse. No chance they're growing anywhere near 7%. Given their behavior and the government figures alone, I'd bet on their economy being closer to recession than not.
Mikeb85 11y ago
While China has a lot of corporate debt, household debt is actually far less than in the US or Canada. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/households-debt-to-gdp http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/households-debt-to-gdp http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/households-debt-to-gdp http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/households-deb... http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/households-debt-to-gdp http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/households-debt-to-gd...
- adventured 11y ago
  They don't just have a lot of corporate debt, they have a vast amount of muni debt and shadow debt. Their total debt to GDP ratio exceeds that of the US [1], and it's still expanding rapidly. Their non-financial corporate + financial institution debt is now roughly twice that of the US. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-08/china-s-very-high-mountain-of-debt http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-08/china-s-ve...
  - Mikeb85 11y ago
    So, according to your link, Chinese 'total' debt is about on par with the rest of the world? And this is cause for extra concern? Despite the fact they have very low household and relatively low government debt, in a fast-growing economy? South Korea's 'total' debt is higher with slower growth. Yet no one is predicting their collapse...
    - adventured 11y ago
      The reason it's cause for extra concern is two fold. First, their accumulation has been extraordinarily rapid. A pace the likes of which the world has never seen before. Second, it's still climbing rapidly. If you combine these elements with: the command economy approach; the likelihood that their debt is even higher due to shadow debt; that the government is making the wrong choice and is propping up the mess ala Japan's mistake with zombies; and that all of their other economic data is heading south as they're continuing the debt accumulation (including a rapid bleed-off of foreign reserves, half of which they can't use anyway) - the sum picture you get is economically frightening and very unstable compared to the debt picture in eg Australia, the US, or Germany. Finally, to make matters a lot worse, China still has a billion very poor people and almost no social safety net. How is China going to deal with their rapidly aging population (which will demand far greater total care expense with each passing year), while already being more in debt than other developed nations?
rpgmaker 11y ago
> The editorial content is a little slim to my tastes. Usually the "editorial content" is just filled generic information not necessarily related to the topic at hand. Given the choice I'd much rather a slimmed down article filled with just the relevant information.
kazinator 11y ago
A 4850 × 2879 wide raster image for a simple graph could be a "pleasant visualization" if transferred to the side of train, or a billboard.

sandworm101 11y ago

7% would be fine elsewhere, but China needs more. The deal with the general population is that, in exchange for stalled political progression, the people shall be allowed economic progress. Should the later break down, the population may/will become difficult to rule. Anything even hinting at revolution may see the Chinese economy do far more than stall. So china's 10% goal isn't so much an economic but a political necessity.

deleted 11y ago

[deleted]

Mikeb85 11y ago
No one believes that China's in a recession, not even the most sceptical of western observers.

adventured 11y ago

The problem is, essentially nobody credible on China believes they're actually growing at 7%. Their imports and exports have declined dramatically as of late. Their manufacturing sector is contracting, with millions of people set to be fired across several major industries such as steel and coal. Their services sector is barely expanding. Capital outflows are of epic scale. Their stock market has crashed by ~50% and is lower than it was five years ago. 7% is basically impossible given that data, and those are government figures. Where is that vast growth supposedly coming from while most of the economy is contracting? Going by China's history on economic data (a statement which is not excusing any other nation on bad data accuracy), the real data is likely even worse. No chance they're growing anywhere near 7%. Given their behavior and the government figures alone, I'd bet on their economy being closer to recession than not.

Mikeb85 11y ago

While China has a lot of corporate debt, household debt is actually far less than in the US or Canada. http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/households-debt-to-gdp http://www.tradingeconomics.com/china/households-debt-to-gdp http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/households-debt-to-gdp http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/households-deb... http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/households-debt-to-gdp http://www.tradingeconomics.com/canada/households-debt-to-gd...

adventured 11y ago
They don't just have a lot of corporate debt, they have a vast amount of muni debt and shadow debt. Their total debt to GDP ratio exceeds that of the US [1], and it's still expanding rapidly. Their non-financial corporate + financial institution debt is now roughly twice that of the US. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-08/china-s-very-high-mountain-of-debt http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-08/china-s-ve...
- Mikeb85 11y ago
  So, according to your link, Chinese 'total' debt is about on par with the rest of the world? And this is cause for extra concern? Despite the fact they have very low household and relatively low government debt, in a fast-growing economy? South Korea's 'total' debt is higher with slower growth. Yet no one is predicting their collapse...
  - adventured 11y ago
    The reason it's cause for extra concern is two fold. First, their accumulation has been extraordinarily rapid. A pace the likes of which the world has never seen before. Second, it's still climbing rapidly. If you combine these elements with: the command economy approach; the likelihood that their debt is even higher due to shadow debt; that the government is making the wrong choice and is propping up the mess ala Japan's mistake with zombies; and that all of their other economic data is heading south as they're continuing the debt accumulation (including a rapid bleed-off of foreign reserves, half of which they can't use anyway) - the sum picture you get is economically frightening and very unstable compared to the debt picture in eg Australia, the US, or Germany. Finally, to make matters a lot worse, China still has a billion very poor people and almost no social safety net. How is China going to deal with their rapidly aging population (which will demand far greater total care expense with each passing year), while already being more in debt than other developed nations?

rpgmaker 11y ago

> The editorial content is a little slim to my tastes. Usually the "editorial content" is just filled generic information not necessarily related to the topic at hand. Given the choice I'd much rather a slimmed down article filled with just the relevant information.

kazinator 11y ago

A 4850 × 2879 wide raster image for a simple graph could be a "pleasant visualization" if transferred to the side of train, or a billboard.