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I'm guaranteeing you supply of labor is not the dominant factor in China's economic climate. The rigged economics of their core competencies has a much larger i
by zanny 11y ago
I'm guaranteeing you supply of labor is not the dominant factor in China's economic climate. The rigged economics of their core competencies has a much larger impact than the availability of cheap workers - labor markets can adjust seamlessly and effectively to less available labor by having the most valuable work done and less valuable work gets delayed. To some degree you have a cutoff valuation where less valuable work is not worth doing - in the west we call it minimum wage. I highly doubt China's economy is anywhere near that threshold yet.
- ucaetano 11y agoI think parent wasn't saying that supply of labor is the problem now, but that it will be in the future. If thinks are looking bad now, imagine when dependency ratio increases significantly. It's not just about absolute supply of labor, but also about how much of that labor is being used towards supporting old and young people.
- ZoeZoeBee 11y agoThanks, I'm often amazed how many people like zanny are incapable of seeing the likely future for societies who's economic and social models are dependent upon constant expansion. At this point in time it is simply too late for most of the EU and Asian nations, it is not a question of if but how the population will react when things begin to unravel. The Demographics of said nation's give us a very good idea of when.
- imtringued 11y agoThey already are heavily investing in robots to counteract this.
- ucaetano 11y agoYou're still misunderstanding this point. It ins't about labor availability, but dependency ratio (people working vs. people not working).
- zanny 11y agoThis ratio is increasing regardless of mean population age. Automation is making even 20 year old prime-of-their-life human labor gradually obsolete.
- ucaetano 11y agoI wasn't clear. Dependency ratio doesn't depend on unemployment, but on people who CAN work vs. people who CAN'T work (elderly, young, sick, disabled, etc.).
- rm_-rf_slash 11y agoThis problem isn't about using robots to refine steel or manufacture iPhones, or have workers magically move up the value stack, it's a question of who will take care of the legions of elderly Chinese. Throw in the fact that China lacks a serious social safety net and the spice of nobody wanting to be an elderly care worker, and you have a full on crises on your hands.