4 ms·

> 70% of the population is under 30 I don't see this ending well, there is no way this leads to a sustainable balanced system.

by n0us 11y ago

eudox 11y ago
It gets worse, >90 percent of government revenues are from oil; 70 percent of working Saudis are employed by the government I don't think they've worked out the problem of stable succession either, given that every change in King has been from a brother to another[0], rather than to a son. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_of_Saudi_Arabia#Kings_of_Saudi_Arabia_.281932.E2.80.93present.29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_of_Saudi_Arabia#Kings_of_...
- objclxt 11y ago
  Succession is especially complicated since the King may take any number of wives, meaning there are a lot of brothers in line.
  - pmalynin 11y ago
    2006 decree makes it such that next King is elected by a counsel of Princes.
- n0us 11y ago
  The Cost of Rights http://www.amazon.com/The-Cost-Rights-Liberty-Depends/dp/0393320332 http://www.amazon.com/The-Cost-Rights-Liberty-Depends/dp/039... is an interesting read on this topic. It basically talks about how taxes are necessary and these movements to eliminate taxes completely are completely off base. I would argue that a sufficiently extreme distribution of wealth makes democracy impossible and the "rights" that the Saudis afford their people are not "rights" at all in any meaningful sense but rather just a way of placating people so they can hold onto control of the oil.
- airplane 11y ago
  A possible fix is to start investing, but it may be too late. If I remember correctly I think investing for profit is a gray area in Islam, but Kuwait did it and if I remember correctly they use to have more returns from their investments then they did on oil and paid every citizen a base salary from it (until Saddam invaded and they had to cash out).
  - digi_owl 11y ago
    Best i recall, there is some issues with lending and interest. After all ol' Muhammad was a merchant by trade...
    - simplect 11y ago
      Trade and investing is permissible in Islam. However interest and derivative financial instruments are strictly prohibited for various reasons, one of which is trying to avoid "renters' economy.
- madengr 11y ago
  Brother, son, it's all the same with inbreeding to maintain Saudi Royal heredity.
yongjik 11y ago
Could someone explain why this is a problem? When 25% of Japan is over 65, nobody says it's good.
- SilasX 11y ago
  Good question. I think the logic is that the most dangerous demographic is twenty something males. If a revolution or riot will happen, it will happen when this group is unhappy. So if they dominate the population in times of severe economic trouble, it's a recipe for big change.
- Kluny 11y ago
  Just cause of the imbalance, I guess. Same problem everywhere in the middle east - you have all these young, smart, energetic people who want to start families and careers, but there are no opportunities available to them. So they get mad and occasionally violent. And I don't blame them, either.
  - digi_owl 11y ago
    Never mind the strong religious undercurrent. The whole situation brings to mind the 30 year war...
- WhoBeI 11y ago
  You want a nice even spread to make sure that one generation of workers can train, and in some way pay, for the other. The worse your education system the more dependent on the older generation you are. In Japan I think the problem is a slow rate of birth. So the fear is that the percentage of the population above 65 will increase until it breaks the economy.
  - induscreep 11y ago
    From what I know, all the blue collar labor is imported, and the Saudis don't work that much (or at all?). So, there is no worry of generations of workers getting trained etc.
- 11y ago
adventured 11y ago
Saudi Arabia's population growth curve has been staggering. 1960-1980: 4m to 10m people 1980-2015: 10m to 30m people 650% increase in 55 years. UAE 11000%, Kuwait 1250%, Oman 570%, Qatar 4800% and Jordan 680% have seen similarly massive increases. (UAE is difficult to calculate due to political changes, either way it's a lot) Syria 410%, Yemen 400%, Iraq 360%, Pakistan 300%, and Iran 250% have boomed to a slightly lesser extent as well. Population growth by comparison over that time: Australia 135%, Canada 100%, US 77%, France 47%, Japan 38%, UK 23%, Italy 20%, Germany 10% Kenya 450%, Sudan 420%, Tanzania 400%, DR Congo 350%, Ethiopia 330%, Somalia 290%, Nigeria 280%, South Africa 210%, Egypt 200% Malaysia 280%, Philippines 275%, Bangladesh 200%, Nepal 200%, Indonesia 185%, India 180%, Vietnam 165%, Myanmar 165%, Thailand 150%, China 100%, South Korea 100% Venezuela 300%, Ecuador 250%, Mexico 220%, Dominican Republic 215%, Peru 200%, Colombia 200%, Brazil 175%, Argentina 105%, Cuba 60%

> 70% of the population is under 30 I don't see this ending well, there is no way this leads to a sustainable balanced system.

by n0us 11y ago

> 70% of the population is under 30 I don't see this ending well, there is no way this leads to a sustainable balanced system.

eudox 11y ago

It gets worse, >90 percent of government revenues are from oil; 70 percent of working Saudis are employed by the government I don't think they've worked out the problem of stable succession either, given that every change in King has been from a brother to another[0], rather than to a son. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_of_Saudi_Arabia#Kings_of_Saudi_Arabia_.281932.E2.80.93present.29 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_of_Saudi_Arabia#Kings_of_...

objclxt 11y ago
Succession is especially complicated since the King may take any number of wives, meaning there are a lot of brothers in line.
- pmalynin 11y ago
  2006 decree makes it such that next King is elected by a counsel of Princes.
n0us 11y ago
The Cost of Rights http://www.amazon.com/The-Cost-Rights-Liberty-Depends/dp/0393320332 http://www.amazon.com/The-Cost-Rights-Liberty-Depends/dp/039... is an interesting read on this topic. It basically talks about how taxes are necessary and these movements to eliminate taxes completely are completely off base. I would argue that a sufficiently extreme distribution of wealth makes democracy impossible and the "rights" that the Saudis afford their people are not "rights" at all in any meaningful sense but rather just a way of placating people so they can hold onto control of the oil.
airplane 11y ago
A possible fix is to start investing, but it may be too late. If I remember correctly I think investing for profit is a gray area in Islam, but Kuwait did it and if I remember correctly they use to have more returns from their investments then they did on oil and paid every citizen a base salary from it (until Saddam invaded and they had to cash out).
- digi_owl 11y ago
  Best i recall, there is some issues with lending and interest. After all ol' Muhammad was a merchant by trade...
  - simplect 11y ago
    Trade and investing is permissible in Islam. However interest and derivative financial instruments are strictly prohibited for various reasons, one of which is trying to avoid "renters' economy.
madengr 11y ago
Brother, son, it's all the same with inbreeding to maintain Saudi Royal heredity.

yongjik 11y ago

Could someone explain why this is a problem? When 25% of Japan is over 65, nobody says it's good.

SilasX 11y ago
Good question. I think the logic is that the most dangerous demographic is twenty something males. If a revolution or riot will happen, it will happen when this group is unhappy. So if they dominate the population in times of severe economic trouble, it's a recipe for big change.
Kluny 11y ago
Just cause of the imbalance, I guess. Same problem everywhere in the middle east - you have all these young, smart, energetic people who want to start families and careers, but there are no opportunities available to them. So they get mad and occasionally violent. And I don't blame them, either.
- digi_owl 11y ago
  Never mind the strong religious undercurrent. The whole situation brings to mind the 30 year war...
WhoBeI 11y ago
You want a nice even spread to make sure that one generation of workers can train, and in some way pay, for the other. The worse your education system the more dependent on the older generation you are. In Japan I think the problem is a slow rate of birth. So the fear is that the percentage of the population above 65 will increase until it breaks the economy.
- induscreep 11y ago
  From what I know, all the blue collar labor is imported, and the Saudis don't work that much (or at all?). So, there is no worry of generations of workers getting trained etc.
11y ago

adventured 11y ago

Saudi Arabia's population growth curve has been staggering. 1960-1980: 4m to 10m people 1980-2015: 10m to 30m people 650% increase in 55 years. UAE 11000%, Kuwait 1250%, Oman 570%, Qatar 4800% and Jordan 680% have seen similarly massive increases. (UAE is difficult to calculate due to political changes, either way it's a lot) Syria 410%, Yemen 400%, Iraq 360%, Pakistan 300%, and Iran 250% have boomed to a slightly lesser extent as well. Population growth by comparison over that time: Australia 135%, Canada 100%, US 77%, France 47%, Japan 38%, UK 23%, Italy 20%, Germany 10% Kenya 450%, Sudan 420%, Tanzania 400%, DR Congo 350%, Ethiopia 330%, Somalia 290%, Nigeria 280%, South Africa 210%, Egypt 200% Malaysia 280%, Philippines 275%, Bangladesh 200%, Nepal 200%, Indonesia 185%, India 180%, Vietnam 165%, Myanmar 165%, Thailand 150%, China 100%, South Korea 100% Venezuela 300%, Ecuador 250%, Mexico 220%, Dominican Republic 215%, Peru 200%, Colombia 200%, Brazil 175%, Argentina 105%, Cuba 60%