7 ms·
huge corrections under way, guarantee this is not the end, just the beginning. unicorn slaughter. upside: expect house prices in the SF bay area to become mor
by pinaceae 11y ago
huge corrections under way, guarantee this is not the end, just the beginning.
unicorn slaughter.
upside:
expect house prices in the SF bay area to become more affordable.
- ap22213 11y agoDoubtful - if global investors aren't putting their money into stocks, they'll just continue to buy up real estate.
- pinaceae 11y agoOnce you take the crazy money out of the equation, the SF Bay Area is not that appealing as a pure real estate play.
- 9tx 11y agoWhys that? Year round awesome weather not good enough?
- pc86 11y agoYou've never been to San Francisco, have you?
- azinman2 11y agoRussians and Chinese are a major contributor, and they're not so affected by SV cycles.
- jonknee 11y agoIf you think SV is bad, check out the recent returns out of Russia and China!
- sshanky 11y agoWhat's SV?
- dpim 11y agosilicon valley
- tosseraccount 11y agoSuddenly Vulnerable.
- refurb 11y agoI don't know about SV, but foreign investment is pretty dam low in Victoria, BC, which could be used as a proxy for Vancouver. 97.8% were domestic buyers.[1] It's not foreign buyers driving up the market in Vancouver, it's Canadians will to put themselves into serious debt in order to buy a house. [1]http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/31/of-debt-data/ http://www.greaterfool.ca/2016/01/31/of-debt-data/
- seanmcdirmid 11y agoWhat? No, the Chinese are still heavily interested in the Vancouver market. Since when is small Victoria a proxy for big Vancouver?
- msie 11y agoWell, it's been reported that foreign buyers are invested in a lot of the more expensive properties (> $3 million) in certain regions, but a lot of Canadians are STILL buying Vancouver properties. There's been a lot of concern over Canadians getting in over their heads with mortgages. It also doesn't help that Vancouver has crappy wages.
- refurb 11y agoWell the problem is, Victoria is the only city in Canada that collects citizenship information in house sales. It's the only data we have. Victoria isn't that far from Vancouver, but prices have gone through the roof, similar to what Vancouver has experienced.
- mahyarm 11y agoBut what induces the higher market? You get echo effects from places like Vancouver. Wealthy foreign buyers use high end real estate as a bank account increase the prices of top of the line housing significantly. Wealthier natives (Dentists?), now priced out of the highest end go down the scale and start purchasing lower end stuff with more money, increasing the price for everyone in a domino effect. Government, not wanting the housing market to go down, create laws to allow subprime mortgage lending and buyers buy houses without real limits on price, and the middle class can now keep up with the price boom.
- mahyarm 11y agoTell that to Vancouver, BC :(
- bbcbasic 11y agoIt will be after the next ... lets call it business cycle.
- jonknee 11y agoWith such rose colored glasses you should become a real estate agent. Always a good time to buy!
- dageshi 11y agoI'm not so sure about that, a lot of the conditions previously supporting real estate investment have given way. Oil's down, China is volatile, interest rates have risen, arguably you could say the trend could reverse due to people who previously bought as investments needing their money back.
- ap22213 11y agoThat's assuming that they need their money back. The way I understand it is that there's a glut of money, and the rich are just piling it up and moving it around to where ever the best return seems to be.
- tomp 11y ago> upside: expect house prices in the SF bay area to become more affordable. Until the Chinese peg falls, I don't think you can. I mean, aren't SF house prices driver by Chinese investors about as much as by domestic Twitter millionaires?
- rhino369 11y agoIt's probably supported by both. But if prices fall, that could lead to Chinese abandoning the market and dropping prices further.
- rconti 11y agoit sure didn't dip much in 2008.
- tomcam 11y agoCorrect. Cash real estate purchases by Chinese nationals will continue to dwarf those of Silicon Valley employees.
- simulate 11y agoAre there any sources / links you can share on cash real estate purchases in SV or Bay Area? I'm interested in reading more about this and a preliminary search isn't yielding any recent news.
- collyw 11y agoThis sort of data would be interesting/ useful for any location. I was recently in Phuket where I was told property prices are dropping due to the Russian currency tanking, so many of the Russian owners are selling up. Knowing how much of an area is owned by certain foreigners would definitely be valuable knowledge.
- tootie 11y agoTableau and LinkedIn aren't exactly early-stage startups. They have pretty established businesses.
- pinaceae 11y agoAn established business should be self-sustaining, hence profitable. Tableau is not, LinkedIn P/E is north of 1000. But being profitable, that is just crazy talk.
- deadlycrayon 11y agoTrue, but the performance of your neighbors affects investors' attitudes in general.
- ljk 11y agoDoes this affect big companies like Alphabet/Amazon/FB/Microsoft, etc?
- itslennysfault 11y ago...but Tableau is in Seattle.
- walker7734 11y agoThe additional 18k people that Amazon apparently plans to hire will probably keep the Seattle market hot for the foreseeable future. Also, Chinese investors.
- frik 11y agoIt's the dot-com bubble all over again. Look at the NEWR stock chart, it looks like the dot-com burst in 2000-2001 compressed to a few months. It's happening a lot faster now, then it happened back then.