6 ms·

I hope to be wrong, but secrecy like this usually doesn't bode well. Best case, I'm expecting something like Segway or Apple Watch -- overhyped from secrecy, b

by rdl 11y ago

I hope to be wrong, but secrecy like this usually doesn't bode well. Best case, I'm expecting something like Segway or Apple Watch -- overhyped from secrecy, but legitimate, but not all that amazing. Middle case is something like Theranos; not overt fraud from the beginning, but the result of a lot of pivots and coverup. But most often it is outright bad. Short term practical or tactical secrecy, sure. And in some industries, probably not as bad a signal. But software-heavy hardware ecosystems aren't one of those. Outside of wars, Ultra or Manhattan just aren't that good a way to work. Why cut yourself off from the global community?

6stringmerc 11y ago
For a moment, I felt bad about having reservations about the prospects of ML - I've seen some neat public videos and announcements, but they all struck me as similar to a AAA videogame release from years ago, you know, "Not actual game footage" type stuff. Then I come here and see you mention something that popped into my head as a related case - the Segway - and I don't feel like I'm being overly negative. I grew up learning to deal with hype in part thanks to Saturday morning cartoon ads for action figures, so I'm trying to stay on a general "Wait-and-see" positive angle, but as time marches on, it's taxing on the patience.
defen 11y ago
"Interesting" blog post from the founder, too: http://www.magicleap.com/#/blog/atoms-not-included http://www.magicleap.com/#/blog/atoms-not-included
- xxxxxxxx 11y ago
  An "interesting" video on Youtube : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8J5BWL8oJY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8J5BWL8oJY
- kzhahou 11y ago
  I'm not sure I learned anything about them, but I do feel very centered now.
- aantix 11y ago
  From the blog post: >"We want you to feel empowered and connected to your friends and family and the world, in a way that feels much more natural than computing today." They've been setting up supply chains and manufacturing.. Maybe the first product is a next gen web cam.
fossuser 11y ago
Michael Abrash wrote article about why hard AR is unlikely any time soon. It's not only that you need low enough latency for the human visual system, but also the ability to draw black (which is an unsolved problem). I'd be surprised if Magic Leap was actually able to solve both of these problems in secret separated from the rest of the world. Secrecy - for this long seems bad. It's also not the Apple secrecy where you say nothing and then have a big reveal. Magic Leap has put out teaser trailers with no information and talked about their 'revolutionary' technology without details. That doesn't inspire confidence. I am surprised they're able to raise so much money though, but that's a mistake that's been made before. http://blogs.valvesoftware.com/abrash/why-you-wont-see-hard-ar-anytime-soon/ http://blogs.valvesoftware.com/abrash/why-you-wont-see-hard-...
- RangerScience 11y ago
  Disclosure: I work for Daqri No-one I've seen in the space is trying to do hard-AR. It's all transparent displays - us, Magic Leap, ODG, Hololens, etc.
- voodoomagicman 11y ago
  I think from the demos, it's pretty clear they won't be ale to 'draw black' - BUT - I think thats probably OK. Additive only AR could still be a really cool product, could still be widely adopted, be worth $5 billion, change the world, etc...
  - kaybe 11y ago
    Is it not possible to just use it in the dark for more serious stuff and use the background for black? Maybe it's too much of a limitation..
    - deleted 11y ago
      [deleted]
- squeaky-clean 11y ago
  I think it's funny how much science fiction inspires current technology, but our expectations for quality are so much higher for real products than their sci-fi counterparts. In fact, in sci-fi advanced technology is often made inferior to be more relatable to current viewers/readers. For example, the holograms in Star Wars: They are made to look lower quality than the world around them, so it's visibly clear this is a digital projection (and not teleportation or a wormhole or something). But could you imagine if Apple released a holographic "FaceTime3D", only the holograms were monochromatic, filled with scanlines, visual noise and crappy audio quality? Reviewers would blast it, and a poor experience like that could even do more harm than good to the popularity of AR.
josh2600 11y ago
I was, at one time very recently, very deep in the VR/AR space. It seems to me that there will be quite a bit of time before people accept projectors pointed at their eyeballs (or however you want to explain Magic Leap's "digital light field" technology). $800M on $4.33B post- is a big chunk of a company, particularly one that does not have a working product demo yet. Maybe it'll all shake out positively, but I am of the opinion that this is not real. Lastly, all of Magic Leap's demos are very clearly not using wearable hardware (and also not being demonstrated using any kind of light-accurate reproduction). For example, metallic effects usually require "black" as a shade and things like the Lumus Optical lenses cannot reproduce such an effect (despite being basically the cutting edge of lightfield reproduction). In short, I am bearish on Magic Leap. Also, I am super confused as to why Magic Leap is operating their own silicon fab... That seems crazy to me. Edit: Fixed the $'s from VC-land.
- mbesto 11y ago
  PS - According to Pitchbook, they did $827M on $3.5B pre, $4.33B post.
- RangerScience 11y ago
  The game video also shows "recoil" and other tactile effects that have to be acted.
- hughes 11y ago
  > all of Magic Leap's demos are very clearly not using wearable hardware This was pretty clear even their demo from Oct 2015, despite the caption "Shot directly through Magic Leap Technology".
  - andygates 11y ago
    ...attached to an optics table, cabled to a dedicated processor and power supply, betcha. It's not lying, it's just marketing and prototypes.
- Udik 11y ago
  There is some kind of irony in the fact that an augmented reality company seems so successful in presenting investors with an image that nobody else can see. > Maybe it'll all shake out positively, but I am of the opinion that this is not real. But after all, isn't that the whole point of it? :) I wonder what kind of stuff they managed to project in the eyeballs of the VCs.
nilkn 11y ago
Slightly off topic, but I don't see how this is similar at all to the Apple Watch. What secrecy was there about it, other than the completely normal "secrecy" that every product undergoes when it hasn't even been announced yet? Apple was extremely forthcoming with details about it from the moment it was announced. They flooded the internet with concrete images, videos, and marketing material for months prior to its release. They had video tutorials on their site showing how to use mostly all of its features long before it was available in stores. More importantly, the Apple Watch was just the latest product from a long-established product company that was basically printing money from other products. It went through the same development cycle that all their other products go through. This is tremendously different from a brand new, completely unproven company crystallizing out of the dust, given form from hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars of investor money, and then being extremely secretive about their only product on which the entire company will be based. Magic Leap and Theranos fit that mold, but Apple most certainly does not. Furthermore, these promises of "mixed reality lightfields" make even Apple's marketing seem modest.
- samstave 11y ago
  Just curious; recall the speculation that apple would be making a Tablet the day the original iphone came out? And apple denied it? my question is "did they already know they were going to do a tablet, or was the tremendous hopes that consumers had that they would convince them to do so?" surely their product roadmap now is likely much longer term than it was then, I'm just curious about the original iPad creation
  - mercer 11y ago
    From what I understand their original plan was a tablet and, if anything, the iPhone was a bit of a trojan horse to get people to buy a 'mini-tablet' and experience its benefits while directly having a good use case (who doesn't need a phone?!).

by rdl 11y ago

6stringmerc 11y ago

For a moment, I felt bad about having reservations about the prospects of ML - I've seen some neat public videos and announcements, but they all struck me as similar to a AAA videogame release from years ago, you know, "Not actual game footage" type stuff. Then I come here and see you mention something that popped into my head as a related case - the Segway - and I don't feel like I'm being overly negative. I grew up learning to deal with hype in part thanks to Saturday morning cartoon ads for action figures, so I'm trying to stay on a general "Wait-and-see" positive angle, but as time marches on, it's taxing on the patience.

defen 11y ago

"Interesting" blog post from the founder, too: http://www.magicleap.com/#/blog/atoms-not-included http://www.magicleap.com/#/blog/atoms-not-included

xxxxxxxx 11y ago
An "interesting" video on Youtube : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8J5BWL8oJY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w8J5BWL8oJY
kzhahou 11y ago
I'm not sure I learned anything about them, but I do feel very centered now.
aantix 11y ago
From the blog post: >"We want you to feel empowered and connected to your friends and family and the world, in a way that feels much more natural than computing today." They've been setting up supply chains and manufacturing.. Maybe the first product is a next gen web cam.

fossuser 11y ago

Michael Abrash wrote article about why hard AR is unlikely any time soon. It's not only that you need low enough latency for the human visual system, but also the ability to draw black (which is an unsolved problem). I'd be surprised if Magic Leap was actually able to solve both of these problems in secret separated from the rest of the world. Secrecy - for this long seems bad. It's also not the Apple secrecy where you say nothing and then have a big reveal. Magic Leap has put out teaser trailers with no information and talked about their 'revolutionary' technology without details. That doesn't inspire confidence. I am surprised they're able to raise so much money though, but that's a mistake that's been made before. http://blogs.valvesoftware.com/abrash/why-you-wont-see-hard-ar-anytime-soon/ http://blogs.valvesoftware.com/abrash/why-you-wont-see-hard-...

RangerScience 11y ago
Disclosure: I work for Daqri No-one I've seen in the space is trying to do hard-AR. It's all transparent displays - us, Magic Leap, ODG, Hololens, etc.
voodoomagicman 11y ago
I think from the demos, it's pretty clear they won't be ale to 'draw black' - BUT - I think thats probably OK. Additive only AR could still be a really cool product, could still be widely adopted, be worth $5 billion, change the world, etc...
- kaybe 11y ago
  Is it not possible to just use it in the dark for more serious stuff and use the background for black? Maybe it's too much of a limitation..
  - deleted 11y ago
    [deleted]
squeaky-clean 11y ago
I think it's funny how much science fiction inspires current technology, but our expectations for quality are so much higher for real products than their sci-fi counterparts. In fact, in sci-fi advanced technology is often made inferior to be more relatable to current viewers/readers. For example, the holograms in Star Wars: They are made to look lower quality than the world around them, so it's visibly clear this is a digital projection (and not teleportation or a wormhole or something). But could you imagine if Apple released a holographic "FaceTime3D", only the holograms were monochromatic, filled with scanlines, visual noise and crappy audio quality? Reviewers would blast it, and a poor experience like that could even do more harm than good to the popularity of AR.

josh2600 11y ago

I was, at one time very recently, very deep in the VR/AR space. It seems to me that there will be quite a bit of time before people accept projectors pointed at their eyeballs (or however you want to explain Magic Leap's "digital light field" technology). $800M on $4.33B post- is a big chunk of a company, particularly one that does not have a working product demo yet. Maybe it'll all shake out positively, but I am of the opinion that this is not real. Lastly, all of Magic Leap's demos are very clearly not using wearable hardware (and also not being demonstrated using any kind of light-accurate reproduction). For example, metallic effects usually require "black" as a shade and things like the Lumus Optical lenses cannot reproduce such an effect (despite being basically the cutting edge of lightfield reproduction). In short, I am bearish on Magic Leap. Also, I am super confused as to why Magic Leap is operating their own silicon fab... That seems crazy to me. Edit: Fixed the $'s from VC-land.

mbesto 11y ago
PS - According to Pitchbook, they did $827M on $3.5B pre, $4.33B post.
RangerScience 11y ago
The game video also shows "recoil" and other tactile effects that have to be acted.
hughes 11y ago
> all of Magic Leap's demos are very clearly not using wearable hardware This was pretty clear even their demo from Oct 2015, despite the caption "Shot directly through Magic Leap Technology".
- andygates 11y ago
  ...attached to an optics table, cabled to a dedicated processor and power supply, betcha. It's not lying, it's just marketing and prototypes.
Udik 11y ago
There is some kind of irony in the fact that an augmented reality company seems so successful in presenting investors with an image that nobody else can see. > Maybe it'll all shake out positively, but I am of the opinion that this is not real. But after all, isn't that the whole point of it? :) I wonder what kind of stuff they managed to project in the eyeballs of the VCs.

nilkn 11y ago

Slightly off topic, but I don't see how this is similar at all to the Apple Watch. What secrecy was there about it, other than the completely normal "secrecy" that every product undergoes when it hasn't even been announced yet? Apple was extremely forthcoming with details about it from the moment it was announced. They flooded the internet with concrete images, videos, and marketing material for months prior to its release. They had video tutorials on their site showing how to use mostly all of its features long before it was available in stores. More importantly, the Apple Watch was just the latest product from a long-established product company that was basically printing money from other products. It went through the same development cycle that all their other products go through. This is tremendously different from a brand new, completely unproven company crystallizing out of the dust, given form from hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars of investor money, and then being extremely secretive about their only product on which the entire company will be based. Magic Leap and Theranos fit that mold, but Apple most certainly does not. Furthermore, these promises of "mixed reality lightfields" make even Apple's marketing seem modest.

samstave 11y ago
Just curious; recall the speculation that apple would be making a Tablet the day the original iphone came out? And apple denied it? my question is "did they already know they were going to do a tablet, or was the tremendous hopes that consumers had that they would convince them to do so?" surely their product roadmap now is likely much longer term than it was then, I'm just curious about the original iPad creation
- mercer 11y ago
  From what I understand their original plan was a tablet and, if anything, the iPhone was a bit of a trojan horse to get people to buy a 'mini-tablet' and experience its benefits while directly having a good use case (who doesn't need a phone?!).